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Road to Ruin
The global economy has made what seems like an incredible comeback after the financial crisis of 2008 Yet this comeback is artificial Central banks have propped up markets by keeping interest rates low and the supply of money freeflowing They wont bail us out again next time And there will be a next time soon In The Road to Ruin bestselling author James Rickards identifies how governments around the world are secretly preparing an alternative strategy for the next big crisis a lockdown Instead of printing money to reliquify markets and prop up assets governments are preparing to close banks shut down exchanges and order powerful asset managers not to sell Theyre putting provisions in place that will allow them to do so legally Whats more the global elite has already started making their own preparations including hoarding cash and hard assets When the next one comes it will be the average investor who suffers most unless he or she heeds Rickards warning and prepares accordingly
352 pages, Paperback
First published November 15, 2016
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2098 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 117 reviews
November 24, 2016
A serious contender to the prize of most important book of the year. Timely, serious, intellectually honest, with deep, articulate reflections (that Rickards have been honing in these last years, through articles, interviews and books) about the true state of the world, as filtered through its inerent complexity and lurking dangers -- and what can be individually made for preparation purposes.
All in all, I was surprised by the quality of the effort; I should probably have known better, as Rickards managed to systematically win me over, time and again, with observations of this calibre: "Injustice has always existed. The poor are always at a disadvantage to the rich when it comes to defending themselves in court. Still, what’s happening today—not only in New York, but throughout America—is new. It is not mere injustice, it is institutionalized, systematic injustice supported by military-grade armor and tactics. The injustice is driven not merely by bad intent, but by a need for money. The system now feeds on itself, unable to pay its way. Inputs exceed outputs, marginal returns are negative. Wealth extraction replaced wealth creation as the way to get along. This is the endgame of a complex dynamic system past the point of no return."
There is much more. For instance: "Free market approaches do not work for banks because banks are subsidized, insured, regulated, and implicitly guaranteed. Modern banks are the opposite of free market institutions, so different approaches are needed. This seemed lost on the Bush Treasury."
Or: "They are warnings—tremors ahead of a misfortune beyond imagining. This is not conjecture, but an expected outcome given the system dynamics. This outcome is not inevitable. Still, it is likely. To step back from the brink requires smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less leverage, and sound money, perhaps with reference to gold. None of these remedies is in prospect; a systems failure is."
"Fascism is not in our future, it is here now."
Absolutely brilliant essay on the most fundamental issue of the age.
All in all, I was surprised by the quality of the effort; I should probably have known better, as Rickards managed to systematically win me over, time and again, with observations of this calibre: "Injustice has always existed. The poor are always at a disadvantage to the rich when it comes to defending themselves in court. Still, what’s happening today—not only in New York, but throughout America—is new. It is not mere injustice, it is institutionalized, systematic injustice supported by military-grade armor and tactics. The injustice is driven not merely by bad intent, but by a need for money. The system now feeds on itself, unable to pay its way. Inputs exceed outputs, marginal returns are negative. Wealth extraction replaced wealth creation as the way to get along. This is the endgame of a complex dynamic system past the point of no return."
There is much more. For instance: "Free market approaches do not work for banks because banks are subsidized, insured, regulated, and implicitly guaranteed. Modern banks are the opposite of free market institutions, so different approaches are needed. This seemed lost on the Bush Treasury."
Or: "They are warnings—tremors ahead of a misfortune beyond imagining. This is not conjecture, but an expected outcome given the system dynamics. This outcome is not inevitable. Still, it is likely. To step back from the brink requires smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less leverage, and sound money, perhaps with reference to gold. None of these remedies is in prospect; a systems failure is."
"Fascism is not in our future, it is here now."
Absolutely brilliant essay on the most fundamental issue of the age.
February 10, 2017
Before reading this book, my biggest financial worries were about paying down my credit card and saving for retirement, but now I’m worried if I’ll ever be so blessed as to reach old age. This book makes the highly plausible argument that the next financial crisis is right around the corner, and not only will it be more devastating than the last one, it may be even worse than the Great Depression. Printing money and deficit spending won’t work anymore, so the next tool in the financial elite’s arsenal is a bank freeze. As the book puts it, everyone’s bank accounts will be like precious jewels behind a locked glass case. You’ll be able to see your money, but you won’t be able to access it. When that happens, people will be looting the supermarkets and rioting in the street. The author’s advice is to keep ready cash around and invest in gold for the long term, but stocking up on gas, water, and canned food seems more within my reach. Gold may be good for preserving wealth, but it’s the basics of survival that I’m worried about.
Now, I’ll admit that there were large sections of this book that flew right over my head. There were also parts that raised my doubts. The author seems to consider almost every American president since Wilson a fascist. He acknowledges that none of them were murderous, like Hitler, but they all believed in a powerful state. He even called President Obama’s community organizing approach fascistic, but to me it seems like democracy in action. Still, in spite of that point of disagreement, I believe him. The next financial crisis will be bad, the sort of thing I’ve read about in history books but never thought would happen in my lifetime. Does reading this book mean I’m more prepared for it? I’d like to think so, but I’m probably kidding myself. So, important book, but a terrible way to end the year.
Now, I’ll admit that there were large sections of this book that flew right over my head. There were also parts that raised my doubts. The author seems to consider almost every American president since Wilson a fascist. He acknowledges that none of them were murderous, like Hitler, but they all believed in a powerful state. He even called President Obama’s community organizing approach fascistic, but to me it seems like democracy in action. Still, in spite of that point of disagreement, I believe him. The next financial crisis will be bad, the sort of thing I’ve read about in history books but never thought would happen in my lifetime. Does reading this book mean I’m more prepared for it? I’d like to think so, but I’m probably kidding myself. So, important book, but a terrible way to end the year.
Want to read
October 22, 2018
(inspirational for Rickards)
(The Economist, issue of 1988)
(Chaos...theory)
"A financial crisis is certainly coming. In “The Road to Ruin,” I use 2018 as a target date and device because the two prior systemic crises, 1998 and 2008, were 10 years apart. I extended the timeline 10 years into the future from the 2008 crisis to maintain the 10-year tempo, and this is how I arrived at 2018. Yet I make the point in the book that the exact date is unimportant. What is most important is that the crisis is coming and the time to prepare is now. It could happen in 2018, 2019, or it could happen tomorrow. The conditions for collapse are all in place."
James Rickards
in: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jame...
Rickard's recommendation:
October 4, 2018
El libro proporciona hechos interesantes que no vemos en la avalancha de medios masivos que nos rodea todos los días, el autor recogió piezas y evidencias para el próximo colapso financiero próximo que permitirá lo que llamó un escenario de "nueve y nueve" en el que el llamado "Élite" congelará todo el sistema financiero en todo el mundo y procederá a la inflación extrema para limpiar deudas soberanas en todo el mundo.
Encontré esencial su explicación de Bayes y las teorías de la complejidad para pronosticar la crisis financiera, SDR como el nuevo dinero del FMI, que puede reemplazar a todas las monedas después del colapso.
