"The growing incapability of grown men to function as breadwinners cannot help but undermine the American family. It casts those who nature designed to be strong into the role of dependents — on their wives or girlfriends, on their aging parents, or on government welfare." — page 5, Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis.
Could there be a more establishment Republican sentence than that?
Partisanship aside, there’s a serious problem within the American labor force — one that has gotten steadily worse over the past 50 years and has accelerated even further over the past several years. Men who are within their prime working years are not only unemployed, they are completely disengaged from the job market. They are not looking for work and they are not contributing in a significant way to society.
Nicholas Eberstadt examines this problem in his 2016 book “Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis.” Eberstadt is a political economist and, as you can imagine from that opening quote, a very conservative one. To his credit, however, he concludes this book with two critical essays by political economists from the middle and from the left of the political spectrum. All three experts concur: we have a serious, vexing problem on our hands. Opinions diverge on the cause.
Let’s get a sense of the problem from statistics collected by Eberstadt and his research team. Currently, there are roughly 10 million American men who could be and (presumably) should be working, but are not. This worker deficit translates to about 22 percent of men between the ages of 20 and 65 — and, remember, these are not unemployed men who are looking for work … rather these are unemployed men who are not searching for jobs at all.
This isn’t a sudden, new phenomenon. This population of “unworking” men has been growing more or less steadily for the past 50 some-odd years. In the 1960s, about one in every 16 sixteen prime-age American men were completely outside the workforce. Today? One in every six men fit this description. Currently, for every unemployed man who’s looking for a job, there are three more men who are completely off the grid.
Rural and southern states are bearing the brunt of this problem; the seven worst states for “unworking” are West Virginia, Kentucky, New Mexico, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama. Globally, this rate of decline is much deeper in the U.S. as compared to other major world economies (however, those countries are also seeing more and more men entering this “unworking” category).
So, what do these unworking men do with their time? Not much. The American Time Use Survey shows that these men spend significantly more time sleeping, socializing and TV-watching than both men who are unemployed-but-searching and employed people of any sex. As a group, these unworkers tend not to devote their abundant of free time to educational pursuits, caretaking or volunteerism.
Tragically, perhaps unsurprisingly, more than 30 percent of these men have reported taking illegal drugs — as opposed to 8 percent of employed men. One imagines the modern scourges of meth and opioid abuse have and will push these numbers even higher.
So, what’s behind this? Eberstadt, perhaps naturally as a conservative, points to the welfare state, calling out by name Lyndon Baines Johnson and his Great Society. Eberstadt cites evidence on the abuse of unemployment insurance (which does appear to be abused more than most social programs). He cites the percentage growth of people relying upon food stamps, Medicaid and other programs within the overall social safety net. Amusingly, Eberstadt claims that the poor and out-of-work benefit more from government largesse than anyone else — ignoring the fact that tax breaks and mortgage interest deductions are substantially greater government handouts disproportionately benefiting the richest Americans. But I digress.
Beyond welfare, Eberstadt spends considerable time — admirably so — discussing the impact of our burgeoning population of men with arrest records, especially felony arrest records. America’s criminal justice system, in and of itself, is a serious problem and one that bears the stain of racism. For example, in 1979 about 15 percent of black men age 30 to 34 without a high school degree had an arrest record. By 2009, that number had exploded to an unfathomable 68 percent! (Note that a high school degree drops that percentage to 21 percent, and a college degree cuts it to 6.6 percent.)
Overall, about 20 million men are current or former felons. And you don’t have to be an economist or sociologist to know that many felons struggle mightily to find steady employment.
How does Eberstadt suggest we fix this problem? By revitalizing American businesses, of course, as any old-school conservative would. And by reducing the incentive to lie down in the social safety net. And through criminal justice reform. But if you blink you’ll miss his solutions — Eberstadt devotes 150 some-odd pages to defining the problem, but just seven pages to solutions.
Enter Henry Olson (a center-right think-tanker) and Jason Bernstein (a liberal economist). Eberstadt includes their critiques of his theories at the end of this book — a very admirable move, if you ask me. Both Henry and Jason are in full agreement with Nicholas that unworking men are a very serious problem for the United States economically and sociologically. Olson, however, makes an brilliant point that Eberstadt’s numbers do nothing to record or access why these men are claiming “unworking” as their status. Indeed, the government agencies asking men about their work status are not asking the question of how or why they claim this status. Without that information, every statistic lobbed up as a cause — welfare, prison, racism — can be waved off as correlation-is-not-causation.
Importantly, Olson and Bernstein address a topic that, shockingly, Bernstein barely mentions: the de-industrialization of America. One clear difference between the United States then (mid-1960s) and now (mid-2010s) is that factory jobs and other jobs that do not require advanced degrees or technical expertise used to be more abundant. Not to mention, they used to pay a living wage. This puts a dent in the hypothesis that laziness is a primary motivator pushing men to leave the workforce altogether. To quote Bernstein’s critique, the data “suggests less [men’s] flight from work and more work’s flight from them.”
Finally, Bernstein takes a harder look at the correlation between the American welfare state and rates of male unemployment and finds that the data does not match as well as Eberstadt suggests. This makes logical sense on a global scale, as male unemployment is much greater a problem in the United States as compared to western European nations, Canada and Japan (which have more robust safety nets).
In short — the more men and women at work in the United States, the lower our rates of poverty and the better our economic outlook. That millions of able-bodied, prime-of-life men are not working, choosing not to work, unable to find work, too drug-addled to work, too depressed to work, or too outclassed to work is, indeed, an enormous problem that will lead to both immediate and long-term economic and social decline. Fixing this problem requires a bi-partisan approach — not unlike the approach that Eberstadt, Olson and Bernstein have demonstrated.