Arthur Laffer -- the father of supply-side economics and a member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board -- joins economist Stephen Moore of The Wall Street Journal editorial board and investment advisor Peter J. Tanous to send Americans an urgent We risk losing the exceptional standard of living that has made us the envy of the rest of the world if the pro-growth policies of the last twenty-five years are reversed by a new president. Since the early 1980s, the United States has experienced a wave of prosperity almost unprecedented in history in terms of wealth creation, new jobs, and improved living standards for all. Under the leadership of Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, Americans changed the incentive structure on taxes, inflation, and regulation, and as a result the economy roared back to life after the anti-growth, high-inflation 1970s. Now the rest of the world is following the American economic growth model of lower tax rates, more economic freedom, and sound money. Paradoxically, one country is moving away from these growth policies and putting its prosperity at risk -- America. On the eve of a critical presidential election, Laffer, Moore, and Tanous provide the factual information every American needs in order to understand exactly how we achieved the prosperity many people have come to take for granted, and explain how the policies of Democrats Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi can cause America to lose its status as the world's growth and job creation machine. The End of Prosperity is essential reading for all Americans who value our nation's free enterprise system and high standard of living, and want to know how to protect their own investments in the coming storm.
The entire book can be summarized like this: cutting taxes has produced enormous growth while tax increases have reduced human capital and constrained economic growth. This book tells the story of how Coolidge, Reagan, Kennedy, and Bush cut taxes to soak the rich and produce more economic growth. Laffer also tells the story of how leaders abroad did the same thing and had the same positive results. Regardless of what you think about Laffer and economists like him, this is the best defense of supply-side theory out there to read. Even critics of supply-side theory like Robert Reich have said the same thing.
This book can be a little dry unless you have a unique interest in how to dig the U.S. out of the 2011 recession and make it into the economic giant it once was. The steps to do so seem easy to do accept for the fact that little of our political culture seem to understand economics. Members of the United States House of Representatives, Senate and the President himself should read this book.
The book was written by economist Art Laffer, Stephen Moore and Peter Tanous. Laffer is famous for creating the Laffer curve. The Laffer curve represents the rate of taxation at which maximum revenue to the federal government is generated.
The steps outlined are simple. First, a low capital gains tax should be implemented because by doing this more revenue will flow into the federal treasury. The logic is easy to understand. When the capital gains tax rate is high people hold on to their stocks, when it is low they tend to sell more creating more tax money in the process. The authors have a chart to demonstrate this.
Second, eliminate the estate tax. Successful families businesses have been destroyed by this tax. It is estimated that this tax creates only 1 to 2 percent of federal budget receipts. One study suggests that it actually costs more to administer than it collects in tax receipts.
Third, free trade is essential. Of course, the U.S. is the world’s largest consumer so we usual run a huge trade deficit. A lot of people think this is bad. Their study found the opposite. The higher the trade deficit grows the lower the unemployment rate we get. What seems to happen is that more goods we buy from a particular country the more likely they will invest in building factories in our country. Toyota manufactures 80% of their star car the Camry in the United States with two factories located in the U.S. This is a good example.
The final and main idea is for the implementation of a flat tax to replace the graduated income tax. The author calculates that the flat tax rate will be 12.1 % for personal income and 12.1% for business income. This would render enough money to run the federal government. It would eliminate the social security tax, corporate profit tax, estate tax and gift tax. It would allow very few deductions as well. This system would minimize tax evasion. It also pointed that many countries have implemented the flat tax and it revitalized their economies.
They would also like to see less regulation which hampers business. They are a little sparse with which regulations to eliminate but do emphasize that Hong Kong has little regulation is an enormously productive city. A good example though presented is that global warming regulations are crippling the economy. It is believed that the U.S west coast off shore area is the American Saudi Arabia of oil deposits. This region has been banned from drilling even before the global warming nonsense started by the U.S. congress in 1982. Of course, more oil would render cheaper energy which would help the economy tremendously.
The authors provide a lot of examples which justify their ideas. I have read Robert Reich’s book "Aftershock" and think it is good but the program laid out in this book should be adopted first. Even Robert Reich agrees that this book is “influential and important.”