Interesantes críticas a las famosas escuelas de economía clásica, austríaca, keynesiana y monetarista, seguidas con un buen material sobre la importancia del oro para mantener la riqueza individual como protección contra la inflación y el colapso.
Encontré esencial su explicación de Bayes y las teorías de la complejidad para pronosticar la crisis financiera, SDR como el nuevo dinero del FMI, que puede reemplazar a todas las monedas después del colapso.
Interesantes críticas a las famosas escuelas de economía clásica, austríaca, keynesiana y monetarista, seguidas con un buen material sobre la importancia del oro para mantener la riqueza individual como protección contra la inflación y el colapso.
May 25, 2018
This book is the economic theory book I've been looking for all my post-Keens life (misspelling intentional). I was so excited to see Bayes' theorem show up in there, too.
Now I got this one from the library, but it's gonna be a slow read for me, allowing for everything to sink in real good. Therefore, I will be purchasing a hardcopy so I can underline and mark it up! HAHAHA. Hopefully, I will still be laughing by the end. I know that sounds ominous, but whaddaya gonna do, given the subject matter and all. Check what's going on with your Facebook stock.
I will put this up on my online store in a few seconds, where I can buy it and you can, too:
http://blackdogebooks.com/redhot-pick
Now I got this one from the library, but it's gonna be a slow read for me, allowing for everything to sink in real good. Therefore, I will be purchasing a hardcopy so I can underline and mark it up! HAHAHA. Hopefully, I will still be laughing by the end. I know that sounds ominous, but whaddaya gonna do, given the subject matter and all. Check what's going on with your Facebook stock.
I will put this up on my online store in a few seconds, where I can buy it and you can, too:
http://blackdogebooks.com/redhot-pick
September 11, 2017
The Road to Ruin is quite simply a cutting-edge account of the current economic situation, and stands high on several strengths.
First of all, it is very readable whilst being sufficiently academic. Financial newcomers may be lost in jargon, but Rickards does not overwhelm the reader.
Secondly, it is very well informed. Researched is not the correct word, although Rickards clearly backs his work up with up to date sources, however, it is informed in the sense that Rickards is no industry outsider, quite the opposite. He has served at the highest levels of banking, and converses with the very highest people.
Thirdly, it makes sense. Early on, Rickards establishes that Economics, while being a science, is not practiced as such as economists behave like dogmatists, obfuscating information and data that does not hold with their preconceived theories. As such, the same risk models, algorithms, and practices that led to the crash of 2008 are firmly in place. Rickards details the 1998 collapse of Long Term Capital Management as a model for the crash of 2008, model in the sense that central bankers, policy elites, and the financial community could have learned the lessons from 1998, but ignored them.
Rickards work is both an overview of the systemic flaws in the world financial system, and something of a divination into what may come. The scenario he lays out is harsh and unsettling, wherein he posits that elites will roll out a universal asset freeze and halt of the global economy, and this will be backed up with the full force of the state, using policing tactics which may sound harsh to the unfamiliar, but as Rickards illustrates, are already widely practiced.
Rickards work may draw raised eyebrows, skepticism and disagreement, but whether one agrees with his book or not, it stands on its own merits as a well written, well argued and well informed critique of the global financial system, and stand tall it does.
First of all, it is very readable whilst being sufficiently academic. Financial newcomers may be lost in jargon, but Rickards does not overwhelm the reader.
Secondly, it is very well informed. Researched is not the correct word, although Rickards clearly backs his work up with up to date sources, however, it is informed in the sense that Rickards is no industry outsider, quite the opposite. He has served at the highest levels of banking, and converses with the very highest people.
Thirdly, it makes sense. Early on, Rickards establishes that Economics, while being a science, is not practiced as such as economists behave like dogmatists, obfuscating information and data that does not hold with their preconceived theories. As such, the same risk models, algorithms, and practices that led to the crash of 2008 are firmly in place. Rickards details the 1998 collapse of Long Term Capital Management as a model for the crash of 2008, model in the sense that central bankers, policy elites, and the financial community could have learned the lessons from 1998, but ignored them.
Rickards work is both an overview of the systemic flaws in the world financial system, and something of a divination into what may come. The scenario he lays out is harsh and unsettling, wherein he posits that elites will roll out a universal asset freeze and halt of the global economy, and this will be backed up with the full force of the state, using policing tactics which may sound harsh to the unfamiliar, but as Rickards illustrates, are already widely practiced.
Rickards work may draw raised eyebrows, skepticism and disagreement, but whether one agrees with his book or not, it stands on its own merits as a well written, well argued and well informed critique of the global financial system, and stand tall it does.
April 17, 2019
Not too sure about this author, he seems very bright and knows many people in high finance but his views on AGW seems to come right out of the conspiricy theorists camp.
May 9, 2021
In the world economical and financial system, there is always a rise and fall. And the fall is always the hardest.
"The Road to Ruin" by James Rickards is a book that contains a mountain of research into the ways in which the people in charge of global finances constantly plan situations that lead to crisis. Whether consciously or otherwise, Mr. Rickards explains that the so-called financial elites' consistent botching of the financial system is always in their favor. The result of the unfortunate events greatly widens the gap between the rich and the poor even if things appear to be going well on the outside.
Fascinating research is shown in the book for the period of the 1998 financial crisis which is hardly discussed in other books. The author makes some great comparisons between that event and the 2008-2009 financial recession which had devastated the American and world economy for the long term. He also explores the world of the elites from some European countries that preserved their wealth for hundreds of years, using their tactics of wealth preservation as examples of what others must try to do, regardless of social class, in order to protect themselves financially before an impending global financial catastrophe.
Although I enjoyed the book, I will say its weak point starts when the author delves into complicated business formulas and jargon in the middle of the book. These segments felt somewhat out of place since one of the major points Mr. Rickards tries to tell readers is to avoid complicating financial matters if they wanted to secure their own wealth properly. However, since this book contains discussions regarding business and the economy, I guess the complicated stuff is justified to be included. But I would have preferred the complicated business talk to be at a minimum so that more readers could understand the importance of the information discussed in the book.
"The Road to Ruin" is an interesting book that I would recommend to readers who want to find out what to anticipate in the event of an economic collapse. Lots of great information here ranging from historical analysis to economics. Readers will learn some good financial advice, too.
"The Road to Ruin" by James Rickards is a book that contains a mountain of research into the ways in which the people in charge of global finances constantly plan situations that lead to crisis. Whether consciously or otherwise, Mr. Rickards explains that the so-called financial elites' consistent botching of the financial system is always in their favor. The result of the unfortunate events greatly widens the gap between the rich and the poor even if things appear to be going well on the outside.
Fascinating research is shown in the book for the period of the 1998 financial crisis which is hardly discussed in other books. The author makes some great comparisons between that event and the 2008-2009 financial recession which had devastated the American and world economy for the long term. He also explores the world of the elites from some European countries that preserved their wealth for hundreds of years, using their tactics of wealth preservation as examples of what others must try to do, regardless of social class, in order to protect themselves financially before an impending global financial catastrophe.
