The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War

by S.C.M. Paine

The Japanese experience of war from the late-nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century presents a stunning example of the meteoric rise and shattering fall of a great power. As Japan modernized and became the one non-European great power, its leaders concluded that an empire on the Asian mainland required the containment of Russia. Japan won the First Sino-Japanese War (1894–5) and the Russo-Japanese War (1904–5) but became overextended in the Second Sino-Japanese War (1931–45), which escalated, with profound consequences, into World War II. A combination of incomplete institution building, an increasingly lethal international environment, a skewed balance between civil and military authority, and a misunderstanding of geopolitics explains these divergent outcomes. This analytical survey examines themes including the development of Japanese institutions, diversity of opinion within the government, domestic politics, Japanese foreign policy and China's anti-Japanese responses. It is an essential guide for those interested in history, politics and international relations.

Genres: History, Japan, Nonfiction, Politics, War, Japanese History, Military History

218 pages, Paperback

Published March 6, 2017

About the author

Sarah Crosby Mallory Paine is an American historian who was the William S. Sims Professor of Strategy and Policy at the U.S. Naval War College from 2014 to 2025.

Reviews

[Mike · Rating 5 out of 5]

Hands down this is one of the best books I have read on the reasons for war between Imperial Japan and the United States during World War II. The book traces Japan as a nation from the Meiji Restoration or end of the Shogunate Era through the end of WWII. It concentrates on foreign policy and military achievements during this time period. It does not seek to blame the Japanese, nor does it exonerate them. It is a slim book that examines the facts. Of particular note:

the examination of the Russian relationship with Japan
relations between Japan and other World powers
expansion of Japan from an island empire to a continental empire
the capture of Korea and Manchuria
the decision to go to war with the US rather than Russia at the beginning of WWII.

If you think you know it all, read this book. The arugments are impressive and the author relates the Second Sino-Japanese War to world issues involving Russia and the rest of the World.

[Christopher · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent appraisal of Imperial Japanese grand strategy from 1868-1945. Written largely as a critique, the overall text comes across as a cautionary tale about a naval power doing everything right in its early context under the wordly Meiji Oligarchs and then letting a combination of victory disease and, inter-service rivalry, and lack of a cohesive strategic vision take over the succeeding generations.

By emphasizing the geopolitics of land power and naval power, Paine puts this work squarely in the international relations tradition. While I am always a fan of that approach as it is so often my own, here is where my own critique of this book can be found:

I believe Paine is correct that naval powers and land powers are massively different, and that since the 18th Century or so the advantage has been heavily with the ocean trekkers, but she over-emphasizes the difference of these things as due to ideological elements. The first global naval power was the British, an enterprise of piracy as much as anything else which eventually spiraled into a rapacious order whose record of violence and apatheid surpassed even Japan and Russia's on the global stage. The United States did not inherit this mantle out of integration with the British but by dismantling them when post-war British impotence was undeniable. Maritime powers are more reliable (for coastal nations) a path to take due to geographic, not ideological factors. And its arguable that the United States, as well as a possible future China, are simultaneous continental and naval powers.

This is a very minor and reasonable divergence though and in general I find this book to be an excellent summary of modern Japanese strategic history as well as the pitfalls of a flawed grand strategy. Present U.S. policymakers continuing to enable endless brushfire wars in Africa and the Middle East could take heed from the cautionary tale of Imperial Japan. The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere really was a precursor to neoconservatism in many ways.

[Kaleb · Rating 4 out of 5]

Book analyzes Japan's success and eventual decline, starting with the Meiji Restoration, ending with WW2. During the Meiji Restoration, China, the traditional great power in East Asia, was on the decline. In contrast, Japan, mainly through Westernizing their institutions, was able to grow its economy and military and was able to beat China in the first Sino-Japanese War. Fearful of Russia's growing influence, Japan soon fought Russia in the Russo-Japanese War, winning again. Both wars were pretty close; if Russia and China hadn't made some pretty stupid mistakes, they likely wouldve won. When the generation that lead Japan through the Meiji Restoration began to get older, their replacements were much more radical/fanatic. Eventually Japan got far too aggressive, started wars against China and the United States leading to WW2.

Some interesting grand strategy points made in this book. First, Japan's downfall was bc they tried to build a large land empire in Asia. Instead, they should've used their strength (being an island, surrounded on all sides by water) to develop their navy and pursue international trade as a model of development, not imperialism. Second, Japan's victories against China and Russia Ade them overconfident, and led to a risky and overconfident military taking over the military by the WW2 generation. Third, Japan's paranoia about Russia played a huge role in their foreign policy, and their decision to invade China. In fact, part of the reason Japan surrounded in WW2 wasn't just the atom bombs; they were worried that the Soviets would occupy part of Japan if they didn't surrender to the Americans.

Relatively short book for how much I learned. Strong recommend for anyone interested in East Asian history. 4.5


Quotes

"...Japan’s phenomenal success in its two wars of Russian containment set it up for failure in the mid-twentieth century. Each rested content on its achievements without inquiring into its shortcomings, let alone into the ambitions of its neighbors. The ancient Greeks long ago identified the fatal flaw of hubris that has destroyed so many gifted peoples."

"On 7–8 December 1941, Japan attacked not only Hawaii but also British and Dutch interests across the Pacific in the most operationally successful simultaneous attacks in human history. Victory, however, is always assessed at the strategic, not the operational, level."

"Although the leaders of the Meiji generation were brilliant, the institutions they built were incomplete. They were the virtuoso performers of their age, who failed to leave a completed score to guide others after their deaths."

[Daniel Waddell · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a great read walking through Japanese history from the Meiji Restoration through the end of the WW2. The author provides a great framework presenting how early successes for Japan lead to short sightedness and hubris in its later history leading to the end of the Japanese Empire. Definitely would recommend if you’re interested in this period of history.

[Samuel Boucké · Rating 5 out of 5]

very interesting

[Sivasothi N. · Rating 5 out of 5]

Prof Sarah Paine of the US Naval War College is an extraordinary scholar who provides wonderfully clear explanations about geopolitics, naval strategies, WW2 in East Asia, which she sets against a thesis for her students to recognise patterns of human behaviour against geographies and current relevance.

Happily, many of her lectures are available on Dwarkesh Patel’s YouTube channel which also provides illustrated shorts which are wonderful primers.

I started on her 2017 book, “The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War” and discover it’s just as clear as her lectures❤️ I got the Kindle and the print is available at Bishan and the LKCRL libraries of @nlbsingapore.

Anyone who reads about the Pacific War over decades appreciates how pieces of the puzzle are added with each work and with time. Understanding why and how Japan went to war changes. Prof Paine’s works are an excellent jumpstart to a holistic perspective which cuts through the fog of war.

Just always have a map handy💪🏽

I would nit hesitate it for anyone with an interest in the Pacific Theatre of WW2, I.e. the 15-year Second
Sino-Japanese War.

[Justin · Rating 5 out of 5]

I found about this book after watching a few of Dr. Paine’s talk on YouTube.

A lot of nonfiction tend to be dry, just facts after facts thrown at you but this book was not one of them. Dr. Paine did an exceptional job making this book concise, simple to read while still retaining depth through her analysis. The book was focused on Japan, China, Russia and how power dynamics, disputes, and infighting lead to Japan’s decision to invade during WWII. Very interesting strategies were discussed as well.

[Sean Thrift · Rating 5 out of 5]

Ah Sarah Paine, you’ve done it again. An excellent analysis on how Japan won its early wars and lost its later ones.

[Frank Paul · Rating 3 out of 5]

I bought this book because I saw several videos of Sarah Paine on YouTube. She is knowledgeable, relatable and pithy.

