فوبيا داعش وأخواتها

by Gwynne Dyer (ترجمة : رامي طوقان)

"Don't panci" ومعناها "لا تذعر" أو "فوبيا داعش وأخواتها" تتعدد العناوين والظاهرة واحدة (الإرهاب) هذه المسألة التي باتت من عناوين الساعة، يقف "غوين داير" في هذا الكتاب على أسرار نشوئها وقوتها وانتشارها في محاولة للكشف عما خفي واستعصى وامتنع على الفهم حول هذه الأصوليات الدينية وأهدافها النهائية؛ ففي المقدمة التي يفتتح بها المؤلف عمله يشير إلى أن هذه التنظيمات "-سواء أكانت تنظيم القاعدة أو داعش أو النصرة أو بوكو حرام أو حركة الشباب أو غيرها- جيمعها تتألف من مقاتلين لديهم برامج سياسية، وليست مجرد تجمعات من حاملي الأسلحة. قد تبدو هذه البرامج السياسية بالنسبة إلى أولئك الذين لا يشاركونهم قناعاتهم الدينية وكأنها تبدأ من منطلقات تكاد لا تصدق، وتنتهي بأحلام تكاد تكون سيريالية. ولكن، مما لا شك فيه أن جميع تصرفات هذه الجماعات -بما في ذلك أقسى التصرفات وأشدها مرضية- محسوبة بدقة بهدف الوصول إلى تحقيق هذه البرامج".
لهذه الأسباب وغيرها يناقش الكتاب عبر عدة نقاط مرسومة هذه القضية المعقدة والشائكة والتي باتت تطرح أسئلتها المربكة على الجميع عرباً وغربيين، مسلمين وغير مسلمين، لذا فإن غوين داير يبدأ بـ "أولها بيان سبب تحول العالم الإسلامي -وعلى الأخص العالم العربي- إلى مركز عالمي للإرهاب (خاصة مع كون الغالبية العظمى من ضحايا الإرهاب مسلمين عموماً، وعرباً على وجه الخصوص). وثانيها شرح الطريقة التي يعمل بها الإرهاب؛ أعني بيان كيف أن الإرهاب في الكثير من الأحيان (ولكن ليس في كل الأحيان) يساعد ممارسي أساليبه في الاقتراب من أهدافهم المصرح بها. أما ثالثها فمتابعة كيفية تطور الاستراتيجيات والمنظمات الإرهابية في العالم العربي؛ إذ شهدت تحولات كبيرة عبر الزمن. وأخيراً، سأقدم في هذا الكتاب بعض الأفكار عما يجب علينا أن نفعله لمجابهة "التهديد الإرهابي". وبهذا المعنى يقدم مؤلف الكتاب مفردات جديدة تعالج الأزمة فيما يخص "فوبيا داعش وأخواتها" ويتقدم باتجاه صوغ مفاهيم وأطر وقواعد جديدة علينا مراجعتها ومناقشتها إذا ما أردنا العيش داخل التاريخ وليس خارجه، سواء على مستوى وطن أو إقليم أو على مستوى العالم.
يتوزع الكتاب على عشرة فصول جاءت تحت العناوين الآتية: مقدمة، الفصل الأول: فهم كل شيء لا يعني معرفة كل شيء. الفصل الثاني: لا يتعلق الأمر بك دائماً. الفصل الثالث: الجهاد: المرحلة الأفغانية 2001-2003. الفصل الرابع: الجهاد: المرحلة العراقية 2003-2006. الفصل الخامس: الجهاد: المرحلة العراقية 2006-2010. الفصل السادس: الجهاد: العراق وسورية 2010-2013. الفصل السابع: الخلافة أخيراً!. الفصل الثامن: البحث عن الاستراتيجية. الفصل التاسع: محاربون أجانب وحروب العلامات المسجلة. الفصل العاشر: أهون الشرين.

Genres: History, Politics, Nonfiction, Religion, Middle East, Terrorism

155 pages, Paperback

First published October 13, 2015

About the author

Gwynne Dyer, OC is a London-based independent Canadian journalist, syndicated columnist and military historian.

