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Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning
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Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding ""provocative"" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. ""Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union,"" Betts says, ""the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it."" His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that ""without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
"
Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding ""provocative"" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. ""Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union,"" Betts says, ""the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it."" His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that ""without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
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333 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1982
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
July 10, 2022
Only skimmed some of the historical case studies. Focused more on the nuclear deterrence logic in the second half and his overall conclusions. Betts is very (maybe too) serious and verbose, but every once in a while he produces a sentence that precisely summarizes the crux of an issue he's spent 20 pages describing. It's almost better to skim-read just to find those gems. Also quite remarkable how consistent his analysis of nuclear first use / deterrence is over the last 40 years given his recent FA article on responses to Putin going nuclear.
November 15, 2021
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Betts was born and raised in Eaton, Pennsylvania graduating from Newton High School in 1965. He went on to attend and graduate from Harvard University earning a bachelor's, master's, and eventually doctorate in government in 1965, 1971 and 1975 respectively.
His dissertation, under the direction of Samuel P. Huntington was on the role of military advice in decisions to resort to force, which later became his first book, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises.
His dissertation was awarded the Sumner Prize, for best dissertation in international relations. While a student at Harvard, Betts served as a teaching fellow from 1971 to 1975 and a lecturer for the 1975–1976 academic year. He served as a professional staff member on the Church Committee.
In 1976 Betts joined the Brookings Institution where he served as a research associate and later in 1981 a senior fellow until 1990. While at Brookings, Betts was a professional lecture at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Harvard, and Columbia University.
Additionally, he was a staff member on the National Security Council in 1977 and on the foreign policy staff of Walter Mondale presidential campaign in 1984.
In 1990, Betts joined the faculty at Columbia University. There, he led the international security policy program at the School of International and Public Affairs, became the director of the Institute of War and Peace Studies.
A staple of the faculty, Betts taught the introductory course war, peace, and strategy for over 25 years, a requirement for all international relations students at the university.
Betts has been an occasional consultant to the National Intelligence Council and Central Intelligence Agency.
Betts was born and raised in Eaton, Pennsylvania graduating from Newton High School in 1965. He went on to attend and graduate from Harvard University earning a bachelor's, master's, and eventually doctorate in government in 1965, 1971 and 1975 respectively.
His dissertation, under the direction of Samuel P. Huntington was on the role of military advice in decisions to resort to force, which later became his first book, Soldiers, Statesmen, and Cold War Crises.
His dissertation was awarded the Sumner Prize, for best dissertation in international relations. While a student at Harvard, Betts served as a teaching fellow from 1971 to 1975 and a lecturer for the 1975–1976 academic year. He served as a professional staff member on the Church Committee.
In 1976 Betts joined the Brookings Institution where he served as a research associate and later in 1981 a senior fellow until 1990. While at Brookings, Betts was a professional lecture at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Harvard, and Columbia University.
Additionally, he was a staff member on the National Security Council in 1977 and on the foreign policy staff of Walter Mondale presidential campaign in 1984.
In 1990, Betts joined the faculty at Columbia University. There, he led the international security policy program at the School of International and Public Affairs, became the director of the Institute of War and Peace Studies.
A staple of the faculty, Betts taught the introductory course war, peace, and strategy for over 25 years, a requirement for all international relations students at the university.
Betts has been an occasional consultant to the National Intelligence Council and Central Intelligence Agency.
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews