When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation

by A.J. Friedemann

In lively and engaging language, this book describes our dependence on freight transport and its vulnerability to diminishing supplies and high prices of oil. Ships, trucks, and trains are the backbone of civilization, hauling the goods that fulfill our every need and desire. Their powerful, highly-efficient diesel combustion engines are exquisitely fine-tuned to burn petroleum-based diesel fuel. These engines and the fuels that fire them have been among the most transformative yet disruptive technologies on the planet. Although this transportation revolution has allowed many of us to fill our homes with global goods even a past emperor would envy, our era of abundance, and the freight transport system in particular, is predicated on the affordability and high energy density of a single fuel, oil. This book explores alternatives to this finite resource including other liquid fuels, truck and locomotive batteries and utility-scale energy storage technology, and various forms of renewable electricity to support electrified transport. Transportation also must adapt to other Threats from climate change, financial busts, supply-chain failure, and transportation infrastructure decay. Robert Hirsch, who wrote the “Peaking of World Oil Production” report for the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005, said that planning for peak world production must start at least 10, if not 20 years ahead of time. What little planning exists focuses mainly on how to accommodate 30 percent more economic growth while averting climate change, ignoring the possibility that we are at, or near, the end of growth.Taken for granted, the modern transportation system will not endure forever. The time is now to take a realistic and critical look at the choices ahead, and how the future of transportation may unfold.

Genres: Science, Nonfiction

150 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2016

Reviews

[Randall Wallace · Rating 4 out of 5]

Here is a cheery fact for Americans to know should the economy collapse, “If Americans were to use their entire stock of hardwoods to heat their homes, our woodlands would be gone in four years”. (Nate Hagens 2007) Our 47,800-mile interstate highway system has a replacement value of 425 billion dollars. We were told it was built so we could live faster, get there faster, and get stuff faster, but it was done at a massive energy/climate change cost to our kids and grandkids. Short term thinking got us here, because instead of using much more energy efficient boats and trains (as in Europe), “we’ve traded away energy for time”. There is a reason why James Howard Kunstler, in his book the Long Emergency, states that Suburbia (and the Fifties interstate highway system built to feed it) was the greatest misallocation of wealth in human history. We created a system that keeps people housed away from their jobs and food sources by design and keeps them reliant on the most in-efficient form of transportation. Now, four out of five communities rely entirely on trucks for all their stuff. If those trucks stop running, “we’d all become Amish overnight.” Roads get a huge subsidy - every year they get 146 billion dollars for building and maintenance. But Trucks are wildly inefficient next to trains and lose 20% of their fuel energy just to air resistance when travelling over 50 miles per hour. And you can’t have electric trucks, because the heavy battery would be 90% of the truck load weight. Catenary systems, those overhead lines you see above buses in San Francisco, could work in many more cities. Instead of inefficient non-electric trucks, we should -first choice- ship by water, -second choice- use trains, using diesel-electric locomotives instead of all-electric locomotives because diesel-electrics are 7.1% more efficient than all-electrics. “Wind provides only 4.4% and solar .5% of US electricity now. Wind is unlikely to scale up to more than 13.2% and solar to 1.5% by 2030.” Did the mainstream press ever tell you that it takes 1,000 gallons of water to make every gallon of Ethanol? Or that Ethanol’s EROI (energy return on investment) is a pathetic .8 to 1.6 while gas is 50 and coal is 25? And that making Ethanol takes as much fossil energy as it contains? So much for the Media’s hype over Ethanol. When your society’s energy’s EROI falls below 10, that means your society is going to soon collapse due to lack of energy. Go to the author’s website for more information: www.energyskeptic.com

[Duke Revard · Rating 5 out of 5]

The stuff of horror.

