The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History

by David Hackett Fischer

David Hackett Fischer, one of our most prominent historians, has garnered a reputation for making history come alive--even stories as familiar as Paul Revere's ride, or as complicated as the assimilation of British culture in North America.

Now, in The Great Wave, Fischer has done it again, marshaling an astonishing array of historical facts in lucid and compelling prose to outline a history of prices--"the history of change," as Fischer puts it--covering the dazzling sweep of Western history from the medieval glory of Chartres to the modern day.

Going far beyond the economic data, Fischer writes a powerful history of the people of the Western world: the economic patterns they lived in, and the politics, culture, and society that they created as a result. As he did in Albion's Seed and Paul Revere's Ride, two of the most talked-about history books in recent years, Fischer combines extensive research and meticulous scholarship with wonderfully evocative writing to create a book for scholars and general readers alike.

Records of prices are more abundant than any other quantifiable data, and span the entire range of history, from tables of medieval grain prices to the overabundance of modern statistics. Fischer studies this wealth of data, creating a narrative that encompasses all of Western culture.

He describes four waves of price revolutions, each beginning in a period of equilibrium: the High Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and finally the Victorian Age. Each revolution is marked by continuing inflation, a widening gap between rich and poor, increasing instability, and finally a crisis at the crest of the wave that is characterized by demographic contraction, social and political upheaval, and economic collapse.

The most violent of these climaxes was the catastrophic fourteenth century, in which war, famine, and the Black Death devastated the continent--the only time in Europe's history that the population actually declined.

Fischer also brilliantly illuminates how these long economic waves are closely intertwined with social and political events, affecting the very mindset of the people caught in them. The long periods of equilibrium are marked by cultural and intellectual movements--such as the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the Victorian Age-- based on a belief in order and harmony and in the triumph of progress and reason. By contrast, the years of price revolution created a melancholy culture of despair.

Fischer suggests that we are living now in the last stages of a price revolution that has been building since the turn of the century. The destabilizing price surges and declines and the diminished expectations the United States has suffered in recent years--and the famines and wars of other areas of the globe--are typical of the crest of a price revolution.

He does not attempt to predict what will happen, noting that "uncertainty about the future is an inexorable fact of our condition." Rather, he ends with a brilliant analysis of where we might go from here and what our choices are now. This book is essential reading for anyone concerned about the state of the world today.

Genres: History, Economics, Nonfiction, Politics, Business, Finance, World History

536 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 1996

About the author

David Hackett Fischer is University Professor of History Emeritus at Brandeis University and one of America’s most influential historians. His work spans cultural history, economics, and narrative nonfiction, with major titles including Albion’s Seed, The Great Wave, Paul Revere’s Ride, and the Pulitzer Prize-winning Washington’s Crossing. Educated at Princeton and Johns Hopkins, Fischer has combined scholarly depth with accessible storytelling throughout his career. His Champlain’s Dream further showcased his skill for biographical history, earning international recognition. Honored with the Pritzker Literature Award for Lifetime Achievement in Military Writing, he is celebrated for both his groundbreaking research and his dedication to teaching.

Reviews

[Anna Sheehan · Rating 5 out of 5]

Whenever anyone looks at the world and sees that everything is falling apart – the top half percent of the top one percent own 98 percent of everything; the governments are corrupt or ineffectual, allowing policies that only reinforce the status quot; the environment is crumbling as millions of species and every single Eco-system suffers from pollution and climate change, respectively, stemming from the very policies that reinforce the status quot of the top one percent of global money sultans – it is refreshing and comforting to know that we’ve gone through all this before.

Many, many times.

David Fischer’s book spells this all out with irrefutable facts and easy-to-assess charts, impeccable research, and a clever and occasionally humorous narrative structure, (the durable consumer goods in medieval Europe were armor, and thus made to make a more durable consumer – I nearly dropped the book I laughed so hard) that, despite all the statistics, makes it easily accessible to both the educated and the layman in economics.