Although I enjoyed the book, I will say its weak point starts when the author delves into complicated business formulas and jargon in the middle of the book. These segments felt somewhat out of place since one of the major points Mr. Rickards tries to tell readers is to avoid complicating financial matters if they wanted to secure their own wealth properly. However, since this book contains discussions regarding business and the economy, I guess the complicated stuff is justified to be included. But I would have preferred the complicated business talk to be at a minimum so that more readers could understand the importance of the information discussed in the book.
"The Road to Ruin" is an interesting book that I would recommend to readers who want to find out what to anticipate in the event of an economic collapse. Lots of great information here ranging from historical analysis to economics. Readers will learn some good financial advice, too.
December 19, 2016
The book provide interesting facts which we don’t see in the massive media avalanche around us everyday, the author collected pieces and evidences for next coming financial collapse which will let to what he called an “ice-nine” scenario in which the so called “elite” will freeze the entire financial system worldwide and proceed on extreme inflation to cleanup sovereign debts around the world.
I found essential his explanation of Bayes and complexity theories to forecast financial crisis, SDR as the new IMF money, which may replace all currencies after collapse.
Interesting critics to famous economics schools classical, Austrian, Keynesian and monetarist then Historical with good material regarding gold importance to hold in individual wealth as a protection against inflation and collapse. He gave following time frame for next crash:
- Capture the banking system, 2009–10
- Redistribute gold to China, 2009–16
- Redenominate the SDR, 2015–16
- Print and distribute SDRs, 2017–18
- Destroy debt by inflation, 2018–25
And advised individual to have following Robust all-weather portfolio:
- Coins and Bars of gold and silver, 10%;
- Cash, 30%
- Real estate, 20% (income producing or agricultural)
- Fine art fund, 5% (museum quality only)
- Angel and early venture capital, 10%
- Hedge funds, 5%
- Bonds, 10%
- Stocks, 10% (natural resource, mining, energy, utilities, tech only)
I think you can skip Chapter four (1998 crisis) as the author went in too much details because he was working in LTCM firm and he could make it briefer.
I found essential his explanation of Bayes and complexity theories to forecast financial crisis, SDR as the new IMF money, which may replace all currencies after collapse.
Interesting critics to famous economics schools classical, Austrian, Keynesian and monetarist then Historical with good material regarding gold importance to hold in individual wealth as a protection against inflation and collapse. He gave following time frame for next crash:
- Capture the banking system, 2009–10
- Redistribute gold to China, 2009–16
- Redenominate the SDR, 2015–16
- Print and distribute SDRs, 2017–18
- Destroy debt by inflation, 2018–25
And advised individual to have following Robust all-weather portfolio:
- Coins and Bars of gold and silver, 10%;
- Cash, 30%
- Real estate, 20% (income producing or agricultural)
- Fine art fund, 5% (museum quality only)
- Angel and early venture capital, 10%
- Hedge funds, 5%
- Bonds, 10%
- Stocks, 10% (natural resource, mining, energy, utilities, tech only)
I think you can skip Chapter four (1998 crisis) as the author went in too much details because he was working in LTCM firm and he could make it briefer.
July 13, 2017
This book is upsetting and frustrating, but a must-read (and re-read) for those looking for a counter view to what is provided by big liberal media about the future of our financial system. Excellent explanation of chaos theory and the financial markets as complex systems: in a complex system, a small change in input can have a wildly divergent outcome. Important and eye-opening concept of "ice-9" where the next financial elite tactic is to freeze our assets, ramp up inflation as to eliminate sovereign debt resulting in a mass transfer of wealth. While I'm no subject matter expert in economics (and I did find some content difficult to understand), there is too much evidence in this book and others to ignore that the next financial collapse could happen soon, very soon. And we're not talking 2008 "crisis", this will be a full collapse not seen for generations. I feel slightly more prepared for the collapse, certainly in terms of awareness and I have a better idea of how to try to avoid the big freeze.
March 7, 2020
One of the most educational yet depressing reads. Ever. I have always passed by books of this ilk, preferring to lose myself in the distant past or some interesting yet fundamentally irrelevant topic. And to read this during the roll-out of the very type of catastrophe he predicts, was especially disheartening. Did I cause it by reading this? Although that calamity is still unfolding, Jim Rickards makes the case that it was inevitable given the flawed 'design' and insane fragility of our global economic system. Call it a Black Swan or whatever, a shock (epidemic, pandemic, who cares?) such as the ongoing COVID-19 is all it will take to cause the next great financial collapse making 2008 and 1998 trivial by comparison. Just as I enter retirement--great. The author has real credentials to write with authority about all this. He was at Citibank during the Walter Wriston era and knows how the mega-banks operate and he actually worked at LTCM, the hedge fund (from my hometown in CT) that nearly broke the financial system in 1998. You finally learn who the 'Elites' are and most assuredly I (and probably you) are not among them. As he points out, it is a small, select club that will do anything to protect its own obscene share of global wealth. Call it the Davos crowd, the Wall Street crowd, or the Harvard/Yale crowd (every current member of the U.S. Supreme Court went to one or the other for law school). Perhaps the only criticism I might level against this valuable tome is that his solutions for weathering the coming storm seem oriented toward the very elites he purports to disdain. How many 'average' Americans can be expected to invest in fine art? Or land that appreciates like in the enclaves of wealth (where real estate is already beyond the reach of all but a tiny..elite!). Still this is a very educational and sobering look at the reality of the shaky (at best) world financial system. Apparently this was the third in a four-part series on this complex subject and his fourth, 'Aftermath' was published in 2019. No doubt even more terrifying than this one, great.
November 10, 2025
Okay so dude is instantly more credible as fuck, sure he is flexing his network, but also bro was literally general counsel at LTCM? he is just someone who obv knows his contemporary high finance he just knows shit. And I like how he is combining different disciplines,and how he bucks the trend of how the staunchest technocrats cant entertain unorthodox ideas. Also lmao how he gets to socialism is inevitable, states monopoly on military power, democratically elected fascism, regulatory capture. all very based
June 13, 2017
A few concepts I found interesting:
The "ice 9 doctrine" is worth understanding. If he's right, you'll need to hedge yourself to not become a casualty.
Schumpeter's gale. Creative destruction. Companies compete not with each other, but the future.
Schumpeter's view that socialism would triumph over capitalism and why.
What fascism is... and how president Woodrow Wilson was a model for Mussolini and others.
Why the next financial crisis is inevitable, why it'll be qualitatively different than 2008 and (marginal) ideas for how investors might protect themselves.
The "ice 9 doctrine" is worth understanding. If he's right, you'll need to hedge yourself to not become a casualty.
Schumpeter's gale. Creative destruction. Companies compete not with each other, but the future.
Schumpeter's view that socialism would triumph over capitalism and why.
What fascism is... and how president Woodrow Wilson was a model for Mussolini and others.
Why the next financial crisis is inevitable, why it'll be qualitatively different than 2008 and (marginal) ideas for how investors might protect themselves.
