Easternisation: War and Peace in the Asian Century

by Gideon Rachman

'A masterly account...the best survey of global affairs I have read for some time' Sunday TimesWITH A NEW PREFACE BY THE AUTHORThe West’s domination of world politics is coming to a close. The flow of wealth and power is turning from West to East and a new era of global instability has begun.Easternisation is the defining trend of our age – the growing wealth of Asian nations is transforming the international balance of power. This shift to the East is shaping the lives of people all over the world, the fate of nations and the great questions of war and peace. A troubled but rising China is now challenging America’s supremacy, and the ambitions of other Asian powers – including Japan, North Korea, India and Pakistan – have the potential to shake the whole world. Meanwhile the West is struggling with economic malaise and political populism, the Arab world is in turmoil and Russia longs to reclaim its status as a great power. We are at a turning point in but Easternisation has many decades to run. Gideon Rachman offers a road map to the turbulent process that will define the international politics of the twenty-first century.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, History, Economics, China, Asia, Business

264 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 4, 2016

Reviews

[Trish · Rating 5 out of 5]

Easternization turns out to be one very interesting book. I doubt Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent for London’s Financial Times, expected Donald Trump to win the American presidential election in November 2016, but he doesn’t miss a beat. This book, published at the end of 2016/beginning of 2017 adds a Preface which addresses the expected focus and personality of a Trump presidency and addresses Trump’s impact on American influence in the world. Rachman looks at the world through a reducing glass and illustrates how much of what has happened and will happen over the near term in world relations has been “baked in.”

There are various measures used to illustrate China’s rising strength, but Rachman believes the balance has already shifted east. American and European military influence is definitely contracting as China increases its spending and the centrality of the needs of its billion people in Asia is drawing other economies into its orbit, creating spheres of influence. However, the population in China, as a result of the one-child policy, is aging. China will be dealing with this legacy well into the next thirty years when it is expected India will become the world’s largest economy. India’s population in 2015 was 65 percent under the age of thirty.

For the most part, countries in Southeast Asia have been unable to resist the temptation of China’s development aid and trade. One exception has been Vietnam. Encroachments from the sea by China testing coastal boundaries has so alarmed Vietnam that they apparently asked the United States if they wanted to establish a base at their old wartime location in Cam Ranh Bay.

"For the Vietnamese…the offer made perfect sense. In its thousands of years of history, Vietnam has found only one war against the United States—but seventeen against the Chinese."

China decided in the 1990s that it would pivot to Africa, and since has become Africa’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade exceeding $200 billion in 2010. Apparently India, watching China make great gains in Africa, stepped up its own investment there, where it is historically positioned to be at home. Africa, like India, has a large proportion of its population under the age of thirty, and some development specialists suggest that the Indian Ocean will become the next growth center of trade and development, when the Pacific Rim economies and growth has slowed.

China recently began purchasing Russia’s gas reserves in a win-win for both countries, though Rachman believes the Russians suffered a very difficult negotiation. Many Chinese have been moving northward, legally and illegally, to set up business distribution networks in the less populated regions of eastern Russia. China watchers wonder if China will eventually move to take the east back from a too-large-to-govern Russia. There are also signs of cooperation, if not alliance: On July 4, 2017 Russia and China together signed an agreement to sanction North Korea after their successful ballistic missile launch, and to warn the U.S. and South Korea of the provocativeness of joint exercises. The closeness of any relationship between these two goliaths is a new feature American and the Europeans have not had to consider for many years.

Latin and South America, both in America’s backyard, in the new millennium suddenly discovered it had options, and in 2011 Brazil’s largest trading partner was…China…who imported twice as much soy, sugar, meat, iron, and copper as did the United States. Japan, watching China, stepped up its aid and investment as well, creating life-giving competition in Mexico and Colombia. The formerly ignored BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) may become a economic fulcrum to edge any power discrepancies into the Asian sphere.

One aspect of Obama’s pivot to Asia was intended to engage and contain China’s influence in Southeast Asia, though the pivot started to come undone almost as soon as it began. Events in the Middle East and his own intransigent government effectively kept Obama from erecting anything on the pillars of doctrine he might want to call his own. What we noticed instead was a gradual drawing away from involvement or intervention in the Middle East except in where others are willing to come in with us or in cases and places where surgical strikes might achieve an outcome without loss of life or treasure.

The West is still struggling to adapt to low growth and unemployment as a result of China’s low cost production, but Europe and America are still the desired destination of the world’s migrant peoples, make no mistake. China is able to make great investment of human resources into Africa’s infrastructure development because their own level of development is not so distant from what they find in Africa. The technologies used in both align.

Rachman makes clear that the West still holds the institutional advantage: many of the key institutions that allow smooth communication, banking, and trade were created by and situated in the West. Sanctions are suffocatingly effective on excluded countries, cutting them off from many life-giving international exchanges. Until changes are made to the centrality of these internationally-recognized bodies, and challenges are on the horizon, the West is still central to the aspirations of the world.