And at the end of each of these economic ages, Fischer points out, when the people have been pushed so close to the margins that the smallest disaster causes utter collapse, it is nice to know that a period of stability arises from the ashes of economic/societal/ecological disaster. These are the eras with kings who have “the great” pasted after their names. These are the stable times when war, though it may exist in pockets, does not plunge the world into chaos, and population levels stabilize, architecture, art and technology are cherished, and education thrives. It is nice to see that it has happened before. It will happen again. It is happening before our eyes.

Here it is again. Ride the wave.

[Rudyard L. · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is easily one of the best history books of all the time. It’s the equivalent of being able to look at the machinery that propels the cycles of history. It provides a picture clear representation of the issues currently facing the modern world. It is simply revolutionary to the field of economics.

[Michae;l · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting narrative on what is seen as long themes in pricing. I don't think the math/science is particularly accurate but that's what you'd expect from a historian. Interesting regardless...

[Vikas Erraballi · Rating 4 out of 5]

I haven’t read the 4th Turning, because it seemed a bit too sensationalist for my taste. If my understanding of that book’s argument is correct, this one comes to similar conclusions from the prism of price waves.

20+ years from time of publication, I don’t get the sense we’ve really had the blow off required to set into a new equilibrium. The statistics, Gini coefficients, don’t support it. Maybe crime or family formation show more positive trends? I don’t think they do.

Which means the real crash lies ahead. And then we get a rosy decade or century. Read with ‘The Three Body Problem.’

Author also suggests an agent based modeling framework without (probably) realizing it, or at least something similar. Read with Bookstaber’s ‘End of Theory’.

Read with ‘The Sovereign Individual’.

Then go get yourself a farm or hedge social fabric dissolution in whatever way seems best to you.

[Nia · Rating 3 out of 5]

There were many interesting older sources, particularly in French, but I was unable to find copies of the books because they are so old, unfortunately. I would especially have liked to see the old French compilations on the economy of the Middle East and Summerian areas in the ancient world. But, what strikes me as most important about this book is simply the lack of Anglophone access to the academic works on long-term economic history which seem to be taken for granted by French, Spanish and German speakers. How do we get not only inter-disciplinary studies but also multi-lingual studies to be given a more prominent place in Anglophone academia?
Shira

[Justin Rodger · Rating 4 out of 5]

An empirical study of price history from 1200 to 2000 with 4 waves occurring separated by the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Victorian era. The main idea is original and a great lens to look at broad history through. A bit dry at times as it refers to sources and comparative studies extensively.

[David · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great read. It's like This Time is Different, but going back to around 1200AD. I'd say This Time is Different is more rigorous but The Great Wave also provides a financial perspective on history which makes it worthy of a read for the interested.

[Walter Cavinaw · Rating 5 out of 5]

Reading this book is part of a larger project in trying to understand the structure of history and the dynamics that drive it. From that perspective this book is one of the most important ones I have read so far.

The chart in the first chapter provides a great overview of the phenomena he is trying to describe, and is worth googling. Over the course of the past 800 years prices of commodities and consumables have advanced through 4 great price revolutions.

The procession of the four price revolutions are:
- the twelfth century renaissance, the medieval price revolution, the crisis of the fourteenth century, ending with the equilibrium of the renaissance.
- the renaissance, the sixteenth century price revolution, the crisis of the seventeenth century, the enlightenment equilibrium
- the enlightenment equilibrium, eighteenth century price revolution, the crises of the early 19th century, ending with the victorian equilibrium
- the victorian equilibrium, the 20th century price revolution (which we are currently still in or have passed and are now in the crisis period?)

Each of these waves have similarities in social, cultural and economic trends. Before each price revolution, in the equilibrium era, real wages tend to be high (relative to the past), society is optimistic, rents and interest are low and crime is low relative to history. People start to get married earlier and have more children, leading to a growth in population.

This growth leads to rising demand and rising prices. Eventually people begin to notice that prices are rising higher than what they have been before. An inflationary mentality sets in and the actions of people reinforce inflation (and its consequences). Prices become more volatile as they approach the crisis era.

