The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017 Can Make You Rich

by Harry S. Dent Jr.

Having spent over three decades studying cycles, Harry Dent recognizes they all have the same characteristics. They all have hierarchies. They all have seasons. And they all bubble up and end in a terrible burst. As Harry writes in his newest, most through-proving and insightful book The Sale of a Lifetime, we’ve been in the economic winter season since 2008 and “it’s during this season that we clear the decks with a devastating crash and debilitating deflation. The economy and markets shed the excesses created during the preceding economic fall bubble boom season and prepare the soil for new blossoming in innovation and a spring boom.”

After the blustering bull market of 2009-2015, we are now preparing for a shakeout more painful than anything we’ve seen before. The purpose of this book, therefore, is “to protect you from the carnage ahead and allow you to both survive and prosper instead.” Harry shows you what makes the years after a massive bubble reset so valuable to investors and businesses ready to make the most of the opportunities that fall from the sky. Harry recognizes that we are about to go through a very difficult few years, but he also knows there are INCREDIBLE opportunities that could help build you a personal fortune that will last the rest of your life!

Genres: Finance, Economics, Business, History, Nonfiction

297 pages, Paperback

Published September 1, 2016

About the author

Harry S. Dent, Jr. (born 1950) is an American financial newsletter writer.

Dent writes an economic newsletter that reviews the economy in the US and around the world through demographic trends focusing on predictable consumer spending patterns, as well as financial markets, and has written several books.

Reviews

[Jay Pruitt · Rating 2 out of 5]

I consider myself to be financially astute and pretty well read when it comes to macro economics. But I just can't quite peg this guy, Harry Dent. The Sale of a Lifetime is the second book I've read that was written by Dent, the other being a book written prior to the last great recession of 2008-2009. This book was written in 2016 and predicts a very major downturn (not caused by a pandemic) in the 2017-2020 timeframe. Like the first book about half way through it I wanted to toss it, as I felt the support for Dent's predictions constituted a large pile of malarkey. He even admits in the book that many believe him to be a quack, calling him the "cycle guy." In short, he describes four short/long term cycles or patterns which tend to repeat over time. When the stars align, voila! You get an economic boom or economic bust.

The reason I've tortured myself to read a second Dent book is that I actually do agree with one of Dent's tenets, that being the demographic cycle (I want to say Dent claims this cycle occurs every 46 years) which goes something like this: People have certain spending habits which occur during certain stages of their lives. Example, people tend to have babies at certain ages and buy their first home at another stage, with their highest (peak) spending occurring when their income is the highest and their spending habits shrinking as they cut back during retirement. So, it stands to reason that, for example, as the Baby Boomer generation "moves through the python", our national economy feels the effects of these changing habits. Fair enough.

However, I fall off the Dent bandwagon when he starts equating cycles to orgasms, and attributes their predictability to recurring sun spots and/or geopolitically recurring seasons. Having said all that, and this is the frustrating part for me, as it relates to both the last recession and the current recession, he NAILED it. Not just the general timing - many people were predicting downturns - but the actual characteristics of the collapse. For example, he very accurately describes Fed monetary policy and actions, the deleveraging which is/will occur, etc. Some of his conclusions, written four years ago are EERILY correct. My sense of logic (1 + 1 = 2) has been turned on its head!

Not sure I can recommend this book. Unless maybe you enjoy a good conspiracy novel every now and then.

[John Dickinson · Rating 2 out of 5]

The author 'appears' that he knows his stuff. But he doesn't cite any of his sources that I absolutely am unable to tell how credible this book is or if it's just a huge scam.

If his stats and data are indeed correct, then this book is a very good history of the trends of economic bubbles and collapses in the United States as well as a good forewarning of the future financial doom soon to hit us.

But if his data is false, then the entire book is a waste not worth the read.

However I will admit that I was disappointed by the book. Based upon the title, I was expecting (and hoping) an informational piece of literature instructing me how to survive the supposed impending economic collapse along with tips on how to exploit the collapse in order to greatly enrich my own self. However about 80% of the was a history lesson of the US economy, 15% the current world economy, and 5% the actual getting rich part. Which I will admit, knowing the history could be interesting, but there's several other books out there that I could have read about that if I cared enough to know. But history is not why I bought this book; learning how to get rich is.

As for the 5% getting rich portion that I actually was interested in. It was very minimal. He basically breezed through writing that section without giving much detail. And didn't provide much help period. There just wasn't much substance there. Plus there was zero advice on how to simply survive the economic collapse for those who don't care bout getting rich off it but simply care just about getting by.

