The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President

by Kyle Kondik

Since 1896, Ohio voters have failed to favor the next president only twice (in 1944 and 1960). Time after time, Ohio has found itself in the thick of the presidential race, and 2016 is shaping up to be no different. What about the Buckeye State makes it so special? In The Bellwether, Kyle Kondik, managing editor for the nonpartisan political forecasting newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, blends data-driven research and historical documentation to explain Ohio’s remarkable record as a predictor of presidential results and why the state is essential to the 2016 election and beyond.

Part history, part journalism, this entertaining and astute guide proposes that Ohio has been the key state in the Electoral College for more than a century and examines what the idea of the swing state has come to mean. In discussing the evidence, Kondik uses the state’s oft-mentioned status as a microcosm of the nation as a case study to trace the evolution of the American electorate, and identifies which places in Ohio have the most influence on the statewide result. Finally, he delves into the answer to the question voting Ohioans consider every four Will their state remain a bellwether, or is their ability to pick the president on its way out?

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Politics

192 pages, Kindle Edition

Published June 6, 2016

Reviews

[Ryan Splenda · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very thorough examination of one of the most important states in presidential politics. Kondik breaks down over 100+years of voting trends from both the statewide and county perspectives. There have been some interesting shifts over the years within Ohio, and there is evidence to suggest that there may be more in the upcoming years as well. A must read for any political junkie.

[Amanda (Tholke) Hollenkamp · Rating 4 out of 5]

well-researched and not as dry as it could have been. really hope they do an update for the 2016 election.

[Jeff · Rating 4 out of 5]

I had this on my list to read from around the time it came out. The idea behind the book is how Ohio had, up to the point of publication, largely tracked in its own vote with the popular vote for president.

Then Donald Trump won Ohio by 8 while losing the popular vote by 2.

This should not take away from what is a well-researched, interesting book about electoral history and the broader electoral lessons that can be taken from the information. It's an impressive read and one that I hope to add to my bookshelf anyway. Part of me wonders if there are lessons here for Clinton's team, or to future campaigns, that might be caught on a closer read.

[2rengirls1 · Rating 4 out of 5]

Read for a research paper predicting the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election in Ohio. Interesting read, honestly kept me awake for the book, which was saying something for this paper. The bits of humor definitely helped--I smirked at many of the things Kondik said, which was delightful.

[Arash Ghafouri · Rating 4 out of 5]

went for the winner again in 2016 BUT ...!

[Miriam Kahn · Rating 4 out of 5]

Reviewed for BookLoft and Columbus Dispatch