Dyer was born in St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador (then the Dominion of Newfoundland) and joined the Royal Canadian Naval Reserve at the age of sixteen. While still in the naval reserve, he obtained a BA in history from Memorial University of Newfoundland in 1963; an MA in military history from Rice University in Houston, Texas, in 1966; and a PhD in military and Middle Eastern history at King's College London in 1973. Dyer served in the Canadian, American and British naval reserves. He was employed as a senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 1973–77. In 1973 he began writing articles for leading London newspapers on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and soon decided to abandon academic life for a full-time career in journalism. In 2010, he was appointed an Officer of the Order of Canada.

Reviews

[Will Ansbacher · Rating 5 out of 5]

A short, illuminating, book from a journalist who has more insight into the Middle East than most political commentators. It’s not a lot longer than a review article, but packed with useful history of the area and the rise of fundamentalism and terror attacks.
What to do about it? Well, nothing really, Dyer argues, as the Western nations aren’t the primary target here. Terror is designed to goad the West into invading wherever ISIS wants to take control in the aftermath of the mayhem that invasion will bring. Which was the exact outcome of the US’s disastrous blunder into Iraq in 2003 – even though, from the fundamentalists’ perspective, it was one invasion that they couldn't have foreseen.

One rather repellent outcome of his analysis is that rather than bringing him down, the West should be doing “something” to support Assad in Syria, to prevent further gains by ISIS there. If that is rather more than unpalatable, Dyer points out that the West, and the US in particular, has an unsavoury history of supporting dictatorial butchers around the world, regarding them (rightly or wrongly) as the lesser evil of that time and place. (And which should have applied to Saddam Hussein, of course, but did not.) So no dangerous precedent there.

Hmm, not a pleasant place to be. But I have a feeling that with Trump playing kissy-face to Putin, and with Russia already in thick with Syria, that’s just where we’re going.

[Dale White · Rating 5 out of 5]

It is hard to rate a book on a topic that so few of us truly understand, but I am giving Dwyer the benefit of the doubt here based on his reputation and assume that much of what he says is grounded in truth and logic.

I picked the book up a couple of days before the attack on Paris but read it after the attacks. It becomes somewhat difficult to not panic after those events but Dwyer makes the case that we have to respond to this terror cautiously. After 9/11, the response in Afghanistan was measured but moving into Iraq was a mistake. Dwyer emphasizes that extreme responses to ISIS attacks only pours fuel on an already out of control fire and ultimately drives supporters to ISIS.

Anyway, if you want to read a book that sums up the quagmire of Iraq and Syria and ISIS and Al Queda and the Sunnis and the Shiites and the American/West involvement, then this short informative book should be at the top of your list.

[Mohamed Al Sayyah · Rating 4 out of 5]

كتاب ممتاز وموضوعي عن ظاهرة الدولة الإسلامية (داعش) بدءاً من أسباب ظهورها وانشقاقها عن القاعدة مروراً بتمددها وسيطرتها على مساحات شاسعة من العراق وسورياً انتهاءاً بمقترحات لكيفية القضاء عليها.

[Malcolm Pellettier · Rating 4 out of 5]

Wildly informative, and rather terrifying (despite the title)

Never really occurred to me that Al Qaeda and IS are both playing from the 19th century Anarchists' playbook, virtually note for note, which is all well and good until you remember that it might've been an anarchist who started WWI (archduke Ferdi, Gavrillo Princip) though he may've just been a Serb Nationlist.

Given what just happened tonight - and do recall that the Charlie Hebdo massacres were carried by Yemeni AlQaeda/IS sympathizers, and thus only tangentially, at best, related to either Syria or Iraq, I bloody hope, they pick the right folks against whom to retaliate.

Moreover, by repeatedly retaliating, the west is simply playing into the aforementioned script/playbook. This is local politics, in which AQ/IS are trying to gull the West, and thus far, we've bitten - hook, line, sinker, and boat.

Depressing.

