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Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution
Most people who resist logical thought in baseball preach "tradition" and "respecting the game." But many of baseball's traditions go back to the nineteenth century, when the pitcher's job was to provide the batter with a ball he could hit and fielders played without gloves. Instead of fearing change, Brian Kenny wants fans to think critically, reject outmoded groupthink, and embrace the changes that have come with the "sabermetric era." In his entertaining and enlightening book, Kenny discusses why the pitching win-loss record, the Triple Crown, fielding errors, and so-called battling titles should be ignored. Kenny also points out how fossilized sportswriters have been electing the wrong MVPs and ignoring legitimate candidates for the Hall of Fame; why managers are hired based on their looks; and how the most important position in baseball may just be "director of decision sciences." Ahead of the Curve debunks the old way of analyzing baseball and ushers in a new era of straightforward logic. Illustrated with unique anecdotes from those who have reshaped the game, it's a must-listen for fans, players, managers, and fantasy enthusiasts.
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Published July 20, 2016
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 109 reviews
July 25, 2016
I received this book for free through Goodreads’ First Reads.
Overall, I enjoyed this book. This book is all about sabermetrics. I didn’t find all of the author’s arguments to be convincing (like the one against bunting), but others made a lot of sense (Kill the Win!). This book really makes you think about the way baseball is managed and how people are reluctant to try new techniques.
Overall, I enjoyed this book. This book is all about sabermetrics. I didn’t find all of the author’s arguments to be convincing (like the one against bunting), but others made a lot of sense (Kill the Win!). This book really makes you think about the way baseball is managed and how people are reluctant to try new techniques.
July 19, 2016
Brian Kenny is a sabermetrics zealot. I am not.
Kenny routinely rips the BBWAA for backwards thinking (or a total lack of thinking). I've been a BBWAA member since 1991.
His new book, Ahead of the Curve, reminded me of how many things we disagree on. But also of how often we actually agree.
Kenny is a zealot, but he's also a forceful advocate. He presents his positions so well that even when your first impression is he's nuts, he gets you to ask yourself why he's nuts.
I could have done without some of the gratuitous insults, and without some of the smugness. But that's all part of Brian Kenny, and I think most of us who know him gladly accept that part. Even though he's sure he's right and even more sure that you're wrong, he never comes across as mean-spirited, as some sabermetric zealots do.
He wants you to think and ask questions, and his book had me thinking and questioning. I questioned some of his wilder stands, sure, but also some of my own.
Kenny has written a valuable book, one that will appeal not just to other zealots, but to anyone who loves baseball.
Kenny routinely rips the BBWAA for backwards thinking (or a total lack of thinking). I've been a BBWAA member since 1991.
His new book, Ahead of the Curve, reminded me of how many things we disagree on. But also of how often we actually agree.
Kenny is a zealot, but he's also a forceful advocate. He presents his positions so well that even when your first impression is he's nuts, he gets you to ask yourself why he's nuts.
I could have done without some of the gratuitous insults, and without some of the smugness. But that's all part of Brian Kenny, and I think most of us who know him gladly accept that part. Even though he's sure he's right and even more sure that you're wrong, he never comes across as mean-spirited, as some sabermetric zealots do.
He wants you to think and ask questions, and his book had me thinking and questioning. I questioned some of his wilder stands, sure, but also some of my own.
Kenny has written a valuable book, one that will appeal not just to other zealots, but to anyone who loves baseball.
July 20, 2016
I like this a lot more than I expected to. The advance word I heard about Kenny's book was that it was a self-congratulatory screed - and I could see how that would be the case, based on the title and all. But I thought I'd give it a try.
Yeah, it's better than I expected. On the face of it, this is a polemical work -- I mean, entire chapters are titled, "The Tyranny of Batting Average" "Kill the Win" and "Kill the Save, Too." But the writing style itself is more conversational, and it flows pretty well. Kenny clearly has his opinions - he's avowedly pro-analytical - but it reads like someone you'd get into an argument with at a bar - and not be annoyed that you're in an argument with him at a bar.
This is nothing revolutionary. Much of this is old hat. (I mean, bashing batting average in 2016 isn't exactly ahead of the curve), but it's still well done and enjoyable.
Yeah, it's better than I expected. On the face of it, this is a polemical work -- I mean, entire chapters are titled, "The Tyranny of Batting Average" "Kill the Win" and "Kill the Save, Too." But the writing style itself is more conversational, and it flows pretty well. Kenny clearly has his opinions - he's avowedly pro-analytical - but it reads like someone you'd get into an argument with at a bar - and not be annoyed that you're in an argument with him at a bar.
This is nothing revolutionary. Much of this is old hat. (I mean, bashing batting average in 2016 isn't exactly ahead of the curve), but it's still well done and enjoyable.
July 7, 2017
I was a bit disturbed when Kenny started the book off with his diatribe on the detrimental impact sacrifice bunting has on a team’s chances to score. Why did this disturb me? I grew up a Cub fan, and one of the often repeated phrases by Harry Carey that was burnt into my memory is his slow, slightly slurred, and obviously disgusted call of “Everybody’s safe” after another failed sacrifice bunt defense by the Cubbies. If I heard it once, I heard it a hundred times. Obviously, sacrifice bunts can work.
But memory is a fallible thing. It is better to analyze this question with the stats, the true measures to determine if bunts are worth it. And here, Kenny let me down. His highlight stat is that the expected runs with a man on first and no outs is .94, while the expected runs with a man on second with one out is .72. In other words, the situation after a successful bunt (or other situations leaving a man on second with one out, like a lead-off double followed by a strikeout) has historically had fewer runs score in that inning than the situation where there’s a man on first with no outs, prior to the sacrifice bunt. A non-intuitive result. Sure, but there are other outcomes possible between the first situation and the second situation. He mentions he left out the failed sac bunt attempt in his analysis, but what about the “Everybody’s safe” situation (and again, imagine Harry saying that slowly like he’s having trouble getting it all out of his mouth, dripping with disgust). Those two numbers aren’t directly comparable without also taking the alternative bunt attempt outcomes into consideration. And not even a mention of defensive bunt defense, faking a bunt, etc. From this argument, Kenny seems to over-generalize. I wondered if I had wandered into one of those books that take numbers to make a case where you could also re-analyze and make the opposite case…
I hadn’t heard of Brian Kenny prior to reading this book. I prefer my baseball broadcasts local. In my mind, Kenny started this book in a hole. But, thankfully, he had the personality and analysis to pull it out. I enjoyed the way Kenny told his story. He does talk about himself, quite a lot. After all, he’s a sports broadcaster, and those folks aren’t timid, nor do they lack ego. But he has a sense of humor about himself and the situations he’s been in. And as you read you find he has taken a story about his fantasy baseball league and segued into a detailed discussion of some aspect of baseball with the analytic analysis to back up his claims. Fun for those that like to conjecture about baseball using history as a guide.
