The Future: A Very Short Introduction

Very Short Introductions #516

by Jennifer M. Gidley

From the beginning of time, humans have been driven by both a fear of the unknown and a curiosity to know. We have always yearned to know what lies ahead, whether threat or safety, scarcity or abundance. Throughout human history, our forebears tried to create certainty in the unknown, by seeking to influence outcomes with sacrifices to gods, preparing for the unexpected with advice from oracles, and by reading the stars through astrology. As scientific methods improve and computer technology develops we become ever more confident of our capacity to predict and quantify the future by accumulating and interpreting patterns from the past, yet the truth is there is still no certainty to be had.
In this Very Short Introduction Jennifer Gidley considers some of our most burning questions: What is "the future?" Is the future a time yet to come? Or is it a utopian place? Does the future have a history? Is there only one future or are there many possible futures? She asks if the future can ever be truly predicted or if we create our own futures -both hoped for and feared - by our thoughts, feelings, and actions, and concludes by analyzing how we can learn to study the future.
ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Futurism, Philosophy, Science, Business, Technology

192 pages, Paperback

Published June 1, 2017

Reviews

[Bojan Tunguz · Rating 1 out of 5]

Horrible book. I was hoping that this would be a book about an intelligent and informed exploration of what we may expect the future to bring. It tuned out to be yet another pseudo-intellectual drivel that is produced by the quasi-academic "studies" departments. It became very clear early on that the author is not very well informed about any concrete subject matter that she tried presenting. The book is so full of glaring factual errors - no, Thomas Moore was NOT executed for penning "Utopia." Most of the book consists of highly tendentious SJW polemics, without providing any interesting insights beyond regurgitating standard boilerplate cliches. I somehow forced myself to finish reading it, in vain hopes that at some point I may learn something interesting. Would not recommend this exercise to anyone else.

[Kyle · Rating 5 out of 5]

Looks like I’m a futurist now, probably always have been, and yet there is so much unknown about what is essentially unknowable (except for every single moment in one’s life where the future becomes now and instantly passes over into the past). Gidley presents her case that positivist may seem to have a grasp of what will be, but a different mindset (four that she hones in on) is needed in the quantum mechanicized present where probable futures and creative thinking are assets rather than the worries that The Man had used to keep the same ol’ story working in his favour. More reading is required, if there is enough time!

[Akbar Madan · Rating 4 out of 5]

المستقبل
كل ما قد نستقبله من الآن فصاعدا هو جزء من مستقبلنا كبشر ، هو ليس مستقبل واحد فقط بل مستقبليات متعددة وكأنها عوالم متنوعة ، قد تكون مرعبة وقد تكون أكثر إشراقاً ، هذا ما يحاول المهتمين بدراسات المستقبليات futures studies من خلال رسم السيناريوهات تارة ومن خلال رصد الاتجاهات تارة أخرى ، لم يعد الوضع قابل لاخضاع المستقبل للتنبؤات الميتافيزيقية التي تبني تصوراتها على افتراضات غيبية لا يمكن قياسها او تطبيق التقدير الاستقرائي extrapolation عليها ، وكذلك لا مكان للتكهنات prognostics كما كان معمول بها في القرون الوسطى في عالم وتيرة التغيير فيه صعبة الضبط والتوقع اذا ما كان المستقبل يوتوبي utopias أو ديستوبي dystopies .