There is a huge amount of fascinating discussion and no-fat detail in this worthwhile read and Rachman has gotten a good deal of attention: check out the WSJ review, those of you with subscriptions, as well as the following links NPR interviewed Rachman, The Atlantic’s Uri Freidman interviewed Rachman, and the NYT published in April an article by Rachman about his premise. This is a marvelously readable ‘catch-up’ volume for those of us who took our eyes off the ball occasionally in the past ten years, but those who have been watching with undivided attention will be grateful for his overview and his discussion of where it is leading us. Highly recommended.

[Dave Schoettinger · Rating 4 out of 5]

More than 50 years ago political satirist Tom Lehrer wrote a song about a famous rocket scientist, the lyrics of which, in part, go: "'In German or English, I know how to count down. And I'm learning Chinese.' says Werner von Braun". These lyrics may be an early indication of the trend identified by Gideon Rachman in this book. If Mr. Rachman is correct, Professor von Braun may not be the only one to have sought greater familiarity with Asian languages.

Mr. Rachman notes that, beginning in the mid 15th century, Western Europeans began increasing their share of the world's economic activity and, as a result, over the next five centuries spread their languages, religions, and modes of economic activity around the globe. This process has been referred to as Westernization, and because of the last three decades of greatly expanding economic activity in Asia, Mr. Rachman believes that a similar process of Easternization is now taking place.

The average American is likely to respond to this insight by shrugging and pointing out that every block in his neighborhood has a Thai restaurant, a sushi bar, or a Chinese takeout, and that General Tso already outranks Colonel Sanders, so what more can happen? Mr. Rachman might respond with some much more articulate version of "you ain't seen nothin' yet".

While China gets most of the attention, India is not just another BRIC in the wall, and Japan and South Korea are still economic powers to be reckoned with. The center of global economic activity appears to be moving rapidly eastward and national power seems to often be a function of economics. Mr. Rachman notes several examples of international power relationships that are tilting away from the US. There are ways in which Americans and other Western nations can delay or alter these trends, but unfortunately for the MAGA crowd, building walls is not one of them.

During the 80s there were a number of books about how Japan was overtaking the US economically and the dire situation for Americans that would result. It would be easy to dismiss Mr. Rachman's effort as a similarly alarmist tome, but this book is a thoughtful effort noting what is taking place internationally and what the consequences might be.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

Easternization: Asia's Rise and America's Decline From Obama to Trump and Beyond, by Gideon Rachman, is an examination of the growing shift in geopolitical power from the traditional West (Europe, and above all, the United States) to the East. Rachman devotes much of the book to the examination of the rise of China, which has recently taken over as the world's largest economy (in GDP at PPP), is the world's largest exporter, and has the world's largest population. These factors have seen a significant increase in the reach of China as a world power. Even so, China is still eclipsed by the United States, which remains the world's largest military power (by spending, technological prowess, and reach), and the world's largest economy overall. The United States is everywhere, with a sophisticated alliance network, both bilaterally, and through NATO. They are also the main financier and backer of many important world institutions, such as the IMF, World Bank and so on. They are also home to the headquarters of the United Nations, and sit on the UN Security Council, with veto power. The United States has trade agreements and embassies with almost every nation in the world, and has military bases and ports of call dotting the globe.

China on the other hand, has not yet achieved the status of a true global power, although trends seem to confirm this is changing. China's economic clout continues to increase. China, fed up with its lack of voting weight from global financial institutions, has created its own - the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This has been a major point of contention for the United States, and even more so as many of its allies, including the UK and Germany, have eagerly signed on. China has opened up its first overseas military base in Africa - Djibouti specifically. It is also engaged in a massive diplomatic and economic push across the globe. Chinese investments and trade deals have been created in rapidly on every continent. From Ethiopia, (where China has financed a new metro system in Addis Ababa, as well as the construction of the new AU building), to Brazil (where China has signed commodities trading deals and invested heavily in Brazilian companies), to Central and South Asia (where China has constructed ports, roads, power and telecommunications infrastructure and much more) this push is truly global. And with Western backers who frequently put neoliberal conditions on loans and development funds - such as economic restructuring, and sweeping political changes - Chinese investment is looking increasingly more obtainable.

The book talks much of the shifting balance of power - with the US seemingly reducing its clout as China raises its own. Even so, Easternization talks about more than just the US and China. It looks at the shifting trends in geopolitics and economics, as many nations begin to turn to Asian economies and investment for development and infrastructure dollars. It shows that the corridors of power may be moving east, and a unipolar world controlled by the West - the norm since after the collapse of the USSR, may not be sustainable. It examines political trends in the US, China, South Asia (Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia etc.) Korea, Japan, India and Pakistan, Africa and Europe, as well as Russia, Hungary and so on.

Many nations are beginning to look to nations like China, Singapore and Japan for development models. These models often include greater government control over economic development, an increase in authoritarianism, and nationalism. Even states like the US and UK, the core of the western alliance system, seem to be moving in this direction. The increasing market share of other nations is concerning to Western politicians, who fear losing their privileged place in the world. Nations that require development funds and improved institutions, like Hungary, Poland, Turkey, Egypt, and even larger nations like Russia and India, appear to be utilizing aspects of the Asian growth model.