[Charles · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is a good analysis of the factors that led to the rise of Isis/Isil/Daesh, as a result of the Sunni-Shiite conflict, the invasion of Iraq & the decision by the Americans to dismiss the Iraqi army & police & the high standing bureaucrats who had the experience to run the country & who were suddenly left unemployed & resentful & who had the skills to form an effective opposition. Moreover Iraq had been run by Sunnis since the breakup of the Ottoman empire in spite of its Shiite majority. Following the American invasion & the establishment of a new government after an election, which guaranteed its being now run by Shiites, and which was riddled with corruption, the Sunnis began to form opposition movements which solidified around fundamentalist Sunni leaders & led to groups which were initially associated with Al Qaeda, but subsequently overtook it with an equally fundamentalist point of view & religion, but with a far more visibly bloodthirsty approach aimed at creating a Caliphate in the Levant demanding submission by Sunnis to their fundamentalist belief set, or death-while Shiites viewed as apostates merited death, as did other minorities. Several other fundamentalist movements pledged submission to the Caliph(al Baghdadi) & the movement acquired a growing success in recruiting from all over the world, and was able to pay their soldiers' wages & their other considerable expenses by taking over significant parts of the country, and especially oil wells , which provided a multimillion dollar income when sold on the black market. G.Dwyer titled the book "Don't panic" as he felt the major threat was to the Middle East where the "Caliphate" wanted to expand , though the horrible attack in Paris in mid November 2015 showed that foreign aggression, like 9/11, was on the books. He felt that the present approach was not likely to succeed, and that it would be better to support al Assad & the Syrian army, in a united front in which the US & Russia & others would crush Isis by massive bombardments aimed at their oil, their headquarters & training camps, etc...The issue of the recruitment
from other countries, especially Europe was not discussed, but the disaffected young men in urban ghetto-like suburbs-with low education & high unemployment need to be addressed to cut off the process of feeding the movement.

[Dorothy · Rating 5 out of 5]

Gwynne Dyer is a brilliant journalist with a Ph.D in Middle East History so that when he writes about terrorism stemming from that part of the world, we do well to listen. Dyer explains the growth of terrorist groups and what it is they want from the world and why is it that they are killing each other because of differences of religion. A must-read for anyone who wants to know what is going on there and why the West should not be trapped into interfering.

[Phoenix · Rating 4 out of 5]

Mostly Harmless?

This review is from: Don't Panic: ISIS, Terror and Today's Middle East (Paperback)
Canadian journalist Gwynne Dyer provides a well done sweeping analysis of the progression from Al Queda to the Islamic State along with a breakdown on the major players, mistakes and options going forward. The approach is really a journalistic summary well suited for people are concerned about the future of American involvement in the region. As part of the downside – the supporting footnotes are sparse and there are no maps. Both are important to support a case.

Essentially Al-Queda begat ISIS through bin Ladin's provision of $200,000 seed money to the Jordanian born terrorist al-Zarqari. After al-Zarqawi 's demise in 2006 the group he ran renamed itself from al-Tawhid wal-Jihad to Islamic State of Iraq which sounded more Iraqi, even though it was now run by Ayyub al Masri – a former Egyptian colonel who named Abu Omar al Baghdadi as spiritual leader. Once ISIS controlled a reasonably large swath of territory Baghdadi declared the caliphate (like Highlander, there can be only one) and renamed ISIS Daesh or Islamic State (IS). The creates a dilemma for other Islamic factions – either recognize the caliphate or be accused of apostasy.

Al Queda's own 5 point strategy was formulated by co-founder Saif al Adel: Attack the far enemy (the US) to induce them to come near. These attacks would cause civilian casualties locally which would be used to recruit more jihadists to the Islamic "cause". Create loosely connected franchises to al-Queda in other countries and support them with advice and encouragement, but not command and control. The West's top heavy response to asymmetric warfare will cause their economies to collapse, forcing withdrawal leaving the Islamic resistance movements in control. This is what happened to the Soviet Union with their ill advised invasion of Afghanistan so it should work a second time. The end result should be a world-wide caliphate by 2020.