Lastly the writing style was annoying. He gets off track a lot on random tangents that he thinks illustrates his point but could have explained it better without. Plus he always have this distracting snarky comments. Several times I was just shaking my head thinking to myself, "Dude just get to the point already".

I will say though that it was an easy read. Definitely something you can read through all 300 pages in one night. That's what I did.

[Nguyễn Minh Hiếu · Rating 4 out of 5]

Cách để nhận ra bong bóng xuất hiện ở bất kỳ loại hình đầu tư tích trữ tài sản nào, và khi nó đủ to sẽ là khủng hoảng!

[Colette · Rating 2 out of 5]

2.5 stars.

This was a pretty quick read. A lot of it is the history of cycles that Dent uses to predict economic events, which I found quite interesting. About 2/3 of the way through I started thinking his many many charts were starting to get detrimental to his argument. Maybe I didn't understand them, but some of them seemed to be less convincing than what he indicated in his text. I am certainly no economics master. It picked up again in the last large section. If you are looking for detailed help about weathering the storm, you won't find it here, but Dent does give as much advice as he can (given he's trying to predict the future).

Whether Dent's theories are correct, I don't know. If his data is accurate, he's made a good case for a dismal few years. I read this in early 2017 and the stock market is still going up. Maybe things are taking longer than he thought.

Overall, I'm glad I read this. (Although it reads like a car commercial yelling at you; complete with plugs for his newsletter and website.) If these things do start happening I will recognize it. This is written mainly for people who have money already, and since I don't, my plan is to ride out the crash and plan to be in a good position when things start looking up in 5 or 6 years. Maybe I'll buy a house at the bottom in a few years.

[Yuri · Rating 1 out of 5]

I hadn't heard of the author before I began to read the book, but decided to research him better while I read it. Harry S. Dent Jr is frequently preaching the economic apocalypse using as a main argument the shift in demographic around the world. He is frequently wrong about his predictions and makes a lot of noise when he is able to "get it right". But of course he eventually gets it right, if anybody says that it will rain every single day, eventually the person will be right because eventually there will be rain, but that doesn't make the person an expert.

The problem of the book isn't that he is very often wrong, though. Sometimes people makes mistakes because, despite making a good analyses, they fail to account for a factor that is able to change the outcome. That isn't the case with this book. His analysis is poor. He doesn't properly explain and shows with data why he thinks that we are about to have a crisis. He merely says that the demographics has shifted, show a couple charts, and claims that collapse will arrive soon. He talks about "Kondratiev wave" - an economic theory about long term economic cycles that isn't used by mainstream economists - but doesn't explain it properly nor points out the main critics regarding the theory.

I feel like I have wasted my time.

[D.L. Morrese · Rating 2 out of 5]

I was immediately put off by the tone of this book. It reads like an annoying infomercial, with lots of self-congratulation, dire warnings. 'get-rich' promises, and vague references to data that don't seem to say what the author says they say. The 'analysis' seems more like a case of searching for correlations between high level data, assuming they somehow imply causation, and jumping to conclusions about how relevant it is to current situations. There may be some bits of sound advice here, but it's so wrapped in BS it's hard to recognize.

[Bogumil K Baranowski · Rating 5 out of 5]

Phenomenal book!

Eye-opening! Optimistic doomsday book! The author may be stating the obvious yet still most of us refuse to see it! Hard to put down, great read.

[Natasia Angel · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book can be quite open-minded.

However, with many things in life, this book must be taken with a grain of salt. Harry predicted the fall will start from the end of 2016. It is 2018. The market was bullish until the beginning of 2018, then things went wrong because of one effing orange thing, I suppose.

I need to read the next book, which would be 'Zero Hour'.

[Robert · Rating 5 out of 5]

”Những thông điệp cảnh báo về sự đổ vỡ bong bóng nên được nhìn nhận dưới góc nhìn tích cực. Đó không phải là lời tuyên truyền về ngày tận thế.”

Đây là cuốn sách mà mình có dịp đọc khoảng 6 năm trước, giai đoạn mà mình bắt đầu cảm thấy thích tìm hiểu nghiên cứu về các dạng chu kỳ trong kinh tế nói riêng và trong cuộc sống nói chung. Nghe đao to búa lớn vậy thôi chứ thật ra chỉ là mình chỉ cảm thấy nó cần thiết và sẽ giúp cho mình trong tương lai xa không chỉ trong đầu tư mà còn về thú vui trồng cây của mình, sức khỏe, khám phá thiên nhiên. Thật ra thì cuốn sách này chỉ đóng vai trò một phần trong những quyết định về chu kỳ tài chính của mình – thứ mà được tích lũy từ rất nhiều cuốn sách khác mà mình đã đọc cũng như trải nghiệm trong ngành. Mình đã từng viết một bài review list ra những cuốn sách nên đọc cho độc giả nào cũng ưa thích nghiên cứu vị mô và chu kỳ tài chính thế giới như mình.