تختبر الكاتبة جينيفر رئيسة الاتحاد العالمي لدراسات المستقبليات مفهوم الوعي البشري والخط الزمني الذي سار عليه عبر وعي هذا الوعي للزمن نفسه ، خط زمني لتطورات الوعي البشري وخط موازي لتطورات وعي البشر للزمن مكّن الانسان من جعل الزمن " المستقبل " قابل للدراسة والفحص ومن ثم التوقع والتنبؤ ، وعلى أساس ذلك تفسر جينيفر ظهور الانبياء كعلامة لحاجة البشر للتنبؤ ويصبح التنبؤ ذات مصداقية أكثر عندما يقترن بالخالق المدبر والمهيمن على الوجود الذي بيده القدرة والتقدير لكتابة مستقبل البشرية في " لوح محفوظ " .
يأتي عصر النهضة ليقدم مستقبليات من نوع آخر كان رائد هذه المستقبليات الفنان والفيلسوف ليوناردو دافينتشي حيث قدم مخططات ورسومات استشرافية للمستقبل لكنها تعالج قضايا الحاضر وبعدها توالت الاكتشافات العلمية لتكون عمود الاستشراف للواقع العلمي والصناعي وحركة المجتمعات من خلال هذا الواقع ، وتراوحت مساهمات العلماء في تأسيس اليوتوبية وكذلك الديستوبية فعرفنا مالتوس في مبدأ السكان ديستوبي بينما كان اوغيست كونت وكارل ماركس كلاهما يوتوبي حيث لا يختلفون عن الرؤية النبوية الدينية الا في الشكل فقط .
تؤسس جينيفر لصياغة فهم للغة المستقبل الرقمية والتي انجزت توقعاتها المقاربة للحقيقة في مجالات رصد الطقس وحركة الفلك وكلها تعتمد رقمنة دقيقة قد تحول البشر يوما ما الى ارقام يستطيع العلم توقع السلوكيات الفردية والجماعية بنفس دقة معرفة الطقس ، في المقابل حتى توقعات الطقس رغم دقتها الا انها لا تعطي يقين خصوصا مع التغييرات المناخية الكبيرة ، ولا يغيب عن جينيفر بحث الاتجاهات التعددية في دراسات المستقبليات والانتقال من الاحادية الوضعية الى كل المقاربات النقدية والثقافية والتأويلية التي تمثلت في تيارات ما بعد الحداثة التي تريد ان تتحرر من الرؤية المستقبلية الصناعية العلمية ، وكذلك تتحرر من النظر الاختزالية لحقل دراسات المستقبليات الذي يحصره الاعلام في كرة زجاجية بلورية أو على أفضل حال في منتجات الذكاء الاصطناعي التي تحمل في نفسها مخاوف بتر القدرات البشرية من التطور ، بينما حقيقة الأمر إن هذا الحقل يحمل من التعقيد أكثر مما يتصور .
تختم جينيفر كتابها بوضع مخطط تتكلم فيه عن التحديات العالمية البيئية والجيوساسية والاجتماعية - الثقافية وايضا المستقبليات العالمية البديلة التي تظهر اتجاهات معاكسة متعددة وبدائل للتغلب على التحديات .

[Ffion Wyn · Rating 5 out of 5]

10/10- would recommend.
Love how intense and dense these little books are!

[Jesse Richards · Rating 1 out of 5]

Prefers to list all scholars - with esoteric, unexplained differences between each - instead of focusing on concepts. Reads like footnotes.

[Philip · Rating 1 out of 5]

Futures studies is an interdisciplinary academic field taking elements primarily from the social sciences, and this book is very much an introduction to that field, its history and its controversies, rather than to 'The Future'. The author is very keen to let us know where she stands in relation to all of these, but she writes in sprawling, jargon-ridden academese that's in need of some radical editing. As an introduction to the lay reader, even to that specific topic, it's terrible.

(Most of the subject matter is unfamiliar to me, but when Gidley did stray into territory I knew about she misspelled the name of SF author Vernor Vinge, which makes me wonder about her accuracy in other areas.)

The chapter on the history of prediction and futurology is worthwhile up to about the mid-20th century, and the chapter on technological vs human-centred futures is interesting, albeit deeply conservative; Gidley reasonably rejects the extremes of techno-utopianism, but seems happy to throw any kind of techno-optimism out with it, rehashing arguments I recalled from CS Lewis's The Abolition of Man (1943). Gidley has her own optimistic vision, but her complaints about how young people these days are all addicted to their phones make her come across as the last person whose ideas about the future I'd want to hear.

I've enjoyed the other Very Short Introductions I've read, but this is definitely one to avoid.

[Alp · Rating 1 out of 5]

Read it if you want to waste your time

[Jonathan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dense and informative, Jennifer Gidley's "The Future: A Very Short Introduction" helps orient the reader in the history of how humans have conceptualized the future. Is it linear or cyclical? A time or a place? Can we predict it, or at least explore the possibilities, both good and bad, that lie ahead? As Gidley notes, we face a number of global challenges of great import, and thinking critically about the future will be key to resolving them.