But memory is a fallible thing. It is better to analyze this question with the stats, the true measures to determine if bunts are worth it. And here, Kenny let me down. His highlight stat is that the expected runs with a man on first and no outs is .94, while the expected runs with a man on second with one out is .72. In other words, the situation after a successful bunt (or other situations leaving a man on second with one out, like a lead-off double followed by a strikeout) has historically had fewer runs score in that inning than the situation where there’s a man on first with no outs, prior to the sacrifice bunt. A non-intuitive result. Sure, but there are other outcomes possible between the first situation and the second situation. He mentions he left out the failed sac bunt attempt in his analysis, but what about the “Everybody’s safe” situation (and again, imagine Harry saying that slowly like he’s having trouble getting it all out of his mouth, dripping with disgust). Those two numbers aren’t directly comparable without also taking the alternative bunt attempt outcomes into consideration. And not even a mention of defensive bunt defense, faking a bunt, etc. From this argument, Kenny seems to over-generalize. I wondered if I had wandered into one of those books that take numbers to make a case where you could also re-analyze and make the opposite case…
I hadn’t heard of Brian Kenny prior to reading this book. I prefer my baseball broadcasts local. In my mind, Kenny started this book in a hole. But, thankfully, he had the personality and analysis to pull it out. I enjoyed the way Kenny told his story. He does talk about himself, quite a lot. After all, he’s a sports broadcaster, and those folks aren’t timid, nor do they lack ego. But he has a sense of humor about himself and the situations he’s been in. And as you read you find he has taken a story about his fantasy baseball league and segued into a detailed discussion of some aspect of baseball with the analytic analysis to back up his claims. Fun for those that like to conjecture about baseball using history as a guide.
March 3, 2021
At first, I thought this would be the rantings of just one more guy questioning the tradition of baseball thinking. But as I got into the book, I loved it.
I totally agree with Brian Kenny's concept of "herd thinking," the idea that since it's been done this way for decades, we'll keep doing it. I see that with All-Star baseball voting. The best players of the first half of a season often don't get chosen merely because voters always go with the herd in selecting the most "popular" player.
And it gets deeper. Kenny even talks about herd mentality when choosing coaches.
One of the more interesting chapters I read was the debate about the 1941 MVP between Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams. DiMaggio won it, but folklore had it that sports writers chose DiMaggio only because they didn't like Williams' demeanor toward writers. Kenny shows how DiMaggio had an MVP season that may have been one of the best seasons ever.
You'd think a book debunking sabermetrics and stats would be boring. And me, an old tyme traditionalist who still thinks of Earl Weaver's method of victory - good pitching and home runs- as the way to be, would be bored by this topic. Instead, Kenny writes well and engages the reader quickly and while some may disagree with some of his ideas, his passion comes through well.
This really is a good book, especially with baseball season approaching.
I totally agree with Brian Kenny's concept of "herd thinking," the idea that since it's been done this way for decades, we'll keep doing it. I see that with All-Star baseball voting. The best players of the first half of a season often don't get chosen merely because voters always go with the herd in selecting the most "popular" player.
And it gets deeper. Kenny even talks about herd mentality when choosing coaches.
One of the more interesting chapters I read was the debate about the 1941 MVP between Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams. DiMaggio won it, but folklore had it that sports writers chose DiMaggio only because they didn't like Williams' demeanor toward writers. Kenny shows how DiMaggio had an MVP season that may have been one of the best seasons ever.
You'd think a book debunking sabermetrics and stats would be boring. And me, an old tyme traditionalist who still thinks of Earl Weaver's method of victory - good pitching and home runs- as the way to be, would be bored by this topic. Instead, Kenny writes well and engages the reader quickly and while some may disagree with some of his ideas, his passion comes through well.
This really is a good book, especially with baseball season approaching.
July 14, 2016
http://www.themaineedge.com/sports/ba...
Tradition is a hell of a thing. It’s hard to overstate just how difficult it can be to overcome the inertia of “this is how we’ve always done it.”
There are few places in popular culture where that sentiment rings truer than in professional sports. Change – particularly intellectual change – comes at a glacial pace.
Brian Kenny, formerly of ESPN and now of the MLB Network, is one of the few figures in sports media who is unwilling to wait.
Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution” offers some insight regarding his drive for those intellectual changes within Major League Baseball. His passion for the analytic side of the sport has made him a bit of an outlier, a lone voice shouting sabermetrics into a wilderness filled with old-school writers and ex-ballplayers – all adherents to the aforementioned “this is how we’ve always done it.”
Statistical analysis has allowed us to look beneath the surface of the game that we love, to interpret data in such a way as to enhance our understanding far beyond the basic back-of-the-baseball-card numbers that have become inseparable from the experience.
The ideas that Kenny espouses – ideas that were pioneered by such figures as Bill James – can run contrary to how we currently see the game. His “Kill the Win” campaign argues against using such idiosyncratically and arbitrarily determined stats as pitching wins and saves as any sort of real measuring stick. He bemoans the love affair with commonly-cherished things like batting average and RBIs, choosing instead to celebrate on-base percentage and runs scored. He values walks and despises bunts. He believes that starting pitcher usage is in need of an overhaul and that the Triple Crown is overrated.
Kenny looks not only at what statistics can tell us about the modern game, but at how those same numbers relate to baseball’s history. Some of the most entertaining passages in “Ahead of the Curve” come when Kenny looks back at some of the outdated MVP votes and Hall of Fame snubs that resulted from the conventional wisdom of the times. We’re not talking ancient history, either – look at the inexplicable reality that is two-time MVP Juan Gonzalez.
His passion for what he believes is palpable – and when you’re reading, you can’t help but be pulled in. Whether he’s sharing stories of his on-set antagonism with players-turned-analysts or talking about his long-term admiration for the work of James and other proto-sabermetricians, Kenny wants to catch the baseball conversation up with the fascinating work that has been done by the analytics vanguard in recent years. He wants a world where logic is on equal footing when it comes to looking at the game. He wants to bring baseball knowledge into the 21st century.
But what he wants most of all is for everyone – fans, coaches and reporters alike – to take a step back and think logically and for themselves.