This book is heavy on the knowledge. It filled a lot of blank spaces in my knowledge of the war in the Pacific and the decades that lead up to it.

But the book is short on humanity and humor. There is very little discussion of individuals and no attempt to turn the major figures of this drama into characters.

I would have given this book 3 1/2 stars if that was an option. The analysis is excellent but as a reading experience the dry style and lack of any attempt to make the figures making these decisions memorable as human beings made reading this book less enjoyable than it was informative.

But look her up on YouTube. You'll learn a lot. (And yes I hate that I cam here to plug social media at thee expense of a worthy work of literature.)

[Roy Jackson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very specific, though quite good, study on the military policies of Imperial Japan

The Japanese Empire provides a solid overview for the rise and fall of Imperial Japan in terms of foreign policy, particularly in regard to military policies and choices. If one is seeking a thorough, or in depth history of the Empire, this is not the study to access.

Interestingly, this book does provide a succinct analysis of the primary factors driving the overall developments and consequences of Japan's military policies at a high level. It also places the direction of those policy choices into a useful theoretical framework of strategic, tactical, situational, and functional evaluations.

I found the study valuable for what it covers and it should serve well either as an overview to introduce a reader to the subject for a broader study of the Japanese Empire as a whole or for even more thorough studies into the for the history of Japanese foreign policy in the period from the Meiji Restoration through World War 2.

What it is best for, however, is as a case study in the practical factors that influenced the successes and/or failures of the leadership in Imperial Japan in pursuing its military policies.

[Matthias · Rating 3 out of 5]

A confession. My dissertation - which I'm still revising into something longer-form even as I've abandoned academe as a career - concerns an episode of geopolitics, but I can't for the life of me follow diplomatic or military history. History, I want to insist, is not just one damn thing after another, but diplomatic and military history are.

This book solves being tedious by being tendentious - a trade that, for me as a reader, was worth it. The grand narrative is pretty simple - the West and/or maritime powers are logical and benevolent, Japan won the First Sino-Japanese and Russo-Japanese Wars by being that, then lost the Fifteen Years' War by not, partially because of the merits of the Western/thallassocratic way and partially because, having a moat but lacking native iron and oil/coal, Japan was geographically more suited to it. How well does this narrative stand up? Well, I don't know enough to say. But when I encounter the next tendentious narrative on a similar subject, I'll have remembered enough to think about them both, rather than forgetting it all as with military/diplomatic histories with fewer preconceptions.

[Eric J. Hartsfield · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good short summary of Japanese strategic aims.

Mr. Paine provides a very good history of the strategic framework for Japan from the Meiji era through WW 2. What I found particularly interesting was how in the Meiji period there was a close matching of military goals with ultimate political objectives while there wasn't in later periods. The discussion about Japan playing the role that the British traditional played in European politics was very interesting in terms of Asian international relations. Have it 4 stars rather than 5 due to a lack of maps, but then the focus is on Grand Strategy.

[Ron Housley · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Japanese Empire — Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War

S. C. M. Paine, ©2017

a short Book Report by Ron Housley, 12 September 2025

At first glance, a book about the Japanese empire in the last century might appear unimportant, considering what’s happening in our world today. But Sally Paine’s thesis addresses the most critical issue of our time.

WHY THIS BOOK IS SO IMPORTANT
Russia’s march for territorial conquest, Iran’s relentless drive for world-wide Islamic Sharia law and China’s quest for economic and territorial dominance are all allowed to play out because Western thinkers have failed to identify the moral superiority of production and trade over seizing land and killing people as the path to sustain civilization.

Sally Paine shows us that it is the time-worn Continental World Order that embraces seizing land and killing people as its own claim to fame, as its established way of doing business.

But eventually, the industrial revolution gave birth to a Maritime World Order based on production and trade, and the world was shown a better way — that it was better for a country to be prosperous than to expand its empire by conquering land and killing people.

