Letters of the investment partnership run by Nicholas Sleep and Qais Zakaria. Has had long-term investments in companies like Amazon and Costco: 'catch some better waves and ride them to the shore'. On average, companies fail. Success encourages competition and capital. Investors tend not to believe in 'longevity of compounding'. Patience is hard. The market underestimates the very few companies that can compound earnings for a long period of time. Very few businesses can do it. Good case study on Walmart: turns out it was cheap for decades, the undervaluation persisted. If, in 1972, upon reading that year's twelve page annual report, an investor chose to make a purchase of shares, he could have paid over 150x the prevailing share price, a PE of over 1500x, and he would have still earned a 10% return on his investment to today. Prefers inactivity: inaction is deliberate and is easier said than done (certainly counter-culture in funds management). Believe their holdings have very long runways of growth ahead - stay out of the way. The decision not to do something is still a decision. Continually compare what they have in the portfolio with the alternatives, but often the new ideas don't compare favourably with what they already own. If you buy a compounding business, you limit the future decisions you need to make, and the risk of reinvesting what you have sold. Highlight the importance of sitting still and thinking: human mind trumps endless data collection. There is always more data that can be collected and reports reviewed in today's world. Refers to David Attenborough's response on being asked about seeing more of the world than anybody who has ever lived. He said 'well I suppose so... but the greatest naturalist who ever lived had more affect on our thinking than anybody, Charles Darwin, only spent 4 years travelling and the rest of the time thinking'. We are trained in capitalism for output maximisation - it does not teach slack: itineraries must be filled with meetings, school childrens' days must be filled with activities, borrowing capacity must be used, holidays are to be taken with blackberrys rather than books. Quotes Taleb: "having a stupidly busy schedule isn't a sign of being important, it means you have become insulated from the world." If you are too 'stupidly busy' to think, which part of the brain is making the decisions? Busy behaviour looks 'short-term efficient', but the cost is things are not being thought through. Buffett: when refusing to bet on golf: "if you are not disciplined on the little things, you won't be disciplined on the big things". Three competitive advantages in investing: informational, analytical, psychological. They believe their enduring advantages are psychological. Investors are typically burdened by social proof, availability bias, a lack of probabilistic thinking and lack of patience. "When we study truly great businesses we find that very often it has been simple human attributes that have lead to their success". Be wary of information overload. A person can never synthesise all the information available on a company. Prioritise what is most important and keep your time free to simply think. Success of a company over a long period of time can usually be brought back to a simple reason: the value proposition and a competitive advantage. Furthermore, they said they had come to appreciate the value in retreating a little from endless stock analysis and head out into the world with the expectation that what they learn through investing helps them outside the office, and what they learn doing other activities helps them as investors. Funds management is a simple business, But not an easy one - not easy to stay focused and disciplined and avoid things that steal time and attention. Question they ask of research is: 'does any of this make a meaningful difference to the relationship between the company and its customers? Two ways to build a successful company: (1) work very hard to convince customers to pay high margins - Colgate, Nike, Coca Cola model. (2) work very hard to offer customers low margins - Walmart, Costco, Amazon model. Concentration: top 10 investments made up 80% of the portfolio, with the largest holding 30% in 2009. Interesting structure: attempted to align remuneration with: low management fee, performance fee claw-back for underperformance. They also closed their fund to concentrate on investing, not marketing.
The letters gave a few good framework to think of businesses and investing. It had contemporary examples compared to Buffett's partnership letters (It was, after all, written about half a century later). Clearly Nick and Zak were heavily influenced by Buffett, but brought a contemporary outlook to businesses and successful business models.
There was also a clear shift from Cigar Butt investing of the Graham/Buffett era to investing in companies that are "good". It certainly did look like it needed much more patience than Cigar Butt investing.
A collection of letters written by Nicholas Sleep of the Nomad Investment Partnership to their investors from the partnership's inception in 2001 to closure in 2013. The letters highlight the philosophy and methodology used by Nomad to approach the problem of stock/company picking. The letters extensively discuss the many investing decisions made by Nomad over the 14 years - delving deep into understanding business models, success drivers, market psychology, capital allocation, incentive structures, and more.
The general approach taken by Nomad was of long-term, low diversification investments (30% of capital in one stock, 80% in ten stocks) with very low churn rates. The letters also provide great insights into effective client-end communication. I especially liked the heavy focus on analyses of business models, and market psychology.