..."the popularizers of scientific news would have us believe that there is no cause for anxiety, that reserves will last thousands of years, and that before they run out science will have produced miracles. Our past history and security have given us the sentimental belief that the things we fear will never really happen...Can we feel certain that when economically recoverable fossil fuels are gone science will have learned how to maintain a high standard of living on renewable energy sources?" -Admiral Hyman Rickover

What will the renewable energy of the future be?
Friedmann demonstrates what it won't be; Nuclear, coal, natural gas, liquid natural gas, hydropower, marine hydro-kinetic power, offshore wind, geothermal, or biomass. Onshore wind and Solar are at the top of the list and yet currently provide 4.4% (Wind) and .5% Solar and expected to peak at 13.2% and 1.5%. Friedemann's thesis is well-argued and sobering. We won't likely experience anything resembling a soft-landing.

[Tony Smyth · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is excellent, tight, well written, lots of endnotes with good sources. If you want to know how the end of oil will impact trucking and hence our western civilisation this book is for you (it is however very American based). The book also shows how the alternatives to oil,will not suffice in replacing oil.
My only caveat with this book is that Alice has decided to have it printed via Springer Books which makes it very expensive for a 131 page book. Very. However it has information that I need as research for my next book.
This book should be read as many people as possible, it is that important IMHO, BUT, when it is so expensive for such a small book, inevitably many of those who ought to buy it wont because of the price. I award it 4.5 out of 5 for content, but only 2.5 for the decision to severely limit its sales by choosing Springer.

[Hugh Owens · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a must read book which exposes a truth known only to the economic and military power elites:The industrial world runs on diesel and when diesel depletes so will the economy. No amount of windmills, Li-ion batteries or solar panel energy can drive the complex networked globalized industrial economy. Since the publication of Alice Friedemann's book world diesel production has been in decline even as world all liquid crude production has climbed. I had difficulty obtaining a copy because Springer Publicatyion has priced this book out of reach of everyone. The Kindle version is $53 and the print even higher for a 148 PG BOOK! If you can afford it, by all means buy it. If you can't, talk to your librarian.

[Zhi Wei Lee · Rating 5 out of 5]

In this book, Alice Friedemann critiques the sustainability of our current economic system through the lens of transportation. In a world where we're used to having things we want being on-demand, it's easy to take for granted that this is made possible by an extensive freight network --- a network designed with oil as the main (or only) energy driver in mind. Friedemann makes three important points about this. One, the current freight network is highly energy-inefficient, given the "just-in-time" delivery systems that rely heavily on trucks. Two, the feasibility of that network -- and by extension, the economic model supported by it -- is at risk if peak oil materialises (naturally, she argues that it will). Three, we have no choice but to turn to renewable energy -- but looking at where we stand on that front, the choices are few (she rules out nuclear, hydro, biomass - to name a few) and do not have the capacity to replicate that which has been enabled by oil. Collectively, it paints a sobering picture of the future that may lie ahead in decades to come, maybe sooner.

Highly readable and re-readable. Friedemann writes simply and clearly, and the book is divided into very short and thematic chapters that are easy to follow, especially considering the complexity of the subject. I would recommend it to anyone.

[WILLIAM COWHEY · Rating 5 out of 5]

Paints a rather grim picture. Not only are we still way too heavily dependent on oil, but all the alternatives are currently extremely lacking in their ability to be a viable substitute. Some might find this book to be too pessimistic, but I appreciated the cold, hard look at the reality of the situation and not leaning too hard into techno-optimism that many tend to do.

[Phillip Woodard · Rating 5 out of 5]

A very detailed and well researched book that shows how the whole world is beholden to trucks for delivery of EVERYTHING. It then explains the the diesel fuel to drive those trucks are subject to resource shortages in the future. A very scary future.

[Mary · Rating 5 out of 5]

This books gives an in-depth analysis of our dependance on oil and fossil fuels that are the lie blood of the modern economy, with a focus on transportation. Spoiler alert: We are not on the path to get off of them and there are no alternative energies that will bridge the gap. Highly recommended read!

[Logan Streondj · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent book on what may happen when the trucks stop running and why they likely will stop running within the next few decades as all the alternatives to diesel are thoroughly debunked.