What we still have today is a clashing of these two “world orders.” Back in the 1980s when a U.S. 3% annual growth outpaced the paltry 2% growth of the Soviet Union, the Berlin Wall fell — the Continental World Order could not keep up. But Western intellectuals were never able to conceptualize what had happened, leaving most of the planet unenlightened — and morally unarmed against the next war of aggression.

It appears that today’s Continental Powers are still continuing to seize land and kill people.……while the feckless Maritime Powers timidly refuse to claim their well deserved moral high ground. They are never able to make the case that production and trade is the only proper way forward.

The Maritime Powers have had ample opportunity to show the world what the clash of paradigms is about, but instead they have latched onto the postmodern notion that no culture is better than any other — suggesting that killing people is morally equivalent to trading with them. As a result, the Continental Powers are once again on the rise.

Enter Sally Paine!


THE SINO-JAPANESE AND RUSSO-JAPANESE WARS
Sarah C.M. (aka Sally) Paine has apparently been a firestorm of intellectual power over the past decades, with degrees from Harvard and Columbia, with fluency in Russian, Japanese and Chinese, and from my own personal vantage point has been a genius in framing international conflicts in compelling and conceptually coherent terms.

Sad for me that she didn’t come onto my radar until 2025, late in the game for me but also in the twilight of her own active career as Professor at the U.S. Naval War College. Something tells me that my way of seeing the world is presently being remade as I look over some of Sally’s impressive work.

I never would have thought that a brief dive into the conflicts involving Japan and China before WW-I would become the “Aha!” moment to completely reorient my own thinking about how events play out on the world stage!

Hers is a book that clearly shows how shortcomings in strategic planning can never be overcome by genius in tactical or operational planning. It is always vital to identify the essential elements on the playing field, whether it be a military battlefield or a personal plan for the week ahead.

I was surprised to discover how naïve the Russians were in their conduct of the Russo-Japanese War. But it is never a surprise when shallow thinking leads to bad decisions; and Paine’s accounting of these two conflicts in the lead-up to World War I offer an insightful peek into just how incompetent world leaders have been — not unlike what we see playing out today with a whole new set of personalities at the helm of the world’s leading nations.


THE SECOND SINO-JAPANESE WAR (1931-1941)
I was unaware of the staggering extent of Japanese palace intrigue in the decades before World War II — assassinations galore, a push and tug between two factions: those striving for military control and those striving for civilian oversight. There were advances and setbacks for both sides, as the 1920s and 1930s unfolded.

Paine lays out the gruesome details, and explains the broader view as a struggle between those with a “messianic justification for a continental world order bent on territorial control” (p. 101) vs. those who saw the virtue in joining the “maritime powers abroad” — i.e., those who “knew that military power required a foundation of economic power.” But alas, the side favoring continental expansion dominated in 1930s Japan.

In Japan’s march toward Empire expansion, its underlying state religion, Shintōism, created a culture of spiritual devotion to the Emperor, strong notions of honor, and a widespread commitment to the belief that defeat meant “social death” — which in turn justified Japan’s notorious military brutality. A religious-like fervor among both the military and civilians brought a mindset emphasizing honorable death rather than surrendering, a mindset behind much of Japan’s ill-conceived military strategy.

Since Japan’s aggressive territorial expansionism was fueled by its radical Shintōism, America ultimately demanded a complete separation of church (Shintōism) and state. The terms of surrender after World War II insisted that Japan’s “political-Shintōism must end.” (Side Note: Political-Islam may have to come under similar stricture if the world is ever to be freed from ongoing Jihadist terrorism.)


THE GENERAL ASIAN WAR (1941-1945)
After untold hours with The History Channel and with a number of books on the War including Samuel Eliot Morrison’s “The Two Ocean War,” I was surprised that I had entirely missed the machinations among the unstable Japanese war cabinet, as it vacillated in its positions with Germany, Russia and China. There were some serious double crossings and some serious mis-readings of one another’s intentions, as alliances and non-aggression pacts were agreed to and then broken. All of this led to the outbreak of world war, but right up until the outbreak of war itself, it was not quite clear which parties were going to align together.

