Why the Tories Won: The Inside Story of the 2015 Election

by Tim Ross

When David Cameron returned to Tory headquarters early on the morning of 8 May, he declared his sensational election victory to be 'the sweetest' moment of his political career. The Conservatives had won their first Commons majority for twenty-three years and the Prime Minister had achieved the seemingly increasing his popularity while in government, winning more seats than in 2010 and confounding almost every pundit and opinion poll in the process. Within hours, his defeated rivals Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage had all resigned, stunned and devastated by the brutality of their losses. Political journalist Tim Ross reveals the inside story of the election that shocked Britain. Based on interviews with key figures at the top of the Conservative Party, and with private access to Cabinet ministers, party leaders and their closest aides, this gripping account of the 2015 campaign uncovers the secret tactics the Tories used to such devastating effect.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, Ebooks

306 pages, Kindle Edition

First published October 12, 2015

Reviews

[Susan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Recently, I have been watching a lot of political documentaries. These included the excellent, ‘Coalition,’ about the 2010 hung parliament and shown in 2015, shortly before the election discussed in this book. I was inspired, by that drama documentary to go back to the 10th May, 2015.

Without doubt, another hung parliament was expected. It was wrongly predicted as a knife edge election, but resulted in a Conservative majority and the resignation of Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband (as well as Nigel Farage). This book has an interesting look at why the polls predicted the result so incorrectly and how the Tories won.

Having read this, it seems there were two main reasons. Firstly, there was the importance of Lynton Crosby, the Australian election strategist who was in charge of the Conservative election machine. Crosby was, most definitely, in charge. He motivated those working for the campaign, was always available and, by the time the Labour Party were holding their first meeting of the morning, the Conservatives were on their third meeting. Organisation, good use of social media, targeted questioning and well organised volunteers, were all part of this. Labour considered that they had more people to knock on doors and the Tories were happy to let them think that. In the same way Labour think they have public support, through relying on Twitter, which feeds into their own beliefs, the Tories used people more effectively.

The second main reason was the Labour leader, Ed Miliband. A leader as awkward and uncomfortable as Theresa May later proved to be for the Conservatives, his lack of appeal was a massive hurdle that the Labour Party never managed to climb over. From forgetting the words of his speech, to a much regretted bacon sandwich, Miliband stumbled from one disaster to disaster, while, accused by his party of lacking passion, Cameron rolled up his sleeves and presented a much more polished view of a leader. Of course, with hindsight, we can see this win would not turn out as successful as it first appeared, but this is about the campaign and not what came after.

Whatever your political views, this is an interesting read. It lacks the humour, and lightness, of some political authors, but does have a lot of revealing interviews, some human interest, and insights into how, and why, those involved – including the polls and the media – got the predicted result so wrong.

[Stewart · Rating 5 out of 5]

I had no idea, when I began reading this book, that Theresa May would call a snap election! I kept that front of mind as I read this amazing account of Cameron & Crosby defying the polls & odds, cannibalizing their coalition partners, exploiting the SNP spectre, and capitalizing on Labour's ineptitude on the economy & leadership.

The Cameron majority was the very last outcome I wanted, but I could not help but admire the messaging, effectiveness, sophistication, and ruthlessness of the well-executed Tory campaign in 2015. Lots of lessons for partisans of all stripes.

[Will Blackwell · Rating 5 out of 5]

A detailed and thorough account of the 2015 election. Ross sets the political scene- and tells the story of the election camapign- very well. However he didn't analyse the results in detail and didn't illustrate the shift in the political landscape that paved the way for the 5 years of political turbulence that was to follow.

The Tory campaign was very well run with a clear message and strategy, compared to Labour's campaign which lacked a clear message and strategy. The main reason for this huge gap in competence of the campaigns was Lynton Crosby. After a disastrous 2010 campaign, where the Tories missed a seemingly open goal, and shambolic few years in government Crosby came in and mapped out a clear path to re-election. Labour didn't really have anyone in charge of their election campaign and switched weak messages on the NHS and economic credibility, compared to Crosby's clear focus on economic stability and strong leadership. The point being that some of the messages Labour switched between could have been successful, as Corbyn, and Vote Leave to a lesser extent, proved with their clear message on economic inequality and the NHS, just that Labour didn't have a strong narrative to counter the Tory messages.