What Kenny has done here is walk a very fine line. This is the sort of book that could very easily become a tail-swallowing ouroboros that disappears into itself in a puff of acronyms. It could also have been a “Baby’s First Sabermetrics” primer that would simultaneously condescend and fail to significantly inform. It could have been too dry or too light or too wonky or too simplistic.
Yet “Ahead of the Curve” is none of those things. Kenny’s matter-of-fact style blends nicely with the statistical complexities he presents; he puts forth his ideas, anecdotes and arguments with clarity and humor. It’s a wonderfully informative, wonderfully readable book.
“Ahead of the Curve” can most easily be described as a sort of gateway book, an entry point into the realm of baseball analytics. That isn’t to say that it is remedial – even those with a passing understanding of basic sabermetrics is going to learn a lot about the statistical gears that are eternally turning between the lines. A must-read for any baseball fan, statistically-minded or otherwise.
Tradition is a hell of a thing. It’s hard to overstate just how difficult it can be to overcome the inertia of “this is how we’ve always done it.”
There are few places in popular culture where that sentiment rings truer than in professional sports. Change – particularly intellectual change – comes at a glacial pace.
Brian Kenny, formerly of ESPN and now of the MLB Network, is one of the few figures in sports media who is unwilling to wait.
Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution” offers some insight regarding his drive for those intellectual changes within Major League Baseball. His passion for the analytic side of the sport has made him a bit of an outlier, a lone voice shouting sabermetrics into a wilderness filled with old-school writers and ex-ballplayers – all adherents to the aforementioned “this is how we’ve always done it.”
Statistical analysis has allowed us to look beneath the surface of the game that we love, to interpret data in such a way as to enhance our understanding far beyond the basic back-of-the-baseball-card numbers that have become inseparable from the experience.
The ideas that Kenny espouses – ideas that were pioneered by such figures as Bill James – can run contrary to how we currently see the game. His “Kill the Win” campaign argues against using such idiosyncratically and arbitrarily determined stats as pitching wins and saves as any sort of real measuring stick. He bemoans the love affair with commonly-cherished things like batting average and RBIs, choosing instead to celebrate on-base percentage and runs scored. He values walks and despises bunts. He believes that starting pitcher usage is in need of an overhaul and that the Triple Crown is overrated.
Kenny looks not only at what statistics can tell us about the modern game, but at how those same numbers relate to baseball’s history. Some of the most entertaining passages in “Ahead of the Curve” come when Kenny looks back at some of the outdated MVP votes and Hall of Fame snubs that resulted from the conventional wisdom of the times. We’re not talking ancient history, either – look at the inexplicable reality that is two-time MVP Juan Gonzalez.
His passion for what he believes is palpable – and when you’re reading, you can’t help but be pulled in. Whether he’s sharing stories of his on-set antagonism with players-turned-analysts or talking about his long-term admiration for the work of James and other proto-sabermetricians, Kenny wants to catch the baseball conversation up with the fascinating work that has been done by the analytics vanguard in recent years. He wants a world where logic is on equal footing when it comes to looking at the game. He wants to bring baseball knowledge into the 21st century.
But what he wants most of all is for everyone – fans, coaches and reporters alike – to take a step back and think logically and for themselves.
What Kenny has done here is walk a very fine line. This is the sort of book that could very easily become a tail-swallowing ouroboros that disappears into itself in a puff of acronyms. It could also have been a “Baby’s First Sabermetrics” primer that would simultaneously condescend and fail to significantly inform. It could have been too dry or too light or too wonky or too simplistic.
Yet “Ahead of the Curve” is none of those things. Kenny’s matter-of-fact style blends nicely with the statistical complexities he presents; he puts forth his ideas, anecdotes and arguments with clarity and humor. It’s a wonderfully informative, wonderfully readable book.
“Ahead of the Curve” can most easily be described as a sort of gateway book, an entry point into the realm of baseball analytics. That isn’t to say that it is remedial – even those with a passing understanding of basic sabermetrics is going to learn a lot about the statistical gears that are eternally turning between the lines. A must-read for any baseball fan, statistically-minded or otherwise.
June 17, 2017
I listened to the audio version of this book read by the author. Average book at best. Kenny is very opinionated. He makes lots of sweeping generalizations even though he complains about people who make generalizations against his beliefs. Contends that ones looks and position played on the field is how managers are hired. Although he mentions that good looking catchers can be the right choice, he insinuates that any of these current managers were hired because of their looks/position not because they were the right person for the job. Some of his points are interesting like Jack Morris vs Mickey Lolich for the hall of fame. Both were similar pitchers with similar numbers, yet Morris had significantly better resulting in HOF voting. Kenny contends it is all on looks. Not sure I buy that as there could be other factors, but it was interesting to looking at the comparison. He tended to boast about everything he predicted and how good his fantasy teams were. I get he was using it as the reason why sabermetrics is better, but it became annoying after a while. I did like his break down of the different sabermetric stats as I did not know how they all worked. Overall Kenny does bleed passionately for baseball, but he needs to tone down the righteousness. If your looking for a decent book to explain sabermetrics, you could do worse.
January 14, 2020
Loved this! I am a lover of stats (when it comes to baseball anyway), and learning how the game is shifting this way thrills me! I found myself wanting to yell YES when I read about concepts I feel so strongly about, but just didn’t have the knowledge to really express. A great read for anyone wanting to learn about the evolution of the sport.
July 11, 2016
“Baseball,” MLB Network anchor Brian Kenny writes, “is played both out on the field, and in our minds. I’ve found it to be beautiful both ways.”
He’s absolutely right. And in our minds, baseball is about warm memories, great plays, and numbers. Always, numbers. I learned how to do straight division by figuring out batting averages, for example. Working out ERA was a complex equation, but it was easy once you got the knack of it.
So, I love to play with baseball numbers. So does Kenny, but not the kind “traditional” baseball fans are familiar with. Kenny is the face of sabermetrics on sports television, and his “Clubhouse Confidential” show is a sabermetrics smorgasbord. Kenny is playing with a different set of numbers, and in his book, Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution (Simon & Schuster; hardback; $28; 353 pages), he provides a cerebral, absorbing and thought-provoking look to baseball’s new algebra.
Say the word sabermetrics around old school baseball fans, and they trot out the garlic, mirrors and sharpened sticks to ward off the evil spirits. True story: I was listening to sports talk radio this morning in Tampa, and one of the announcers said how much he hated sabermetrics. And then he decided to come up with his own formula.
“I know how to figure WAR (wins above replacement),” he said. “Take a guy’s batting average and divide by his address. That’s WAR.”