Japan signed a neutrality pact with Russia but Russia then wound up fighting with the Allies against Japan. Paine describes the “diplomatic acrobatics” which resulted in the Japanese Cabinet falling more than one time as world war drew closer. Astonishing to me is that Japanese military strategists were unaware that the Japanese publishers of Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” “had tactfully edited out its racist sections in their translation and, therefore, readers did not grasp that Hitler had also classified the Japanese as subhumans” (p. 149) and were also on his chopping block for extermination.

The way in which Japan stumbled itself into world war was a frightening instance of how the lack of strategic thinking can result in world-wide mayhem and mass-murder. (Side Note: We have a frighteningly similar absence of strategic thinking today, eighty five years later.)

I have learned about the Pacific battles, some in excruciating detail. But it wasn’t until Sally Paine’s over-view emphasizing the Japanese strategies that I began to understand why so many of these battles played out as they did.


IN THE END
It seems to me that a worldwide failure to grasp Paine’s conception of a Maritime World Order as morally and practically superior to the centuries old Continental World Order was at the root of the unfortunate strategic planning which resulted in World War II. That very same failure to grasp how a Maritime World Order functions and what it depends upon seems to be at the root of today’s escalating bad decisions in confronting the new aggressions by the emboldened Continental Powers.

I am hoping that Sally Paine might turn her intellectual prowess toward enlightening today’s crop of Maritime Power leaders on how they might embrace strategic decisions to set the course for prosperity, and to realize that opposite strategies only tempt the Continental Powers to continue running amok.

Thank you S.C.M. Paine for helping me to see what I should have seen all along.

[Morgan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Terrific insights, but ultimately better suited for military historians than for political scientists. The book is rife with key insights that help the reader understand the Japanese imperial period in new and better ways, but the writing is tedious, repetitive, and often plodding. One finds themselves hungry for the author’s knowledge and conclusions without having to suffer through his writing and storytelling. Overall, worth the read…but, just barely.

[AC · Rating 3 out of 5]

A fairly brief, slightly dry, somewhat quirky, but definitely informative account of Japanese War aims from 1868-1945.

I have not found too many good books on the topic (not looking for so-called military histories) — Toland’s struck me as a long apologetic (as I remember it) for Imperial Japan. Open to suggestions...

[Awais · Rating 4 out of 5]

Concise, readable, and enlightening on Japan's strategy throughout four wars and detailing the difference in leadership from the Meiji generation and its successors who's poor decision-making and strategy left the nation defeated by the end of World War II.


A top-tier book detailing the four wars that Japan underwent from the Meiji Restoration and the ultimate defeat to the Allies. Paine covers the Meiji generation with a great amount of sympathy for their ability to balance all the factors of their expansion. Compared to the later generation whose actions completely ignored Japan's precarious situation next to other great powers and the nation's ability when it comes to natural resources.
Reading the book really made me baffled at how poor the leadership in Japan was in terms of poor decision-making in the long term. Foolishness in thinking that expanded conquests would lead to Japanese self-sufficiency did the opposite as the expanded war front consumed more resources than could be produced. Alongside poor thinking on isolating other powers through their actions and not protecting western interests, as the Meiji generation had done. However, despite a large amount of praise given to the Meiji generation, Paine points to the fact that they were unable to build strong institutions. This left the door open for military authority to completely dominate the running of the country.

[Harvey · Rating 5 out of 5]

A great introduction to modern Asia that explains the current balance of power, disputes, underlying tension, and alliance networks.

A fascinating exploration of institutions and culture of Japan, how they've dramatically changed the world for the last century with honourable mentions to the Chinese and Russian equivalents.

This book has been a great starter to understanding the old Asia dynamic and how the industrial revolution shattered it and introduced a new system in its place that has determined the course of Asia for the last 150 years.