Như chúng ta đã biết thì Đại suy thoái những năm 1929-1933 là cực kỳ đau thương cho cả thế giới từ các quốc gia hùng mạnh cho đến các nước thuộc thế giới thứ 3 lúc bấy giờ, trong đó có cả Việt Nam được nhắc đến trong cuốn sách “Chìm nổi ở Sài Gòn” mình vừa lên bài review trước cuốn sách này. Thế nhưng, cuộc Đại suy thoái này đã mở ra thời kỳ thịnh vượng kéo dài sau đó cho Hoa Kỳ và toàn thế giới và có thể coi là thời kỳ tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ nhất kể từ thời đế chế La Mã. Do đó, cuốn sách này không chỉ giúp chúng ta tự vệ khi bão tố kéo đến mà còn giúp chúng ta phần nào có góc nhìn khách quan hơn, tích cực hơn khi đối mặt với khủng hoảng để từ đó có thể tận dụng được cơ hội từ nó.

Điểm thú vị và khác biệt của tác giả là việc ông đam mê nghiên cứu về các chu kỳ không chỉ trong lĩnh vực tài chính, trong khuôn khổ cuốn sách này, ông đưa ra các dự báo của mình dựa trên bốn chu kỳ bao gồm: Chu kỳ chi tiêu thế hệ, chu kì địa chính trị, chu kỳ bùng nổ/đổ vỡ và chu kỳ đổi mới công nghệ và điểm mà mình cảm thấy tâm đắc nhất là hướng tiếp cận phân tích tài chính thông qua góc nhìn nhân khẩu học. Qua đó, ông đưa ra những dự báo của mình và đưa ra những những lưu ý và lời khuyên cho công tác đầu tư và quản lý tài chính cả về mặt cá nhân lẫn với đối tượng là các doanh nghiệp. Tuy nhiên, mình có một lưu ý cho các độc giả là với sự khác biệt về môi trường luật pháp, kinh tế và độ trễ của các tác động tài chính thì các mốc thời gian ông đưa ra nên được dời về tương lai 1.5 – 2 năm thì sẽ rất bài bản với thị trường Việt Nam (cuốn sách đã được ra mắt năm 2017 nên thời điểm này chúng ta hoàn toàn có thể nhìn lại để đối chiếu và đúc rút ra những bài học thực tiễn).

Bong bóng có giống cơn cực khoái của nam và nữ không?
Lạm phát và Giảm phát thay phiên là động lực chính cho nền kinh tế như thế nào?
Lịch sử các bong bóng lớn trên thế giới diễn ra như thế nào?
Vì sao chúng ta hay hỏi: tại sao hôm nay giảm, tại sao hôm nay tăng. Mà không nhìn nhận bức tranh của cả một giai đoạn kinh tế?

