For a work of history, this book has simply too many obvious factual errors for the reader to be entirely comfortable with the judgements of its authors, such as wrongful dating - the most egregious of which being placing Operation Mincemeat in 1944 and associating it with the Normandy landings rather than in 1943 and the invasion of Sicily - and simple mistakes which lead one to question the value placed on the sources, such as citing Edwina Currie as a cabinet colleague of John Major, when, whatever her past relations with the prime minister, she was just a backbencher recording gossip. To be fair to Aldrich and Cormac, these errors do not invalidate their thesis that the story of the British civil intelligence agencies since their foundation in 1909 has been one of progressive official institutionalisation and a contemporaneous increasing centralisation under the political authority of the prime minister and the co-ordination of the Cabinet Office. However, what they do mean is that the historical accuracy of the evidence can be disputable, so that as a history of the intelligence services and their relationship with prime ministers this book is both incomplete and unreliable, while still serving as a useful work of analysis as to how over time, through evolving administrative systems, and from the differing personalities and aptitude for intelligence use of individual office holders, the current (as of 2015) mechanisms of prime ministerial interaction with the intelligence agencies and their product have come into being. Had the authors written a book focusing on this current system, explaining its development through reference to previous experiences and drawing analogies where applicable from the past, it may well have been more successful, but instead, interleaving past events with political analysis, Aldrich and Cormac have written a narrative history, which has simply not achieved its aims - the analysis, particularly regarding recent events is often good, but the history is often poor and decontextualised.
Part of the problem lies in the narrative methodology. Aldrich and Cormac have chosen to break up the period 1909 to 2015 into chapters dedicated to each prime minister in chronological order (Churchill and Wilson therefore get two chapters each), which while allowing examination of each prime minister's distinctive approach, is too artificial and arbitrary, and undervalues both continuities and how differing governments often faced the same challenges, relying often on the same personnel and organisational structures, while organisational changes were usually piecemeal and the result of intelligence problems that came about under previous governments. It might therefore have been more sensible to have approached the evidence thematically, analysing how the prime ministers as a collective dealt with, for example, war, internal subversion, terrorism, intelligence sharing, etc, showing change and continuity and the evolution of Number 10's handling of intelligence in relation to these issues. Such an approach, as well as being more effective, would also have avoided the unbalanced weighting of chapters by which short-tenured prime ministers such as Douglas-Home and Brown are given almost as many words as Churchill's wartime ministry and the consequential administrations of Thatcher and Blair, and which would also have allowed more detailed examination of the role played by intelligence in determining policies that contributed to the end of the Cold War and the so-called War on Terror.
The style of writing is quite breathless, with events coming one upon the other, often conveyed in an excitable yet knowing style, although not always chronologically, sequentially, or in a manner which properly reveals how individual intelligence operations and their central organisation impacted one upon another, or how prime ministers receiving ongoing intelligence on a wide-varied number of political issues at the same time, tried to form a coherent and holistic approach to interpreting the evidence received. For prime ministers, intelligence is just one part of the information deluge they receive daily, and often subsumed as they regularly are by domestic crises, not necessarily regarded as the most important, particularly when experience encourages questioning of its quality. It is the bread-and-butter problems of the economy, cost of living, and public services that are of primary concern, so that foreign and security issues, with which the secret services are concerned, have little impact electorally, as Churchill's defeat in 1945 and Blair's re-election in 2005 show, and why prime ministers remain focused primarily upon domestic matters. It is only at times of foreign crisis or terrorism that a prime minister can turn his or her attention fully towards intelligence, which is why they are so dependent upon high grade material that can inform their policy choices, but because this book is concerned only with those secret agencies and their intelligence as consumed by prime ministers, it can give an exaggerated impression of how much time prime ministers spend on such matters.
Similarly, such a focus on Number 10 obscures the important roles other ministers, particularly the Foreign, Home, and Defence Secretaries and their departments play in intelligence . There is no doubt that since the 1980s intelligence has become more centralised under the prime minister, but other ministers remain consumers, while the Home Secretary for MI5 and the Foreign Secretary for both MI6 and GCHQ retain parliamentary accountability and operational responsibility for these agencies, and are intimately involved in policy formation based upon the intelligence of which they are both consumers, and, in their ministerial roles, the providers. Too often, the image given is of a single channel of intelligence inexorably flowing towards Number Ten, when in fact much is operationally in the province of ministers who themselves act as political filters, helping to determine how intelligence is shaped and presented to the prime minister. As much as the UK political system has come to appear presidential in recent times, it remains one based upon Cabinet government, and even though a strong, determined prime minister can drive a single policy, as Chamberlain did with Appeasement in 1937-39 and Blair over Iraq, they still require Cabinet colleagues' support.