Where al-Queda and the ISIS have differed is that the latter has a more active hatred of Shias whom they view as heretics, and it is against Shias that they have prioritized their attacks, citing Saladin who said “I will not fight the Crusaders while my back is exposed to the Shia.” And while Dyer characterizes al-Queda as “pragmatic and flexible” (pp4), the evidence is that description is applicable to IS as it has been able to secure territory, weapons and financing on a far greater scale than al-Queda. Both have been effective in terror, IS has been far more “pragmatic” in it destruction of human life and and in in establishing a form of brutal governance whereas al-Queda spends more time theorizing. Dyer also considers that most of the damage has already been done. Mixed Shia/Sunni neighbourhoods have already mostly disappeared due to infighting and people who have needed to flee have fled, Baghdad's population of 6 million is too large for an organization the size of IS to conquer.

I thought Dyer was doing very well... until it came to his final recommendation – bite the bullet and back Assad as the least worst alternative. Loan him money for food and arms and then sell them to him. IMV that sucks for many reasons, but principally because of what Syrian lawyer and activist Hassan al Bunni once said which is that in the Arab Middle East the Regime's strategy is to argue that as bad as they are, the alternative is far worse – but that's only true because this has been their strategy from day one – its far easier to suppress moderates and to tolerate the extremists – moderates don't shoot back. Dyer is probably right – one should avoid giving either IS or al-Queda what they want and the West's preoccupation with creating a 3rd force using democratic moderates is pure fantasy. He may also be wrong – Assad is unlikely to recover all of Syria, may not want to, may set his sights on Lebanon and certainly won't go after IS in Iraq.

A very good read for a current backgrounder but ephemeral - it will date itself quickly, and there is not enough there on the impact of Iran and Russia. His final conclusion while interesting I find difficult to endorse. 4* for today, but 3* in 2017.

[Roberta · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was a neighbourhood book club read. It's well researched, accessible, timely and well written and stimulated a good discussion. My problem with it was that it is it very fact dense with no real narrative to hold it all together in my mind. I kept forgetting who the players were and finally had to create a story line of my own. It was refreshing to discover that the West is not the main thing on Muslim minds.

[Frances · Rating 3 out of 5]

A little out of date now this book does give you the background into that is happening in the Middle East and some who's who.

[Philip Mantler · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good, if somewhat dated, explanation of what is happening in the middle east and why.

[Charles · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book was hard to read because it's such, such a great book. Each page contains fascinating information so you can't help but want to stop and process what you just read, but at the same time his writing style is so readable and seamless, that you don't want to stop. It would have been a quick read if I didn't constantly feel like I needed to stop and take (I counted, 25 pages of) notes for fear of forgetting what I'd read after returning the book to the library.

[Arjun · Rating 3 out of 5]

"Don't Panic: ISIS, Terror and Today's Middle East" provides a comprehensive analysis of the complex factors that led to the rise of ISIS and its impact on the Middle East. Insightful and well-researched, this book offers a sobering perspective on the region's geopolitical challenges, making it an essential read for those seeking deeper understanding."

[Rob Hocking · Rating 4 out of 5]

A lot of overlap with black flags, but interestingly the two accounts contradict one another in a few places. Also, Black Flags seems to present the regime in Turkey in quite a positive light, whereas this book is not so kind.

[Adam McPhee · Rating 5 out of 5]

Dyer's best book since Climate Wars.

Sadly a little too relevant given yesterday's attacks in Paris. But Dyer does a brilliant job of explaining the often complicated history and motivations of the various Islamist sects. Most of the book focuses on the differences between al Qaeda and ISIS. Al Qaeda, Dyer argues, are fanatics who live in the world of history, and are less likely to attack other Muslims, whereas Islamic State has an explicit millenarian ideology and tend to be far more interested in slaughtering those they see as heretical Muslims.

He also makes the argument for a golidlocks approach to stopping Islamic State: the West will need to hold its nose and cooperate with Assad by supplying the regime with air support and cheap credit (which also means giving up on trying to pass embargoes through the UN), and America in particular will need to come to terms with the need to coordinate militarily with Iran and Russia.

The most important point that Dyer stresses is the need not to overreact. Occasional terrorist attacks are part of the cost of doing business in the modern world. Their objective is not to win through conventional military means, but to force opposing governments to overreact in their response, driving people who would otherwise be neutral to sympathize with terrorists, the classic example of this being the insurgency that formed after the disastrous handling of the occupation of Iraq. It's a familiar point, but one that bears constant repeating.