February 15, 2017
I awaited this book with so much excitement based on the author's previous great books but upon finishing it I must say it fails short of the epic analysis done in the author's previous books "Currency Wars" and even "The Death of Money". It's probably not a bad book for somebody who didn't read the others, but for me it felt too much of the same, too few new ideas, too much recap and 2x as much personal stories and trivial descriptions of events from the author's life contacts. They're interesting and maybe add authority, but not as valuable compared to the solid analysis, reasoning and predictions based on new data that I was hoping for.
I guess it's meant to be/is more of an introduction to a new reader, which i guess makes sense, though I still think it's not as solid an introduction. That being said I think the book is full of very interesting things, a lot of thinking and solid reasoning and some very useful and insightful perspective lenses for viewing these decades of history.
Random memories and thoughts on it:
- again nice argumentation on how the author's statements are not radical but rather historically common on longer timescales, such as the periodic reforming of the international world order, particularly a currency one
- there's a lot of talk about complexity theory, which i think is mostly right both in essence and in nice examples, howeeeever it feels overdone and used too much in a religious ways instead of more complex reasonings/maybe data that he can't afford to release so he's trying to talk around the edges?
- a very insightful presentation of the interest groups of those in power and how they differ sometimes from that of those who pay the taxes, and thus the rational divergence in goals and approaches
- some interesting insights as to what seem likely actions in the next crisis, in particular in the freezing of assets department for purposes of extra taxation/confiscation based on ruling needs. Here too, though one might be tempted to dismiss the author as a conspiracy theorist one finds the same issues being treated in very serious circles (even public papers: IMF, FED, ECB, BIS and the politics around them including the media communication strategy to prepare the masses for these events), though of course on a different tone as rational solutions to guiding the masses into desired outcomes.
- some more interesting insights about world geopolitics.
- interesting historical moment stories
- nice explanations of the incentives and operation processes of financial institutions, banks, and governmental finance departments
- As with the past couple of books i felt the author might've lost some spine in presenting some issues, maybe he was too direct on some of them, so in this book he seemed to me to somewhat backtrack on some issues or take a more politically correct modern position. Also more of the previous american nationalistic perspective. I'm curious how he views the new president's actions, not that that really matters in the big scope of the more important things, still, they might create the context for the steps of a world turning from a cooperation to a competition game theory approach
- nice discussions about old money vs new money perspectives and approaches
- has some controversial position on classical economics, seems persuasive for a few moments but at times his arguments felt fishy and slippery, unlike some of the classical ones he was opposing.
- i was surprised by his perspectives on old roman dictatorship and present day America, the tension between police confiscations as sources of revenue and taxes on the poor/particularly the black population
- i found particularly interesting his discussion based on Joseph Schumpeter's historical approach in arguing that indeed capitalism does fall to socialism, but not because it's good but because it creates the abundance and wealth that then invites the wasteful destruction, interesting to see that idea picked up in modern times and based on contemporary events, all fitting so well in the author's thesis of the elite's interests and their alliance with the popular masses to secure their continued wealth and prosperity by destroying the middle class. This makes historical sense given the ancient persistent examples of kings and peasants forming a killer alliance to engulf those between, something indeed noticeable historically in the past decades with the middle class being taxed into either poverty except for those who manage to rise into the favor of the state. Also On this transition he touches an idea I had only heard from Mises before, that of the pretty much identity and continuity between leftist and fascist ideas due to both similarity of goals and necessities, something indeed often overlooked today in the popular left-right discussions that ignore the necessities of action and the logical conclusions of trains of thought when applied to real world people.
Overall I found it an interesting book with a tons of interesting stuff, just not as good as "Currency Wars" or at least not having in 2016-2017 as much of a knowledge data package based on the new events since then as I was hoping for, which left me a bit disappointed although overall it was a better than average book.
I guess it's meant to be/is more of an introduction to a new reader, which i guess makes sense, though I still think it's not as solid an introduction. That being said I think the book is full of very interesting things, a lot of thinking and solid reasoning and some very useful and insightful perspective lenses for viewing these decades of history.
Random memories and thoughts on it:
- again nice argumentation on how the author's statements are not radical but rather historically common on longer timescales, such as the periodic reforming of the international world order, particularly a currency one
- there's a lot of talk about complexity theory, which i think is mostly right both in essence and in nice examples, howeeeever it feels overdone and used too much in a religious ways instead of more complex reasonings/maybe data that he can't afford to release so he's trying to talk around the edges?
- a very insightful presentation of the interest groups of those in power and how they differ sometimes from that of those who pay the taxes, and thus the rational divergence in goals and approaches
- some interesting insights as to what seem likely actions in the next crisis, in particular in the freezing of assets department for purposes of extra taxation/confiscation based on ruling needs. Here too, though one might be tempted to dismiss the author as a conspiracy theorist one finds the same issues being treated in very serious circles (even public papers: IMF, FED, ECB, BIS and the politics around them including the media communication strategy to prepare the masses for these events), though of course on a different tone as rational solutions to guiding the masses into desired outcomes.
- some more interesting insights about world geopolitics.
- interesting historical moment stories
- nice explanations of the incentives and operation processes of financial institutions, banks, and governmental finance departments
- As with the past couple of books i felt the author might've lost some spine in presenting some issues, maybe he was too direct on some of them, so in this book he seemed to me to somewhat backtrack on some issues or take a more politically correct modern position. Also more of the previous american nationalistic perspective. I'm curious how he views the new president's actions, not that that really matters in the big scope of the more important things, still, they might create the context for the steps of a world turning from a cooperation to a competition game theory approach
- nice discussions about old money vs new money perspectives and approaches
- has some controversial position on classical economics, seems persuasive for a few moments but at times his arguments felt fishy and slippery, unlike some of the classical ones he was opposing.
- i was surprised by his perspectives on old roman dictatorship and present day America, the tension between police confiscations as sources of revenue and taxes on the poor/particularly the black population
- i found particularly interesting his discussion based on Joseph Schumpeter's historical approach in arguing that indeed capitalism does fall to socialism, but not because it's good but because it creates the abundance and wealth that then invites the wasteful destruction, interesting to see that idea picked up in modern times and based on contemporary events, all fitting so well in the author's thesis of the elite's interests and their alliance with the popular masses to secure their continued wealth and prosperity by destroying the middle class. This makes historical sense given the ancient persistent examples of kings and peasants forming a killer alliance to engulf those between, something indeed noticeable historically in the past decades with the middle class being taxed into either poverty except for those who manage to rise into the favor of the state. Also On this transition he touches an idea I had only heard from Mises before, that of the pretty much identity and continuity between leftist and fascist ideas due to both similarity of goals and necessities, something indeed often overlooked today in the popular left-right discussions that ignore the necessities of action and the logical conclusions of trains of thought when applied to real world people.
Overall I found it an interesting book with a tons of interesting stuff, just not as good as "Currency Wars" or at least not having in 2016-2017 as much of a knowledge data package based on the new events since then as I was hoping for, which left me a bit disappointed although overall it was a better than average book.
March 14, 2020
What an eye opener this book was. Really puts into perspective your daily routine.
It makes more sense reading this than my bachelor’s degree in engineering and I am not even kidding.