In the two greatest foreign policy failures of the postwar age, neither Eden over Suez nor Blair in Iraq acted alone, both were supported by senior ministers, Selwyn Lloyd at the Foreign Office in the former case, and Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, and Geoff Hoon at the MoD, in the latter, while Cabinet collective responsibility was maintained - just like with Appeasement, the Cabinet fully supported the policies of the prime minister and accepted his and senior colleagues' assessment of intelligence (the very few ministers who disagreed resigned). Unfortunately, as well as underestimating the important part played by ministers in developing intelligence-based policies and in carrying them out, particularly the Defence Secretary with regard to military decisions, there is also a lack of appreciation, except in the 2013 vote against military action in Syria, of the importance of Parliament in providing the context within which government uses intelligence. Appeasement did not happen in a vacuum, it was a policy overwhelmingly supported by MPs, while the Suez Group in the 1950s had a strong influence on foreign and colonial policy far beyond its numbers, and it was often this political context which set the terms by which prime ministers decided what intelligence to seek and how to deploy it.
Without the historical context, Aldrich and Cormac are prone to see prime ministerial intention as the driver of intelligence, whereas in reality intelligence is but a small part of how policy is formulated, and often is used/misused to support policies already decided upon for strategic and tactical reasons. The prime example of this is Iraq, where intelligence was used by the Blair government in support of a geopolitical strategy already formulated: the wholesale support of the Bush Administration's interventionist actions against perceived enemies in the Islamic world after 9/11. It is clear that the US Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, and his neoconservative advisers had very soon after the Al-Qaida attacks decided upon Iraq as a threat to be neutralised, even as evidence showed that Iraq had nothing to do with those attacks - indeed Al-Qaida was an enemy of the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussain, while elements within the US ally, Saudi Arabia, were active supporters of the terrorists - and that in late 2001, the UK government was originally horrified by the US focusing on Iraq, with the consequent fear that this would divert attention away from Al-Qaida and its Taliban allies in Afghanistan, which is exactly what happened. However, for still opaque reasons, during 2002, Tony Blair became convinced by the Bush Administration's decision to target Iraq, but as so-called regime change is illegal in UK law (although not US law: Bill Clinton in 1998 had made the removal of Saddam official US policy), he understood that the UK could not join with the US in military action unless authorised by the UN Security Council, and hence the decision to make WMD the casus belli and to utilise intelligence to justify military action and obtain a UN resolution authorising force. In pursuit of this, Blair authorised the publication of intelligence to support his policy. It was this that was novel and dangerous, since it tied the secret services into an already determined policy, undermining their independence, and led to a situation whereby intelligence rather than being a multi-sourced means by which policy could be developed became in effect a propaganda tool, with evidence published without caveats and with accompanying assertions that the original intelligence could not support because the policy demanded that they lead to the single conclusion that Iraq possessed and was capable of deploying WMD against its neighbours. The trouble was that this was not only untrue, but a proper evaluation of the intelligence should have in fact led to an assessment that the WMD that Iraq had possessed, but not used, at the time of the Gulf War in 1991, had been destroyed. Intelligence had become the handmaiden of politics.