“Yeah, what is it good for?” his sidekick asked.
While I appreciate the reference to Edwin Starr’s song “War” that hit No. 1 on the Billboard charts in late August 1970 — and I am sure that reference went over more the heads of more than half of the listening audience — it was a gratuitous slap and shows that even passionate baseball fans keep sticking their heads in the sand.
The value of WAR, Kenny writes, is that “it forces you to confront the totality of the player’s contribution.”
Kenny is the kind of media guy that doesn’t follow the herd, as he calls it. He’s always looking for a fresh angle, questioning, thinking, weighing different scenarios. And that’s what shines through in Ahead of the Curve. Kenny notes that the three most influential thinkers in baseball history are Henry Chadwick (who invented the boxscore and created batting average and ERA in his role as a baseball statistician), Branch Rickey and Bill James. Rickey was the first baseball man to hire a full-time statistician and to realize that on-base average was important, that RBIs were a misleading statistic and that fielding statistics were “utterly useless.” I don’t know what was written about Chadwick, but I know that both Rickey and James received plenty of negative press for thinking outside the box.
Statistics are a funny thing. We can rattle them off — and so can players — but sometimes old school managers don’t want to hear about them. Pitcher-turned-author Jim Bouton wrote that in 1969, he told Joe Schultz, his manager in Seattle, that he’d only walked two batters in his last nine innings of relief.
“Aww, I don’t want to hear any statistics,” Schultz said with a dismissive wave. “I can see what’s going on with my own eyes.”
The best chapter in the Ahead of the Curve is called “bullpenning.” Kenny argues that it is not good baseball to leave the starting pitcher in as long as possible; rather, wheeling out a fresh arm every one or two innings is a much more effective use of a pitching staff. More pitchers throwing fewer innings can be productive, he says.
“An optimal pitching staff would be made up of roughly the same number of pitchers, but with the workload divvied up,” Kenny writes.
Kenny recalls how the Oakland Athletics of the 1970s did not hesitate to bring out their “closer” in the fifth or sixth inning. It was not unusual to see Rollie Fingers for the A’s, or Sparky Lyle (Yankees) and Mike Marshall (Dodgers) entering the game in the sixth inning to snuff out a rally. To take it back even further, Casey Stengel won 10 American League pennants from 1949 to 1960 and did not hesitate to change pitchers early and often. Perhaps that’s the reason the “Ol’ Perfessor” winked an awful lot; he’d stumbled onto to something valuable.
The game is always on the line, as Kenny writes. Why wait?
Kenny also uses new numbers to argue for some retired players that didn’t get close to the Hall of Fame — but in Kenny’s analysis, should have. For example, Tim Raines compares favorably to Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR (yes, I divided Raines’ batting average by his address — he lived at a house with a two-digit address). Gwynn has a big lead in batting average, and there is the argument: batting average over OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). Isn’t a player who gets on base via a walk and enhances his chances to score by stealing bases (like Raines did), just as valuable as a man who has a gaudy batting average?
Kenny thinks so. And that’s no knock on Gwynn, either. But Raines helped produce runs, too, and runs help win ballgames.
He also makes the argument for Keith Hernandez based on his fielding ability and his talent for leading his league in assists — not a flip to the pitcher, but throws to second and third base to cut down the lead runner.
It’s fun to argue numbers. And Kenny jumps into another numerical debate when he argues that Mike Trout, and not Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, should have been the A.L.’s most valuable player in 2012. As Kenny points out, in figuring out batting average, a single can be just as valuable as a home run. That’s not always the case in real action, but you get the idea. If I collect 265 hits and all of them are singles and I bat .412, is that more valuable than a guy who hits .290 but hits 45 homers and drives in 150 runs? Interesting question.
And about those homers and RBIs. Are they meaningful? That is to say, do the homers come when the game is on the line, or are they solo shots late in the game when the outcome already has been decided?
Back to Trout vs. Cabrera. The argument for Miggy “flouted the basic set of principles of the old school’s beef with SABR members” — you can’t judge everything by the numbers.
And yet, Kenny writes, the voters for the MVP award handed the honor to Cabrera based on three hitting numbers.
The arguments will continue to rage, and as Kenny writes, “it’s about to get wonky.”
Other issues Kenny writes about include the wisdom of bunting, who should bat second in the lineup, and downplaying the glamour of a pitcher getting a win.
This is an entertaining book. You can still be old school and enjoy it. All Kenny is asking is to look for the difference between what seems obvious and what is actually going on.
“Ask a question, get your answer, and ask the next question,” he writes. “Think critically and independently.
“Avail yourself of bright people and new ideas.”
That way, no matter how you prefer to crunch the numbers, baseball will remain a beautiful game on the field — and in our minds.
He’s absolutely right. And in our minds, baseball is about warm memories, great plays, and numbers. Always, numbers. I learned how to do straight division by figuring out batting averages, for example. Working out ERA was a complex equation, but it was easy once you got the knack of it.
So, I love to play with baseball numbers. So does Kenny, but not the kind “traditional” baseball fans are familiar with. Kenny is the face of sabermetrics on sports television, and his “Clubhouse Confidential” show is a sabermetrics smorgasbord. Kenny is playing with a different set of numbers, and in his book, Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution (Simon & Schuster; hardback; $28; 353 pages), he provides a cerebral, absorbing and thought-provoking look to baseball’s new algebra.
Say the word sabermetrics around old school baseball fans, and they trot out the garlic, mirrors and sharpened sticks to ward off the evil spirits. True story: I was listening to sports talk radio this morning in Tampa, and one of the announcers said how much he hated sabermetrics. And then he decided to come up with his own formula.
“I know how to figure WAR (wins above replacement),” he said. “Take a guy’s batting average and divide by his address. That’s WAR.”
“Yeah, what is it good for?” his sidekick asked.
While I appreciate the reference to Edwin Starr’s song “War” that hit No. 1 on the Billboard charts in late August 1970 — and I am sure that reference went over more the heads of more than half of the listening audience — it was a gratuitous slap and shows that even passionate baseball fans keep sticking their heads in the sand.
The value of WAR, Kenny writes, is that “it forces you to confront the totality of the player’s contribution.”
Kenny is the kind of media guy that doesn’t follow the herd, as he calls it. He’s always looking for a fresh angle, questioning, thinking, weighing different scenarios. And that’s what shines through in Ahead of the Curve. Kenny notes that the three most influential thinkers in baseball history are Henry Chadwick (who invented the boxscore and created batting average and ERA in his role as a baseball statistician), Branch Rickey and Bill James. Rickey was the first baseball man to hire a full-time statistician and to realize that on-base average was important, that RBIs were a misleading statistic and that fielding statistics were “utterly useless.” I don’t know what was written about Chadwick, but I know that both Rickey and James received plenty of negative press for thinking outside the box.
