Transformative Scenario Planning

by Adam Kahane

About the Book: Transformative Scenario Planning Provides a creative and constructive way for actors from across a whole system to work together to transform that system People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, or environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They cannot solve their problems in their current context; the larger system within which they are operating is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They cannot transform this system on their own or by working only with their friends or colleagues; the system is too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the actors whose cooperation would be necessary to transform the system dont understand or agree with or trust each other enough to work together. Transformative Scenario Planning takes the well-established methodology of adaptive scenario planning-rigorously constructing a set of stories of alternative possible futures-and turns it on its head. It uses scenarios not only to understand and adapt to the future but also to challenge and change it. It offers a way for us to transform ourselves and our relationships with one another and thereby to transform the systems of which we are part. About the Author: Adam Kahane Adam is a leading organizer, designer and facilitator of processes through which business, government, and civil society leaders can work together to address their toughest challenges. He has worked in more than fifty countries, in every part of the world, with executives and politicians, generals and guerillas, civil servants and trade unionists, community activists and United Nations officials, clergy and artists. Adam is the author of Solving Tough Problems: An Open Way of Talking, Listening, and Creating New Realities (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 2004), about which Nelson Mandela said: This breakthrough book addresses the central challenge of our time: finding a way to work together to solve the problems we hav

Genres: Nonfiction, Business, Leadership, Politics

152 pages, Paperback

First published October 15, 2012

About the author

Adam Kahane is a Director of Reos Partners, an international social enterprise that helps people move forward together on their most important and intractable issues.

Adam is a leading organizer, designer and facilitator of processes through which business, government, and civil society leaders can work together to address such challenges. He has worked in more than fifty countries, in every part of the world, with executives and politicians, generals and guerrillas, civil servants and trade unionists, community activists and United Nations officials, clergy and artists.


Adam is a Member of the Order of Canada. In 2022 he was named a Schwab Foundation Social Innovation Thought Leader of the Year at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Reviews

[Sergio Ledward · Rating 5 out of 5]

Me asombró. No lo esperaba tan profundo, esperanzador, honesto, y además fácil de leer. Es una poderosa apuesta por el diálogo aún en las situaciones más complejas. Lectura obligada para todos los que estén interesados en transformaciones sociales.
Leí una edición de la CNDH México, aplaudo su esfuerzo aunque el prólogo casi logra hacerme no leer el resto.

[Martin Gilbraith · Rating 5 out of 5]

Transformative Scenario Planning takes a narrative approach. Kahane tells the story of the Mont Fleur Scenario exercise, and how it helped a diverse group of South African leaders from across the many divisions of that society to talk through what was happening, what could happen and what needed to happen in their country – and then to act on what they had learned, so contributing to some peaceful forward progress in a situation that had seemed violently stuck.

Drawing on another 20 years of subsequent practice with scenarios, Kahane goes on to outline his conclusions on when and how such planning works best – namely, in situations seen to be unacceptable or unsustainable, that cannot be transformed directly or by people working only with those close to them, and by means of a five stage process detailed in subsequent chapters.

[Fabrice · Rating 4 out of 5]

An inspiring story of how it’s possible to change societies

Adam retells the successful and less successful stories of trying to change society using scenario planning. By bringing a diverse group of leaders together to plan the future, Adam has helped some countries move forward probably in a bit better direction a bit faster.

Inspiring if you didn’t believe change is possible at that scale.

[Kelly Matias · Rating 5 out of 5]

Adam made it easy to understand what Transformative Scenario Planning is all about.
This book makes it possible for anyone to understand what scenarios are and what steps need to be taken in order for anyone to start getting to them.
I really enjoyed reading the examples of previous scenarios writing experiences and I love how Adam even showed us how this process can also be unsuccessful.

[D.Prasanna Bhagwan · Rating 4 out of 5]

It is a very well written book , crisp clear and the author has written alot of his experience and his effort to see problem from various perspectives and solve it step by step is really worth a praise.

[Brenna · Rating 3 out of 5]

Read for school.

[Vikrama Dhiman · Rating 2 out of 5]

I have been looking for a book on Scenario Planning. This book does not end the search.

This is the nth book mentioning South Africa, Shell, and Latin America. The book is more an account of authors own work. It is not bad and in some ways, it is engrossing as well. However, it is not a book on scenario planning and how to use it in your organization.

[Bufo Calvin · Rating 3 out of 5]

Certainly, Adam Kahane has been involved in some remarkable working groups. The basic idea of transformative scenario planning can get disparate, even opposing, groups working together towards a common goal.

Unfortunately, the "basic idea" is about what there is in this particular book. For example, it's amazing that you can get people who have been in violent conflicts with each other, even (as is mentioned in the book), specifically trying to kill each other as individuals, and have them share ideas. How you get them to do that, though, is not covered...just the fact that it happened.

Another element which makes it not work as a practical "how to" guide (and it may not be intended as that) is that the author honestly says that the conditions have to be right for it to succeed...and mentions times when it didn't. It's a bit like saying, "So, you want to eat pizza tonight? First, you need to have a pizza..." Well, yes...if you don't have a pizza, and you aren't told how to get one (either making it yourself or perhaps having it delivered), that doesn't do you much good.

Kahane is clearly a person to be admired, but I can't recommend the book for people who are hoping to learn how to get their own communities "unstuck".

[Josh Patrick · Rating 3 out of 5]

The best part of this book is the method of referring to various scenarios as stories. When you have stories about what could happen, then they are just that, stories.

The author points out that many of the scenario planning activities that happened didn't work out. This shows how scenario planning by itself can't foster huge change. There has to be an inner commitment that goes along with planning change. If both don't happen, there is little chance any of the positive stories will take root.

In some cases the negative scenarios had to play out before countries got around to working on positive scenarios where they changed belief systems as well as actions.

The book is worth a read in that there are some good ideas in it.

[Colin]

The book was an easy-to-read and useful introduction to the world of scenario planning. Kahane's examples, which draw on his experiences, such as the South African Mont Fleur project, were pertinent in portraying the processes of scenario planning. These case studies of national-level scenario planning initiatives were also engaging. A good book for beginners looking to understand what is scenario planning and how it is conducted.

[Tomas Chaigneau · Rating 2 out of 5]

Very well written, but I was definitely not sold on the idea of transformative scenario planning. I felt the author was not critical enough of this approach and focused mostly on the advantages. I would have preferred a more honest account of the merits and pitfalls of this (supposedly wonderful) methodological approach.

[Sam · Rating 4 out of 5]

A refreshingly different perspective on Scenarios here.
The obvious learning point here is that transformative scenarios are the products of stories knitted -weft and warp - with brutal the truth(s). And for such stories to emerge, everyone that is a part of the problem(s) must be part of crafting the solution.

[Etienne Beaulieu · Rating 4 out of 5]

Comme dans ses autres livres Kahane documente les concepts avec pleins d'exemples titrés de sa pratique... en prime c'est synthèse et pertinent! J'aime

[Tonya · Rating 5 out of 5]

Oh my goodness! A new facilitation technique! Love this technique. So easy to read and apply to my work right now. I really recommend this one to my Process Facilitating friends.

[Elsbeth Kwant · Rating 4 out of 5]

A concise and measured book, that describes the possibilities and impossibilities of changing things that matter.