Another vital factor, which Ross doesn't mention as much as he should have done, was the inaccurate opinion polls which put the two main parties neck and neck. The media used these polls to frame the election as an inevitable hung parliament. This was extremly misleading- Crosby and Textor's private polling showed the Conservatives with a consistent lead over Labour- and damaged Labour because it allowed Crosby to push the idea that Miliband would be forced to rely on the SNP- something voters didn't like the thought of. In hindsight it looks like the polling companies were always getting the opinions of a group of people who didn't reflect the wider electorate.

[Eva Matijevic · Rating 5 out of 5]

Truth be told (and if memory serves me right), this book doesn't deserve five stars. But, I've finished it weeks ago and can't really remember why my initial "grade" was four stars, plus I already recommended it to like a gazillion people and I wouldn't do that if it wasn't worthy of the highest grade, so it seems only fair to put five stars here too.

Now, I do remember that the book had the weak start and that it took Mr. Ross ages to get to the point. Also, he should have worked on chronology a bit more as he goes back and forth with the events and it can be confusing if you, like me, weren't following the election closely.

On the bright side, this book contains a lot of useful information and it helps you understand who was who in UK politics back in 2015 (and I am hoping that someone will write something similar for 2019. election).

All in all, this is tremendous book and, regardless of your feelings towards politics, do not skip it.

[Jesse Young · Rating 3 out of 5]

This feels like a lesser effort that same authors' following book, on the 2017 election. The major failing here is that it feels like a hagiography of the Tory campaign - and Lynton Crosby in particular. This books spends 90% of its time focused on the minutiae of the conservatives' campaign, while not turning to Labour until the book's third act -- and it feels lopsided as a result (they correct this bias in their 2017 book). While the authors note that the Tories benefitted from a lot of lucky breaks (namely the SNP revolt in Scotland), too much of this feels like blind acceptance of the notion that the Tories did everything right (because they won) and Labour did everything wrong (because they lost). Still, there's a lot of fun insight into a truly unusual campaign -- that led to the Tories' first majority government in 23 years.

[Pandit · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is an excellent breakdown of the electioneering of Lynton Crosby - the man who has steered many electoral campaigns in Australia and UK. Many are suspicious of this demonic art of nudging - steering people's votes and behaviour through clever psychology, rather than force. But to be fair, all parties do it; only some do it better than others. Crosbyis a master of the art, but there are others. Read David Plouffe (steering Obama's campaigns) or Dominic Cummings.
This book is nicely put together, and smartly written. But you would really need some familiarity with UK politics to really follow all the names and references.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bit Crosby heavy but enjoyed it

[John Hayward · Rating 4 out of 5]

Wasn't expecting much of Tim Ross's Why The Tories Won, but it's a worthwhile read; in short: clear messaging, targetting and discipline.

[Lex · Rating 3 out of 5]

Some interesting insights into the inner workings of the 2015 campaign. It could have done with being in chronological order, as the jumping around in the timelime made it hard to follow and led to repetition.

[Chris · Rating 3 out of 5]

Repetitive but a useful reference text

[David Chalmers · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book should be compulsory reading for Lib Dems

[John Houghton · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent guide to the 2015 GE campaign that captures the ruthlessness of the Conservatives and the haplessness of Labour.

Detail and after detail, anecdote after anecdote expose the gap in professionalism and basic organisation between the two campaigns. One that was highly drilled and focused, with key players operating with clear mandates and responsibilities. And one that changed strategy by the hour and was divided between competing camps with a leader who was unwilling to confront his own unpopularity.

The Conservatives had an advantage in funding but the Labour campaign was so inept, if they had had an extra £10m they would have built an even bigger Ed-stone.