What do you think?
Rate this book


181 pages, Paperback
First published April 16, 1975
If phones grew from 4 inches to 6 inches, linear projection demands that by next decade we should happily walk down the street holding flat-screen television panels against our ears.
If a coffee shop successfully increases cup sizes from small to medium to extra-large, the trend implies we will inevitably commute to work carrying four-liter buckets of hot espresso.
If parents observe their toddler grow ten centimeters in twelve months, a strict linear forecast guarantees they are raising a six-meter-tall giant by age twenty.
Scenario 1: A wolf snatched one of your fellow sheep last week while everyone was asleep. The memory is fresh. The herd is paranoid, jumpy, and organized. Sheep take turns staying awake all night, eyes peeled and horns ready.
Scenario 2: Five peaceful years have passed without a single wolf sighting. The sheep decide wolves are an outdated myth. Everyone sleeps deeply, spreads out across the dark fields, and drops all guard duties.
The Hedge Stage: Right after a crash, fear is fresh. Borrowers and lenders behave like hyper-vigilant sheep. Companies take on small loans where operating income easily repays both interest and principal. Everyone sleeps lightly.
The Speculative Stage: A few quiet years pass without trouble. People conclude that the quiet period is the permanent baseline. Lenders lower their standards, and borrowers borrow more. Now, operating cash flow only pays the interest; paying down principal requires rolling the loan over into new debt. Everyone assumes the credit window will stay open forever.
The Ponzi Stage: Prolonged calm convinces everyone that asset prices will grow uninterrupted. Debt expands to the point where borrowers cannot afford the principal or the interest. The entire plan relies on selling the asset to someone else at a higher price or taking out a fresh loan to pay the interest on the old one. Financial safety is abandoned entirely just as danger peaks.