Ends up raising more questions and eyebrows than answers. But that is the idea isn’t it, to spread awareness of the global systemic risks and the indifference of the people in power towards the same.
10/10 would recommend.
It makes more sense reading this than my bachelor’s degree in engineering and I am not even kidding.
Ends up raising more questions and eyebrows than answers. But that is the idea isn’t it, to spread awareness of the global systemic risks and the indifference of the people in power towards the same.
10/10 would recommend.
March 24, 2021
James Rickards talks about how he departs from the traditional schools of economics and instead makes use of the rougher tools of bayesian statistics, complexity theory and other adaptive tools to attempt to model and forecast things more traditional models can’t. He has a bit of an alarmist feel to his writing and to articles and speeches I’ve seen in the past. Yet, he’s an incredibly smart individual with a lot of varied experience and insight into some of the large institutions (bank and government) he speaks about. I wonder if his talk of impending collapse is like pandemics. The odds of it happening on any particular day may be very low but the impact if it does happen is extraordinarily large. So, should we ignore the possibility of it because of the low likelihood of it happening this instant, or should we put some thought and effort into planning and preparing for it to lessen the impact if/when it does happen?
He says governments, banks, and corporations haven’t learned from the previous collapses, corrections and bailouts. They are still vulnerable. He’s of the belief, based on his modeling, that the next major collapse of the markets will be exponentially worse than the previous ones and that the governments won’t have any tools left sufficient to stop it. He includes some fascinating history lessons as part of his discussions, including Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) and how it traced its history back to Salomon Brothers, both of which ended up having major problems.
He started as someone working in the financial sector and later studied and learned physics and higher mathematics, which he was then able to apply to modeling the markets, something he at one point did for the CIA to help them try to find terrorists based on financial transactions. He was working in the financial industry during some of the crashes he described, gaining insight into how the different banks and other organizations work. He has advised and spoken with high ranking government and bank officials. He has testified before Congress.
As he learned and studied the market with these new tools he tried to warn policy makers of upcoming risks. He says he was rarely listened to and those risks turned into collapses that required the policy makers to step in and offer up bail outs. He provides historical context for how these things have built up and, though future collapse is likely he says it’s not inevitable, but to avoid it would require changes to the markets, such as smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less leverage, etc., changes he feels are unlikely to be made. Given what he sees as a catastrophic future market collapse, and given he views it unlikely world governments and organizations will act properly to avoid it, he provides recommendations on how he’d build a portfolio for individual investors to help weather the coming storm. One example is the inclusion of physical gold as insurance against governments inflating away the value of the fait currencies we currently use. Some of the things he recommends might be difficult for the typical investor to acquire, or things the typical investor might be less likely to consider, or would lack the understanding needed to invest without getting taken advantage of.
No one can predict the future with absolute certainty, but through rigorous modeling perhaps we can gain insight into some possible futures. And if those futures are dire enough maybe it makes sense to allocate a little time and effort into planning how to best navigate those scenarios if they were to occur. This book provides one well researched view into a possible future with steps to take to perhaps best navigate an uncertain future.
He says governments, banks, and corporations haven’t learned from the previous collapses, corrections and bailouts. They are still vulnerable. He’s of the belief, based on his modeling, that the next major collapse of the markets will be exponentially worse than the previous ones and that the governments won’t have any tools left sufficient to stop it. He includes some fascinating history lessons as part of his discussions, including Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) and how it traced its history back to Salomon Brothers, both of which ended up having major problems.
He started as someone working in the financial sector and later studied and learned physics and higher mathematics, which he was then able to apply to modeling the markets, something he at one point did for the CIA to help them try to find terrorists based on financial transactions. He was working in the financial industry during some of the crashes he described, gaining insight into how the different banks and other organizations work. He has advised and spoken with high ranking government and bank officials. He has testified before Congress.
As he learned and studied the market with these new tools he tried to warn policy makers of upcoming risks. He says he was rarely listened to and those risks turned into collapses that required the policy makers to step in and offer up bail outs. He provides historical context for how these things have built up and, though future collapse is likely he says it’s not inevitable, but to avoid it would require changes to the markets, such as smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less leverage, etc., changes he feels are unlikely to be made. Given what he sees as a catastrophic future market collapse, and given he views it unlikely world governments and organizations will act properly to avoid it, he provides recommendations on how he’d build a portfolio for individual investors to help weather the coming storm. One example is the inclusion of physical gold as insurance against governments inflating away the value of the fait currencies we currently use. Some of the things he recommends might be difficult for the typical investor to acquire, or things the typical investor might be less likely to consider, or would lack the understanding needed to invest without getting taken advantage of.
No one can predict the future with absolute certainty, but through rigorous modeling perhaps we can gain insight into some possible futures. And if those futures are dire enough maybe it makes sense to allocate a little time and effort into planning how to best navigate those scenarios if they were to occur. This book provides one well researched view into a possible future with steps to take to perhaps best navigate an uncertain future.
May 27, 2017
Well I did something with this book I've never done before. I read it from the back forwards, chapter by chapter. I felt there was not much time and I needed to know how it all ends before it actually does and I'm caught off-guard, unprepared, in-the-middle!!
So sure enough, I can sum it up this way:
THE CACA IS GOING TO HIT THE FAN AND VERY SOON!!
Probably by 2018 as it is going now.
Rickards does a very good job of explaining the steps which will definitely make you angry with the ineptness of the powers that be and how we are all puppets to their greed for power and control at our expense for which they care not a whit!
His chapter on Capitalism was unique.
There are a lot of technical, economic, financial terms that are a little confusing, but really he is just saying that there is basically nothing new under the sun, only known by different names. Just variations of intensity, breadth, and depth. Of which this will be monumental because of the complexity theory to which he has put a mathematical formula, and nothing like the world has ever experienced. That to every thing there is a season. Which is to say, everything is cyclical. It is borne of necessity, grows, expands, then outlives its purpose or usefulness, or self-implodes, and dies, only to be reborn again in a same but different way. Hopefully better. But it's going to take a loooong time for that to cycle through to the rebirth part.
So, basically our economic, WORLDWIDE, system is going down. There will be a LOT of chaos, and even bloodshed, and yes probably here in the U.S. too. Your money may be confiscated, but certainly ICE-9'd or frozen without warning! Things will evolve like an earthquake of dominoes and once ut starts this time cannot be stopped. We have come very close several times already to a complete collapse. This next time, it. wiil. be. lethal. and complete.
Of course, he knows how to stop or change it, but nobody is listening to him. So he does give you some tips on how to protect yourself as much as possible.
He kind of puts himself in the same boat as you/us way down on the 'rich pole', but then also tells you how he interacts with his rich friends or powerful leaders. I'm not begrudging him that. It's just kind of comical and a little awkward when he throws in where they are dining and on what, as if he is just a regular, social guy in the midst of this very serious situation.
He does say we will survive overall, just as we always have, but there will be a lot of damage to individuals and society as a whole. You should read it and do the best that you can. At least you won't be surprised. We are definitely not doing as well as they would lead you to believe.