Statistics are a funny thing. We can rattle them off — and so can players — but sometimes old school managers don’t want to hear about them. Pitcher-turned-author Jim Bouton wrote that in 1969, he told Joe Schultz, his manager in Seattle, that he’d only walked two batters in his last nine innings of relief.
“Aww, I don’t want to hear any statistics,” Schultz said with a dismissive wave. “I can see what’s going on with my own eyes.”
The best chapter in the Ahead of the Curve is called “bullpenning.” Kenny argues that it is not good baseball to leave the starting pitcher in as long as possible; rather, wheeling out a fresh arm every one or two innings is a much more effective use of a pitching staff. More pitchers throwing fewer innings can be productive, he says.
“An optimal pitching staff would be made up of roughly the same number of pitchers, but with the workload divvied up,” Kenny writes.
Kenny recalls how the Oakland Athletics of the 1970s did not hesitate to bring out their “closer” in the fifth or sixth inning. It was not unusual to see Rollie Fingers for the A’s, or Sparky Lyle (Yankees) and Mike Marshall (Dodgers) entering the game in the sixth inning to snuff out a rally. To take it back even further, Casey Stengel won 10 American League pennants from 1949 to 1960 and did not hesitate to change pitchers early and often. Perhaps that’s the reason the “Ol’ Perfessor” winked an awful lot; he’d stumbled onto to something valuable.
The game is always on the line, as Kenny writes. Why wait?
Kenny also uses new numbers to argue for some retired players that didn’t get close to the Hall of Fame — but in Kenny’s analysis, should have. For example, Tim Raines compares favorably to Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and WAR (yes, I divided Raines’ batting average by his address — he lived at a house with a two-digit address). Gwynn has a big lead in batting average, and there is the argument: batting average over OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). Isn’t a player who gets on base via a walk and enhances his chances to score by stealing bases (like Raines did), just as valuable as a man who has a gaudy batting average?
Kenny thinks so. And that’s no knock on Gwynn, either. But Raines helped produce runs, too, and runs help win ballgames.
He also makes the argument for Keith Hernandez based on his fielding ability and his talent for leading his league in assists — not a flip to the pitcher, but throws to second and third base to cut down the lead runner.
It’s fun to argue numbers. And Kenny jumps into another numerical debate when he argues that Mike Trout, and not Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, should have been the A.L.’s most valuable player in 2012. As Kenny points out, in figuring out batting average, a single can be just as valuable as a home run. That’s not always the case in real action, but you get the idea. If I collect 265 hits and all of them are singles and I bat .412, is that more valuable than a guy who hits .290 but hits 45 homers and drives in 150 runs? Interesting question.
And about those homers and RBIs. Are they meaningful? That is to say, do the homers come when the game is on the line, or are they solo shots late in the game when the outcome already has been decided?
Back to Trout vs. Cabrera. The argument for Miggy “flouted the basic set of principles of the old school’s beef with SABR members” — you can’t judge everything by the numbers.
And yet, Kenny writes, the voters for the MVP award handed the honor to Cabrera based on three hitting numbers.
The arguments will continue to rage, and as Kenny writes, “it’s about to get wonky.”
Other issues Kenny writes about include the wisdom of bunting, who should bat second in the lineup, and downplaying the glamour of a pitcher getting a win.
This is an entertaining book. You can still be old school and enjoy it. All Kenny is asking is to look for the difference between what seems obvious and what is actually going on.
“Ask a question, get your answer, and ask the next question,” he writes. “Think critically and independently.
“Avail yourself of bright people and new ideas.”
That way, no matter how you prefer to crunch the numbers, baseball will remain a beautiful game on the field — and in our minds.
October 7, 2019
I wasn’t sure what to expect from this book, but WOW!
Excellent topic and covered by an expert on Sabremetrics, Bryan Kenny. I listened to the audiobook, narrated by the author (which I always think is better if the author does it).
This book was a fantastic history lesson on the introduction of stats to baseball, the reluctance to use more stats, and the slow acceptance to modern day baseball analysis.
It realyl rekindled my love for the stats and explained a lot of the new metrics I did not understand and why they are more important than historically accepted metrics.
I highly recommend this book for any baseball lover.
Excellent topic and covered by an expert on Sabremetrics, Bryan Kenny. I listened to the audiobook, narrated by the author (which I always think is better if the author does it).
This book was a fantastic history lesson on the introduction of stats to baseball, the reluctance to use more stats, and the slow acceptance to modern day baseball analysis.
It realyl rekindled my love for the stats and explained a lot of the new metrics I did not understand and why they are more important than historically accepted metrics.
I highly recommend this book for any baseball lover.
May 22, 2017
Baseball <3
June 30, 2016
Brian Kenny built a following when he worked as a baseball analyst at ESPN and his reputation as an outspoken commentator has grown even larger since he moved over to the MLB Network. One reason for this is his continuous questioning of traditional statistics and strategy when evaluating players and the best course to take during certain game situations.
In this entertaining book, he explains many of his positions in a manner that might make some fans uncomfortable, but will certainly be topics of discussion the next time a reader wants to debate the merits of a bunt or if it is wise to not have a team’s best relief pitcher not appear in a game unless it is the ninth inning and the team is ahead by three runs or less.
Those two examples are just a small sample of the types of conventional wisdom he questions and then provides an alternative based on statistics, logic and analysis. While this may sound fairly dry, the writing and creativity is entertaining. For example, in his explanation of why it is not good strategy to leave a starting pitcher on the mound as long as possible and then not put the best reliever into the game until the ninth inning in a “save” situation, he calls his alternative strategy “Bullpenning.” In this chapter, just about every piece of conventional wisdom is thrown out and a new idea, based on statistical analysis is proposed. The reader may or may not agree with Kenny’s radicalism, but it is written in such a manner that one will at least acknowledge that it is something to consider.
Kenny’s attack on old-school values is not limited to strategy – it also goes into statistics that have been the basis for awards, big-money contracts and even votes for the Hall of Fame. There are great write-ups on each of these three topics, along with several others, on why the stats that most fans are familiar with (home runs, batting average, the Triple Crown and so on) are poor indicators of a player’s value and talent and instead more advanced statistics such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) are much better. There are many new statistics used in which a reader, including this one who has been one of those who has relied on the traditional statistics, may need explanations, which Kenny includes at the end of the book.