This is very insightful read and it provides great deal of clarity why long term investment triumph most of time. This letter has been written from 2000-2013 while managing nomad investment fund. Some of the models shared here are very worthy of reading many times like 1- branching model 2-scale economics sharing model 3-Locker room model 4-Non-transitive model 5- skeletal structure model
other detail thought process on - 1-learning from investment mistakes, 2-tips to avoid those mistakes, 3-various kind of misjudgment we fall in trap while investing & 4 some thoughts on momentum investing. 5 case for slack 6 comparative advantage 7 diversification
we are looking for businesses trading at around half of their real business value, companies run by owner-oriented management and employing capital allocation strategies consistent with long term shareholder wealth creation.
book “Where are the customers yachts?”: “When there is a stock-market boom, and everyone is scrambling for common stocks, take all your common stocks and sell them. Take the proceeds and buy conservative bonds. No doubt the stocks you sold will go higher. Pay no attention to this – just wait for the depression which will come sooner or later. When this depression – or panic – becomes a national catastrophe, sell out the bonds (perhaps at a loss) and buy back the stocks. No doubt the stocks will go lower still. Again, pay no attention. Wait for the next boom. Continue to repeat this operation as long as you live, and you’ll have the pleasure of dying rich”.
The crucial difference is how they are recorded in the accounts. Sale leases require the leased asset to be booked atype s if sold outright, in effect bringing forward revenues and profits. In contrast, payments under an operating lease are booked incrementally over the lease term.
41% of assets are invested in “difficult to copy” franchises such as TV stations, newspapers, magazines or a motorracing track; 31% of the fund is invested in asset backed businesses such as hotels, casinos, conglomerates or those companies where balance sheet cash forms a large portion of the current valuation; and finally 22% of the fund is invested in deep value work outs where profitability is temporarily depressed, and where the firm has sizeable amounts of debt. In aggregate these inves tments are priced in the market at around 50% of what we believe the businesses to be worth
Mr. Munger invested, is CocaCola, which in the mid 1980s had become a poorly defined conglomerate including a shrimp farm, winery, film studio and shudder to think, even owned its own bottli ng plants! As the poorer businesses were cut away, to reveal the jewel that is the syrup manufacturing and marketing operation, the shares of Coca Cola rose over tenfold in the succeeding decade.
Souter is looking forward to spinning plates again.
Costco is one half of the wholesale club warehouse duopoly (with Sam's Club). marking up 14% on branded goods and 15% on private label.
Apparently Sinegal insisted on the standard mark up, arguing that if "I let you do it this time, you will do it again". The contract with the customer (very low prices) must not be broken.
Many retailers do not operate in such a way, and instead employ high-low price strategies, that is to say they take prices up and down in an attempt to influence store traffic.
We are always on the lookout for companies with corporate character that are pursuing strategies designed to create sustainable value. This is no mean f eat, and we work hard reading annual reports and proxy statements and interviewing management trying to answer the questions: what are returns on incremental capital and the longevity of those returns, are management correctly incented to allocate capital appropriately, and what is discounted by prices?
managers straightjacketed into geography, sector, style, market capitalisation or security type
the firm’s shares trade on Ofex (similar to the pink sheets in the US) rather than on the London Stock Exchange
could grow at around 10% per annum. Th e effect over five years will be to compound U$1 of value into U$1.62. This happy outcome would imply a return from p urchase price (50 cents) of around 26% per annum.
The best defense is to own enough of the company to influence the outcome.
Union Cement. This is the Philippines’ largest cement company
In our opinion, the massive overdiversificat ion that is commonplace in the industry has more to do with marketing, making the clients feel comfortable, and the smoothing of results than it does with investment excellence. At Nomad we would rather results were more volatile year to year but maximized our rolling fiveyear outcome.
Even though prices are generally high, the trick is to do the work today, so that we are ready.
commentators continue to use price to book ratios, price to earnings ratios or their modern equivalents such as EV to Ebitda, as a proxy for value. We all know that it does not mea n a thing. So why do we do it? Psychologists refer to simple rules of thumb as heuristics. In normal life heuristics generally work.
A study by Michael Goldstein at Empirical Research, a research boutique, claims that the probability of growth stock failure (company growth slowing) is as high as four in five over five ye ars and nine out of ten over ten years. And in the case of Dell, we would have been wrong.
To the value investor ask, “what is it about your approach that would have stopped you owni ng KMart for much of the last twenty years?” (K as measured by say price to book value –- Mart was a “cheap” stock, but a dreadful investment, recent performance notwithstanding), and to the growth investor ask, “what is it about your approach that would h ave stopped you selling WalMart?”
(there are 100 basis points in one percentage po int).
One of the best investing letters that I've read for long term investing. These letters discuss the stocks bought and sold by Nick Sleep's partnership over the years and the rationale behind them.
Just like Buffett’s letters, Sleep and Zak’s letters are investment gems while containing healthy doses of worldly wisdom.