So sure enough, I can sum it up this way:
THE CACA IS GOING TO HIT THE FAN AND VERY SOON!!
Probably by 2018 as it is going now.
Rickards does a very good job of explaining the steps which will definitely make you angry with the ineptness of the powers that be and how we are all puppets to their greed for power and control at our expense for which they care not a whit!
His chapter on Capitalism was unique.
There are a lot of technical, economic, financial terms that are a little confusing, but really he is just saying that there is basically nothing new under the sun, only known by different names. Just variations of intensity, breadth, and depth. Of which this will be monumental because of the complexity theory to which he has put a mathematical formula, and nothing like the world has ever experienced. That to every thing there is a season. Which is to say, everything is cyclical. It is borne of necessity, grows, expands, then outlives its purpose or usefulness, or self-implodes, and dies, only to be reborn again in a same but different way. Hopefully better. But it's going to take a loooong time for that to cycle through to the rebirth part.
So, basically our economic, WORLDWIDE, system is going down. There will be a LOT of chaos, and even bloodshed, and yes probably here in the U.S. too. Your money may be confiscated, but certainly ICE-9'd or frozen without warning! Things will evolve like an earthquake of dominoes and once ut starts this time cannot be stopped. We have come very close several times already to a complete collapse. This next time, it. wiil. be. lethal. and complete.
Of course, he knows how to stop or change it, but nobody is listening to him. So he does give you some tips on how to protect yourself as much as possible.
He kind of puts himself in the same boat as you/us way down on the 'rich pole', but then also tells you how he interacts with his rich friends or powerful leaders. I'm not begrudging him that. It's just kind of comical and a little awkward when he throws in where they are dining and on what, as if he is just a regular, social guy in the midst of this very serious situation.
He does say we will survive overall, just as we always have, but there will be a lot of damage to individuals and society as a whole. You should read it and do the best that you can. At least you won't be surprised. We are definitely not doing as well as they would lead you to believe.
August 26, 2017
Smart and well informed, the book has many very interesting insights. I agree with many of the conclusions. However, it also seems drama seeking, undisciplined, and not very well written.
The basic criticism of modern financial analysis is largely valid. Failed theories can survive far too long. I don't think the author is unique in observing this but he does a good job of demonstrating several poignant cases.
The term "Ice Nine" comes from science fiction here it seemed overused. Sometimes applied to guaranteed instruments, and sometimes to equities. Generally reflecting market contagion, peppered with conspiracy theory. Bank failures in Iceland and Cyprus were portrayed as terrible injustices perpetrated by governments. There may be a case to be made, but the government didn't take the money. There were several cases like this where the drama seemed to be overdone. With the amount of debt that is likely to go sour in the future, I felt the hyperbole did the case a disservice because I expect the truth of future write-downs to be very painful.
He tries to portray the human face of inequality and injustice today in America. Showing a remarkable contrast to the indifference of the ruling class. It's hard to use a brief vignette to convincingly deal with such a deeply emotional issue.
The author provides a cautionary example of a defective understanding of fascism. Academics invest in definitions precisely because a good definition can help your analysis focus correctly on the key element of a critical issue. An over-broad definition, in this case, stems from political discussions in America in the 30s. These discussions had not benefited from information and extensive analysis that would come later. The defective definition leads to seeing commonalities in too many places. The author claims that George Bush's "no child left behind" policy and Hilary Clinton's "it takes a village" politics are examples of fascism. I find it odd this made it to press. I feel it reflects deep ignorance or fundamental dishonesty.
Comparisons to previous civilizations that have collapsed are probably appropriate. I have seen other commentators make very compelling parallels. But this is a complex argument and in order to make it convincingly, there are many points that need to be made. I suspect this abbreviated version would not convince anyone not already familiar with the argument.
At times complexity theory seemed to be an excellent vehicle. But complexity theory should not obfuscate things that are simple. There is an astonishing amount of debt in our society that is not going to be serviced. The fact that there is something seriously wrong is the absolute truth of the book. I respect its anger but the drama often felt contrived and tiresome.
The basic criticism of modern financial analysis is largely valid. Failed theories can survive far too long. I don't think the author is unique in observing this but he does a good job of demonstrating several poignant cases.
The term "Ice Nine" comes from science fiction here it seemed overused. Sometimes applied to guaranteed instruments, and sometimes to equities. Generally reflecting market contagion, peppered with conspiracy theory. Bank failures in Iceland and Cyprus were portrayed as terrible injustices perpetrated by governments. There may be a case to be made, but the government didn't take the money. There were several cases like this where the drama seemed to be overdone. With the amount of debt that is likely to go sour in the future, I felt the hyperbole did the case a disservice because I expect the truth of future write-downs to be very painful.
He tries to portray the human face of inequality and injustice today in America. Showing a remarkable contrast to the indifference of the ruling class. It's hard to use a brief vignette to convincingly deal with such a deeply emotional issue.
The author provides a cautionary example of a defective understanding of fascism. Academics invest in definitions precisely because a good definition can help your analysis focus correctly on the key element of a critical issue. An over-broad definition, in this case, stems from political discussions in America in the 30s. These discussions had not benefited from information and extensive analysis that would come later. The defective definition leads to seeing commonalities in too many places. The author claims that George Bush's "no child left behind" policy and Hilary Clinton's "it takes a village" politics are examples of fascism. I find it odd this made it to press. I feel it reflects deep ignorance or fundamental dishonesty.
Comparisons to previous civilizations that have collapsed are probably appropriate. I have seen other commentators make very compelling parallels. But this is a complex argument and in order to make it convincingly, there are many points that need to be made. I suspect this abbreviated version would not convince anyone not already familiar with the argument.
At times complexity theory seemed to be an excellent vehicle. But complexity theory should not obfuscate things that are simple. There is an astonishing amount of debt in our society that is not going to be serviced. The fact that there is something seriously wrong is the absolute truth of the book. I respect its anger but the drama often felt contrived and tiresome.
December 30, 2016
Rickards used to work in LTCM so he has first hand experience in the finance industry. This book has many parts.
The first part talks about the new power of governments across the world to freeze money flow post-2008. Digital assets can be easily frozen or confiscated, as many sanctioned governments had found out. This only physical gold bars or works of Art, and land ownership certificates are worthy to keep.
The second part is about the folly of the current economic thinking. Everything is wrong. Only complexity theory can explain the current system. Post-2008, interest rates have become 0 or negative, and central bank has expanded the money supply. As a result debt has grown far more than GDP growth. This debt bubble is not sustainable. Rickards predicts that another crisis is not far away. He suggests that banks must become smaller, and retail banking must be separate from investment banking again. All credit swaps must be made open so that risks can be assessed properly in a crisis.
From here the book takes a rather strange turn.
The third part is about the problem of free trade which has decimated the American middle class. He suggests that tariffs of 30% be slapped on all imports, all corporate tax scrapped, and minimum wage be raised. He argues that this will benefit America, and will stop mercantilist countries from profiting from their currency war.
The forth part is about the evolution of capitalism to ultimate socialism, and the state having too much power and ultimately turning to fascism.
He believes that the global elite is going to destroy the world.