Laffer, Moore, and Tanous created a provocative title in, "The End of Prosperity". Good move, because it got me to pick up the book. I was expecting the book to be about our current economic crisis, and it is, but mostly it is a history lesson arguing the soundness of supply side economics. Boring? Actually no, it was, if such a thing is possible, an ecomonics page turner whereby the authors explain, in simple, convincing language why the supply side policies of the past created economic lift-off in America and are now doing the same in other countries and how demand-side Keynsian/socialist policies have invariably created dangerous mid-air stalls. In the last few chapters of the book, the authors contrast successful economic policy with current economic events in the United States. But by this time, they have no need to be dramatic because it becomes quite obvious that current economic policy, particularly higher taxes, will lead to an end to prosperity if they are not stopped. One wonders along with the authors why the country that has experienced so much success with supply side economics is now ready to turn its back on them.
A central premise of the book is that economic incentives matter. Negative incentives (where we are now) slash economic activity. Positive incentives (where we have been) grow the economy. The good thing is that in the internet information age, positive incentives can have a dramaticly swift positive effect on our ecomomy, but the bad thing is that negative incentives have the same swift effect.
The book was written in 2008 before the election of Mr. Obama. The authors note that policy has taken a turn for the worse under the Big Government policies of George Bush and his allies in Congress, but that these trends could be greatly accelerated under a Hillary Clinton or Barak Obama administration, particlularly if they are not moderated by Republican control of Congress.
I recently went to visit the National Debt Clock in Mid-Town Manhattan. As our national debt rapidly closes in on 15 trillion, it is apparent that Laffer, Moore, and Tanous have written what amounts to a book of prophesy.
By reading this book, you'll have a much clearer picture of what is at stake.
I'm on page 144 and I don't know if I'm going to be able to make it through. They have so skewed the statistics to try and prove their point that it's hard to objectively analyze their thesis. Clearly, lower taxes contribute to economic activity, but they suggest that it was some kind of magic employed by Reagan that continued on for 25 years. They discount the fact that Bill Clinton raised taxes and the economy continued to boom as being kind of coincidental. It only worked because he did other, "kind of supply-side" things. But then they suggest that Bush's tax cuts (although much smaller than Reagan's) all of a sudden once again brought about huge new amounts of revenue, particularly capital gains tax revenue, due entirely to their supply-side magic. Nowhere do they point out that this was the midst of the hugest housing bubble in history, with people buying and selling like crazy, creating huge amounts of capital gains. They also don't mention (I guess the book was finishing right as the devastation was starting) that we were running headfirst into the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression. They suggest that middle-class incomes are doing fine through this whole process but so far have not mentioned once the doubling of wealth enjoyed by upper income individuals. I recognize that tax policy plays an important part in our economic development. I hoped to be able to get some kind of relative analysis of the part taxes play in economy but all they wanted to do was prove that their supply side economics was the most incredible formula ever devised and the only one that should ever be used. Their bias is so huge I can't get by it to get any useful information. What was the economic effect of the Baby Boomers reaching their prime earning years in this 25 year period? In fact, now, having written this down, I have decided to go ahead and give up on this one and go on to something more informative.
Arthur B. Laffer, Stephen Moore and Peter J. Tanous give Ronald Reagan full credit for laying the foundation for decades of U.S. prosperity. They see today’s government programs as a return to the worst of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society. The authors find it strange that the U.S. is adopting a more European model just as many European countries are moving more toward Reaganomics. They suggest a different path to good fortune: Get government out of the way of individual, entrepreneurial opportunity. If this reasoning persuades you, pay particular attention to their chapter describing how California, once the most prosperous U.S. state, became an economic basket case – a decline that the authors blame on the expansion of government spending, regulations and taxes. Laffer’s advocates, including those who also favor a flat tax, see this book as an instant classic; his opponents have already dismissed it. getAbstract suggests it to those seeking a conservative take on current economic policy.