Now when I imagine a map of Asia things are more defined. I have a new appreciation for the grand strategy concept and the generation of new institutions.

A fascinating book with fantastic concepts.

[Jonah Lo · Rating 4 out of 5]

An extremely competent concise history of the geopolitics and security politics of the Japanese Empire. Excellent summaries of each major war. Sharp argument on a transition between inclusive grand maritime strategy and narrow army-led continental strategy, driven by the passing of a political generation, weak or contradictory institutions and several unfortunate contingencies. This ultimately undid the Empire.

Recommended as a basic textbook. However, would highly recommend layering the additional scholarship on Japanese Empire on top of this. Its lack of sustained in-text engagement with Japanese Empire history is a small but notable weakness.

[Douglas Kim · Rating 2 out of 5]

I rated this 2 because it is extremely Orientalist and racist, as if Japan just "made a few whoopsies" after the first Sino Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War. It is a complete revisionist history that completely glosses over all of Japan's insane war crimes and brutality, who's only real problem was overextending themselves by fighting China for dominance over them and challenging the United States for power.

If you're a military person and you just want to know the details of each of Japan's wars and troop movements and military strategy and such, I suppose this book will be useful for you.

[Robert · Rating 4 out of 5]

Overview of Japanese strategy 1895-1945

This is not a boom about World War 2 but rather a boom about the strategies and mis& strategies of Japan from 1895-1945 it very clearly lays out and contrasts the wars of Japan during this period and helps readers understand Japan's decline to militaristic state. It explains the many miscalculations made a!ong the way and provides perspective background for the study of World War 2 in Asia

[Bill Powers · Rating 5 out of 5]

I started following Dr. Paine on YouTube about a year ago and find her geopolitical assessments fascinating! This is the first of her books I have read, and I have learned so much. My knowledge of the events that led up to the Asian WWII theatre has changed immensely. The depth of detail regarding the Sino-Japanese wars, the Russo-Japanese wars, and the Asian WWII theatre is incredible!

I can't wait to read more of her works.

[Stanley Xue · Rating 3 out of 5]

Was a good book to pick up after reading about the Meiji Restoration. A bit of it was like this battle happened then this battle happened then this battle. But I guess the important big picture messages were still quite comprehensible. Surprisingly the first time reading about the First Sino-Japanese War.

[Pranav Anand · Rating 4 out of 5]

6. A great introduction to Japanese history from the Meiji restoration to the end of WW2. Would have preferred less on the military movements and more on the institutional changes which were discussed incredibly well when mentioned. I come out of this book a huge fan of SCM Paine and her clear thoughts.

[Charles Ward · Rating 5 out of 5]

Clear and comprehensive

Sarah Paine does it again: a sweeping history of imperial Japan from Meiji Restoration through end of WWII. This is the best presentation I’ve read yet on Hirohito’s role in governance. I would have enjoyed more on Japan’s Manchuria adventure, and a bit less on mainland Chinese battles.

[Jonas Peeters · Rating 5 out of 5]

The book delivered on its promises. This books mainly focusses on military strategy and diplomacy. Incredible books for those who want a deep understanding of Japanese military history from 1866 until 1945.

[Andy · Rating 5 out of 5]

A dense but fascinating quick read. The rigorous analytical methods displayed are very useful beyond geopolitics - underlying vs proximate causes, maritime vs continental powers, unified vs fragmented military services, etc.

[Sophie Taylor · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book charts the development of grand strategy throughout the history of both individual leaders and institution. While deeply insightful, the occasional break in timeline makes it harder to follow.

[May · Rating 3 out of 5]

Informational

There is no doubt Paine knows his stuff and it makes for an easy digestible read. It is very introductory to the period in history. Good for starting research.

[Douglas Kim · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good book if you want to catch a glimpse of how the military and fascism took over Japan prior to WWII.

[Sarah · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very helpful for me when learning about a new topic.