A lot has happened within the last 10 days since I’ve read this book about foreign diplomacy: Britain has a new Prime Minister, there’s another series of attacks in Damascus, HK’s protestors are being met with anti-democratic actions, North Korea has fired its second missile test, and Trump now has a go signal from the US Congress to build his wall. That’s why I find it eerie that this book, which was written three years earlier, has chapters dedicated to the specific topics on the future of US-UK relationship, the on-going war on Syria, the world movement toward democracy, the dynamics of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and the American policy on immigration…some of the things that are variables to the US playing a key role in maintaining the world order.
And yet this book I’m referring to—my second #1bookamonth as a follow-up reading to ‘When China Rules The World’—is entitled “A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order” Wow, sakto. The book, claimed by critics, is a good starting point if you want a crash course of foreign diplomacy. Wow, sakto another.
See, I began having an insatiable curiosity about international diplomacy three years ago when I started following the television series Madam Secretary. I was mesmerized with nice-sounding words like economic sanctions, inducement strategies, bilateral trade agreements, humanitarian interventions, aid packages, coalitions, treaties, UN resolutions. Which lead me to wanting to know more! I wish to understand the concepts behind policy formation, negotiation styles, diplomatic means, appeasement strategies, incentives…then, perhaps, apply some of the thinking in my way of innovating the problem-solving I do for advertising.
Back to the book. It’s author, Richard Haas, served as policy adviser under US Secretary of State Colin Powell, and was in the thick of things when the world was maneuvering its way through the Middle East crisis. He is also a lecturer and an author of several other books on international relations. The book has a central thesis: Why is it that even in the absence of the principal source of disorder—the major power-conflict between supercountries—the world order, 25 years post-Cold War, is now in a state of disarray?
(Commercial: World order. Ano ba yun? It’s not order = peace. World order is a term used in international relations to describe (or, for me, plot) the distribution of power among countries or world powers. Kumabaga, which countries at a given point in history share the key roles in shaping the world economy, politics, and structure. Having said that, going back to the question – why is this world order is such a disarray?)
“Populism and nationalism are on the rise. What we are witnessing is a widespread rejection of globalization and international involvement and, as a result, a questioning of long-standing postures and policies, from openness to trade and immigrants to a willingness to maintain alliances and overseas commitments.”
The premise is that America—the current sole superpower after a long period of US-USSR power struggle, and as such, the major influencer of world order—is already losing power, thus, crumbling along with it are certain views and values that has held the world together into a kind of an international society.
“United States, long the dominant building blocks of international relations, are losing some—and in select cases much—of their sway to other entities. Power is distributed in more hands now than any time in history. Decision making has come to be more decentralized. Globalization, with its vast, fast flows of just about anything and everything real and imaginable across borders is a reality that governments often cannot monitor, much less manage. The gap between the challenges generated by globalization and the ability of a world to cope with them appears to be widening in a number of critical domains. The US remains the most powerful entity in the world, but its share of global power is shrinking, as its ability to translate the considerable power it does have into influence, trends that reflect internal, political, social, demographic, cultural, and economics within the United States as well as shifts in the outside world. The result is a world in which the centrifugal forces are gaining the upper hand.”
In short, the US-led world order is fucking up.
The book is divided into three parts. I’d call them Optimism, Fatalism, then, perhaps, Realism ha ha ha
The first part is a nice field trip throughout the history of international relations. It covers the early days of modern state systems in the mid-17th century, through two world wars of the twentieth century, and on the end of the Cold War. Dito na pumapasok yung US-USSR power-struggle and the other orders happening around that era like the beginnings of anti-nuclear, anti-genocide, anti-chemical weapons conventions and the global alliances and international policies that came off them. Hanggang sa maging US-led world order na sya with the breaking up USSR. This is World Order 1.0 where the era is described as ‘filled with optimism and confidence’.
“Order, such as it was, revolved around states and above all the major powers of the day. The principal element of the new order was a shared respect for one another’s sovereignty, something that reduced the frequency and intensity of meddling in what was understood to be one another’s internal affairs, and as a result, the chance of war. Buttressing acceptance of this principle—a common definition of what was legitimate then it comes to foreign policy—were a balance of power and regular diplomatic process that helped managed that could turn out to be challenges to the existing order.”