Rachman also notes that, as the US loses market share, its economic dominance begins to falter. This leads to a necessary push in the US to ensure its allies pay a greater share of the bill for its own global dominance. Other Western nations, like Germany, France, UK, Australia, Canada and so on, all rely on the US-led global system to function, and the US expects them to pay for it. Even so, many of these nations remain aloof. It is difficult to force allies to pay the bill for a system they may benefit from, but have little control over. Many of the smaller partners in the NATO/Western system may not enjoy the lack of freedom of choice they have over their own destinies. The US too, it seems, is increasingly frustrated by its own global alliance system. As the ability to choose other options increases for many nations, they will look less and less to the US for advice, political support, or economic and military support. Instead, they may be able to receive investment dollars from China, Japan, India or other growing powers looking to increase market share and their diplomatic reach.

Rachman goes into detail describing these events from the viewpoint of many nations around the world, and how the East is increasingly coming to play the pivotal role in international affairs. Events in the East will increasingly become major events in capitals from D.C. to London. The West may lose its monopoly of control over global events. This leads to theories of the Thucydides trap, where an established power and a rising power more times than not end up at war. Rachman notes the increasing friction between the United States and China, and the increasing ambivalence of partners on both sides. Whatever the case, Rachman has done an excellent job chronicling the shifting balance of power between the West and East. The book is fairly timely (barring modern stuff, like recent Trump news, political changes in Saudi Arabia and Brazil, and so on), and it discusses greater geopolitical trends from many nations perspectives. A very interesting read, and still worthwhile for geopolitical junkies -although I assume events within the next few years (2019 on) may negate some of the prognosis. Regardless, a worthy read.

[Alexander Lobov · Rating 3 out of 5]

The trends that Rachman is tackling here have already been widely discussed by everyone from reporters and newspaper columnists to think tankers and the policy establishment - as such, he is not contributing anything really new here.

While Rachman writes in fairly engaging prose that is easy to follow (he is clearly a journalist, not an academic), the broad themes he is tackling are very difficult to do justice to with a book this short. As a result, he stays on the surface of things rehashing widely reported trends and key events that most followers of world affairs (at the level of, say, a weekly Economist reader) would already be fairly familiar with.

I don't disagree with his overall point of view and I recommend this book for anyone looking for a tidy synopsis of global political trends - but don't expect to come away with a very deep understanding of any of the themes covered or a particularly new perspective.

[Maru Kun · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very interesting review article here.

[Alesa · Rating 5 out of 5]

"Easternization: Asia's Rise and America's Decline, from Obama to Trump and Beyond" was the actual title for the US version of this book, which I just finished. Wow. It's is a really provocative book about how China has already surpassed the US in terms of real economic and political global power.

Published in 2016, the book is already out of date, because it doesn't discuss Trump's election and subsequent actions. However, in the new preface, the author quotes a senior EU official discussing Trump ditching the TTP:

"When the Brits were the world's dominant economy, they were also the main promoters of free trade. And then when America became the world's dominant economy, they became the main promoters of free trade. And now America is losing its faith in globalization and China is becoming the main advocate of free trade. You can feel the wheels of history turning." The book is filled with marvelous summaries like this.

Here's another great quote from the preface: "Ever since 1945, all American presidents have shared a commitment to an international order built around two central pillars. The first is the promotion of international trade. The second is a global security system based on US-led alliances. Trump threatens to pull down both pillars."

Here's his take on the Saudis and oil: "The Saudis have begun to do much more to cultivate the largest customer for their oil -- which is now China, not the US. By 2014, more than two-thirds of Saudi oil was being sold to Asian markets, with China the largest single customer, and just 8 percent was going to the US. The US ships that guard the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, ensuring that Saudi oil can continue to reach its markets, are essentially safeguarding China's energy needs."

Rachman says that Obama was widely viewed as weak -- in Moscow, Beijing, Singapore, Warsaw, Toky0 and even in Paris. This is because he was reluctant to use military power, and to enforce his own red lines. "Given that the world's security system is constructed around American alliances, red lines, and security guarantees, this is a potentially dangerous idea. It risks encouraging powers that dislike a US-dominated world -- in particular China and Russia -- to see if they can get away with challenging American power."

He views Europe as a has-been. "By 2009, when an economic crisis erupted in Europe, the age of European imperialisms Asia and elsewhere had been over for roughly half a century... Europe's desire to exist as an island of prosperity and political decency would gradually be in jeopardy due to a loss of political power... Europe is increasingly vulnerable to political, social, and economic trends in the rest of the world, which it cannot control and which pose direct and indirect threats to European stability, prosperity, and even peace."

He ends with a bit of hope for the West, however, in that our systems and law are much admired around the world. He does not see them being replaced by Asian equivalents any time in the near future -- unless the West abdicates them. Western courts are still considered the most reliable in the world. So although much of the economic and political might may shift, Asia will probably still want to educate its youth in Western universities, for instance.

Overall, this is a fascinating book that will change your worldview.