[Matthew Williams · Rating 4 out of 5]

As always, Dyer provides a detailed and thorough summations of the forces currently affecting the Middle East, offering historical context and commentary that puts it in perspective. He also offers some sobering thoughts on the role western nations play in it that goes far beyond the usual rhetoric or finger pointing that is so common in today's world. And last, but not least, he also provides some helpful thoughts on how western nations can address the situation created by the rise of the Islamic State and the massive humanitarian crisis this has caused.

In an age where the tendency to think in terms of only ourselves, assume that terrorist movements in the Middle East are all about us, and where the temptation to overreact is profound, he offers some simple but stunningly smart advice - Stay calm and look at things rationally!

[Alicia Low · Rating 4 out of 5]

I picked this up to read because I wanted to understand the situation in the Middle East, and its implications for Muslims around the world (especially in Malaysia). Does the book do a good job explaining things? I think so. I remain confused, but I think that has less to do with the quality of the book and more to do with the manymany different considerations involved. I just can't get everything straight, in my head, because it's messy. It's terrifying. I don't know what to believe, in terms of how factual Dyer's account is, or what the appropriate course of action is, or whether all people have goodness within them. So all I can do is pray.

[Jim Hestand · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is an excellent primer for understanding the current situation in the middle east. The author gives a chronological overview of the development of ISIS and its reason for being. He summarizes fundamentalist Islam's eschatology and how it drives the actions of Islamic State. He also gives his analysis of the world's response to these events and recommendations for future policy to deal with the current chaotic situation. It is easy to read and very interesting and I highly recommend it to anyone who wants to better understand Islamic extremism.

[Mahyar · Rating 5 out of 5]

A great read (as always!) from the Canadian war journalist and historian Gwynn Dyer. He gives a clear-headed view on the escalating conflict in the middle east and its origins, without resorting to tin-hat conspiracy theories or apocoloyptic hyperbole. He focuses on the historical/ethnical/political underpinnings of the conflicts and gives an overview of their development in the past 20 years. A must-read for anyone who wants a better understanding of the Middle East, one that can't be obtained by years of watching CNN and Fox.

[Winterwarrior99 · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent summary of the history and current (late 2015) positioning of Al Qaeda and IS. Various Western government positions and tactics reviewed and potential scenarios presented.
As a person with some (evening news) knowledge of the area, this book greatly expanded my understanding of the difficulties and why the present is what it is.
At 209 pages, the book provides interesting insight and is well worth the time.

[Josh T · Rating 5 out of 5]

If you read any book on ISIS, read THIS one! This is a short read. It is written in such a way that the complexities of the middle east make far more sense. This book assumes you know little to nothing, which is great because most books require some foreknowledge to grasp. You dont get hung up on acronyms or complex jargon. I must say it was in engaging and enlightening read. Everyone should read this before making any assumptions about what they think is going on in the middle east.

[Nunya · Rating 5 out of 5]

Truly excellent primer on ISIS and the events in Iraq and Syria, prior to, during and following the American occupation of Iraq. Really gives a good sense of what's going on, why, and how much of a big deal it really is, or is not, while also giving some insight into the political plays going on. Definitely recommend.

[Raimo Wirkkala · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dyer offers an educational history of how we've arrived at the current sorry state of affairs in the Middle East and concludes by offering up a distasteful but well-reasoned course of action. Anyone struggling to understand what ISIS really means to our world will find this book helpful.

[Tony Latour · Rating 4 out of 5]

Mostly collects and elaborates on the columns he has written over the years about the current situation in the Middle East with regard to ISIS. It is always good to have some clear-headed analysis of the situation there and I thought the book provided that nicely.

[Sheri Robinson · Rating 3 out of 5]

Gwynne Dyer explains world events and actions like no one else can. If you are interested in a deeper understanding of what is happening in the middle east and the history behind it, this is the book for you!

[Les · Rating 5 out of 5]

Typically calm and cogent analysis; worth reading if you are somehow under the impression that western intervention in the Syrian civil war somehow makes sense.