[فاطمة. عباس · Rating 4 out of 5]

كتاب جمييييل يتحدث اولا عن نظرة البشر للمستقبل و كيفية فهمه خلال ال ٣ الاف سنة الماضية

ثم يقدم موجزاً للدراسات المستقبلية و مناهجها
ثم وجهة نظر حول وضع أسس لمستقبل واعد
تناولت الكاتبة من خلالها مواضيع مهمة مثل الاقتصاد و الصناعة و البيئة و المناخ و التعليم و غيره

كتاب جميل و موجز أنصح بقراءته

[Ietrio · Rating 1 out of 5]

From the academic desert here comes another prophet bringing histories about what their god has planned about your life.

[Maik Arnold · Rating 5 out of 5]

The book explores how the concept of the future has been studied and understood during human history and how humans have attempted to anticipate and shape the future.

In the first part, the book covers the emergence of the theory of linear time in ancient Greece and looks at how people have tried to predict and control the future, such as through prophecy and forecasting. It also mentions the use of sacrifices to gods, advice from oracles, and astrology as methods that have been used to create certainty in the unknown.

The book also introduces the field of "futures studies", which encompasses a range of disciplines and approaches that aim to explore and anticipate potential developments. A short note: The plural "futures" is important here because there are various concepts of what we call "the future". I learned that the "future" is not a single entity. On the contrary, the book discusses the possibility of multiple futures in a world where anything is possible and explores how individuals and groups can actively shape the future in line with their desired outcomes.

From a methodological perspective, the book explains the development of scientific methods and computer technology as tools that have allowed humans to become more confident in their ability to predict and quantify the future through the analysis of patterns from the past. Futurists often use various tools and methods, such as scenario planning, trend analysis, and modelling, to understand and predict the future. However, it is essential to note that the future is inherently uncertain and that it is impossible to predict with certainty what will happen.

The text also asks whether the future is a fixed time or a utopian place, whether there is only one future or multiple possible futures, and whether we create our futures through our thoughts, feelings, and actions.

Last but not least, the book can be of interest to those interested in the field of futures studies and the various approaches and tools used to explore and anticipate potential developments. Additionally, the book may appeal not only to readers interested in the potential impacts of technology on the future and the importance of considering the needs and well-being of humans in shaping the future but also to those readers who are concerned about global challenges and how we can address them.

[foteini_dl · Rating 3 out of 5]

Ανατρέχοντας μια ιστορία (ή πολλές ιστορίες) περίπου 3000 χρόνων, μπορούμε να πούμε με σιγουριά ότι η γραμμικότητα του χρόνου και η ύπαρξη ενός και μόνο μέλλοντος δεν είναι καθόλου, εχμ, σίγουρη. Και ότι η λύση στα μεγάλα προβλήματα του σήμερα, όπως η αστικοποίηση και η κλιματική κρίση, βασίζεται σε μεγάλο βαθμό στο αν θα τα δούμε ως προκλήσεις και δράσουμε συμμετοχικά με το βλέμμα ουσιαστικά στραμμένο στις επόμενες γενιές που έρχονται.

Το βιβλίο προσπαθεί να χωρέσει σε περίπου 200 σελίδες ιδέες και κόνσεπτ που είναι δύσκολο να αναλυθούν σε τόσο μικρή έκταση. Προφανώς λειτουργεί ως ένα Introduction to Futures Studies 101 αλλά δεν μπορώ να σκεφτώ πως, αν είχε χωριστεί σε δύο βιβλία, θα έδινε περισσότερο χώρο για προβληματισμό και παρακίνηση, ενώ τώρα μοιάζει να αποτελεί μια καταγραφή -και αυτό το λες (οκ, λέω) μείον.