[Prerna Vijayeni · Rating 4 out of 5]

A well substantiated account of changing power dynamics with China as the new centre of global influence, the book is a lucid and engaging read. The term 'Media res' best describes the study of International Relations and Rachman has done justice to his layman readership by illuminating definite starting lines from the world history to give a coherent picture of present day world. Rich in perspective, the deep sense of history and good faith in diplomacy balance the academic and journalistic voices.

[Sookie · Rating 3 out of 5]

Rachman summarizes rise of Chinese investment and its global endeavors for the past decade. Easternisation explains all this in broad strokes without delving too deep into changing geopolitics and political shifts in south Asian countries.

[Naomi Gammon · Rating 4 out of 5]

Extremely readable account of international relations. Started off reading it chapter by chapter, but the clarity of writing and flow of the book really comes to light when you read several in one go. It was interesting to hear more about Japan, Korea, Germany, Turkey and Hungary, which I didn’t really cover at uni, and the expansion of institutional considerations to include the internet was interesting. Also insightful on US foreign policy in the Obama era - I feel like this was glossed over in my degree where most discussion centred on the Bush and Trump administrations. The title fortunately suggests more danger of simplification and determinism than was found in the book, with the only hints of climate determinism confined to the conclusion where the role of climate change as a space for cooperation/conflict was briefly discussed. Arguably the assertion that the greatest challenge is the South China Sea deserves revisiting in the current context of war in Ukraine, but I guess not many people saw that coming to such an extent in 2016!!

[George · Rating 3 out of 5]

Gideon Rachman spends 300-odd pages beating on the same dead horse: Easternization is happening, deal with it. He goes on a worldwide tour telling readers how and why the world’s pivot is moving towards Asia, China in particular, often repeating the same points over and over again. There’s not a lot new to learn by reading Mr. Rachman’s book if one is already modestly versed in international relations and economics, albeit you will learn that Mr. Rachman is extremely well traveled and apparently all the world’s power players have been interviewed by him.

Overall, I believe he is overly pessimistic on the future of the West and entirely too unconcerned about the costs of China’s methods leading to its growth. I’ll still read his FT columns, but I’ll need to be strongly convinced to read another one of his books.

[Lothario · Rating 5 out of 5]

I liked the content of this book as the usual argument here is that China is on the rise and America is on the decline. This looks like the geopolitical trajectory however Gideon examines the other countries in Asia and further afield. The books does make predictions with a pinch of salt as he acknowledges history doesn't always follow the most likely road. The books itself is a very quick read, I would recommend to readers who don't have much understanding of geopolitics and those who have read more into this area. The authors first hand accounts of meeting world leaders and extensive travel round the world have made this a thoroughly enjoyable read

[TROY CROWHURST · Rating 4 out of 5]

Note the implicit danger in the title.
I thought this a worthwhile read in our politically complex and troubled times, though also note that since it was published in 2017 - despite some extra passages added at the start - it does not cover the Trump presidential era.
Nonetheless, even three or so years on, I found it an informative read, opening our eyes to what might well be the 'Asian Century'. And what those dangers might be.
The author rightly observes, econonic power is the key to political, technological and military power in turn. And China's economic star is on the rise.

Hovering over his whole analysis is the rather haunting observation - the 'Thucydides Trap' - that when competing empires clash, one on the rise, one in decline, there tend to be instances of direct conflict...
China has justifiably viewed itself as a great and ancient civilisation. It may well have an axe to grind with the British over colonial expansion and more recently the Japanese over war crimes. But without question, the Chinese leadership under President Xi, clearly less amicable and accomodating than the previous regime, has exacerbated any nationalistic tendancies, setting itself up more as a direct adversary to the West. And the latter's main player, the USA, a nation barely two centuries in the making, is consequently viewed as an 'upstart' disrupting the rightful and natural world order of things.
More aggressive behaviour is generally focused near its homeland with
political scrapping evident in disputed territories off the Chinese coast, Taiwan and more in our view back home, Hong Kong. But economically, Chinese have their fingers in pies in all corners of the globe.
How the West addresses Chinese self promotion and expansionism is a key theme of Rachman's thesis.

Rachman notes that we in Europe have taken for granted America's role as 'global policeman'. Indeed, in light of sometimes contentious militaristic ventures of its own, the term 'bully' has been deemed more accurate.We are asked if we still support our notions that arose after the Cold War. He posits the thought: 'Lose the bully, lose the policeman', implying we could accept the reality of both descriptions. Or consider the world without either.

For all his flaws and misdemeanors, I think our author would at least credit Trump with having brought to our attention the Chinese threat, even though to many his presdency has largely discredited the West's democratic values and made life easier for those asserting the virtues of more authoritarian regimes throughout the world, the likes of Xi and Putin..
In any event, Trump clearly reverted to his brand of populist and nationalistic policies, in a sense renouncing 'global' responsiblilities.
Rachman makes a persuasive case for the frustrations of the US prior to his election - indeed in part, a forebodng of Trumpism - in signalling the demise of Europe as a global player. As a centre for financial institutions and regulation it still holds sway. Nuclear capabilities in France and Britain are retained. But as a partner and support for the U.S. as a military force, French and British naval power is negligable to that of latter years. More significant still perhaps, expressions of annoyance have arisen from Washington on Germany's continued refusal to exercise any military clout whatsoever.
With Europe's disputes over immigration and its own divisive political wranglings, Americans might be encouraged to focus their minds, too, on more domestic issues.
We have seen how this turned out.
-----------------------

Japan
Obama v
Future v strongman leaders
India

Though generalised the assesments are thought-provoking and lucid.