During the crisis period, there was historically a decline in population due to famine, disease, social turmoil, increased crime & substance abuse, and often revolutions. The crisis periods described by Fischer significantly overlap with Goldstone's Revolutionary periods and they describe similar mechanisms: strained government finances, increased inequality, low real wages. Fischer here differs from Goldstone and claims there was class conflict, rather than Goldstone's intra-elite conflict (Goldstone is more accurate in my view).

The crisis era results in later marriages, fewer children and therefore (eventually) higher real wages and more equality. This becomes the next renaissance, enlightment, etc.

There are many other trends and interesting observations for each price revolution and similarities between them. It makes the signal to noise ratio very high for such a short book.

He also outlines the changing character from period to period, which you could roughly attribute to the accumulation and institutionalization of better technologies and ideas. Each successive price revolution has higher inflation, is shorter, has less volatility. Each crises results in less death due to higher economic surpluses, but more social friction.

In order to explain why these trends come about he describes economies and societies as networks of people making decisions. These decisions are made within the confines of the current cultural, social, and economic reality and collectively create similar effects when people are faced with similar circumstances. He describes it as autogenous: the process creates itself. It is very similar to Peter Turchin's ideas (and others) of society as a system with endogenous dynamics.

Outlining history in this way makes you wonder where we are today in this great wave. You would be hard pressed to think we are not transitioning to the crisis period after the price revolution of the 20th century. Increased crime, substance abuse, lowest real wages (relative to the past 80 years), high inequality, social conflict.

The last section of the book -- and unfortunately this seems to happen with many books -- turned into a less coherent rant. In this case argues that free markets are not perfect (I agree) but then goes so far as to suggest they caused the Napoleonic wars. This was a major stretch, and a huge bummer for what was otherwise a phenomenal book.

There are many people like me trying to understand the dynamics of history, how humans behave collectively, and what that might tell us about possible future outcomes. The book provides incredible insight into this area and I highly recommend it. It also has a long narrated bibliography divided into different topics.

[Fred R · Rating 3 out of 5]

Tantalizing, but frustratingly under-theorized. The connection with social dysfunction was particularly interesting, but, again, he doesn't really explore the why's and wherefore's.

The process looks vaguely Malthusian (although my impression is that he's too quick to dismiss the monetarist explanation), but if it is so, there's much more that could be said, such as how, exactly, rising productivity interacts with the Malthusian dynamic. But instead of thinking about that issue, Fischer just tells us that people starved to death less in the downswings because of various welfare laws. This is as superficial as his castigations of Reagan, whose tenure as President was nowhere near long enough to have anything to do with the macro-historical trends discussed.

I feel obliged to point out that although the book is 500 pages, 250 of those pages are appendices and endnotes.

Now that I'm thinking about it again, I can't really believe how far this book falls short of what it could have been. On the other hand this seems to be a common complaint in the reviews I put up here on Goodreads.

[Stephen · Rating 4 out of 5]

I really liked this book. It aims to describe the course of four great inflationary waves from the thirteenth century to the present. As it does, it presents us with a structure to the patterning that allows us to look at the familiar as well as the dissimilar aspects to each of the waves. In the view of the author, we are coming to the end of the fourth great wave, and if we follow a similar pattern to the first three, then we can take a glimpse at what may follow.

There are a number of problems with this approach, mainly that history doesn't repeat itself and that the world today is very dissimilar from the thirteenth century. However, as great bouts of inflation tend to be either aided or impeded by acts of human folly, it does provide some pointers to where we should be looking. For example, a feature of the late stages to the great waves are persistently falling real wages and the growth of acute levels of wealth inequality. I guess that we tick that box. Following on from that is a period of acute social strife. I guess that we are heading in that direction too. What then follows is a crisis of some sort, followed by a period of relative calm. If the model is correct, we have that to look forward to.

In the past, wars have been a catalyst for the crisis, occasioned by governments over-borrowing. That seems quite close to where we are today. The United States is engaged in a sequence of never ending wars, all funded by debt. What happens if the US were to default on its debt? The book suggests that the result wouldn't be pretty and even though I live half a world away, the fallout - possibly literally as well as metaphorically - would be felt by me. That makes me feel uncomfortable.