I particularly enjoyed the insights on shared scale economics, reasons for business success (such as owner-managers, customer centricity, etc.), alpha creation from long-term orientation and lessons on running an investment partnership.
Thanks to Nick Sleep who recently uploaded the letters on his charity’s website. I am almost certain that I will be re-reading them (at least the highlights!) several times in the coming years.
This could be one of the greatest investors ever. His communication and focus on truth feels tangible. His humility shone in everything. As a PM myself, it made me dream of what I could become in both communication to his investors, performance, and clarity of insight.
business models incentive compensation capital allocation mistakes more mistakes even more mistakes lots on psychology and how to think lots on attitude.
I was visiting a friend's office and he introduced me to the people sitting in his little co-working space. One of them curtly introduced to me as: "Tim, he's a value investor".
"So who's your favorite value investor, Tim?" - "Nick Sleep." - "Never heard of him, but I like to read. Did he write anything?"
And not 2 minutes into this conversation I was presented with a "if you come back, I'll give you my personal copy of his letters" and when I came back, being all too sure Tim had long forgotten about me, there they were. Nothing could have made me happier.
It felt just like hitchhiking (my favorite type of activity to complement any vacation) feels to me: strangers helping you out for no good reason, just because they can. Faith in humanity restored.
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The book itself is a fantastic read on par with Warren Buffett's shareholder letters.
""" The criterion was for companies with no increase or decrease in shares outstanding in the last ten years. [...] We knew of two companies that would make the list [...] but were amazed that there were just five others in the US with a market cap above U$50m. [One was] Hershey Creamery, [a] business with reasonable economics, a low valuation and seemingly stubborn resistance to outside influence. So stubborn in fact that we found it difficult to obtain annual reports or proxy statements and resorted to asking the CFO for a copy only to be told "these are mailed out to our shareholders". How then might a potential investor form a judgment whether they would like to become a shareholder without the benefit of an anual report?
"It's a common complaint", came the reply.
This analytical Catch 22 may not be helpful, but it does reveal that some firms remain resolutely independent of mind. [...] As if to prove Groucho Marx right ("I do not care to belong to any club that would accept me as a member"), we have not given up on Hershey Creamery yet, if only to satisfy our curiosity. """
Nick Sleep and Zak worked at Marathon Asset Management and founded Nomad around 2006. This is the collection of their investor newsletters from 2002 to early 2014. Annualized return after paying management fee were more than 17% and they beat MSCI world almost every year by a huge margin.
It is not as much that they were such great investors, it is how they loved to share their thoughts. They showed intellectual integrity and didn't seem greedy.
A few more observations -
1. Nick shared their investing philosophies or mistakes and exlained the stocks in their concentrated portfolios. 2. They kept pushing the management fee down as AUM grew from around 1% to 10 bps 3. They didn't pay themselves any performance fee unless they delivered 6% every year. 4. They were playing long game and had a very concentrated portfolio. Top ideas include companies run by founders where scale benefits were shared with customers. 5. Innumerable business, psychology and investing nuggets means I plan to re-read soon.
One of clearest thinkers I’ve encountered. It is amazing how Nick took inspiration from Buffett and Munger and developed his own voice and approach to investing. His explanations on the Costco investment case and, more broadly, the benefits of the scale economies shared model, are amazing. There are many other gems in his letters, such as his own summary of Munger’s psychology of human misjudgment speech.
What a great read! So much knowledge on investing, business models, capital allocation and psychology (yup, that too!) is concentrated in theses letters. Great insights from the guys who have proved with their track record that investing can be simple and yet very lucrative, provided that you follow some proven tenets and by having the correct mental models.
It's an intellectual sensation. There is no other way around it. Reading books that talk about investments is a hard thing to do because there are very, very few incredible investors who are able to articulate their differentiated thoughts on a long term basis. Well done. I think I learned something uniquely helpful from this, dense reading?.
Delightful short letters about Nomad Partnership’s investing philosophy and psychology over a little more than a decade (2001-2014). If I have learned anything from them, it is to have more patience (the concept is constantly reiterated in their letters). They have a quiet confidence in what they do that is admirable (as well as the returns to back it).
Starts really well with insightful commentary on their investments in the early years. Reading their thoughts about individual stocks and their risks/potential is enjoyable. However, in the latter years of their partnership, the letters increasingly became philosophical and lacked objectivity and focus on their individual investments.
These letters were excellent. Their writing is so clear and crisp. Their maniac focus on scale economics shared is an excellent framework. Their partnership structure is so incredibly admirable. Simply put, they do everything the right way. You would be hard pressed to find better role models that are actually replicable.