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Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving The Soft Depression Of The 21st Century
"History shows that people who save and invest grow and prosper, and the others deteriorate and collapse.
As Financial Reckoning Day demonstrates, artificially low interest rates and rapid credit creation policies set by Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve caused the bubble in U.S. stocks of the late '90s. . . . Now, policies being pursued at the Fed are making the bubble worse. They are changing it from a stock market bubble to a consumption and housing bubble.
And when those bubbles burst, it's going to be worse than the stock market bubble . . .
No one, of course, wants to hear it. They want the quick fix. They want to buy the stock and watch it go up twenty-five percent because that's what happened last year, and that's what they say on TV."
--Jim Rogers, author of the bestseller Adventure Capitalist
from the Foreword to Financial Reckoning Day Advanced praise from bestselling authors
"An investment book that will not only enlarge your investment horizon, but also make you laugh and thoroughly entertain you for a few hours."
--Dr. Marc Faber, author of the bestseller Tomorrow's Gold
"Financial Reckoning Day is . . . in the category of scintillating sex or good vision, something to be savored and enjoyed-before it is too late."
--James Dale Davidson, author of the bestseller The Great Reckoning and The Sovereign Individual
"A powerful and insightful vision . . . each paragraph stimulates a new rush of thoughts that fills in gaping holes in the investor's understanding of what has happened to their dreams . . . while prepping them to confront any new confusion that may arrive."
--Martin D. Weiss, author of the bestseller Crash Profits
As Financial Reckoning Day demonstrates, artificially low interest rates and rapid credit creation policies set by Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve caused the bubble in U.S. stocks of the late '90s. . . . Now, policies being pursued at the Fed are making the bubble worse. They are changing it from a stock market bubble to a consumption and housing bubble.
And when those bubbles burst, it's going to be worse than the stock market bubble . . .
No one, of course, wants to hear it. They want the quick fix. They want to buy the stock and watch it go up twenty-five percent because that's what happened last year, and that's what they say on TV."
--Jim Rogers, author of the bestseller Adventure Capitalist
from the Foreword to Financial Reckoning Day Advanced praise from bestselling authors
"An investment book that will not only enlarge your investment horizon, but also make you laugh and thoroughly entertain you for a few hours."
--Dr. Marc Faber, author of the bestseller Tomorrow's Gold
"Financial Reckoning Day is . . . in the category of scintillating sex or good vision, something to be savored and enjoyed-before it is too late."
--James Dale Davidson, author of the bestseller The Great Reckoning and The Sovereign Individual
"A powerful and insightful vision . . . each paragraph stimulates a new rush of thoughts that fills in gaping holes in the investor's understanding of what has happened to their dreams . . . while prepping them to confront any new confusion that may arrive."
--Martin D. Weiss, author of the bestseller Crash Profits
306 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2003
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Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews
January 16, 2008
This is one difficult book to review because I am having problems summarizing everything. The concepts are deep; the data is vast.
There are four major themes in the book:
The USA economically speaking in the decade of 2000 is similar to Japan in the decade of 1990. Japan is still trying to get out of the 1990 ruts of recession, a hiccup of a recovery, and then another recession. Japan is still in a hangover over their boom 1980’s when they enjoyed a stock market and a real estate boom. Now Japan struggles against deflation – meaning consumers are not purchasing. There was a great boom a decade ago in Japan but for every boom there must an equal and opposite bust. The USA has had a stock market boom and is in a real estate boom. What will happen to the USA in the future?
Second, there has NEVER been a fiat currency (meaning a currency that is backed only by the promise of a government) that has lasted. The dollar is the only known fiat currency that has appreciated against gold over a twenty year period. With a currency backed by gold, it gives the government some restraint. Nowadays, the government literally can just print more money whenever it wants. Unfortunately, the more money it prints, it makes the money in our pocket worth less. There’s a reason that since the invention of money, money has been backed by gold (at times silver). Now we have a government running amok making promises that it won’t be able to keep.
There’s a real estate bust that is ahead of us that will be much worse than the stock market bust. The stock market bust had people lose money who had money. However, when real estate busts, it will be the people who don’t have money that will be hurt. The book laments about the ratio of median income to median housing value and reminds us of Japan’s real estate boom.
Finally, there are stories of past boom/bust stories …. South Sea, Napoleon’s Mississippi, and Waterloo. Each time supporters cry “It’s different this time!” and every time they have ended up being wrong: the Internet, the automobile, the telephone, the telegraph, railroads, airplanes, and even the New World. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The writers of the book have an email newsletter that I am subscribed to (that’s how I found the book). If nothing else, I think it’s wise to read about other people’s viewpoints – especially if they are rational and they disagree with you. My personal viewpoint on the subject of where the economy will go is beyond the scope of this message.
There are four major themes in the book:
The USA economically speaking in the decade of 2000 is similar to Japan in the decade of 1990. Japan is still trying to get out of the 1990 ruts of recession, a hiccup of a recovery, and then another recession. Japan is still in a hangover over their boom 1980’s when they enjoyed a stock market and a real estate boom. Now Japan struggles against deflation – meaning consumers are not purchasing. There was a great boom a decade ago in Japan but for every boom there must an equal and opposite bust. The USA has had a stock market boom and is in a real estate boom. What will happen to the USA in the future?
Second, there has NEVER been a fiat currency (meaning a currency that is backed only by the promise of a government) that has lasted. The dollar is the only known fiat currency that has appreciated against gold over a twenty year period. With a currency backed by gold, it gives the government some restraint. Nowadays, the government literally can just print more money whenever it wants. Unfortunately, the more money it prints, it makes the money in our pocket worth less. There’s a reason that since the invention of money, money has been backed by gold (at times silver). Now we have a government running amok making promises that it won’t be able to keep.