Ακόμα κι έτσι, ήταν ικανό να με κάνει να σκεφτώ πως (ελπίζω ότι) είναι θέμα χρόνου ο όρος «μέλλον» να αντικατασταθεί από τον πιο ολιστικό όρο «μέλλοντα» (σε αναλογία με την «κλιματική κρίση» και την «κλιματική αλλαγή», που είναι και επιτακτική ανάγκη για να καταλάβουμε τη σοβαρότητα της πρόκλησης και να αφυπνιστούμε). Όπως και ότι οι δυστοπίες και οι ουτοπίες -όχι μόνο στο επίπεδο της λογοτεχνίας και των τεχνών- καθρεφτίζουν τους φόβους και τις ελπίδες μας, γι’ αυτό και τη δεδομένη στιγμή οι δυστοπίες είναι πάλι στο προσκήνιο (μήπως αυτό όμως μας αφυπνίσει;). Α, και ότι για να διαχειριστούμε τις προκλήσεις πρέπει πρώτα να δούμε με *πραγματικά* κριτική ματιά τις πράξεις μας και να αναλάβουμε τις ευθύνες που μας αναλογούν. Είμαστε άραγε έτοιμοι να το κάνουμε;

[Jen Serdetchnaia · Rating 2 out of 5]

Reads like a hundred-page lit review, but offers a solid introduction to the hopeful and empowering concept of alternative futures. Alternative futures operate at the boundary of the possible, the ideal and the real, to create possible, preferred and probable futures. This concept claims that the future is not deterministic, and that instead we have the capacity to create desired outcomes. The author highlights that most of the recent discussion on futures has had a one-dimensional focus on the evolution of technology, and that in fact, there is more to the future. Futures modeling should also encompass humanist facets, such as culture and ethics.

Interesting concept: Industry drives a linear concept of time, while subsistence drove a cyclical understanding of time.

Interesting quote: “A sense of fear and hopelessness often comes from not knowing enough.”

[Alexander · Rating 4 out of 5]

This was required reading for a course on future studies, but I enjoyed it quite a bit. Gidley gives a good overview of the field of futures studies and of some of the main currents within it.

The book is a strong resource for developing a future-oriented/integrated way of thinking and incorporates some aspects of systems thinking. I also found the last section—which covers major issues in the coming years and decades—helpful for inspiring oneself to get involved in creatively solving these problems.

[Valerie Brett · Rating 3 out of 5]

At first I was excited, then I was bored, then I was excited again. The first half of the book, at least, is really more of a history of the discipline of futures studies, which isn’t what I expected. I was bored at times but I am impressed that the author was able to cohete such a broad topic into a short introduction. Could have been more on the content of the topic rather than the discipline, I felt.

[Ceci Martin · Rating 3 out of 5]

Had to read this book for one of my courses but wanted to count it as it is a book and I did read it.

Very informative as a broad, general analysis of futures studies providing its history and contextual relevance to today’s world.

Gave 3 stars as I know it’s meant to be short but I felt it skipped over topics that could have benefitted from a more in-depth explanation. High emphasis on the background and history which was harder to get through as it felt like a textbook.

[Daniel Wright · Rating 2 out of 5]

Chapter 1: Three thousand years of futures
Chapter 2: The future multiplied
Chapter 3: The evolving scholarship of futures studies
Chapter 4: Crystal balls, flying cars, and robots
Chapter 5: Technotopian or human-centred futures?
Chapter 6: Grand global futures challenges

[Maria Lianou · Rating 2 out of 5]

2,5*

[Napalmlolita · Rating 2 out of 5]

Extremely dry take on a possibly fascinating subject. Not recommended to anyone.

[Richie Chan · Rating 4 out of 5]

For someone like me interested in futures literacy and the field, this is a good introductory, foundational text. Gidley's writing is straight to the point, she tries to avoid too much technical jargon which is highly appreciated.

I get a strong insight from having read some of the later parts to the book. I get the sense that there are two main strands of futures--one that is very technotopic and the other is paying attention to human becoming (posthuman for example). I gather than Gidley is trying to argue that researchers and scholars should contribute to future literature focused on human becoming (for example, evolution of human consciousness and what potential we have to harness and who we can become and transform into). This strand is perhaps one of the reasons why I have been so heavily invested in reading more about human agency, flourishing, ingenuity, potentiality, and such areas.