Compelling for anyone with interest in World Affairs.

(To be continued and revised)

[Kyle Muntz · Rating 4 out of 5]

I wouldn't say I enjoyed this book exactly. But it gives a very substantial look at US China relations, as well as the rising power of Eastern nations in general. I don't generally read about international politics, so as someone with a liberal background (where we assume, I suppose, that peace between large nations just sort of keeps itself) the importance of border disputes, shows of strength, and hyper-attention to small shifts in military power sort of shocked me. It's a very different picture of how world power operates than I generally hold in my head: one where nations really do have guns pointed at each other all the time, even if they aren't shooting them. This isn't really my preferred reading material, but it was good to get myself up to date. Though I do plan to cross-check it with another book on the region eventually.

[The Contented · Rating 3 out of 5]

So this is a book about the rise of China (and other Eastern economies) and how that should be managed. The West will still has a lot of soft power as people like its institutions. The rule of law matters. The West is still in control of the global financial system, as SWIFT payment trends demonstrate. India and Japan are worried about the rise of China. Europe won't pay for its share of NATO because Europe's economies have been troubled. Ok, my summary is pretty rubbish. An ok read.

Concluded that if it's the institutions that make the West then Trump poses the gravest danger to the Western world as we know it.

My total library fine across the three books borrowed should not be more than £3.30. Also, I returned the book on leadership by Blair's spin guy - why I am blanking on names? Jetlag? - without reading it.

[Lai Yunn · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very journalistic take on the subject; structured compilation of 21st century world affairs of easternisation (global 'power' shifting to the east) signs and evidence, written in generally layman language, easy to read. If you have been following world news rather closely, no great revelation but a good recap and detailing. Minimal (except few pages of conclusion) personal analysis or insights, which i feel is what's lacking. Howevee overall an enjoyable and quick read.

[Venky · Rating 3 out of 5]

The widely acclaimed author of "Zero-Sum World" has authored yet another thought provoking and essential work in the form of "Easternization". Mainly dealing with the seminal shift of both economic and political power from the hitherto formidable West to the unmistakably rising East, Easternization provides the reader an enlightening perspective into the gradual but invariable shift of the Centre of Gravity taking place in our globalized world, that has positioned the Eastern Economies as not mere pretenders to the throne occupied by the Western nations, but as genuine contenders to trigger a very regime shift.

Whether it be China's audacious posturing on the South China Sea, or India's increasing emergence as an economic behemoth; or a rejuvenated status of importance charactersing the African continent, it is obvious that the West's hold over the world order is subtly but surely slipping. American hegemony which till now has almost been taken for granted by both its allies and adversaries is seeing significant cracks. The imperialism which once made the United Kingdom colonise almost a quarter or more of humanity is now a whimsical and tepid past. Imperialism exists only in an anachronistic form of a monarchy in the once powerful al conquering Kingdom. The European Union if not derelict is already riven with currency crisis and financial emergencies following the devastating recession of 2008-09.

Rachman also highlights the tilt of economic and political might towards the East by highlighting paradigm shifts in the attitudes of nations that were once considered to be the unshakeable allies of the West. Turkey, once an unabashed imitator of Western culture and traditions has now under the rule of an immensely devout Erdogan commenced looking inwards and has fast been assimilating the tenets of Islam. Banning the serving of alcohol within a few designated meters from the vicinity of a mosque (in a land that teems with mosques) is just one example of a radical perception shift. Similarly Hungary under the stewardship of the aggressive Viktor Orban is also adopting an attitude of inclusivity shutting out the West to the greatest extent possible.

Gideon Rachman also makes a fervent plea for a stable balance in the East-West relations with a view to preventing an intentional/accidental catastrophe in the form of a Great War. With most of the nations occupying both the West and the East boasting a dangerous arsenal of nuclear weapons, an unintended ruffling of feathers might lead to an incendiary situation. The last thing that mankind needs is an existence on tenterhooks. Rachman however feels that the process of Easternization would take time to attain completeness because of the presence of influential institutions such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund or even SWIFT and ICANN in the Western Geographies. These institutions cater to the needs of the entire globe and hence it would take an enormous effort for parallel like institutions to be established in the East, although the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiative by Beijing may be viewed as a comparable institutional beginning.

To conclude, Easternization provides an invaluable perspective on the demographic shift in power that is now taking place from the once powerful West towards a surging East. We are on the cusp of a historic and exciting time of change!