There’s a real estate bust that is ahead of us that will be much worse than the stock market bust. The stock market bust had people lose money who had money. However, when real estate busts, it will be the people who don’t have money that will be hurt. The book laments about the ratio of median income to median housing value and reminds us of Japan’s real estate boom.
Finally, there are stories of past boom/bust stories …. South Sea, Napoleon’s Mississippi, and Waterloo. Each time supporters cry “It’s different this time!” and every time they have ended up being wrong: the Internet, the automobile, the telephone, the telegraph, railroads, airplanes, and even the New World. Wrong, wrong, wrong.
The writers of the book have an email newsletter that I am subscribed to (that’s how I found the book). If nothing else, I think it’s wise to read about other people’s viewpoints – especially if they are rational and they disagree with you. My personal viewpoint on the subject of where the economy will go is beyond the scope of this message.
July 8, 2020
A compelling (though by now dated) history of the modern financial system up to the Greenspan era. W. Bonner demonstrates a knack for establishing panoramic historical perspectives relating to the contemporary financial fiat/fractional reserve banking system.
Also a surprisingly philosophical book. The author frequently reconciles some rather pessimistic political and economic realities with a Stoic or perhaps even Epicurean mentality, as the delightfully bold final lines of the book demonstrates.
"Financial Reckoning" is the product of a deep thinker. Bonner is clearly a man grappling with the historical and philosophical implications of the present order's slow but inevitable death.
Also a surprisingly philosophical book. The author frequently reconciles some rather pessimistic political and economic realities with a Stoic or perhaps even Epicurean mentality, as the delightfully bold final lines of the book demonstrates.
"Financial Reckoning" is the product of a deep thinker. Bonner is clearly a man grappling with the historical and philosophical implications of the present order's slow but inevitable death.
December 14, 2009
Yup...I read this one as soon as I completed Mobs...
August 23, 2016
Great insight about the effect demographics have on markets. The rest of the book is also interesting. I found it incredible that this book was written before this last crash.
June 21, 2021
Fantastic book I picked up at Freedom Fest in 2002/3.
First read in summer of 2005 while working as a pest control technician in Northern Virginia in between service calls in my truck. I could see the real estate bubble he spoke about growing by the day. It was like reading about a slow-motion train wreck while being within eye-view of the train tracks.
It helped 1) me get out of that field which was so dependent on real estate (termite inspections for home sales), 2) go back to college (first class at four-year was Econ 101 in Fall of '08 when professor said Bear Stearns & Lehman Bros. would never go bankrupt, and that mortgage-backed securities were fine "unless of course everyone stops paying their mortgage at once, but that's never going to happen." LOL) and 3) avoid a major that I had previously really wanted to get into (landscape architecture) because of its reliance on the housing market.
This book saved me from a lot of grief, stress and financial ruin as I rode out the recession in academia (2008-2014), which ended up giving me a first-hand look at the next 2 leviathans to up-end society in the coming decade: woke-ism (undergrad) and the rise of China (grad).
I owe a lot to this book I just happened to pick up in Las Vegas.
First read in summer of 2005 while working as a pest control technician in Northern Virginia in between service calls in my truck. I could see the real estate bubble he spoke about growing by the day. It was like reading about a slow-motion train wreck while being within eye-view of the train tracks.
It helped 1) me get out of that field which was so dependent on real estate (termite inspections for home sales), 2) go back to college (first class at four-year was Econ 101 in Fall of '08 when professor said Bear Stearns & Lehman Bros. would never go bankrupt, and that mortgage-backed securities were fine "unless of course everyone stops paying their mortgage at once, but that's never going to happen." LOL) and 3) avoid a major that I had previously really wanted to get into (landscape architecture) because of its reliance on the housing market.
This book saved me from a lot of grief, stress and financial ruin as I rode out the recession in academia (2008-2014), which ended up giving me a first-hand look at the next 2 leviathans to up-end society in the coming decade: woke-ism (undergrad) and the rise of China (grad).
I owe a lot to this book I just happened to pick up in Las Vegas.
November 16, 2024
Another book predicting crashes that consistently failed in its predictions, just like all the others by Bill Bonner.
Rule for life: Anything that Agora publishes - do the opposite and you will have a very successful investing portfolio.
Rule for life: Anything that Agora publishes - do the opposite and you will have a very successful investing portfolio.
April 27, 2012
It all started with a financial newsletter The Daily Reckoning, in which Mr Bonner in particular pushed this book. His financial scribing seemed well informed and well founded so I thought I'd get this book, and it was a great decision. There are a few chapters that get a bit heavy going, but in general the authors provide an entertaining insight into our current financial plight, and what must happen before things will be back to normal. Their extrapolation might seem rather radical, but they have the logic and the history to back them up. I also took their advice to invest in gold which continues to pay off, but I am really hoping that their next favoured trade, Japan, really takes off so that I can retire!
May 31, 2008
bill bonner is a very good writer. good style and prose... anyway, i thought the book was kind of depressing, but it made a very solid argument for the fiancial ruin america was heading towards and practical advice - to invest in gold - to protect your wealth.
December 12, 2016
Сильная книга. Очерк истории экономики США от краха дотком до Великой Депрессии, качественный язык, ирония, фактаж... Один недостаток - выхода из складывающийся ситуации авторы не видят. Но не видят его и многие другие, так что читать, сравнивать, думать. Однозначно.
April 14, 2008
Eh. I didn't finish this book. The author mixes his personal opinion with facts so much that I had difficulty deciphering the difference. Not a good layman's or intro book.
Displaying 1 - 10 of 10 reviews