What really sets this book apart from others touting these advanced statistics, or “sabermetrics” as first coined by Bill James (who Kenny calls one of the seven most influential people in the history of the game), is the writing style. Yes, Kenny questions those who are slow to embrace these changes, but when the traditional statistics and strategy works, he acknowledges it. An example is when early and mid-20th century writers elected worthy players to the Hall of Fame, which are backed up with advanced analysis not available at that time. Therefore, it is not a complete vilification of those who have not embraced the new wave of analysis – but at times the criticism of this line of thinking can be biting (but not snarky).
This book is highly recommended for anyone who enjoys the game. If the reader is one who has embraced sabermetrics, he or she will love findings like those on which big-money free agents were worth the big contract and which ones were busts. If the reader is one who held on to traditional thinking, like this reviewer, then the solid research, reasoning and logic explaining why those values need to change will make the reader at least think, if not embrace these ideas.
I wish to thank Simon & Schuster for providing a copy of the book via NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.
http://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/201...
In this entertaining book, he explains many of his positions in a manner that might make some fans uncomfortable, but will certainly be topics of discussion the next time a reader wants to debate the merits of a bunt or if it is wise to not have a team’s best relief pitcher not appear in a game unless it is the ninth inning and the team is ahead by three runs or less.
Those two examples are just a small sample of the types of conventional wisdom he questions and then provides an alternative based on statistics, logic and analysis. While this may sound fairly dry, the writing and creativity is entertaining. For example, in his explanation of why it is not good strategy to leave a starting pitcher on the mound as long as possible and then not put the best reliever into the game until the ninth inning in a “save” situation, he calls his alternative strategy “Bullpenning.” In this chapter, just about every piece of conventional wisdom is thrown out and a new idea, based on statistical analysis is proposed. The reader may or may not agree with Kenny’s radicalism, but it is written in such a manner that one will at least acknowledge that it is something to consider.
Kenny’s attack on old-school values is not limited to strategy – it also goes into statistics that have been the basis for awards, big-money contracts and even votes for the Hall of Fame. There are great write-ups on each of these three topics, along with several others, on why the stats that most fans are familiar with (home runs, batting average, the Triple Crown and so on) are poor indicators of a player’s value and talent and instead more advanced statistics such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) are much better. There are many new statistics used in which a reader, including this one who has been one of those who has relied on the traditional statistics, may need explanations, which Kenny includes at the end of the book.
What really sets this book apart from others touting these advanced statistics, or “sabermetrics” as first coined by Bill James (who Kenny calls one of the seven most influential people in the history of the game), is the writing style. Yes, Kenny questions those who are slow to embrace these changes, but when the traditional statistics and strategy works, he acknowledges it. An example is when early and mid-20th century writers elected worthy players to the Hall of Fame, which are backed up with advanced analysis not available at that time. Therefore, it is not a complete vilification of those who have not embraced the new wave of analysis – but at times the criticism of this line of thinking can be biting (but not snarky).
This book is highly recommended for anyone who enjoys the game. If the reader is one who has embraced sabermetrics, he or she will love findings like those on which big-money free agents were worth the big contract and which ones were busts. If the reader is one who held on to traditional thinking, like this reviewer, then the solid research, reasoning and logic explaining why those values need to change will make the reader at least think, if not embrace these ideas.
I wish to thank Simon & Schuster for providing a copy of the book via NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.
http://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/201...
August 20, 2016
Brian Kenny puts his views on new baseball that I have heard him talk about for years on ESPN, and MLB programs. With the new age of information, he explains not only the new terminology, (WAR, VORP, WHIP, WPA), to name a few there are many more. Having this information and then having him explain each one by examples of either a player from today or a player from the past is very helpful. He also goes into his discussions with Bill James who was hired by the Red Sox before they won their first of three World Series since the so called curse. Once you have all of this information it does start to make sense. Will it all change like he suggests, getting rid of wins for the pitchers I don’t think so, but you never know. I do agree with him on that the value of the home run is too high. I remember years ago Sparky Anderson saying that he would take three doubles and some singles over a home run, because a home run a lot of times was a rally killer for his team. That is something that is missing. He also talks about the use of shifts that have been put in place now and how the hitters have not adjusted their swing to take advantage of the open field that is in play. A hitter like Brian McCann, for the Yankees. When he was with Atlanta he had a career AVG of .277, now with the Yankees it is .232 because he has changed his swing to take advantage of the short field in left. If he went back to using the whole field his avg. would go back up and they would have to take the shift off when he came up to bat. That is just one example. I also liked his break down of some players who should be in the Hall of Fame and he compares their stats with others at their same positions who are in. Overall a very good book and one that will help explain to anyone the saber-metrics. A very good read. I got this book from netgalley. I gave it 5 stars. Follow us at
www.1rad-readerreviews.com
www.1rad-readerreviews.com
August 27, 2016
Great insights and well researched and documented. My only complaint is that it reads like a stream of twitter thoughts and random arguments that have no cohesive narrative. That's not uncommon for sports writing in general. But Lewis and Alan Schwarz and some other writers have shown that you can be both analytically sharp and interested in narrative cohesion.
And yes, Kill the Win. and the Save. And Batting Average. And for the love of god stop bunting.
And yes, Kill the Win. and the Save. And Batting Average. And for the love of god stop bunting.
February 7, 2018
I dislike polemics, and while this is fairly polite as far as those go, it still grates all the same.
July 29, 2018
Interesting case studies throughout using and explaining analytics. Often times though reads as the author boasting about how smart he is and how long he’s been that smart.
January 1, 2025
Audiobook.
March 26, 2017
I have a very on-again, off-again relationship with baseball statistics and sabermetrics, but it’s similar to that of many others, down to the “My mother threw my complete Topps 1956 away!” I’ve never been hard-core, but I’ve loved the game for, well, about 65 years, and have loved its numbers as well. Cards, Baseball Digest, Sporting News, Street and Smith, Bill James Abstracts, Elias Annuals, Total Baseball, Moneyball, Baseball Prospectus. But even as I remain an interested amateur onlooker who can talk a little OPS, FIP, and WAR, mostly, all my purchasing behavior is repetitive, learned behavior. “It’s February. Baseball is coming. Get an annual (or two) and bone up of my teams and their competitors in the preseason.” Sure, from time to time, I’d pull them out again, watching games on TV or before going to the ball yard. In the 21st century, though, the Internet made it hard to justify purchasing baseball stat books when Baseball Reference has everything online.