[Nick · Rating 3 out of 5]

Rachman offers well-informed commentary on the dynamics of the security and economic dynamics of China's rise. However, covering each region in East Asia in single chapters provides little room for deeper analysis as Rachman reviews recent events that many readers will already be very familiar with. Rachman does an excellent job choosing events and quoting officials and academics to illustrate the pattern of "Easternization," but he does not give himself the time to provide more than a cursory review of events and perspectives. By giving himself little space, relying on personal stories, and moving through his narrative quickly he also risks leaving out key events and viewpoints that would make the narrative more complete. This is disappointing as Rachman's commentary in FT is consistently some of the best regarding Asia, and this book is a missed opportunity to more deeply explore some of the themes of the book and previous writings.

Although this book is relatively short, it ends up seeming long due to its main point being that the US and Europe should get comfortable with the idea that China and India, and to a lesser degree Russia, will play increasingly important roles in international politics. Unfortunately, he does not offer many suggestions or review the various viewpoints of how leaders in the West should do so. He covers the mistakes of the Obama Administration, but could have been clearer about the follies of the assumptions underlying their approach and what alternate paths were available. Of course, the harder problem, which should have been mentioned, is convincing US politicians and policymakers to take the hard, sensible approach rather than the ignorant, east one.

Overall, this book would be best for readers who do not follow Asian political events closely and are looking for a quick primer to catch up. Readers who are interested in learning more about some of the themes in this book could then look to other recent books and articles about the region, many by the individuals that Rachman cites.

[Try Lee · Rating 4 out of 5]

Easternization is the defining trend of our age — the growing wealth of Asian nations is transforming the international balance of power. This shift to the East is shaping the lives of people all over the world, the fate of nations, and the great questions of war and peace.

A troubled but rising China is now challenging America’s supremacy, and the ambitions of other Asian powers — including Japan, North Korea, India, and Pakistan — have the potential to shake the whole world. Meanwhile the West is struggling with economic malaise and political populism, the Arab world is in turmoil, and Russia longs to reclaim its status as a great power.

As it becomes clear that the West’s historic power and influence is receding, Gideon Rachman offers a road map to the turbulent process that will define the international politics of the twenty-first century.

[Hunter Marston · Rating 3 out of 5]

Rachman's book is thorough, insightful, and sweeping in its analysis. But the prognosis gets lost in the weeds as various chapters cover different regions of the globe. Ultimately, his notion of "easternization" becomes so diffuse that it carries little weight. In the end, he offers a vague vision of a multipolar world order rather than one of clear "easternized" trends.

[Stephen Rowland · Rating 4 out of 5]

Handy, succinct, and objective.

[Philip Tha- B. Toole · Rating 3 out of 5]

As of this writing the author's added preface, dated January 26, 2017, is quite extensive and from other reviews I've read it certainly needed to be to make up for the actual Trump election. Yet, and here is my only substantive quibble with this somewhat typical subject matter, within the first 3 paragraphs of this preface the author makes an incredibly faulty presumption about the current US president: That he is following the same course with the same set of personal or political beliefs as all of his establishment predecessors.

Trump really isn't, and the author I feel has misunderstood the real meaning behind the sloganeering of MAGA : Make America Great Again. In Trump parlance, and that of his most fervent supporters, this is code for a new isolationism. A geopolitical dog whistle, if you will. This may be difficult for Europeans to comprehend but there is a deep strain in American society, life and culture that wants to return to some sheltered, idealized past. The US is not a traditional nation-state, as most of those countries are, it is itself an empire w/in its own carved-out borders and many Americans don't share the sense of loss of empire that some in Europe have been whittled down to.

To be sure, Trump wants to cut the trade imbalance (which is not Only with China), but that is simply looking at the unsustainability of the massive negative numbers the US is facing. Another credible (taken w/ a dose of salt naturally) example of Trump's pivot away from the course most powers have always taken of jealously guarding power is his desire to reduce US troop levels worldwide. In Syria, S. Korea....now, the military establishment likely won't allow this, but it won't be for a lack of trying on his part. Is this wise? I frankly don't know, but I fear the author misconstrues his ditching of things like the Paris climate accords and the TPP as some grand strategy of rejuvenation. It's not, not in the way the Washington establishment might hope for, or others, but again, Trump and his most mirrored ideologues want restful oblivion on their fairways and private airport runways.

No, many things will likely continue on as they have and even head in a direction roughly paralleling trends put forth by the author in this book (which does contain many areas of interest & prognostication), but the notion that Donald Trump--a kind of PT Barnum for our Age--is, at his core, who the author thinks he is in his preface....is wildly off the mark.

[Ben Newman-Sanders · Rating 4 out of 5]

Slightly different to what I was expecting, which was a detailed account and analysis of China’s rise and America’s decline from the perspective of one of my favourite journalists. In the end I enjoyed Rachman’s take even more than I was expecting. He dives into the global implications of the ‘Easternisation’ of the world, looking at how the West is losing the attention and allegiance of countries from Africa, Asia and even the Americas and Europe who are looking towards Asian countries as an alternative. It is these global implications which makes the process of ‘Easternisation’ so interesting, as the West does not just face losing out on the many advantages it has enjoyed in Asia and the Pacific by being the predominant power there. It is the way in which countries across the world are turning towards Asia for economic and diplomatic support, instead of towards Europe and America, which makes this story so interesting.

