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304 pages, Paperback
First published January 12, 2016
What we have here is a signal/noise problem. Humans evolved brains that are pattern-recognition machines, designed to detect signals that enhance or threaten survival amid a very noisy world. Also known as association learning (associating A and B as causally connected), we are very good at it, or at least good enough to have survived and passed on the genes for the capacity of association learning. Unfortunately, the system has flaws. Superstitions are false associations—A appears to be connected to B, but it is not (the baseball player who doesn't shave and hits a home run). Las Vegas was built on false association learning . . .
Anecdotes fuel pattern-seeking thought. Aunt Mildred's cancer went into remission after she imbibed extract of seaweed—maybe it works. But there is only one surefire method of proper pattern-recognition, and that is science. Only when a group of cancer patients taking seaweed extract is compared to a control group can we draw a valid conclusion . . .
The problem is that although true pattern-recognition helps us survive, false pattern-recognition does not necessarily get us killed, and so the overall phenomenon endured the winnowing process of natural selection. The Darwin Awards (honoring those who remove themselves from the gene pool "in really stupid ways"), like this essay, will never want for examples. Anecdotal thinking comes naturally; science requires training.
About thirty years ago there was much talk that geologists ought only to observe and not theorize; and I well remember someone saying that at this rate a man might as well go into a gravel-pit and describe the colours. How odd it is that anyone should not see that all observation must be for or against some view if it is to be of any service!
[Edward] Tufte codified the design process into six principles: “(1) documenting the sources and characteristics of the data, (2) insistently enforcing appropriate comparisons, (3) demonstrating mechanisms of cause and effect, (4) expressing those mechanisms quantitatively, (5) recognizing the inherently multivariate nature of analytic problems, (6) inspecting and evaluating alternative explanations.” In brief, “information displays should be documentary, comparative, causal and explanatory, quantified, multivariate, exploratory, skeptical.”
When people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.
Biological evolution operates at a snail’s pace compared to technological evolution (the former is Darwinian and requires generations of differential reproductive success; the latter is Lamarckian and can be implemented within a single generation).
The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion … draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises … in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate.