Not War, Not Peace?: Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism

by George Perkovich, Toby Dalton

The Mumbai blasts of 1993, the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001, Mumbai 26/11- cross-border terrorism has continued unabated. What can India do to motivate Pakistan to do more to prevent such attacks? In the nuclear times that we live in, where a military counter-attack could escalate to destruction beyond imagination, overt warfare is clearly not an option.

But since outright peacemaking seems similarly infeasible, what combination of coercive pressure and bargaining could lead to peace? The authors provide, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the violent and non-violent options available to India for compelling Pakistan to take concrete steps towards curbing terrorism originating in its homeland. They draw on extensive interviews with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, in service and retired, to explore the challenges involved in compellence and to show how non-violent coercion combined with clarity on the economic, social, and reputational costs of terrorism can better motivate Pakistan to pacify groups involved in cross-border terrorism.

Not War, Not Peace? goes beyond the much discussed theories of nuclear deterrence and counterterrorism strategy to explore a new approach to resolving old conflicts.

Genres: Nonfiction

310 pages, Hardcover

Published October 25, 2016

Reviews

[Vineeth Nair · Rating 5 out of 5]

Superb read. Explains the complete dynamics of responses and counter responses in any future terror attack perpetrated by Pak based terror groups. A great insight. A must read for all Pakistan watchers.

[Saheb Singh · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book tries to answer a clear question - how does one motivate Pakistan to prevent cross-border terrorism against India?
However, the answers, as the book lays out, are far less clear.

It demonstrates that every known option available to India - escalation along the land border, air strikes, covert operations, a rethink of its nuclear doctrine, etc. - all carry significant risks and costs that may not be offset by the benefits. In doing so, it holds a mirror to the strategic discourse in India, which at best is marked by satisfaction around India's conventional military superiority over Pakistan and at worst, reveals the perils of jingoism and non-nuanced debate. It advises caution and demonstrates the necessity of thinking through scenarios to their conclusions.

I daresay that a net effect of the book is that it gives the reader pause in rushing to celebrate recent tactical successes, because of the possible second order and strategic consequences.

However, it can also be said that the book merely lays out what the authors think will be the choices and the consequences of those choices, negative or positive. It is up to the policymaker to act in real life and in doing so, put the assumptions and conclusions of the book to test. The consequences may or may not be as dire as the book assumes. It would have benefited perhaps from the caveat that situations may play out in a different way that may be more to India's benefit.

All in all, this book is a necessary and comprehensive read.

[Khurram Shehzad · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very insightful analysis, although presenting Indian point of view only. Current Indian policies towards Pakistan is a combination of options given in this book, to include; Indian proactive strategy, so-called surgical strikes, nuclear triad, embarrassing Pakistan in world, economic squeeze through FATF grey list, covert operations in Karachi and Balochistan etc. Although the book kept on referring Mumbai attack 2008 as major landmark event, it would now be interesting to see how these recommendations appear to world after there is much talk of Mumbai 2008 as a false flag (reference 'Betrayal of India').

[Manraj Sohi · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent book. Well researched, balanced. Pointed. Looking for a specific answer. What can motivate Pak to leave terror? Authors takes us through options Cold Start, Air Raids, Covert Operations, Nuclear & Strategic Restraint. The prophecy is on page 275 last chapter. Explains deterrence, escalation control & compellance in simple terms. Pragmatic to the core. A must read for all students of IR esp South Asia.

[Shreemukh Mathew · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent read!
It opens up various perspectives about the issue.
Must read

[Aftab Kayani · Rating 4 out of 5]

Unbiased