Reading Henry Kissinger is like listening to Dr. Mengele give tips on handling stress. He's revolting, strangely fascinating, and informative. This book is truer today than when it was written. Kissinger suffered the fate of Cassandra during his last years. He was prophetic, perceptive, and unheeded. Writing WORLD ORDER a dozen years ago, he warned us the contemporary world was marked by extreme disorder and would slide into chaos, anarchy, and hostile power blocks of competing states unless some means to restore a balance of power with legitimacy was found and practiced by statesmen willing to forsake temporary gain at home for a global equilibrium. Alas, No! WORLD ORDER examines the forbidding diplomatic landscape of the twenty-first century, how disorder emerged from a concept of order dating back to the seventeenth century, and the goals and strategies of today's major players. This book is also a study in Murphy's Law: Everything Kissinger assumed in 2014 could go wrong with U.S. foreign policy has gone wrong in 2026. Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
The world has experienced periods of order before, sometimes lasting close to a century. Kissinger defines this troublesome term in a two-fold manner: balance of power and legitimacy. First, world order is based on an equilibrium among major states, with the proviso that they keep minor states in line or prevent them from posing a threat. The balance of power must be neither too tight nor too expansive. A club of nations that is too restrictive has no room for a rising power to join in the future. That newcomer will be tempted to enter the ranks of the major powers by force, or what commentators have recently taken to calling "the Thucydides Trap", invoking ancient Athens and Sparta. Germany tried that gambit in two world wars with disastrous consequences for all concerned, and China might be led down that path today. A balance of power too broad gives its members too much maneuvering room to strike out at rivals. This is not a danger when a power intervenes in its own backyard; the Monroe Doctrine proclaiming American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and the Brezhnev Doctrine that held sway over Eastern Europe for four decades are sharp examples, but when a nation embarks on intervention far from home in a place of no consequence to its national security, the balance is endangered. Kissinger cites Soviet intervention in the Middle East and Africa in mounting threats to the global equilibrium during his time in office (1969-1977). An equilibrium, however, is not good enough to keep the peace. A world order must also enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of its participants and acceptance by outsiders. The players inside the consortium must agree to the rules: Mutual respect for sovereignty and each other's territory; a reasonable expansion of firepower each year; no interference in the domestic affairs of other members; and institutions to which rival powers may submit disputes for arbitration. These rules must seem legitimate and useful. Every state balances its own claims and objectives against the threat of punishment. In the proper balance, war is too costly to contemplate. Should the balance of power be deemed illegitimate, chaos is bound to ensue. The French revolutionaries of 1789 saw no reason to respect the European order then regnant. They felt it their right and duty to export the French Revolution to other lands ruled by monarchs and other despots. Iran, in Kissinger's eyes, has posed the same threat since its own revolution of 1979. The ayatollahs regard all states, including Muslim ones, to be illegitimate if they are ruled by something other than a Shiite republican theocracy.
World order exists for its own sake and not in pursuit of a higher objective, not even something noble like democracy or justice. That is why the United Nations, quite useful in areas like education and health, has proven highly ineffective at keeping the peace. Lofty goals must be matched by crafty appeals to self-interest. The first successful balance of power in the West, forged at Westphalia in 1648 after the horrific Thirty Years War, diffused the religious tension that had started and fueled the war by letting every German prince pick between Catholicism and Protestantism for his subjects. The Westphalian peace was not a crusade to enthrone Christianity in Europe or anywhere else. The second triumphant effort, at the Congress of Vienna in 1815 following the Napoleonic Wars, brought defeated France back into the league of European nations with an extra-continental agent, Great Britain, guaranteeing the balance of power on the continent. Why does such a world order not prevail today? Kissinger's culprits are many, ranging from nations to causes to technological breakthroughs. There is nothing so dangerous, he observes, as a country that mistakes itself for a cause: France in 1789; Russia after 1917; and the Ottoman Empire until it ran out of gas before the gates of Vienna in 1783. Ideologues, individuals and peoples who elevate absolute truth above self-interest are the greatest danger to world order. The Chinese, Russians, Israelis and Arabs can be reasoned with and, within limits, one may make concessions to them. Not so the Iranians, who are bent on a mission to convert the world to Shiite Islam. Their mirror image are Sunni fundamentalist groups, the Muslim Brotherhood and those further on the fringe, who aim to topple all states not ruled by Sharia law. Communism has lost all legitimacy and most adherents, but Islamism, of both Shia and Sunni varieties, must be contained, defanged, and only then possibly reconciled to any proposed world order.