It should be said that this is not the only grand model of historical progress. The book should be read as such. It complements other grand theories and has a place within a structure of ideas. As we live through a bout of acute inflation, it is only natural that this work will rise in importance. However, it only provides a part of the story. It says little abut productivity shifts, or investment patterns, or social relations. We need to look elsewhere for those. However, these other aspects cannot be fully understood without this inflationary backdrop. It is too important a part of the whole story.

The book is a challenging read. It is not written in an academic style, but it is written by an academic. It has great scholarship, which can, at times, lead the author to being relatively obtuse. It is hard work at times, but it is worth the effort because, when enlightenment does arrive, we instinctively know that we have read something important. That's why I liked the book.

[Van Decoteau · Rating 5 out of 5]

Despite its rather dry and uninspiring title, this is a truly engaging piece of historical writing, one that seamlessly weaves together narrative explanation with quantitative analysis--there is a a graph on nearly every other page of text laying out data marshaled in support of the argument that the post-medieval history of the western world can be divided into 4 distinct periods of rising prices, each culminating in a world-historical crisis then shortly followed by a period of gradual price equilibrium and corresponding social cultural florescence. Using clear, exhaustive research, the author tracks these 4 distinct price revolutions, i.e., periods of rising inflation, and maps them onto: the calamitous European 14th century and its corresponding period of equilibrium, the Renaissance; the 17th century European crisis of famine and religious wars and its corresponding period of equilibrium, the Enlightenment; the 18th century period of national revolution and its corresponding period of equilibrium, the Victorian Age; and finally, the long, still-ongoing long price revolution of the 20th century with equilibrium point still undetermined.

What is illuminating about the book is not only the correlation of periods of rising prices to periods of social unrest and calamity, but also his critique of strict monetarist explanations for inflation, an argument that I found surprisingly compelling given my sympathies for the monetarist position. To those not familiar with this topic, monetarist theory argues that inflation is primarily a phenomenon driven by every government's propensity to print money and devalue its currency to cover the costs of fiscal deficits. While Fischer doesn't dismiss the monetarist argument, he makes a research-based case that increased government spending and currency devaluation always occurs some time after the initial rise in prices, which is always seen first in the food and energy sectors and are driven primarily by the intersection of accelerated population increase and the relatively inelastic limits of food, fuel, and housing production.

Fischer goes on to draw even further interesting implications from his analysis of historical price data, which I won't go into in this review. Needless to say, most of it is truly thought-provoking, even at those points where I disagree, when, for instance, he advocates for the use of temporary price controls to combat rapid upwards price fluctuations as opposed to raising fed rates.

Overall, an eye-opening, perspective-changing book.

[Bernard English · Rating 5 out of 5]

​​​
Can't say enough good things about this important and fascinating book. And I guess neither can others--the first two pages list 30 endorsements, more than I recall printed in any book I've ever seen. The book has much theoretical value in clearly identifying four great waves (not cycles, as the author emphasizes) and seven models and/or explanations used to explain inflation: (1) monetarist (2) Malthusian (3) Marxist (4) rhythms of agricultural production (5) neoclassical economic (6) ecological and (7) historical. Since the monetarist model is perhaps one of the dominant models, I'll just point out that he debunks it as being the primary cause of inflation since the timing of inflationary periods doesn't always fit the increase in money supply very well. A great example is from the 16th century about which Fischer writes "American treasure could not have been the first cause of a price-revolution. Prices began to go up as early as 1489, many years before American silver and gold arrived in Europe."

He proposes his own causal model, autogenous change which hinges on contingency and choice. Though convincing, it seems quite similar to a straight historical model. Fischer makes it clear that many models work for contemporary periods in which they were developed and not for others so they all have something valuable to add to the study of inflation.