The End of Prosperity: How Higher Taxes Will Doom the Economy--If We Let It Happen is a well-written book, filled with charts and graphs, is a great introduction to the principles of the Laffer Curve, the dangers of high taxes and the folly of many of the proposals that the Democrat leadership in the House, the Senate and Mr. Obama (and some Republicans) are proposing. On page 261 these foolish proposals and policies are laid out in detail. Hopefully, after having read the rest of the book the folly of those policies should be clear.
Prior to that, the book explains the wisdom of low tax policies. The authors go through the recent history of the United States (from Hoover to Bush43) and demonstrate their principles in action. A fantastic introduction to conservative economic policy for the layman.
Dead on, smart economics information. I am not a big economics girl but I love the way that Art Laffer writes. He is a master at writing in a way that a layperson could grasp simple economics.
The End of Prosperity is a very realistic look at the current bleak economic situation facing United States since Great Depression of 1929. The reform that was created as a result of this Great Depression; the creation Security Exchange Commission, relentless efforts for corporate transparency, and greater information for investment decisions fired backwards to destroy these very ideals that upheld the free enterprise system in a strange twist of events.
Mortgage lending companies were not setup as traditional depositories or brokers, but as real estate investment trusts (REITs). It is a corporate form for developers to avoid corporate income taxes. REIT pays out the earnings to shareholders who pay personal income taxes on them. Since they are publicly traded, it avoids regulators. But it comes under SEC which focuses mainly on insider trading, and corporate transparency, and not on mortgage lending. The lenders and borrowers used this little gap to mismanage the mortgage industry. There is another side to this story; for years congress commanded banks through Community Reinvestment Act to lower credit standards, and make more loans to low-income borrowers who could not payback mortgages.
The principal author (Arthur Laffer), a strong proponent of supply side economics provides an insightful review of the excesses of Keynesian dynamics that paved the way for governmental intrusion; higher taxes, manipulation of interest rates through control of monetary flow (through federal reserve) thereby weakening the dollar, and currently large scale bailouts of failed economic systems, that is in excess of one trillion dollars, and not to mention the national debt of $10.6 trillion. Just the interest payments on these vast amounts scare most nations. Major investment firms, mortgage-lending industry, and commercial banks are being bailed out, and even the major auto industries are seeking governmental intrusion to fix the financial problems during the merger process. States such as California is almost bankrupt is also looking for bailout. The question is who is going to pay for these excesses; the magic word is, "the taxpayer." Things get worse in a world of chaos; cry for economic equality and fairness in taxing system is making the politicians to twist the economic system to their advantage and enhance electability to the public office. One of the common complaints is that rich are getting richer and they are paying less tax: This has a strange meaning and consequence because rich pay more taxes and increase the governmental revenue (see Table 7-1, and Figure 7-3.)
Monetary control by Federal Reserve to curb inflation, and lower taxes, provide a model for economic growth (see for example Figure 7-1) that emphasizes free-market capitalism as the engine of prosperity and not by government intervention. The four killers of economic prosperity are; trade protectionism, tax hike and reckless government spending, regulation (governmental intervention) as opposed to deregulation, and monetary control to Federal Reserve.
The first chapter provides a quick review of economic growth and prosperity from Reagan years to Clinton's presidency (chapters 5 & 6; also see Figures 5-1, Table 5-1, Figure 6-1,). The imminent economic danger includes; unemployment, lower wages, lower-housing prices, inflation, recession, and too much governmental intervention. The lower-income households are most affected by trade barriers and import-tariffs. Made in India, and China where the labor is cheap results in less cost to American consumers and hence can afford varieties of household goods and appliances. Global competition also keeps the prices down.
The benefits of lowering taxes include the take home wages for an average person is higher, and his spending and investing will be higher (see Figure 5-5), the government revenue is higher because of higher volume of spending by the consumer (Figure 3-1 to 3-3, Table 3-1). Lastly the rich and wealthy would like to invest at home where the tax policies are favorable (see Figures 5-2 and 7-2). When the investor-employers earn more, with less tax, the wages of their employees will rise. The impact of higher taxes and governmental intervention reduces economic growth (Figure 4-1), and deregulation has significant impact on prices (Figure 4-2). Impact of higher taxes is well discussed in chapters 4, 13 and 14: Chapter 14 also discusses the impact of increased regulation and anti-immigration policies on economic growth. The last chapter provides some sound advice on your personal investments for years ahead.