Other carriers of world disorder may be less of an immediate threat yet no less worrisome. The rise of non-state actors, from non-governmental organizations to multinational corporations, hinders any attempt at a balance of power before the fact. Worse still for the world if these actors are armed, be they Islamic holy warriors, Hezbollah is a prime example for Kissinger, African warlords, or Latin American guerrillas. Such actors are having a field day due to porous borders that fuel transnational conflicts. In Africa, tiny Rwanda has grabbed a significant chunk of its giant neighbor, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, by launching an ethnic-based army into contested territory. Proxy wars like this are much more common in the post-Cold War world precisely because no major power exists to squash them. The technology of war has made weapons both cheaper and more lethal than at any time in human history. Africa is awash in guns, and even criminal gangs, including narcos, can go to war with their own states and across borders. A balance of power rests on the power of the state to exercise sovereignty over its own people, yet many states have lost all authority to enforce the law. Kissinger sadly concludes that we are on our way to the "state of nature" described by Hobbes in LEVIATHAN, of "a war of all against all", both between states and inside them. Such confrontations have the power to turn nuclear sooner rather than later. Kissinger advocates keeping the club of nuclear powers restricted to the seven nations that admit possession of nukes: the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan, and conceding de facto admission to the two that do not, Israel and North Korea. Other nations must follow the example of South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina and stop their programs, though he admits this sounds like "nuclear apartheid". Developments in information technology, the internet, social media, and cell phones, by providing instant access and pseudo-analysis of politics and diplomacy, have accelerated the process of global breakdown and made it worse. K. sounds weirdly post-modern when he bemoans the loss of individual identity and the habits of reflection and nuanced understanding to the juggernaut of the PC.
Kissinger's take on how the world arrived at a state of near anarchy starts with result and works its way back to cause. First comes an overview of the players contending for regional and at times global reach. When he became Secretary of State in 1973, Kissinger said it would be "The Year of Europe" in American diplomacy, until crises from Indochina to Chile to the Middle East turned his attention elsewhere. That's how he views Europe today, beautiful and irrelevant. The great achievements of the European Union (EU) and its predecessor, the Common Market, along with NATO, were economic recovery after 1945, with American help during the Marshall Plan, and returning Germany to its rightful place inside Europe rather than an existential danger from the outside. However, NATO lost its raison d'etre after the Cold War, and eastward expansion towards the frontiers of Russia is a dubious project, at best. The EU, without an army and under an American nuclear shield, must rely on the model of integration and humanitarian missions abroad to stay relevant, and those are hardly the marks of a great power. Oddly, Russia merits little space in this Kissinger opus. A Eurasian power without fitting in neatly in either continent, Russia has largely withdrawn from Soviet-era engagements in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America and, to paraphrase what Dean Acheson said about post-war Britain, "lost an empire and not found a role". Asia too, K. ponders, is busy trying to be born in a new world. The Japanese cannily utilized their defeat and occupation in 1945 to move into the U.S. camp during the Cold War while severely restricting their own defense forces in obedience to the American-written constitution. Both moves allowed Japan to focus almost exclusively on economic expansion. But today Japan's Cold War nemesis, the Soviet Union, is extinct, China poses no military threat but instead has turned into a major economic rival, and many Japanese question the validity of such close ties to America. One thing that might inflame Northeast Asia is the eccentric state of North Korea. Finding it impossible to compete economically with the South, the North is a rogue state armed with nuclear weapons that is adept at blackmail. The Kim dynasty is an embarrassment and burden to China, but the Chinese find its troublemaker role useful in any dealings with the U.S. and Japan. The North knows it could never survive an armed confrontation with the South and the U.S. and is willing to bet neither of these parties dares risk such a confrontation. This is a perfect formula for stagnation on the Korean Peninsula. India is a strange fruit in world affairs. Indian neutrality in the Cold War allowed the Nehru family to play off the superpowers against one another while India developed its own nuclear arsenal. In the twenty-first century, border disputes with China, the constant threat of nuclear war with Pakistan, and little influence outside the subcontinent keep India from contributing to world order for now.
Kissinger is an old China hand, and devotes dozens of pages to the puzzling Middle Kingdom. Communist China has inherited the messianic pretense of the Chinese Empire, "the center of the World" while dropping, under Deng, its policy of isolation. Still, these two strains in the Chinese weltanschauung contradict each other; since China is too good for the rest of the world, why integrate with it? Nevertheless, Kissinger credits Deng and his successors with developing a foreign policy that while not contributing to world order does not, at the moment, cause global disruption either. The Chinese characteristically hold back from full confrontation while exerting power. China fought a war with Vietnam in 1979 to contain Hanoi. Beijing's border skirmishes with India have never reached critical mass. Taiwan in an issue the Communist leaders are willing to put off the table for future resolution. Chinese claims on island territory in the Pacific are not backed by a strong navy. Above all, Chinese diplomatic and trade disputes with the West, starting with the U.S., are kept within bounds by Beijing lest they harm the Chinese economy. China, unlike Germany in the twentieth century, may be admitted to the concert of nations peacefully and in due time.
