Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics

by James A. Stimson

Politics is a trial in which those in government - and those who aspire to serve - make proposals, debate alternatives, and pass laws. Then the jury of public opinion decides. It likes the proposals or actions or it does not. It trusts the actors or it doesn't. It moves, always at the margin, and then those who benefit from the movement are declared winners. This book is about that public opinion response. Its most basic premise is that although public opinion rarely matters in a democracy, public opinion change is the exception. Public opinion rarely matters because the public rarely cares enough to act on its concerns or preferences. Change happens only when the threshold of normal public inattention is crossed. When public opinion changes, governments rise or fall, elections are won or lost, and old realities give way to new demands.

Genres: Journalism, Politics, Nonfiction, Political Science

188 pages, Kindle Edition

First published July 15, 2004

Reviews

[Steven Peterson · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a well written book, accessible to the well read layperson. Stimson does a fine job of laying out the thesis that he has elaborated upon in more academic research. On page xvi, he lays out the central theme of this work: "Tracing movements and showing conseuences is the central theme of this book. It claims that change over time is what moves politics. Its design is to look at change over time in many different facets of public preferences, behavior, and response." One disclosure that I probably ought to make: Jim Stimson was one of my professors in graduate school at the State University of New York at Buffalo (as it was then called), and his work and passion for the study of politics is something that has stuck with me over time.

In some senses, the culminatuion of this volume begins in chapter 3. Here, Stimson notes the evolution of policy preferences over time. His data analysis clearly suggests oscillations in Americans' political preferences (liberal to conservative as one of the examples) over time (from 1960 to 2000). In Chapter 4, he examines a sampling of presidential elections and asks what they meant (if anything). He also inquires into the effects of presidential debates. Chapter 5 looks at public opinion regarding government between elections. Much data are presented in an accessible and illuminating manner.

In the end, he contends (page 171), ". . .citzens--in the aggregate and at the margin--do succeed in communicating their preferences to government." This should be considered in terms of a conclusion that he and colleagues made in another work, "The Macro Polity," that government in the United States does respond to public opinion. All in all, a good work for well informed laypersons. . . .

[Hersh · Rating 4 out of 5]

In bringing together elements of his earlier work in this book, Jim Stimson demonstrates why he is one of the best in his field. Analytically rigorous yet eminently readable, the result is a cogent examination of the relationship between mass public and government. Key in all of this is his measure of ‘policy mood’ which is one of the most elegant and aesthetically pleasing contributions to the modelling of opinion change over time.

[Karly Kirkpatrick · Rating 3 out of 5]

Very informative but dry. Read it for a class.