A fair and extremely intelligent representation of the state of this country, "The End of Prosperity" offers a look, or prediction rather, that is already unfolding in the United States, bringing the entire country into an irrecoverable economic despair. It is frightening to read about aspects of the tax system that the three authors explicitly warn against, and see the policies by the left being currently enacted. If only people read this and understood that, no, taxing the rich more will not help, and no, the middle class will not get a tax break, and no, the goal of equality cannot be achieved by taxing some more and more less. The idealistic views of the left are utterly proven wrong.
Of course, the political right's policies are also put to shame, arguing against the restrictive immigration policy and excessive spending of the Bush years, however a significant emphasis is placed on those who appear to be heralded as the economic saviors, Kennedy and Reagan.
A high school econ 101 student who is just jumping into all of this economic policy awareness, this is an excellent read, although a little outdated, discussing what *might* happen if Obama is elected president (shot in butt on that one). It's a very ominous but intelligent warning to the country concerning our economic future.
Two very experienced, practical economists presage the economic downturn of October 2008, and the mistakes of the Bush and Obama administrations reacting to it.
Steve Moore, senior editor of the Wall Street Journal and Dr. Arthur Laffer, advisor to President Reagan and namesake of the Laffer Curve, lay out the theory and the empirical dimensions for the conservative case.
It has always seemed to me that liberals want to redesign the society (including the economy) to match the way they think people should be. Conservatives want to redesign it to match the way they think people are.
In that vein, this is a frightening book. It is very persuasive, and it seems clear as glass to me the economy will suffer for generations from the changes we are making today.
If you're a liberal, I urge you to read this book with an open mind. These two guys disagree with you; if you read their book refusing to listen, you'll miss a great opportunity to learn.
Despite being largely about economics I actually found this book to be a page turner. It was written well for the average Joe to grasp but it didn't shy away from introducing more complicated economic terms and theories.
What was mostly helpful was the concise history of tax policy over the last half century (or so) and the outcomes that were derived from those policies. True, I am a die hard conservative, but I can't believe that people either unaware or unwilling to admit how disastrous certain tax (and spending) policies have been in the past. I would recommend this book to everyone so that perhaps their no nonsense approach to the matter might remove some of the doubt about how economies work.
A good sound look at how economic practices can help or harm the economy, from Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush's tax cuts that launched a wave of prosperity, to the protectionist tariffs and high taxes of the 1970s and the destructive socialism from Wilson to the New Deal and Great Society and now Obama's bailouts, proposed tax increases, and profligate spending. There is a solution that will fix or ameliorate many of the mounting problems, which many countries in Europe have successfully adopted: a flat or fair tax (he calculated that 12.1% income and business tax would equal current revenues, not counting for increases prosperity and collections due to the lower tax). This will help make America attractive for investment again, and restore waning prosperity.
I have always maintained there are two sides of the story. Surprisingly there are more things that I agree with this book than what I originally expected e.g. I'm in favor for a simpler/flat tax code (even though I would propose zero deductions), immigration reform, free trade,etc. I disagree with a couple of positions like death tax but overall a good book easy to read with several facts to back views. However, even though book praises policies in Ireland, Estonia, Russia, etc. when a global economic slowdown like we're experiencing no country goes unscathed.
Art Laffer does a fantastic job of relating the many issues that our current government is facing in terms of the economy. Laffer provides many sound arguments in favor of the Laffer Curve and low taxes. The statistics and data support his argument--lower taxes leads to higher government revenues. An entire week to read a book on taxes...amazing!!
Whether you agree with the principles or not, its a refreshing splash of cold water in the face during all the government bailout talk, in this time that "everyone is a Keynesian".
Clear restatement of basic economic facts that have been proven over and over. Clearly articulates the outcomes we can expect from the Obama/democrat socialists path.