I like his analysis, but not the solutions.
The first part talks about the new power of governments across the world to freeze money flow post-2008. Digital assets can be easily frozen or confiscated, as many sanctioned governments had found out. This only physical gold bars or works of Art, and land ownership certificates are worthy to keep.
The second part is about the folly of the current economic thinking. Everything is wrong. Only complexity theory can explain the current system. Post-2008, interest rates have become 0 or negative, and central bank has expanded the money supply. As a result debt has grown far more than GDP growth. This debt bubble is not sustainable. Rickards predicts that another crisis is not far away. He suggests that banks must become smaller, and retail banking must be separate from investment banking again. All credit swaps must be made open so that risks can be assessed properly in a crisis.
From here the book takes a rather strange turn.
The third part is about the problem of free trade which has decimated the American middle class. He suggests that tariffs of 30% be slapped on all imports, all corporate tax scrapped, and minimum wage be raised. He argues that this will benefit America, and will stop mercantilist countries from profiting from their currency war.
The forth part is about the evolution of capitalism to ultimate socialism, and the state having too much power and ultimately turning to fascism.
He believes that the global elite is going to destroy the world.
I like his analysis, but not the solutions.
September 7, 2017
Alarmist and highly biased BUT I would still recommend a read (unless you're already a diehard gold bug / Austrian economist) simply because of the wealth of information presented that one won't find in mainstream literature. The central banking experiment is foolish as command and control systems seldom work, as already evidenced by central planners in Communist regimes. Should governments "gate" liquidity in a crisis? Probably so if for purely altruistic reasons, as many financial crises have been needlessly caused by the sudden outflow of capital unrelated to the fundamental health of an economy (19th century American panics come to mind as a result of unrelated events in Europe eg Crimean war). But obviously, there is room for misuse here, and government behavior hasn't given savers much confidence (Greece etc). In any case, read the book. But don't make it the only one you read on the subject, or it could inspire (in my view) an excessive focus on the black swans and a potentially counterproductive mindset to balanced long-term investing, which after all, requires some faith in political and financial systems. Rickards also occasionally drifts off into unbalanced-sounding rambling where he treat central bankers (whom he calls "the global elite") as some sort of cohesive, cultist, amorphous "bloc", ignoring the reality these are human beings who answer to different political bosses, have different incentives and goals, and are probably as concerned with covering their asses and not being known as the captain of the Titanic as any regular Ivy league educated bureaucrat.
March 13, 2017
This is a thoughtful examination of the current world global markets. As an individual with no background in economics, some parts were difficult for me to grasp but I was able to easily grasp he conclusion. It's been about 1500 years since the last financial crash end of Bronze Age etc and certain market problems (negative interests rates) will make our cash unavailable to us and driverless cars and social injustice will leave those of us on the bottom of the rung defenseless against this crash and the richest .01% who are able to invest in tangible things (GOLD, real estate, art) will be the only ones who can defend against the crisis.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
June 22, 2017
Impressively written and published. This book contains info from only months or sooner before its publication date. It's obvious that a lot of research, experience, passion, care, and hard work went into the creation of this book. If nothing in this book was true, it would still be a must-read in my opinion, but I believe we are in for some interesting times and some hard decisions in the very near future. You may not like what you learn in this, but just as "God is no respecter of persons" (Acts 10:34), neither is the truth. Even if the premise of this book were to be wrong, you can still learn a lot from it.
December 30, 2016
I didn't get the chance to finish this, and I'm not qualified to judge whether he's right or not, but I can say that he's a really irritating writer. He seizes on the term "ice-nine" from a science fiction story and then uses it until long after it's ceased to have any meaning. He goes on about "the elites" without defining who they are. The technical language goes over the heads of most of us, and there is little coherence to the early part of the book.
March 16, 2019
So great, there’s a wide spread from dinner’s with top level BlackRock friends, awesome bits on his time at LTCM, buying Picasso sketches as the lightest way to quickly move ~$20-100k on a plane, and scary warnings about how the police and SWAT teams are abusing the poor and taking liberties with everyone.
December 30, 2016
Complexity theory in action
Do you ever wondered why India demonetized.
Is FDR a fascist or democrat.
What is unique about Schumpeter theories pointing to end of capitalism.
US citizens are prohibited from buying physical gold
Read this book for dystopian but realistic vision..
Do you ever wondered why India demonetized.
Is FDR a fascist or democrat.
What is unique about Schumpeter theories pointing to end of capitalism.
US citizens are prohibited from buying physical gold
Read this book for dystopian but realistic vision..
May 6, 2020
Why would you want to read a book like this? Never, have I been interested in economics or the worlds monetary system, however this is the third book from Rickards that seems to have touched a nerve. How did I get here? The answer is from World War II; the cataclysm of the last century that has shaped our current world view. The motivations and notions that shape our civilization today, and in pursuit of that, the origins and causes of that cataclysm. Simplistically we look for those origins primarily through a social, cultural lens with the economic causes taking a "back seat". This is not a book about WWII nor really is it a book purely about economics, but rather something that studies the all encompassing human pursuit of preservation, and usually that in the form of advantage and wealth.
Rickards references Felix Somary, an Austro-Hungarian born in 1881, and credits him with being "the greatest economist of the 20th century. He also admits to using Somary's methods based on etiology, psychology, complexity and history. At last.. economics sounds interesting!
That is just about all I need to tell you about this study other than Rickards conclusion:
"Injustice has always existed. The poor are always at a disadvantage to the rich.... Still what is happening today- not only in New York, but throughout America is new. It is not mere injustice, it is institutionalized, systematic injustice supported by military grade armour and tactics. The injustice is driven not merely by bad intent, but by a need for money. The system now feeds on itself, unable to pay its way. Inputs exceed outputs, marginal returns are negative. Wealth extraction replaced wealth creation as the way to get along. This is the end game of a complex dynamic system past the point of no return.
Rickards references Felix Somary, an Austro-Hungarian born in 1881, and credits him with being "the greatest economist of the 20th century. He also admits to using Somary's methods based on etiology, psychology, complexity and history. At last.. economics sounds interesting!
That is just about all I need to tell you about this study other than Rickards conclusion:
"Injustice has always existed. The poor are always at a disadvantage to the rich.... Still what is happening today- not only in New York, but throughout America is new. It is not mere injustice, it is institutionalized, systematic injustice supported by military grade armour and tactics. The injustice is driven not merely by bad intent, but by a need for money. The system now feeds on itself, unable to pay its way. Inputs exceed outputs, marginal returns are negative. Wealth extraction replaced wealth creation as the way to get along. This is the end game of a complex dynamic system past the point of no return.
June 26, 2018
This is the second book I've read by Jim Rickards, and I absolutely love it!
My favorite way to study history is from an economic point of view, so Jim's books are perfect. His deep knowledge of statistics, economics, physics and chaos theory, along with his experience in the private finance sector, as well as advising major political figures or the CIA is astounding. The way he disseminates his knowledge, shares life experiences, and analyzes the economic make this book educational, captivating and simply entertaining. There was never a dull moment, and I'm continuously amazed by how much Jim has and continues to achieve throughout his life.