But unlike friends who did go on, as well as Kenny, who graduated to genuine stat geekdom, I never played Rotisserie Baseball (which strikes me as the Great Differentiator: once you have to draft, you’re generally all in on sabermetrics), never joined on online service, never subscribed to the hard-core publications. Just a more than casual fan, mostly getting ready for the new season.
Okay. That was a long windup for a pitch of about equal length.
I loved Brian Kenny’s book. It does indeed take you, as the subtitle claims, “Inside the Baseball Revolution.” Okay, Michael Lewis’s Moneyball took us inside the baseball revolution, too, 13 years earlier. That book, combined with the Theo Epstein Red Sox that won the Series in 2004 and 2007 (teams that included Kevin Youkilis, Moneyball's “Euclis, the Greek God of Walks,” a year before he was called up to the show), really and truly stoked the fire. Kenny describes the steps by which the Sabermetrics Revolution has come full cycle, overturning the traditional scouting and front office “Looks Good, Will to Win” Paradigm in favor of a Sabermetric Analytics Paradigm that has been adopted, with variations, league-wide. He tells that story by jumping around among:
o Topical debunking chapters (using analysis to knock what the Old School thought it knew – the primacy of “looks good,” BA, RBI, W’s, S’s, Triple Crowns, etc. – into a cocked. These are all superb. My personal favorites take up traditional pitcher management – starters, middle relievers, setup, closer – and tosses it in the memory hole in favor of maximally flexible “bullpenning,” which is what you see in All-Star games – Clay Kershaw goes two (or one if he’s getting shelled), Max Scherzer goes two, Trevor Rosenthal comes in in the 5th to put out a fire…and on. If you’re up by 2 in the 5th inning and have men on second and third with 1 out, the game is on the line. Bring in your closer.
o Autobiographical chapters detailing how Kenny had his statistical epiphany, became the leading ESPN advocate of Sabermetric Analysis, and duked it out with the Old School former ballplayer at the table every night) on ESPN and, later, the MLB Network. Kenny has a lovely chapter on his first meeting with “the Godfather,” Bill James, who seems, for all that hard bark, in the end to be a romantic, a sentimentalist.
o Baseball-lore and Clubhouse-stories chapters that simply tell great stories – Kenny must be a great raconteur if he’s carrying all this around in his head - illuminated at some point by statistical analysis. My favorite takes up the “Who was greater in 1941?” DiMag or Teddy Baseball, that is simply over-the-top GREAT.
o Chapters I’d simply call simply Geekbait, in which Kenny lays detail on with a statistical trowel but bring the matter to a sharp point, all the while keeping it light and remaining highly entertaining, provocative, and sense-making.
Finally, throughout, Brian Kenny is a very funny guy, sometimes with an adjective - - other times with a punchline, still other times with a captioned photo.
One minor carp: Kenny plays the “I can’t believe they’re still doing this” card a little too often, in a variety of variations a la “why good people make bad decisions.” Invariable answer is, “They’re Old School. They loved the cut of his jib. They didn’t consult the performance metrics or, if they did, they didn’t trust them.“ Okay, I get it. I’m reading your book and I’m a Red Sox fan. I got it a long time ago.
But in the end, it’s all good, Reggie! Love this book, will reread large passages of it throughout the season, and probably take it up and reread it next spring.
But unlike friends who did go on, as well as Kenny, who graduated to genuine stat geekdom, I never played Rotisserie Baseball (which strikes me as the Great Differentiator: once you have to draft, you’re generally all in on sabermetrics), never joined on online service, never subscribed to the hard-core publications. Just a more than casual fan, mostly getting ready for the new season.
Okay. That was a long windup for a pitch of about equal length.
I loved Brian Kenny’s book. It does indeed take you, as the subtitle claims, “Inside the Baseball Revolution.” Okay, Michael Lewis’s Moneyball took us inside the baseball revolution, too, 13 years earlier. That book, combined with the Theo Epstein Red Sox that won the Series in 2004 and 2007 (teams that included Kevin Youkilis, Moneyball's “Euclis, the Greek God of Walks,” a year before he was called up to the show), really and truly stoked the fire. Kenny describes the steps by which the Sabermetrics Revolution has come full cycle, overturning the traditional scouting and front office “Looks Good, Will to Win” Paradigm in favor of a Sabermetric Analytics Paradigm that has been adopted, with variations, league-wide. He tells that story by jumping around among:
o Topical debunking chapters (using analysis to knock what the Old School thought it knew – the primacy of “looks good,” BA, RBI, W’s, S’s, Triple Crowns, etc. – into a cocked. These are all superb. My personal favorites take up traditional pitcher management – starters, middle relievers, setup, closer – and tosses it in the memory hole in favor of maximally flexible “bullpenning,” which is what you see in All-Star games – Clay Kershaw goes two (or one if he’s getting shelled), Max Scherzer goes two, Trevor Rosenthal comes in in the 5th to put out a fire…and on. If you’re up by 2 in the 5th inning and have men on second and third with 1 out, the game is on the line. Bring in your closer.
o Autobiographical chapters detailing how Kenny had his statistical epiphany, became the leading ESPN advocate of Sabermetric Analysis, and duked it out with the Old School former ballplayer at the table every night) on ESPN and, later, the MLB Network. Kenny has a lovely chapter on his first meeting with “the Godfather,” Bill James, who seems, for all that hard bark, in the end to be a romantic, a sentimentalist.
o Baseball-lore and Clubhouse-stories chapters that simply tell great stories – Kenny must be a great raconteur if he’s carrying all this around in his head - illuminated at some point by statistical analysis. My favorite takes up the “Who was greater in 1941?” DiMag or Teddy Baseball, that is simply over-the-top GREAT.
o Chapters I’d simply call simply Geekbait, in which Kenny lays detail on with a statistical trowel but bring the matter to a sharp point, all the while keeping it light and remaining highly entertaining, provocative, and sense-making.
Finally, throughout, Brian Kenny is a very funny guy, sometimes with an adjective - - other times with a punchline, still other times with a captioned photo.
One minor carp: Kenny plays the “I can’t believe they’re still doing this” card a little too often, in a variety of variations a la “why good people make bad decisions.” Invariable answer is, “They’re Old School. They loved the cut of his jib. They didn’t consult the performance metrics or, if they did, they didn’t trust them.“ Okay, I get it. I’m reading your book and I’m a Red Sox fan. I got it a long time ago.
But in the end, it’s all good, Reggie! Love this book, will reread large passages of it throughout the season, and probably take it up and reread it next spring.