This is not just a story of China vs America, but also underlines how the EU is slipping into irrelevance as am international force and how the democratic ideals of the West are being shunned by illiberal regimes, who are choosing to turn to Asian investors when they look to develop their infrastructure or exploit their natural resources, which in turn results in inflows of money from Asian countries. The result is an ever-growing global Asian presence and increasing pressure on the West to maintain its economic and political relevance in these regions

The story for America and Europe is not hopeless. They both still have well-respected institutions and a better standard of living than most countries. America is still the richest and most powerful country in the world. However, a suspicion that the West is working to manipulate the global system for its own self-interest is growing in regions all over the world, with Russia and the Middle East being the most prominent critics of Western ‘ideals’ and biased Western institutions.

If the West would like to retain relevance as an international force, it will have to convince the rest of the world that it is there as a force for peace, rule of law and international security, and not that its influence exists solely to make its own citizens richer at the expense of the rest.

[Madikeri Abu · Rating 3 out of 5]

Easternization: Asia's Rise and America's Decline From Obama to Trump and Beyond, a 300+ pages book published in 2016 by Gideon Rachman, a foreign affairs correspondent at Financial Times is a well researched, comprehensive, insightful, thought provoking and authoritatively narrated book which analyses the shifting of balance of power both economic and political from west to east or more precisely from the USA of to China.

This book was written before Donald Trump was elected as president of the US and before the BREXIT and in the short span of just 5 years and especially after onset of pandemic Covid-19, one can surely deduce the expedited decline of the west and in the meantime how China has enormously enhanced it's clout in the South East Asia area, dominating the shipping lanes in the South China Sea and is expanding it's influence across Indo-Pacific region. The recently signing of RCEP free trade pact among 10 ASEAN Countries and China testifies the reach of it's economic and political power in the whole of that region.

The only question now is whether the USA and China can avoid the Thucydides trap, where the reigning lone superpower goes to war to thwart the ambition of an emerging power. It has happened in 12 out of 16 cases in the last 500 years and what will be the new political and economic world would be like after the aftermath of such an eventuality.

This is an informative read and a must read for those who are interested in geopolitics, world economy, current world affairs and how the power game is shifting and how the world has changed in a span of just a decade and how will it look like a decade hence.

3.5 Stars.

Favorite Quote:

"When the Brits were the world's dominant economy, they were also the main promoters of free trade. And then when America became the world's dominant economy, they became the main promoters of free trade. And now America is losing its faith in globalization and China is becoming the main advocate of free trade. You can feel the wheels of history turning."

[Satya Chari · Rating 5 out of 5]

Insightful : Expertly dealt with : Authoritatively narrated

Chinese leaders and intellectuals are intensely conscious of the idea that they are now righting historic wrongs; humiliation inflicted on China by Britain and other imperial powers, from the Opium War of 1839–42, to the burning of the Summer Palace.

Three related ideas were particularly important: a sense of aggrieved nationalism; increasing confidence in China’s strength relative to the United States; and a deep fear about China’s own domestic political stability and the potentially subversive role of the West.

The Communist Party’s mission is to right the historic wrongs inflicted on China and to restore the nation to its rightful position in world affairs

During Japanese invasion and occupation of China from 1937–45, some 15 million Chinese people died. Even larger numbers of people lost their lives during the famines and state-sponsored killings of Mao’s Great Leap Forward from 1958–62; Chinese sensitivity to life against State Objectives are unique to China

It was Deng who gave his colleagues some famous advice on how a rising China should deal with the outside world. Deng’s dictum – ‘Coolly observe, calmly deal with things, hold your position, hide your capacities, bide your time, accomplish things where possible’ – often abbreviated in Western foreign-policy circles as ‘hide and bide’; packaged as China’s peaceful rise, a win-win, which was enthusiastically welcomed by the “credit and consumption” addicted West!

Nixon | Kissinger strategy of containing USSR in Asia by cultivating Pakistan and China, bypassing non-aligned India then under phobia of the west; looked bold | ingenious while it lasted, only to unravel over time, left at the door-step of the World at large to deal with; just another mess out of a series of misadventures by the exceptionalist-New World, insensitive to regions | people | history | culture | traditions; their dreams and ways of life!

[Rāhul · Rating 3 out of 5]

Gideon Rachman is a Financial Times correspondent who has reported extensively from China and much of Asia. Here, he tackles the central issue of our time-the economic and military rise of China and the consequent relative decline of the United States. To the informed reader however, the book is largely just a collection of stories and themes that have hogged the media limelight over the last decade. Despite the title, there is no deep analysis of how "easternization" would ideologically be different from westernization. Will easternization come with a less messianic desire by the new eastern hegemon to spread its values abroad? Today's China, to a large extent, has been westernized, from the aspirations of its youth to the communist and resource-colonialist (in Africa) ideologies driving its leadership, with Confucianism being at best a thin veneer. Even if "easternization" is defined just a shift in economic and military power to a westernized Asia, this Asian ascendance derives mostly from population size and not technological dominance- a far cry from the European ascendance over the last 400 years. America's geographical position also affords it the ability to withdraw to an offshore balancing strategy while taking advantage of the the various historical rivalries within Asia.

