Sighting the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
Their hooves can be heard and they can be seen riding abreast in the not so distant mist.
Although professors Barnosky and Hadly wax optimistically as they close this alarming book, I have my doubts. Add several other horsemen to pestilence, war, famine and death, including pollution, global warming, over population, habitat degradation and perhaps worst of all, human nature, and the future looks terrifying. Each one of these is a “threat multiplier” which can be understood as “multiple threats” coming “together to add up to more than the sum of their parts.” (p. 209)
The authors lay the horrors to come out in nearly excruciating detail, chapter by chapter—that is, if we do nothing. This is where human nature comes in. It is our nature to relieve ourselves in the river and the pond; it is our nature to throw the chicken bones over our shoulders; it is our nature to just move on when the stench becomes too much. And when there were only a million or so humans on the planet this was okay. We could besmirch, spoil, pollute to our heart’s content without any significant long term consequence. We would just move on and of course the damage done would not be permanent since left to her own devices Mother Nature would heal herself. Not so anymore since there is really no place for us to move to and the kind of damage we are doing today with noxious and poisonous chemicals, metals, nuclear waste, etc. would take nature on her own many thousands of years to amend.
Barnosky and Hadly are not any sort of stay at home scientists. As a married couple they have been out in the jungles, the tundra, the deserts of the earth and in the muck and stench of poverty-stricken places both rural and urban all over the globe for twenty-five years. Hadly is an environmental biologist at Stanford University and Barnosky is a paleobiologist at the University of California, Berkeley. Their passion to find the truth about what is happening to the planet, and the horror of what they see coming is unmistakably and vividly reported. Each chapter is about one of the threats to the planet presented first as a personal experience during the many years they have been in the field and then as a detailed report on the facts as they know them from extensive research and collaboration.
Yes, this book should be required reading for high school students and by the members of the Congress of the United States. And yes it won’t be--well, some of the high school students will read it… And indeed it may be too late. What the authors see as a tipping point “is a landscape and seascape that has been so changed by humanity that our life-support systems are teetering precariously on the brink of collapse.” (p. 13) A tipping point can be understood as occurring just before a phase transition as in physics. Instead of water going from liquid to steam the planet can be seen as going from livable to hellish.
In a sense it could be said that we are the planet’s cancer, growing wildly amuck without regard for the life-sustaining ecosystems; in fact with wanton disrespect for the balance of flora and fauna which we devour, despoil and pollute like blind bacteria in a petri dish.
I want to point to one of the biggest threats not mentioned much anymore that the authors bring up, and that is too many people on the planet. Ever since Paul and Anne Ehrlich’s dire predictions in their 1968 book, “The Population Bomb” went bust (so to speak) it’s been politically and scientifically incorrect to cite over population as one of humanity’s problems. The conventional wisdom became that the planet’s human population would stabilize as more of the world’s women escaped poverty and became better educated and had easy access to contraception. The birthrates in Europe and Japan were cited as proof. However we already have too many people on the planet as evidenced by the billion or so who go to bed hungry every night. The authors estimate that we are currently using twice the earth’s carrying capacity in terms of resources. They project that as the under developed world gains middle class status they will want all the stuff people in the developed countries have. When that happens we will be exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet four or five times, and the tipping point will resolve into a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.
--Dennis Littrell, author of “The World Is Not as We Think It Is”