December 20, 2017
I flew through this book. It is an engaging read and gives a good and relevant synopsis of the analytics revolution in baseball. I can't say I agree with all of it, however the ideas and approaches are fascinating to the game on the field and behind the scenes. Ultimately, this book looks at the difference in what is apparent and what actually happens. It's interesting how the industry has shifted and uses traditional methods as well as modern methods to construct a baseball organization. It all helps to produce a wider view of the game. Of note is chapter 14 - it distills the value of analytical approaches, but digs even deeper on how to use that information (even revealing that even the stats may not tell the whole story). That chapter evaluates the 1941 seasons of Joe DiMaggio (he never missed a cutoff man) and Ted Williams season. Read that chapter. I thought it gave the most relevant look at how this relates to the game. Get ready for VORP, WAR, BABIP, FIP, OPS, and OPS+.
September 10, 2025
A history of baseball analytics, presented in a clear, easy to read, irreverent, enjoyable and consistently interesting prose. This book really is one of a kind and feels current and pertinent even 9 years after publication. This is a labor of love from Kenny and should be required reading for everyone who grew up loving MLB in the 20th century. Its a gift to those folks like myself that this book was written, that it was written exactly as it needed to be for us, and the author was the absolute perfect person for the task. No math or science degree required, no sleep inducing formulas or deep dives into the numbers. Literally everything Kenny presents is convincing and pretty irrefutable. It's like talking baseball to the guy sitting next to you at the bar, except this guy has been doing his homework (and yours too) for decades, and has the proofs. Kudos to Kenny!
January 24, 2018
This was OK. There's a bit too much shorthand on the sabermetric stats (which are explained in a glossary, but would have been better explained when they first appear in the text.) The arguments seem sound, but Kenny gets a bit repetitive. Still, a nice balance of historic and contemporary questions, and a nice challenge to baseball minds still relying on ways of using players that could be improved on.
One question I'm left with... Is it worth throwing out all of the traditions of baseball to get some slight performance improvements? One of Kenny's recommendations that would really throw comparisons and history out the window would be to remove starting pitching and go with an all bullpen approach.
One question I'm left with... Is it worth throwing out all of the traditions of baseball to get some slight performance improvements? One of Kenny's recommendations that would really throw comparisons and history out the window would be to remove starting pitching and go with an all bullpen approach.
June 6, 2019
This book is aimed at the hard-core baseball fan who is willing to dispense with tradition and look at the numbers. Kenny makes one convincing case after another for why the "old ways" need to be thrown out, with especially cutting arguments against meaningless stats like wins and saves for pitchers. I particular enjoyed his multi-level analysis of the 1941 MVP battle between DiMaggio and Williams. Kenny's writing style can be a bit too much "look at me," but I tried not to let that overshadow the solid analysis and take on where baseball is headed.
P.S. I know he is a big advocate of "Bullpenning" as the next wave of pitching, but if he's been watching my beloved Mets, he knows that you actually need something resembling a bullpen to enact that strategy ;)
P.S. I know he is a big advocate of "Bullpenning" as the next wave of pitching, but if he's been watching my beloved Mets, he knows that you actually need something resembling a bullpen to enact that strategy ;)
December 29, 2017
Ahead of the Curve was an enjoyable book about the use of analytics in baseball. It challenges many of the assumptions that fans have about measuring success and valuing player performance. While I don't agree with the apparent assertion the book makes that some "traditional" statistics (i.e., wins, saves) are of no value, and that certain intangibles that can't be measured are of minimal importance (the discussion of Joe Dimaggio's exploits on the base paths during the 1939 World Series being Exhibit "a"), a fan disregards these new statistics at their peril. Overall, Ahead of the Curve was a good book and a fun read.
August 22, 2017
What well researched book!!! I will admit I know nothing about baseball besides the basics, however I really enjoyed the book. I am glad he put in glossary of the alphabet soup that is baseball stats so I can find out what he was talking about. Brian Kenny is a big believer in sabermetrics so throughout the book he points to all these non traditional stats that he believes is proof that baseball is played the wrong way. Basically, herd mentality and tradition are standing in the way of good baseball.
Won this book in A Goodreads Giveaway.
Won this book in A Goodreads Giveaway.
July 23, 2017
For some reason, based on a review, I thought this book might be interesting from a data scientist's point of view. Not so much. This is a baseball book, written in baseball lingo, about how most of baseball management was really slow in coming around to using simple scientific methods to win games. This book was not so much about what statistical methods, or other methods, beyond simple math, to make decisions.
September 26, 2017
A quick and entertaining read if you're a psychotic baseball obsessive, which I am.
Admittedly a lot of these books about the "baseball revolution" can run together a bit, but Kenny has a more amusing voice than most. And while he hits the classics (RBI, pitcher win-loss records), he's also got some fresh air (bullpenning, deeper dives into context-dependent stats).
Man, wish I'd gotten a math degree back in undergrad.
Admittedly a lot of these books about the "baseball revolution" can run together a bit, but Kenny has a more amusing voice than most. And while he hits the classics (RBI, pitcher win-loss records), he's also got some fresh air (bullpenning, deeper dives into context-dependent stats).
Man, wish I'd gotten a math degree back in undergrad.
March 17, 2018
I really do try to like this guy, and he does make some good points in this book (better use of bullpen for example). But turning baseball into a data-driven pursuit takes a lot of the tradition out of the game. I wonder if he'd like to be a baseball manager with college-boy GM's and assistant GM's micromanaging him? If you love constant pitching changes, the "shift", cheap home runs and strikeouts by the bushel, then this guy is for you.
October 28, 2018
This was an unexpected gem of a book. I love baseball and some of my love clings to tradition I hope never goes away like the starting pitcher, complete games and the closer. I hate the shift. But all of these things are irrelevant in the face of what’s true. Moneyball was just the beginning. Change happens slowly and inefficiently in culture and the bleeding edge is where the winning is. A compelling baseball book that traditionalists will loathe.
September 13, 2019
If you have never heard of Sabermetrics (the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity) or are a seasoned baseball statistical fanatic, this books serves everyone with delicious insight into the game, its myths and legends and hardcore truths. Kenny has a vision for what will come next and I found many good lessons for life and business between the covers. Computers are mashing big data and delivering new insight and strategies.
November 11, 2017
I tore through this one. Fascinating discussion of baseball sabermetrics and retrospective looks at past players. Kenny is funny, too, and this made me want to check him out on MLB Tonight. He must have felt vindicated to see how the bullpen management played out in the 2017 postseason.
Recommended for baseball lovers anywhere.
Recommended for baseball lovers anywhere.
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