I'll probably forget most of the details, but the book really added to my grand understanding of how the economy functions.
There are a few things that stood out. Being too big to fail is indeed possible, and G-SIFI is its name. World money (a global currency) is likely to appear at some point in the future, which makes me all the more bullish on Bitcoin. With that said, gold still has a place in everyone's portfolio. The chapter about LTCM's downfall really reminded me of Liar's poker and was interesting to read. He painted a good picture (no pun intended) about the importance of art in an individual's portfolio; very similar to land and gold when you look at it from a scarcity point of view.
I don't think I'll ever re-read this book since Jim keeps pumping out new books every year, but I would highly recommend it to anyone interested in learning about the state and history of the economy.
My favorite way to study history is from an economic point of view, so Jim's books are perfect. His deep knowledge of statistics, economics, physics and chaos theory, along with his experience in the private finance sector, as well as advising major political figures or the CIA is astounding. The way he disseminates his knowledge, shares life experiences, and analyzes the economic make this book educational, captivating and simply entertaining. There was never a dull moment, and I'm continuously amazed by how much Jim has and continues to achieve throughout his life.
I'll probably forget most of the details, but the book really added to my grand understanding of how the economy functions.
There are a few things that stood out. Being too big to fail is indeed possible, and G-SIFI is its name. World money (a global currency) is likely to appear at some point in the future, which makes me all the more bullish on Bitcoin. With that said, gold still has a place in everyone's portfolio. The chapter about LTCM's downfall really reminded me of Liar's poker and was interesting to read. He painted a good picture (no pun intended) about the importance of art in an individual's portfolio; very similar to land and gold when you look at it from a scarcity point of view.
I don't think I'll ever re-read this book since Jim keeps pumping out new books every year, but I would highly recommend it to anyone interested in learning about the state and history of the economy.
September 21, 2022
An interesting book. Do not put off by the sensationalistic title
The premise is that
1. the world is more complicated today than it has ever been
2. Complexity does not increase in a linear manner. If the size of the systems doubles then the number of interactions quadruples etc.
3. There is an increasing desire from the elites to control society and the economy; think central bankers, G7 coordinated approaches etc.
The book argues that these coordinated approaches will work in the short term (the banking sector survived the banking crisis in 2008) but eventually the contradictions in the system (think interest rates at 0%, deficits run by both the private and Government sectors) will become so large that something will set a collapse off.
We cannot tell what the trigger will be. Famously it could be a butterfly flapping its wings but as a system collapse gains momentum there will be no way to stop it.
The author does have solutions such as reducing gearing in the system but I cannot see that happening (this week the Government will spend X billion on subsidizing gas and electricity prices and the Bank of England is not yet serious about increasing interest rates).
The author and I do not see any attempt by the powers that be to reduce risk in the system. We are left with personal responses. The author is keen on gold and I have friends who have created an almost self-sufficient farm with solar panels etc. The risk definitely exists and so we need to think about our approach even if it is to accept the risk.
The premise is that
1. the world is more complicated today than it has ever been
2. Complexity does not increase in a linear manner. If the size of the systems doubles then the number of interactions quadruples etc.
3. There is an increasing desire from the elites to control society and the economy; think central bankers, G7 coordinated approaches etc.
The book argues that these coordinated approaches will work in the short term (the banking sector survived the banking crisis in 2008) but eventually the contradictions in the system (think interest rates at 0%, deficits run by both the private and Government sectors) will become so large that something will set a collapse off.
We cannot tell what the trigger will be. Famously it could be a butterfly flapping its wings but as a system collapse gains momentum there will be no way to stop it.
The author does have solutions such as reducing gearing in the system but I cannot see that happening (this week the Government will spend X billion on subsidizing gas and electricity prices and the Bank of England is not yet serious about increasing interest rates).
The author and I do not see any attempt by the powers that be to reduce risk in the system. We are left with personal responses. The author is keen on gold and I have friends who have created an almost self-sufficient farm with solar panels etc. The risk definitely exists and so we need to think about our approach even if it is to accept the risk.
August 21, 2023
Excellent read. Focuses upon the upcoming financial debt crisis which will be way worse than 2008 and 1998 or as he describes tremors ahead of a misfortune beyond imagination ie they were only warms ups for the real thing. In a world awash in unprecedented debt the ultra rich and political elite appear convinced this is on the horizon and are positioning themselves to survive and prosper. Rickards explains that the US dollar will lose its priviliged reserve currency status and when this happens explains that the political bodies (UN IMF) will replace the USD with the SDR (Special drawing rights) which is a digital currency linked to a basket of currencies including the USD, Chinese, Swiss British and Chinese currency. The book points to the fact that the Climate crisis is manufactured and will be the excuse (Cost to us all) to solve the financial crisis and introduce a reordered society and a new currency. Demonstrates that the only statistically to predict a crash is use complexity theory and explains why gold is the only real money available to society. He demonstrates how the US, Chines and Russian societies are building up sores of god as wealth reserves. Book. Book contains useful titbits like how rich families protect their wealth through time and a fascinating chapter on the definition and origin of facism
October 28, 2020
pretty scary. Suggests they can halt all transactions and block access to your money when the next crash happens.
I’d finished a run of library hardcovers about pandemics, plagues, zoonotic diseases, and other present and future civilization altering contagion. So I suppose I was ready to dive into the probability of a major worldwide financial collapse. And The Road to Ruin didn’t disappoint.
This book fits neatly into a category for me which includes: Empire of Debt, The Party’s Over, The Creature from Jekyll Island, Tailspin, and Who Stole my Pension. These books usually leave me feeling like stashing a few more gold coins and pulling a few more thousands out of the bank. The discussion of the “ice-nine plan” to freeze access to all accounts and financial products could easily be initiated if a huge economic panic flared up. Since our current Covid-19 pandemic shows no sign of slowing down, especially in the USA, this could just be the catalyst. It’s almost unimaginable that the stock market is still blasting along as usual. It really shows how this fiat based money economy is just a flim flam based on faith & trust which could break down very quickly. I sort of perversely like reminding myself of these things from time to time. 4****
I’d finished a run of library hardcovers about pandemics, plagues, zoonotic diseases, and other present and future civilization altering contagion. So I suppose I was ready to dive into the probability of a major worldwide financial collapse. And The Road to Ruin didn’t disappoint.
This book fits neatly into a category for me which includes: Empire of Debt, The Party’s Over, The Creature from Jekyll Island, Tailspin, and Who Stole my Pension. These books usually leave me feeling like stashing a few more gold coins and pulling a few more thousands out of the bank. The discussion of the “ice-nine plan” to freeze access to all accounts and financial products could easily be initiated if a huge economic panic flared up. Since our current Covid-19 pandemic shows no sign of slowing down, especially in the USA, this could just be the catalyst. It’s almost unimaginable that the stock market is still blasting along as usual. It really shows how this fiat based money economy is just a flim flam based on faith & trust which could break down very quickly. I sort of perversely like reminding myself of these things from time to time. 4****
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