Discussions of the use and limits of randomized control trials, considering the power of theory, external validity, gaps in knowledge, and what issues matter. The practice of development economics has undergone something of a revolution as many economists have adopted new methods to answer perennial questions about the effectiveness of anti-poverty programs. In this book, prominent development economists discuss the use and impact of one of the most significant of these new methods, randomized control trials (RCTs) and field experiments. In extended interviews conducted over a period of several years, they explain their work and their thinking and consider the broader issues of how we learn about the world and how we can change it for the better. These conversations offer specialists and nonspecialists alike a unique opportunity to hear economists speak in their own words, free of the confines of a particular study or econometric esoterica. The economists describe how they apply research findings in the way they think about the world, revealing their ideas about the power of theory, external validity, gaps in knowledge, and what issues matter. Also included are interviews with RCT observers, critics, sponsors, consumers, and others. Each interview provides a brief biography of the interviewee. Thorough annotations offer background and explanations for key ideas and studies referred to in the conversations. Contributors Abhijit Banerjee, Nancy Birdsall, Chris Blattman, Alex Counts, Tyler Cowen, Angus Deaton, Frank DeGiovanni, Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, Xavi Gine, Rachel Glennerster, Judy Gueron, Elie Hassenfeld, Dean Karlan, Michael Kremer, David McKenzie, Jonathan Morduch, Lant Pritchett, Jonathan Robinson, Antoinette Schoar, Dean Yang
I wish I could take the format of this book and apply it to a dozen other topics. Ogden, knowledgeable in his own right, sits down with 20 experts in development economics and interviews them about the use of randomized trials in their field. I came to this book curious how a discipline outside of medicine wrestles with the benefits and challenges of RCTs, and I gained some valuable perspective.
I can’t summarize the whole book (partly because it’s difficult to synthesize opposing opinions of 20 economists), but two points stand out. 1) A consistent critique is that the results of RCTs are context-dependent and can’t be assumed to apply to other people in other parts of the world. I agree, but I find medicine is ahead of economics in demanding trial participation across multiple sites and countries before accepting external validity. That’s not to say there are not consistently underrepresented groups in clinical trials (pregnant women, racial minorities, etc) but we’ve learned to be cautious about generalizing. 2) The critique that better evidence doesn’t guarantee better programs/policies/government/results was compelling. This is tied up in theories of change, and I’ve come to appreciate that it takes more than a positive experiment to improve the lives of the poor or ill. Integrating better data into our decision making is an ongoing challenge of the 21st century, but it can’t be separated from improving the systems that act on these data.
If you find yourself becoming a snob about RCTs (like I was), this book might be for you.