The book is far more than just a theoretical tract. Its greatest interest to me was in how the author ties price revolutions to social problems. In some sense he adds a long-term perspective and support to the conclusions of Pickett and Wilkinson's ​fantastic ​The Spirit Level: Why Equality is Better for Everyone which only looks at recent data. Some of the details are given in the ​Great Wave's ​appendices which shouldn't be missed. These include "Returns to Labor: Real Wages and Living Standards," "Measures of Wealth and Income distribution," "Price Revolution and Inequality," "Price Revolutions and Price Disintegration," and "Price Revolutions and Personal Violence." All so relevant to our times​ to our times of increasing inequality​.
Appendix O gets back to theory with a criticism of the social scientists' obsession with theory-framing and theory-testing. In contrast, as Fischer writes, the purpose of his project is descriptive.

​I should just add that despite the long sweep of time he covers, there are plenty of fascinating details given and the book is just plain fun to read.

[Hoofar · Rating 3 out of 5]

I had this book for a while and stopped reading after the first 50 pages. It's not an exciting book to read even if you are a history nerd like me. One day, by accident, I found and read paul krugman's Pop Internationalism. And that was a super easy one-week read and made me want to go back and re-read this book. I think that's the way to read it.

This is a +500 page book, heavy read with lots of plots, unique historical observations & theories to expand on each one. The original base idea is simple & makes sense: price-revolution & high inflation is (usually) followed by a war crisis until everything, including wages and prices, finds a new equilibrium. David Fischer studies Europe for the past seven centuries and identifies four of these cycles back to back and each time there is a lot of references as he tells the story. Every idea & theory by itself is generously & clearly described but he doesn't care much to explain his thought process. He is overfitting at times and there are many social, cultural and economic ideas that he overextends with too much conviction and little doubt. The connection between different ideas is missing in the book, which would probably add another 500 pages I understand but he doesn't even care to question anything he says and towards the end you'll see he has a big model with little prediction to give away.

[Benji · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fascinating. This book takes the long view and that raises big questions about the fundamental economic assumptions of our time. For example, why on earth do we think 2% annual inflation is desirable and why do we gear our whole fiscal and monetary apparatus towards meeting that rate, given some of the most prosperous times in history (e.g. Rennaissance, Enlightenment, Victorian era) had stable prices and some of the most unstable times in history experienced persistent inflation?

I enjoyed the author's exploration in the last annex about theory-driven analysis vs observing and establishing the facts. Generally he does a great job of taking an unbiased view and not subscribing to any one theory. He lays them all out and explains how some of them have utility, but none of them perfectly fit the empirical data.

I'd love to see an updated version of this book now we're in 2025. Asset prices have soared even higher, inequality has grown, sovereign debt has expanded to even greater heights and now we're seeing birth rates collapsing, welfare states straining and political upheaval. Boomers basically defined recent economic history in the West. What happens as they die?

[CD · Rating 3 out of 5]

The quantification of history.

A work that covers sociology, economic, political science, and most of the social disciplines along with history. Both a weakness and a strength in this particular work.

Some of the analysis is dated. The writing on inflation is overly reliant on the pre Neo-Keynesian models of the inflation phenomena. Attempts by the author to clarify the liberal/conservative trends in this crucial area are weak.

The price wave (trends) as a rhythmic or cyclic (though the author tries to discount this) behavior is dependent upon overly fussy definition of time frames. If viewed over a wider range or with different statistical tools, (stats the boon and bane of modern econ) a different picture might emerge.

That there exists the volume of historical data about pricing (not really costs) is the true contribution of this work. The bibliography and notes are great resources if many of the conclusions drawn have flaws.

Could have been a much better and more readable work with minor alterations. This type of analysis has a a tendency to become quickly dated. The data and historical records are not the problem, just the details of the conclusions.

[Patrick · Rating 5 out of 5]

On of the most intriguing books I’ve ever read. The topic “history of European inflation” seems boring but is actually super interesting. The book is extremely well researched, ans you always feel that the author has lots of evidence to support the facts. The only issue might be the 20th century, where is very clear about where the authors bias lies. He admits this in the first chapter, stating that we understand the late 20th century prices the least due to the sheer amount of data and the recent attribute of it.


