Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

by Mike Chinoy

Excellent Book

Genres: History, Nonfiction

432 pages, Hardcover

First published August 5, 2008

Reviews

[Adrian · Rating 5 out of 5]

Journalist Mike Chinoy provides a detailed, readable, and highly informative account of the long running nuclear dispute with North Korea, starting with the 1992-94 crisis that was averted by Jimmy Carter's visit, the progress and understanding of the Clinton years that led to the Agreed Framework, and the near establishment of Diplomatic relations, the confrontation, rhetoric, and ultimately proliferation of the Bush years, and ultimately the mess the Obama Administration has inherited.
While the North's motivations cannot be accurately ascertained, it would appear that the ultimate driving force is the need for security. The DPRK began its nuclear program in the wake of the Western victory of the Cold War and the end of Soviet Support, a climate wherein many in the West viewed the collapse of the regime as inevitable. The understanding of security was almost sealed under Clinton, in the visit of Marshall Jo Myong Rok to the White House in October 2000, leading to the agreed declaration of no hostile intent, and Madeleine Albright's subsequent visit to Pyongyang. What followed was an Administration unwilling to disavow the use of force against the DPRK, and steadfast in its refusal to recognize the sovereignty of the country.
It becomes clear from reading that while former president George Bush had almost no opinion on North Korea before taking office, members of the administration such as Donald Rumsfeld, who led a commission calling for the abandonment of the Agreed Framework in the late 90s, and John Bolton, another long term critic of the Clinton era diplomacy, had hawkish designs on the DPRK long before September 11th.
The hawks in the Bush administration had designs on both the Agreed Framework, and the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty. North Korea was used as a posterchild for Missile Defense, and therefore had become a target of confrontation for Administration Hardliners.
We learn that the Agreed Framework was effectively frozen during Bush's initial month's in office, and gradually unraveled shortly after the "Axis of Evil" designation in the 2002 State of the Union, and effectively terminated following a dubious intelligence report that the North had a Uranium Enrichment program.
Most alarming is the rigid, confrontational approach of the Bush administration, refusing DPRK requests of direct talks, participating in the six party talks by only itterating of the DPRKs capitulation, and the sidelining and disenfranchisement of all the advocates of diplomacy, all the veterans of the Clinton talks, and anyone with a moderate line.
Veteran Korea hands such as Jack Pritchard were effectively muzzled by Administration hardliners and effectively disenfranchised from the process. Hardliners hoping to torpedo the process did so through the appointment of people such as John Bolton, and later Jay Lefkowitz to key positions in the negotiation framework. Indeed, Bolton is recurrent throughout the book, presented as one of the most truly determined individuals in his opposition to negotiations with the North, ranging from his workings at state, his 2003 denunciation of Kim Jong Il whilst in the South Korean capital, to his push for a tough line at the UN. NSC member and Bolton's successor at State, Bob Joseph is equally zealous, although his role in the process is not as significant as Bolton.
While his achievements may be in jeopardy, one cannot help but develop a sense of admiration for Christopher Hill. He is shown to be a man who was effectively fighting a two front war, dealing with the bellicosity and rigidity of the North Koreans on one front, and constantly fighting against the hardliners in the Bush administration who constantly sought to unravel the entire process. Hill took courageous steps, bypassing most of the diplomatic process, reporting only to his bosses Rice and Bush, and doing whatever he could to limit the machinations of hardliners, invariably found at the NSC, the Pentagon, the office of the Vice President, and to a lesser extent at State.
The ultimate sticking point is the Banco Delta Asia holdings of DPRK funds, which became a target of State Department hardliner David Asher who sought to extend the confrontation with the North to its perceived illicit activities. The assets which were subsequently frozen played a key part in unraveling the September 19th 2005 declaration, and created an impasse which led to the North's first Nuclear test in October 2006.
The current situation with North Korea is a state of limbo. The North has now tested a second nuclear device, restarted missile tests, and has threatened to weaponize its remaining plutonium. North and South tensions between the Koreas are also tense.
Chinoy also explores the complex dynamics of North Korean politics, which although unequivocally autocratic, nonetheless has certain constituencies that need to be appeased. The most important, and also the most troublesome, is the military. The military may view rapproachement with the United States as an existential threat, as it would erode the viability of the costly Songun "Military First" policy. Kim Jong Il requires the military's support for the anointment of his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, as heir apparent, and the 2009 nuclear test may have had more to do with the appeasement of this faction than anything else. However, no one, not even a veteran Korea hand like Chinoy, can be certain of the workings of the Hermit Kingdom.
Meltdown is not only an absolute must read for those interested in North Korea, it is valuable reading for anyone with an interest or stake in the workings of diplomacy. The very process of diplomacy is laid out from top to bottom, and as a Post Graduate who did his Masters on Diplomacy, one can confirm that this book contains the academic relevance of anything that could be found as course material on a post graduate degree.
Meltdown is an intricate, intriguing, informative, and utterly explosive examination of the workings of international relations. Essential reading for Korea enthusiasts, diplomacy enthusiasts, or anyone with a passing interest in world politics.

[Stephen · Rating 4 out of 5]

I recently re-read this in advance of the 2018 Singapore summit because the story of USA/DPRK relations is a winding history of false starts, mistrust, and bad faith on both sides. I wanted to refresh myself on the mistakes that were made in the 1990s and 2000s.

Mike Chinoy's book is the definitive history of Korea diplomacy during the Bush (43) administration, covering the collapse of the Agreed Framework, the halting progress of the six-party talks, and Kim Jong Il's eventual nuclear breakout. There are lessons aplenty here for anyone who is paying attention.

[Ann · Rating 4 out of 5]

So far, this book is interesting. Kim Jong Il is a strange and fascinating man. I only made it as far as G.W. Bush first days in office, during which he did some major damage... I had to return this book to the library, so I'll have to take it out again.

[Mark · Rating 4 out of 5]

Fasinating. Would be an interesting read for any political science student.