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The Price of Oil
Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate. This book will appeal to a wide readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy industry, as well as to general readers interested in the ongoing debate about oil prices.
252 pages, Unknown Binding
Published October 28, 2015
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February 29, 2016
You couldn't ask for a better book about The Price of Oil. Be forewarned that this is a research-heavy book about the history of oil prices, the many factors that affect the price of oil, and predictions for the future (up to the year 2035) for the price of oil. The book isn't cheap, at $32, but for those who are motivated to learn more about the topic, from a historical or an investment standpoint, the purchase will be money well spent.
I'll caution you again the book is not for everybody. It is written like a long research paper, complete with numerous references. The authors communicate the results of their study in a readable fashion, but it may come across as dry to those accustomed to anecdotes, humorous asides, or anything of that nature. There are none here.
The most challenging part of the book for the average reader will be the prediction methodology that is explained. Rather than just offer long-range predictions for oil prices, the authors explain how they arrived at these numbers. The methods were challenging for me to understand, but I believe with a second read, I could master the ideas, and even adopt the methods, using current or future data to make even better predictions, going forward. But being able to understand or adopt their methods certainly is not necessary to enjoy or gain from reading the book.
The main point of the book is that oil is moving into an era of abundance, and a correspondingly low price, largely due to the advent of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") in the US. The authors touch upon many other topics, such as OPEC, government ownership of oil resources, the longevity of shale oil, climate concerns, environmental issues with fracking, and whether fracking will spread to the rest of the world (they believe it will). I also learned about many various things; the problems with transporting gas and oil by rail, the competitiveness of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, how carbon emissions can be stored underground to prevent release into the atmosphere, the various ways electricity is generated, and so on.
The book is very current, with commentary about oil prices as recent as early 2015. The book has very specific, helpful information such as estimates on how much it costs to produce a barrel of oil in various parts of the world by conventional means or by fracking. At the time of this writing, the price of oil is below $30 a barrel. Is it even profitable to continue producing oil at these low prices? This book is the place to find out.
I'll caution you again the book is not for everybody. It is written like a long research paper, complete with numerous references. The authors communicate the results of their study in a readable fashion, but it may come across as dry to those accustomed to anecdotes, humorous asides, or anything of that nature. There are none here.
The most challenging part of the book for the average reader will be the prediction methodology that is explained. Rather than just offer long-range predictions for oil prices, the authors explain how they arrived at these numbers. The methods were challenging for me to understand, but I believe with a second read, I could master the ideas, and even adopt the methods, using current or future data to make even better predictions, going forward. But being able to understand or adopt their methods certainly is not necessary to enjoy or gain from reading the book.
The main point of the book is that oil is moving into an era of abundance, and a correspondingly low price, largely due to the advent of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") in the US. The authors touch upon many other topics, such as OPEC, government ownership of oil resources, the longevity of shale oil, climate concerns, environmental issues with fracking, and whether fracking will spread to the rest of the world (they believe it will). I also learned about many various things; the problems with transporting gas and oil by rail, the competitiveness of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, how carbon emissions can be stored underground to prevent release into the atmosphere, the various ways electricity is generated, and so on.
The book is very current, with commentary about oil prices as recent as early 2015. The book has very specific, helpful information such as estimates on how much it costs to produce a barrel of oil in various parts of the world by conventional means or by fracking. At the time of this writing, the price of oil is below $30 a barrel. Is it even profitable to continue producing oil at these low prices? This book is the place to find out.
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