In fact the Defence Intelligence Agency had evidence from a high ranking defector from Saddam's regime that Iraq's WMD had been destroyed by 1995, but that Saddam for political reasons had not wanted this to be known. There therefore was intelligence within the Ministry of Defence that completely contraverted the narrative of the Blair government in 2002-3, but this evidence as well as not being published was at no time presented to the JIC. It is this episode that reveals a major weakness of this book, its lack of interest in the DIA and ignorance of the role of the Chief of Defence Intelligence and his staff in intelligence gathering in the MOD. Between 1991 and 2002, WMD and their proliferation were primarily a Defence responsibility, and it was the DIA who employed the weapons inspectors who evaluated intelligence of WMD. So, in theory, the DIA had 'ownership' of WMD policy, and yet in 2002 the lead organisation with regard to Iraq and WMD was MI6, an organisation with no scientific specialists in the field. The question is therefore why was this the case? and the most likely answer is political, in that Blair preferred to work with MI6, with whose Chief he had developed a close relationship, because it was easier for him to control how the intelligence he received was framed, particularly in view of the also close working relationship his director of communications had with the chairman of the JIC, something he could not have had with the DIA in the MOD. It wasn't so much a case of the 'sexing up' of 'dodgy dossiers' that led to intelligence failure in Iraq, but that the Defence Intelligence Agency was kept firmly out of the decision-making loop, so that its more balanced technical appraisals, and, importantly, the high grade human intelligence it possessed that Saddam's WMD had been destroyed, could not undermine policy decisions already decided. This book was published before the damning Chilcott Enquiry reported, but both reveal how the Blair government misused intelligence and how overly informal decision-making processes led to an unnecessary and highly destabilising war unjustified by the totality of intelligence that should have been available to policy makers. Ultimately, this was a result of the politicisation of the intelligence agencies by a government that regarded all organs of government as political agents to be used by Blair's core group of advisers in Number 10 to carry out the government's political and media aims, and not as independent bodies providing validated evidence from which policy could be formulated. Once Blair brought the secret services into the realm of political advice and made their senior staff into political agents, it allowed him to use these agencies for political purposes, and to create a harmful governmental paradigm where public bodies, including the intelligence services, are validated not by the quality of their product and the work they do, but by how much what they do conforms to the policy objectives set by the prime minister and government, and where senior public servants, who should be independent, are co-opted into being agents of and spokesmen for government policies often poorly formulated for political advantage and excessively focused upon messaging and media influence. This is nothing less than a corruption of government.
The best chapter in this book is the conclusion, which provides a sure-footed analysis of the intelligence challenges faced today. However, the big question remains as to how useful intelligence has been in informing prime ministerial decision-making, especially when prime ministers - over Appeasement, Suez, and Iraq - are capable of ignoring intelligence unfavourable to their policies, and where so much of the intelligence is simply confusing. There is absolutely no doubt of the importance of intelligence in operational and tactical decision-making when in the hands of properly trained officers, but this book, perhaps contrary to authorial intention, shows how often intelligence is misused by prime ministers and even how the systems by which it is provided to them are open to political abuse - even in the case of Cameron, whom the authors praise for establishing the National Security Council as a body well-suited to forming decisions based upon intelligence, he wanted to launch an attack on Bashir Al-Assad's Syrian regime in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack when the intelligence at the least was unclear, and in fact may not have supported assertions that Assad was culpable. In such a situation, as late as 2013, whatever the conflicting intelligence, the decision still remained a political one based upon political and strategic decisions, and it was only parliamentary defeat - a political not intelligence matter - that prevented the government from perhaps making the same military blunders based upon faulty intelligence that Blair had made. If prime ministers are to continue to cherry pick intelligence to fit with their political determinations, then the system still needs reform, and then either the JIC needs to become a cut-out and the only body which provides verifiable multi-sourced intelligence to Number 10, or intelligence needs to be focused upon operations, with prime ministers and the Cabinet setting the strategic policies which the intelligence services can then inform. Intelligence officers must not act as policy advisers. There should be a clear firewall between intelligence gathering and analysis and policymaking, and the intelligence services should keep their distance from politics, providing an agreed intelligence assessment independent of political considerations upon which ministers acting collegiately can act. There is no reason why the heads of the secret services should be in personal contact with the prime minister. They should where possible keep their distance from policymakers and focus entirely upon the production of good intelligence which can then be evaluated by the Joint Intelligence Committee before presentment to the prime minister and Cabinet by the National Security Adviser. Such a mechanism would sterilise the intelligence services from political interference, while ensuring prime ministers could not improperly use their power to determine what intelligence is provided or what expert interpretation is placed upon it before, seeing the considered intelligence in the whole, they then make policy choices informed by intelligence but incorporating other advice, such as diplomatic and military. Such a system, unlike with Iraq, would, when things went wrong, allow for a determination of where errors were made, either in the intelligence itself, its analysis, or in the political decision-making. However, it is unlikely prime ministers will want to give up their personal links to the intelligence and security services, and so likely that political mishandling of intelligence will remain a risk, particularly when prime ministers seek to become involved in operational matters or act as their own analysts of intelligence. If there is a lesson to be learnt from the last century or so, it is that intelligence and politics simply do not mix.