The last chapter, dealing with the west's institutional advantages of the rule of law and interlocking international institutions that prop up its power, was well done. Just like a web of military alliances is at once a strength (legitimacy) and weakness (over-extension at peripheries) for America, similarly, overuse of leverage at the World Bank, SWIFT exchange and ICANN to impose sanctions in pursuit of western interests threaten to de-legitimize the power under-girding that very leverage. Written before the Trump presidency, this book highlights how Trump's policies undermining the western alliance, withdrawing from TPP and ceding leadership on global issues are exactly the wrong ways to address many of the legitimate issues that Trump himself had with the current order.

[Adelyne · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very informative account of the global politics, focusing on the distinction between Asia (though a lot of the narrative is focused on China) vs. what is happening in the West. For what it was, and given that I don’t have a lot of background on the topic, I found this one surprisingly easy to follow. I see some other reviewers commenting that this book lacks depth, or novelty by way of ideas, but I thought Rachman did a fantastic job of putting different little topics together and weaving them into a single narrative without it feeling like I was jumping from one topic to another while reading. My one gripe is that I found that the author isn’t as objective as he probably wanted to believe he was being, I sensed quite a strong anti-China sentiment in certain parts (I’m not Chinese, so don’t think it’s unconscious bias on my part) although overall he did a very good job of backing most opinions / observations up with concrete examples.

One thing I found particularly interesting is that this book was written prior to Donald Trump’s winning of the US presidential election – quite a lot of the commentary on USA and its response to the happenings in Asia are focused on Obama’s policies and ways of doing things, and Trump couldn’t be more different in many respects. I’d be interested to read a follow-up to this book in a few years time, if one were to be written. 4.5 stars, 4 on Goodreads.

[Vi · Rating 4 out of 5]

I thought this book was well written for the most part. Although a Western point of view, it did try very hard to balance it at most points showing the Russian/Chinese/Indian/Brazilian/non-Western side of the argument referencing to political and international relations experts in those respective countries. For that part in itself, I thought the author was objective (surprising). The last chapter was probably the most surprising for me. For some reason, I suspected institutions as in institutional funds/wealth/investors but it was something totally different and informative (mostly because I never studies politics and international relations).

Although lines/comments such as "... Restrictive Western attitudes to visas and immigration are already a source of anger in South and East Asia, and matters may get worse as concerns about terrorism increase the domestic pressure on Western governments to clamp down on immigration..." I thought were kind of ignorant on the fact that it is also the case in South and East Asia where terrorism occurs but not covered in the eyes of the West. Especially China and India are under terrorist attacks more than in the West but, not covered as much on CNN, Fox, etc.. Just like the 2014 Indian elections lol!

Overall, I give it 4 out of 5. Definitely found some more interesting reads via its referencing.

[Paul Taylor · Rating 5 out of 5]

An exceptional book which I read in conjunction with the Fate of the West by Bill Emmott. Old (school) ties are strong both metaphorically and physically as this and Emmott's work highlight (Emmott was a few years ahead of me at school) but it is surprising how quickly long standing can break down due to lingering resentments, fear and greed. As in so much of life the adage "follow the money" is causing the pendulum to swing in an Easterly direction, which is causing great and understandable misgivings. Nationalist attitudes are growing, the challenges that face the world: climate change, mass migration, wars, terrorism, financial and geopolitical uncertainty all present threats which need a global, co-operative approach to their solution. In the febrile administration of Donald Trump described eloquently by Rachman as:"a trash talking television personality and real estate mogul..." the prospect of global consensus politics is less hopeful than it might be. Time will tell but we face a very different world order in the coming decades.

[Muhammed · Rating 4 out of 5]

Despite being roughly two years old, the content remains highly relevant to the world today. In fact, in some cases, particularly in how America has being dealing with Asia, the book is almost prophetic and you can clearly see a basis for why policy changes have been made in Washington based on the situation as described here. From time to time Mr Rachman gives personal accounts of interactions he's had with diplomats and provides an insiders view of what the real political tone of the world is (although some quotes come from "a friend in xxx country" are presented they are usually used to support a perspective rather than prove it). I found most of the chapters enjoyable but was disappointed with how brief the concluding chapters were and it seemed as if there was a more hurried tone in dealing with topics on Africa and in the final concluding remarks. While still providing great insight, it felt like less research and care was taken in dealing with these topics when compared to the well researched and statistically dense earlier part of the book.

[Harinder · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is the first book I've read on international relations that really tries to wrestle with the implications of the rise of the East - China, India and Southeast Asia - as the major global forces for the 21st century. I thought Rachman's take on this was so thoughtful. He points out the state of denial that most countries of the West (but particularly the US) are in (still!) about China's rise. Rachman also is clear about what the implications of that rise will be for the world order we have come to accept and (in most of the world) value. And finally, he also reminds us that economic power is not the only key to global dominance. The West's "institutional advantage" and its huge soft power - the fact that most people still aspire to the quality of life and lifestyles that the West can offer - are valuable assets. But that failing to recognise and allow room for rising economic powers to play a part in global governance will only lead to resentment and erode these advantages. A really valuable, thought-provoking read.