The second part is where we are now, the crumbling of the US-led world order as we’ve experienced over the last years. As mentioned earlier, this portion of the book tackles the conundrum wherein wala naman nang global power-struggle dahil it’s just US at the helm and everyone else follows – but why has the world optimism and confidence plummeted? Why, from order, are we experiencing disorder, or as the author has termed it, disarray?
“The trend toward disorder has been a function of structural changes in the international system—above all, the diffusion of capacity into more hands than ever before—exacerbated at critical times by the action (and inaction) of the United States and other powers. The result is a world not just of more capacity in more hands but also more decision makers and independent actors. Consequently, a host of global and regional challenges have emerged that are proving to be far more than the major powers can contend with. A short list of these challenges would include the actual and potential of nuclear weapons and long range delivery systems [Note: Connected to certain breakdown of the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPR], terrorism [Note: Connected to non-UN approved or ‘illegitimate’ attacks of the US on certain foreign soils], a spike in the numbers of refugees and displaced persons [Note: Connected to the debatable role of humanitarian intervention], a chaotic Middle East [Note: Connected to the Syrian issue and the balancing act of Arab control in the region], a Europe under siege [Note: Connected to Brexit, recently], a precariously balanced Asia-Pacific [Note: Connected to China-centered territorial disputes], a largely ungoverned cyberspace [Note: Connected to the rise of cyberwars], an inadequate response to climate change [Note: Connected to agreements in principle but not in practice], a growing rejection of free trade and immigration [Note: Connected to the global gap of cooperation in some areas and lacking in most], and the potential for a pandemic that could cost many million of lives [Note: Connected to the role of WHO and the cost of commitment from powerful countries].”
The final part is rather prescriptive – What is to be done to stabilize global governance? What can the US do (and not do) to fix its internal affairs that are crucially connected to its influence on international affairs, how can regional issues be addressed—the Middle East conflicts, the Asian disputes, the African humanitarian concerns, the Latin America’s rising favor toward authoritarianism rule, the European Brexit problem—and, how can the global gap be closed as part of moving toward World Order 2.0
“What is done and how it is done matter a great deal […] Under Donald Trump, however, foreign policy shows clear signs of departing from this legacy. Support for alliances, embrace of free trade, concern over climate change, championing of democracy and human rights, American leadership per se—these and other fundamentals of American foreign policy have been questioned and, more than once, rejected. Trump is the first post-World War II American president to view the burdens of world leadership as outweighing the benefits. As a result, the US has changed from principal preserver of order to principal disrupter. The Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy is hardly the one cause of increased disarray in the world, but it is a significant one and surely the most expected […] United States has now introduced a means by which a major power forfeits international advantage. It is abdication, the voluntary relinquishing of power and responsibility. It is brought more by choice than by circumstances either at home or abroad.”
What stayed with me is the author’s introduction of the concept of sovereign obligation. First, he makes it clear that ‘sovereign as responsibility’ is a fundamentally different idea, “which involves a government’s responsibilities to its own citizens and how it forfeits some of the traditional protections and benefits of sovereignty if it fails to live up to those responsibilities, as in Right to Protect (R2P). Whereas, ‘sovereign obligation’ is something altogether different. “It is about a government’s obligations to other governments and through them the citizens of other countries.” Tayong lahat ay may pananagutan sa isa’t-isa, as a popular church hymn goes.
Fast forward to North Korea being allowed to keep its nuclear weapons. Russian occupation of Crimea, India-Pakistan disputes, failing state of Libya, Venezuelan dictatorship influence, China gaining world dominance, and like what I started with, Britain with its new PM, HK’s battle for democracy, Syria under attack yet again, and Trump winning in his pro-security/anti-immigration fight. What does this mean for me?
Right now, it’s a kind of broad awareness that I need to keep me grounded, or centered, or dispassionate when I feel like snapping someone’s neck. “Jao, there are bigger things that matter more,” I’d tell myself, then breathe, ha ha ha. But seriously, this book is teaching me the value of follow through. Yup. The world is in disarray because a lot of good-natured promises that were made lacked the follow through. Coalitions that stopped acting, treaties that that are only good in paper, resolutions that were never enforced. We can learn a great deal from what abdication could do.
#1bookamonth
#AworldInDisarray
#RichardHaas