This made me look at history a totally different way and even made me more pessimistic about the future, given the trends of previous centuries.

I would recommend to anyone interested in general economic history

[Tyler Hart-Loi · Rating 5 out of 5]

Insightful book from an academic whose pursuits led him to seeing the world in price revolutions and equilibriums dating back to the 1200’s. The French Revolution 1780-1812 period was thought provoking with debt from the central government.

In Italy’s strong rise it was also interesting. As an American with Irish and Slavic roots I was blissfully unaware that Italy and its city states were the world superpower for much of the 1200-1600’s period. This book really helped put the Medici banking family and industry in Venice into a timeline that was clear to understand as formal education in the US rarely goes back to the pre-1940’s let alone 1200’s in such detail.

A great read coming off of tragedy and hope by Carroll Quigley.

[Joe · Rating 4 out of 5]

It's quite an undertaking to try and condense the study of such a subject into a single book. Its difficult for historians to tackle economic subjects as they are different disciplines and yet I do find Fischer's thesis here very interesting. He pulls together a vast quantity of data from nearly a millennia of sources. His argument is somewhat compelling that history is a series of waves of price increases leading to crisis and then equilibrium afterwards.

I'm a little suspicious of some of his conclusions knowing the ideological bias of academia but overall an excellent book replete with much data and many sources. Glad I read it.

[TMeadows · Rating 3 out of 5]

Fischer does a great descriptive job detailing the price history, pulling together research from all across the historical spectrum to weave an epic narrative of historical rhythms. It's not perfect- especially the last section of the book, "The Crisis of the Late 20th Century" seems like he's making a classic historical mistake of imposing the events he's studied onto the event's he's living- but it is very valuable. As it turns out, inflation is not everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.

[Carl · Rating 4 out of 5]

A fascinating study of price fluctuations on basic necessities since the Renaissance! There have been four great waves of price inflation, each one leading to increased inequality, instability & social revolution followed by periods of stability, equalization, & progress. Signs indicate we are presently in the 4th wave of instability but the author feels the outcome cannot be predicted. Good stuff which nicely complements Piketty's work!

[Andy C. · Rating 5 out of 5]

First, don't be put off by the thickness of the book. The narrative is in the first half. Second, it is always a good practice to study the table of contents first, moreso with this fine book. Then read it and be amazed.

[Jonathan · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the most important economics books I have read. Fischer's analysis of price revolutions challenges all previous theories of inflation dynamics while being incredibly interesting, timely, and well-written. A must-read for any aspiring economist or economic historian.

[Baldur · Rating 5 out of 5]

A brilliant book, I have seldome read one book which is so eye opening. It is probably one of the best book to understand the deep mechanics of history,poltics and society. A must read for everyone who wants to comprehend the world.

[John Ollerton · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting to see events in history illuminated by financial inflation. The abbey in St Albans got a mention in history during the meagre times insisting that all grain was milled by them at exorbitant cost.

[Merili · Rating 4 out of 5]

Huvitav ülevaade ja uus vaade teada-tuntud ajaloosündmustele, aga raamat on välja antud 1996 ja autor pigem ootab hindade stabiliseerumist (või suurt ühiskondlikku kriisi) kui veel aastakümneid kestvat inflatsiooni.

[Sjors · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well-researched, well-presented study of the 4 great historic price shocks from the Middle Ages to the 21st century. Generally speaking, price waves occur when growing organic demand runs into hard supply constraints - with devastating consequences. This was an interesting read.

[Leo Svoboda · Rating 4 out of 5]

Excellent book focusing on the underlying currents of inflation and its impact on society. Especially interesting in light of the current geopolitical environment.

[David · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent review of price waves and their impact on history.

Perhaps a bit esoteric for the general reader but deeply informative.

Rating: 5 out of 5

[Yokusun Basi]

The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History by David Hackett Fischer (1999)

[Scott · Rating 2 out of 5]

Interesting history, but his leftist economics are barely vailed. And the analysis ends in 1996, so VERY out of date regarding any current wave. Still, I didn't hate it.