Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade

by Bill Emmott

The former editor in chief of the Economist returns to the territory of his bestselling book The Sun Also Sets to lay out an entirely fresh analysis of the growing rivalry between China, India, and Japan and what it will mean for America, the global economy, and the twenty-first-century world. Though books such as The World Is Flat and China Shakes the World consider them only as individual actors, Emmott argues that these three political and economic giants are closely intertwined by their fierce competition for influence, markets, resources, and strategic advantage. R ivals explains and explores the ways in which this sometimes bitter rivalry will play out over the next decade—in business, global politics, military competition, and the environment—and reveals the efforts of the United States to manipulate and benefit from this rivalry. Identifying the biggest risks born of these struggles, R ivals also outlines the ways these risks can and should be managed by all of us.

Genres: Nonfiction, China, Politics, Japan, History, Economics, Business

352 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2008

Reviews

[Boudewijn · Rating 3 out of 5]

Former editor-in-chief of the Economist, Bill Emmott, explains how - in his view - the three major Asian states are engaging in power struggles that will shape the future of international relations, and not just in Asia.

It focusses on China, India and Japan. Japan, being the aging but still powerful economic powerhouse, India shedding the colonial past and starting to adapt to its new role in continental affairs and China, who will play the central role in the coming decades.

Starting of with an economic review of the three countries, and the recent economic rise of China and India, Bill Emmott then goes into the environmental issues, possible sources of conflict and finally into 9 recommendations to make sure Asia will not prove the continent where the next global war will erupt.

[Maria · Rating 3 out of 5]

Written in 2008, this is Emmott's evaluations of China, Japan and India and his predictions for their future. It was interesting to read this 8 years later especially in light of China's building of entire islands in the disputed sea, Japan's fear of nuclear power in the wake of Fukushima. His predictions are not completely wrong, but not as rosy or as dire as he assumed. And Ossama was found and killed in the tribal regions of Pakistan.

Why I started this book: This are my current stomping grounds and I'm always looking to learn more.

Why I finished it: Fascinating to judge short term predictions and then try to judge Emmott's long term predictions.

[Wilson · Rating 3 out of 5]

An illuminating book regarding the cultural nuances between Japan, China, and India on which I was only mildly informed. I am a bit disappointed that the author chose to exclude Australia at the beginning of this book and the author didn't mention Russia in any meaningful way at all, despite the landmass of Russia extending to the Pacific Ocean and a vast amount of its territory has more in common with its Asian neighbors than its European western hemisphere comrades.

It is nice to look back at the predictions the author made since 2008. He cannot be faulted for not being able to predict many events that have since come to pass, so I leave that out of my assessments, though I believe he didn't give enough credit to the resourcefulness of the Chinese economy and its government's resilience to effectively isolate the country from outside influence while still being able to dictate terms of international companies that wish to do business within its market.

It is disappointing that India hasn't grown as it should due to self-inflicted wounds through culture and its government, as well as the artificial strength afforded to Pakistan by the Chinese as a way to effectively dilute the focus of India away from China into a two-front area of concern.

Overall the author had salient points, but at time hardly concealed his euphoria of the recently-elected "anything but Bush" President Obama. I am interested to see if the author has since updated any of his points to this book after almost ten years to see if his perspective has changed much or not at all.

[Tripp · Rating 4 out of 5]

Much of the history of the 21st century will focus on Asia and Bill Emmott, former editor of the Economist, has written a primer for Westerners. In Rivals, he describes a continent with three big powers, China, India and Japan, that will be essential to the economy of the 21st century, and may well come to blows.

The addition of Japan is interesting itself as that country is nearly absent from most discussions of world power. Many commentators would be more likely to point to Russia, China and India as the Asian powers to watch. Emmott though is wise to include Japan, as it remains the second largest economy in the world, continues to lead in many areas of innovation and continues to move (albeit slowly) away from the pacifist approach to politics it took in the Cold War.

The first half of the book provides overviews of the current state of the three rivals. This is best suited to those less familiar with the region, although Emmott's writing and ideas will be appreciated by those already well aware of the situation. The rest of the book covers economic, environmental and political issues related to the rise of and potential conflict between these powers.

This is the sort of book that will whet the appetite to learn more about the region and is a great overview of the ground today.

[Chris · Rating 3 out of 5]

Massively informative and easily readable book on China, India and Japan, their economic and domestic situations and likely steps in the next few years and decades. Basically like reading a years worth of The Economist in one go (author was Editor in Chief of the Economist for 13 years). Bill Emmott should rightly replace Thomas Friedman and his simplistic "the World is Flat" - who's topics are the same but Emmott's depth of analysis and insight is leagues beyond Friedman and other similar popular economist/int'l affairs pundits.

[Ed · Rating 3 out of 5]

Typical Economist style analysis by a former editor. Interesting collection of insights and information on a fascinating subject, but the analysis is a little light and written with the know it all confidence that The Economist is famous for. The final conclusions are interesting however and one could only wish that the author had applied his knowledge, intelligence and insights into writing a more rigorous and analytical book and not another piece of journalism. It reads like the author just left an elite educational institute and knows it all. In fact he knows a lot but not it all...

[Aaron · Rating 4 out of 5]

Published in 2008, so I suppose I took a little too long in getting to it, and it’s more of a retrospect at this point. That said, the only thing that has significantly changed is the North Korean succession—rendering the discussion of what will happen when Kim Jong-il dies rather moot (Kim Jong-un isn’t even mentioned). But even that isn’t as big a change as the possibilities about which Emmott speculated—such as civil war, China making the DPRK a de facto province, or reunification with the ROK. Another notable change is the return and perseverance of Shinzō Abe as Japanese PM. But in terms of big picture issues—Korean reunification, the Taiwan issue, India-Pakistan relations, transparency and democracy in the PRC, or reform of global or regional IGOs to include rising Asian powers—not much has changed in the last decade.

[Brian Thorson · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good book but wish it had more current information.

[Daniel Mitchell · Rating 3 out of 5]

Dense. Lots of background for India in particular bit didn't seem to have the same depth for China or how conflict will shape future events.

[Tim · Rating 4 out of 5]

This seems a timely book, describing China and India as two growing economies that will impact climate change, environmental balance and resource use. These two emerging superpowers, the author proposes, will also challnge Western assumptions of power, wealth, and privilege. Adding a third strong Asian nation, Japan, provides the reader a comprehensive view of Asia for the next 30 years.

The author leads the reader through a very thorough exploration of how different each country is, with India's caste system still exerting power though an eroding legacy; Japan's aging population, one party democratic rule, but now with signs of change, as well as China's continuing different view of democracy, governance, and control over its very different people groups - Muslim populations to the West, and Tibetans to the South.

I didn't find it a particularly comforting read! Financial issues: money supplies, inflation, borrowing, currency tensions, etc, all seem to suggest struggles ahead as the world's nations adjust to what could be the Asian century. The author spent some time discussing President Bush's reaching out to India as a counterbalance to China a few years, and the questions of nuclear treaty obligations and weapons proliferation from North Korea and Pakistan in particular are unsettling. The discussion of the US strategic interests by the former president provided illumination to President Obama's recent trip to India, the G20 summit and to Japan.

Perhaps the most striking text in the book dealt with each country's history and how they have engaged each other. China and Japan in particular have a long history of conflict and how they write very different versions of history even today was very new, considering our familiarity with our own Western perspective of historical events in that part of the world.

[Dennis Murphy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India, and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade by Bill Emmott has been made a period piece by its age. Bill Emmott was Editor in Chief of the Economist, and is now off being an academic, consultant, professor, etc. The book is most useful in its beginning third, where Bill situates China, Japan, and India in our modern world, as 2008 is not so far as all that. The book becomes visibly dated in the middle, but this is still mostly filled with good information. Being a decade out of step is not entirely useless. The last third is about the interplay between the three in how they may unfold in the future, and then Emmott provides suggestions that are for a newly emergent Obama administration.

Emmott's very optimistic, and while I buy a lot of his premises, I'm more pessimistic than him.

The book itself has limited utility. This is perhaps one of the only comprehensive surveys out there on the three nations as a unit, so in that regard it remains highly useful. But if you're using it for policy advice or for guideposts for the future, well... the decade that he was trying to protect ended not too long ago. You'll be better off reaching for newer texts, articles, and policy papers.

That said, its a good read, organized well, and is competent in the quote mining necessary for works like these. The first four chapters or so will justify at least a check out of the library.

86/100

[Michael Griswold · Rating 4 out of 5]

In Rivals, Bill Emmott does a good job of balancing a hard hitting analysis of the problems facing the three major Asian powers China, India, and Japan while balancing out the Western fear that Asia will become an absolute power. Emmott's analysis states quite simply that yes Asia as a continent is rising and will grow more powerful over the coming decades to the potential detriment of Western leaders who do not step out and meet the challenges of a changing world order. Still Asia is not a unstoppable tiger who is without fault or problem and Emmott does a good job of outlining these problems from the pollution to a political system forced to alter its' means of rule to changing conditions, and various territorial disputes like Tibet and various parts India-China claim equally. Japans problems include a political climate of corruption, an ageing population, and an economy recovering from collapse. India meanwhile struggles with its' own democratic political system, economic reform, and pollution. Emmott attacks these problems with an tenacity yet does not get bogged down in technical terminology debates or present an often presented doomsday and gloom scenario.

[Nilesh Jasani · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent, reasonably unbiased book which is full of historic linkages and factual presentations of three of the most important nations. It is not easy to talk about three as different as Japan, India and China and it is not easy to even cover even one of them in the most rudimentary fashion in one book, but the author manages his task well while imparting decent insights to experts as well as total neophytes. This is not a book for those looking for theatrics or controversial views. More for those who want to gain some understanding of what today's Asian superpowers up to. Given how little is written about these three compared to relatively less relevant European nations in the global context, the book assumes even more importance.

[Kevin · Rating 5 out of 5]

A great book that draws together the recent histories of the three biggest players in Asia and describes the possible futures that Asia might experience as China, India, and Japan evolve together. Bill Emmott is the former editor and chief of the Economist, and it shows in the quality of observation, synthesis, and readability of this book. Got me started on a non-fiction kick that is yet to end.

[Phillip · Rating 3 out of 5]

It is no fault of the book that it is dated because it was published in 2008. However, the author is projecting what will happen in Asia during the next decade, which we are half through. It does provide lots of history, which is useful. But it is annoying to have his projections into our present.

[Eric · Rating 2 out of 5]

There were a few interesting insights here, but by and large I felt like virtually any well-done article in "Foreign Affairs" would have within the article all the information needed to understand the situation in totality, and would be more current than this book's treatment. Not wasted time, but not a fully exhaustive work, either.

[Chamath · Rating 2 out of 5]

Emmott, a former editor of the London Economist, predicted the waning of Japan's economic miracle (The Sun also sets)when most viewed Japan's superpower status as assured. In 'Rivals' he tackles the the rise of Asia and the rivalry between the big three: China, Japan and (also ran) India.

[David Owen · Rating 5 out of 5]

A great book about Asia's two emerging super-powers and the regional veteran who is making its own case for a strong future. The book offers some valuable insights into some of the historical roadblocks that threaten economic and political stability in the region.

[Weavre]

OST NON-FICTION ADULT STK 327.1 EMM

[Sanjay · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good reference on how asian economies and countries are shaping

[Doug · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good overview of the trends shaping these countries and what it means for the 21st century, nice to have all this information in one place, but no new or really groundbreaking insights.

[Stuart · Rating 2 out of 5]

Awkwardly written at time, but nice economic, historical, and political overview with an eye to future potential developments.

[Mark · Rating 2 out of 5]

The information in the book was excellent the author had some good thoughts. However it was too dry and boring and I had a hard time staying interested in it.

[Teddy · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting.

[Kunal Malhotra · Rating 2 out of 5]

Mostly, it felt like rehashing of the same content that one come across many blogs / editorials.

[Jason Mahoney · Rating 4 out of 5]

Like a book length Economist article, which I say as a great compliment.

[Augustine Kobayashi · Rating 1 out of 5]

Guess I just don't like books on economy