===============================
- Giai đoạn bong bóng là thời điểm mang lại cho nhà đầu tư khả năng làm giàu nhanh chóng nhưng cũng khiến họ rơi vào hiện tượng “lạc quan tếu”. Con người có bản năng tự nhiên sinh ra bong bóng nhưng lại có điểm mù với các bong bóng do chính chúng ta tạo ra.
- “Bong bóng không điều chỉnh, nó sụp đổ”
Sự sụp đổ sẽ diễn ra nhanh chóng, nhanh đến nỗi bạn không có thời gian để phản ứng và tránh khỏi bị tổn thương.
- Không có cuộc vui nào kéo dài mãi mãi và nỗi buồn cũng thế. Cuộc sống vốn dĩ có tính chu kỳ. Do đó, nhà đầu tư nên giữ được trạng thái tâm lý ỔN ĐỊNH trước hai thái cực khác nhau của thị trường.
Những thông điệp cảnh báo về sự đổ vỡ bong bóng nên được nhìn nhận dưới góc nhìn tích cực. Đó không phải là lời tuyên truyền về ngày tận thế.
- Nhà đầu tư không thích bong bóng vì họ không thích khó khăn của sự đổ vỡ.
Chính phủ và các ban điều hành chính sách chối bỏ nó vì sự thừa nhận càng làm cho sự đổ vỡ xảy ra nhanh hơn. Họ không muốn sự đổ vỡ của nền kinh tế xảy ra trong nhiệm kỳ của họ vì thế họ đưa ra những chính sách can thiệp đầy mạo hiểm nhằm trì hoãn và chuyển điều tồi tệ cho các thế hệ lãnh đạo tương lai.
Khi các chu kỳ quan trọng điều chỉ ra một kết quả đi xuống thì tốt nhất là nên chấp nhận và lên kế hoạch đối phó hơn là trì hoãn.
- Mỗi chu kỳ riêng lẻ không mang đến bức tranh tổng thể.
Không bao giờ chỉ quan sát một chu kỳ duy nhất
Không trở nên quá yêu mến bất cứ một chu kỳ cụ thể nào
Hãy quan sát sự kết hợp và tương quan giữa các chu kỳ
Khi kết hợp các chu kỳ mạnh, một mô hình đáng tin cậy sẽ xuất hiện.
- Lạm phát giống như cơn sốt được thể hiện rõ ra bên ngoài còn giảm phát giống như căn bệnh ung thư. Giảm phát phá hủy nền kinh tế từ bên trong và giống như các bệnh nhân ung thư, người bệnh chỉ nhận ra khi nó bộc lộ… ở giai đoạn cuối.
- Bong bóng cổ phiếu và hàng hóa có khuynh hướng diễn ra nhanh hơn bất động sản, nhưng bất động sản lại được hỗ trợ bởi đòn bẩy cao nên nó lại nguy hiểm hơn. Những lần đổ vỡ bong bóng tồi tệ nhất luôn có sự xuất hiện của thị trường bất động sản.
- Chúng ta không muốn nhìn lại lịch sử trong bức tranh tổng thể dài hạn. Chúng ta có khuynh hướng chỉ nhìn lại trong khoảng thời gian ngắn trước và sau thời điểm hiện tại. Nhưng càng nhìn xa về lịch sử các mẫu hình sẽ trở nên rõ ràng hơn.
- Bong bóng giống như thuốc phiện, khiến cho mọi người cảm thấy tốt hơn. Chúng ta không muốn điều này kết thúc nên chối bỏ sự tồn tại của bong bóng, đặc biệt khi ở giai đoạn cuối. Bong bóng trở nên bền vững và hấp dẫn đến nỗi những người mắc kẹt trong đó sẽ cảm thấy an toàn nhất.
- Nhiều nhà kinh tế xem lạm phát chủ yếu là một hiện tượng tiền tệ nhưng thực tế lạm phát được tạo ra chủ yếu bởi con người.

[Greg Strandberg · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you think the economy isn't working, you'll agree with a lot of this book. If you think things are fine, then you probably won't.

I didn't read the whole book - it's much better for skimming. The large amount of graphs helps with that. That's one of the beauty's of this book - all this information presented in easy-to-read graph format. Besides that you get tons of stats in percentage form.

For instance, "US private debt as % of GDP fell from 150% to 50% after 1929." (p 209)

In China, "between 2000 and 2012, the country's urbanization took a giant leap from 38% to 53%. That's over 200 million people moving from rural areas into cities in just 12 years." (p 233)

"It costs, on average, about $250,000 for parents to raise a child, not counting college costs if they go." (p 115)

"The overall commodity bubble that peaked in mid-2008 has already been down as much as 70% as of January 2016. It clearly has further to go and will ultimately be down 80% or more by the end of this cycle." (p 95)


You get a lot of historical information to compare with our current cycle. I think this book is loaded with good information for those that want to ferret it out.

[Kursad Albayraktaroglu · Rating 3 out of 5]

While the catastrophic market meltdown predicted in this book thankfully never took place, the book is still worth reading for providing a brief but comprehensive history of past crashes; and the author's concerns about the current state of the world's economy seem to be valid.

The book is a quick read, partly because Dent offers neither any substantial references nor a deep explanation of the demographic and debt-related concerns about the markets. I can't say the book has fully convinced me about the existence of an impending market crash, but I still recommend it as a primer on causes of past crashes and a quick overview of the various risks that may or may not turn out to be serious threats to global economy.

[Monita Mehra · Rating 4 out of 5]

In case one wants to understand on cycles and how it keeps repeating itself again and again. A cycle can even last a decade, interesting interpretation to many existing cycles. Simple logic, like the sun what goes up and then comes down, so will everything in the economy and financial markets, go up and come down, the question is when and how. The faster the up move, probably the quicker the down move.
An astute investor has to keep oneself open and keep looking for when winter is arriving and when summer. Probably the study of cycles can keep one ahead in the curve and one can better prepared.