The Middle East has been the problem child of U.S. foreign policy at least since 1967, and is at the same time the site of Kissinger's greatest triumphs; the disengagement accords between Egypt, Syria, and Israel from 1973-1977, and still in force, K. notes with pride. Why then, has there been no lasting peace? The parties in this conflict are intransigent in different ways. The Israelis are tough on the issue of ceding any of their territory. The Arabs, Egypt and Jordan aside, (this was before the Abrahamic Accords) withhold recognition of Israel until the Palestinian question is settled. But, a Palestinian state cannot be established until the Israelis are guaranteed safe borders, bringing the question back to land. The Saudis, with their rich desert kingdom, substantial Shia minority, and unable to defend their borders, want only gradual change in the status quo. The Joker in this deck is Iran. A country and a cause on the cusp of building an atomic bomb is the nightmare scenario for both Arabs and Israelis. The Iranians must curtail their regional ambitions before the U.S. may cautiously engage them in talks. It remains to be seen, K. cautions, whether Iran is truly willing to negotiate the future of its nuclear program or just buying time by making small tactical concessions.
The world has reached a stage of near anarchy because the U.S. gradually lost its axial role in the balance of power forged after 1945. Kissinger sees this failure in philosophical terms. From the founding of the republic Americans have been torn between wanting to see their model of peaceful democracy take hold overseas, typified by Woodrow Wilson at Versailles, and striking a balance of power between foreign nations and the U.S., a path favored by Theodore Roosevelt. Americans regard the making of such a balance as a dirty business best left to Europeans, yet they cannot easily discard it either. Franklin Roosevelt brilliantly blended these two rivers during the Second World War, though he was naive to entrust the future of peace to the United Nations. Truman crafted a world order after 1945 built around military alliances, starting with the Truman Doctrine in Western Europe. NATO contained the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991, and gave Europeans the security they needed to recover. However, he acted disastrously in Korea by first authorizing a takeover of the North in the name of democracy, and then limiting the war to the defense of the South in the face of Chinese intervention. Eisenhower was an apt player of balance of power politics, negotiating with Khrushchev from a position of strength, but unfortunately under Kennedy and Johnson the U.S. launched a crusade in Vietnam to build a free nation in the South while bombing but not invading the North. America lost more than a war in Vietnam, K. lectures. It lost confidence in itself to have a foreign policy at all. Many "critics of the war" thought the U.S. was the evil party, and not just in Indochina. It would be better to retreat and remain safe and pure at home. Moralism, Kissinger's bete noire, had returned to plague America. The time had come for a return to realpolitik. Kissinger pats himself and Nixon, "something of a Wilsonian", on the back for rearranging the world after 1969. Vietnam war nothing but a eyesore in U.S. foreign policy. Bombing the North and propping up the South was required to gain time for the U.S. to evacuate Indochina. The real challenge was to negotiate with Russia and China separately and get them to see each stood to gain more by building bridges with America than in propping up proxies abroad. China proved the tougher target. Nixon never interfered in Chinese domestic affairs, criticized human rights violations by the Communists, or promoted American democracy to Mao. A de facto alliance between Washington and Beijing against Moscow, and later strong economic ties between them worked best at preserving the peace in Asia, and still does.
Kissinger's assessment of U.S. wars since 1945 is stark and sobering. In only one war were American objectives reached. Korea ended in a tie; Vietnam was lost; the Persian Gulf War, limited by George H.W. Bush to expelling Saddam Hussein from Kuwait and nothing more, came to fruition; the Iraq War, launched by his son, turned disastrous when the U.S. undertook nation-building; and the Afghanistan War, still going on when this book was published, is headed in the same direction. What went wrong with all these ventures, save one, is what Kissinger on one occasion called "confusing foreign policy with missionary work". America can certainly declare principles for which it stands, liberty, democracy, self-determination, human rights, and propose them at international forums like the United Nations. In fact, few nations would follow America's lead if it did not. But, to make these principles the operating tool and goal of American diplomacy, and insist that other nations adopt them too, is a recipe for frustration and disaster.
Kissinger ends his survey of world disorder with a worst-case scenario: America and other developed states confront the specter of isolationism. A nationalist demagogue employing the tools of the information age and sucking up to the electorate by offering short, painless solutions to national and international problems is elected and proceeds to withdraw from the world, turning his country into a fortress while other nations do the same. Such a world would split up into rival power blocks and zones of interest, and that is the very opposite of a balance of power. Europeans thought that way at the start of the twentieth century and a world war followed consequently. Europe and America dissolved into isolationism in the Twenties and the result was Hitler, militarist Japan, and another world war. American power went into decline after Vietnam and the world lost the one nation that could keep enemies at bay. Are we on the brink of another war? Kissinger thinks for now the powerful states will trade insults and shoot tariffs, not artillery shells at one another, but he still believes in the power of reason. Who yet does?