[Arniel · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great Concepts! Boring Details...

This group has great ideas and explains very well, with some very persuasive charts, what bubbles are, how to spot them, and how to benefit from them. I would have rated it 5 stars, but a majority of the book was spent reiterating previous concepts to death.

After reading through the first few major chapters, I suggest reading the first page or so of the following chapters and skimming to the end. If you find yourself in one of the situations mentioned, you can always pick the book back up and read more in detail.

[Anton Nikolov · Rating 3 out of 5]

Some interesting thoughts based on the cycles that we all can notice but to me it seems a bit too pessimistic. OK, book looking into the financial stock market history and trying to make sense of it based on demographics and other variables that potentially could be predicted and therefore help you make clever decisions on the stock market.

Just checked some of the predictions in the book for this year 2017 and can't say they came to be. So it speaks that things are not that predictable as the author claims them to be.

[Steven J. · Rating 3 out of 5]

I like that Richard Dent is staying sharp with his research and opinions. The Roaring 2000's was so interesting and touched upon demographics and technology growth that performed as well as he expected. This one shapes up to be a good read with a theory that that the U.S. is approaching the end of a bull cycle that has been artificially been supported for too long. I had read this book prior to the 2017-2019 predicted period of fall and i must admit that i also grew cautious after reading this book. Thankfully his theory has not gone as predicted.

[Maramis · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great Concepts! Boring Details...

This group has great ideas and explains very well, with some very persuasive charts, what bubbles are, how to spot them, and how to benefit from them. I would have rated it 5 stars, but a majority of the book was spent reiterating previous concepts to death.

After reading through the first few major chapters, I suggest reading the first page or so of the following chapters and skimming to the end. If you find yourself in one of the situations mentioned, you can always pick the book back up and read more in detail.

[Yury Moskaltsov · Rating 2 out of 5]

Interesting book about the demographic cycles and their influence on market but nothing more than that.

Too much boasting about how great of an analyst he is.

Also I randomly compared a few charts in his book to the real ones and they seem a bit off. For example, Dow Jones chart.

If you are into easy reading high level economic review then it is for you, but I would suggest to do more research before you rely on Harry Dent’s suggestions.

[Philip · Rating 4 out of 5]

Harry Dent outlines the 4 cycles that shape our world's economic growth, how governmental stimuli affected the economy in diverse countries and how investors/business owners can benefit of deflations and economical crashes. Worth reading for politicians, entrepreneurs and real estate/ capital market investors! (book recommended due to lots of charts and statistical data)

[Natalie · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is clearly not super accurate, since it is already 2018, but I do think the bubble burst will be sometime in the next couple years. Some of his stuff is super well-researched and interesting, and some of his stuff (like the sun spots stuff) seems like total quackery. I have mixed feelings about this book.

[Evan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Certainly food for thought. There are some ideas presented that have concerned me for a time - particularly the impact of the boomers leaving the workforce and spending less. His point that people drive economies is an important thought to consider.

[Herald van der Linde · Rating 1 out of 5]

Where is the analysis?

Not a lot of in-depth demographic analysis and links to equity markets are sometimes confusing. But here and there some interesting stats and analysis. Easy to read, though.

[Douglas · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book approaches predicting the future based on recurring cycles, especially based on demographics. It provides an interesting and useful perspective to a well rounded investor.

[Will Rodrguez · Rating 5 out of 5]

It has really good history information. I knew 90% of what he explained from another source. It will only happened once In my life time so it's time to get ready for it....

[Lenny · Rating 2 out of 5]

Interesting idea, but Dent is so prone to the confirmation bias that he's completely blind to his own failed predictions in the past. A serial predictor with a God complex.

[Diljo Johny · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good to understand emerging markets trends and bubble history around the world.

[Carl Vidal · Rating 2 out of 5]

It's just depressing to read. Let's hope this is wrong

[Toni Vitali · Rating 4 out of 5]

Important book to get a grasp of how and why economical cycles are made. Would recommend to anyone at least somewhat interested in finance/investing/global economics

[Tuấn Anh · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have read the Vietnamese version. The book provides interesting information about the types of cycles and forecasts.

[Kenn Reff · Rating 2 out of 5]

Hisotry was good, but dated information about what investments to make now.

[Wenny H · Rating 3 out of 5]

He is either a genius, a madman, or both. Interesting take on cycles though that might have some merit. Make of that what you will.