What do you think?
Rate this book
The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed By Rapidly Advancing Technologies
The rate at which technology is changing our world--not just on a global level like space travel and instant worldwide communications but on the level of what we choose to wear, where we live, and what we eat--is staggeringly fast and getting faster all the time. The rate of change has become so fast that a concept that started off sounding like science fiction has become a widely expected outcome in the near future - a singularity referred to as The Spike.
At that point of singularity, the cumulative changes on all fronts will affect the existence of humanity as a species and cause a leap of evolution into a new state of being.
On the other side of that divide, intelligence will be freed from the constraints of the flesh; machines will achieve a level of intelligence in excess of our own and boundless in its ultimate potential; engineering will take place at the level of molecular reconstruction, which will allow everything from food to building materials to be assembled as needed from microscopic components rather than grown or manufactured; we'll all become effectively immortal by either digitizing and uploading our minds into organic machines or by transforming our bodies into illness-free, undecaying exemplars of permanent health and vitality.
The results of all these changes will be unimaginable social dislocation, a complete restructuring of human society and a great leap forward into a dazzlingly transcendent future that even SF writers have been too timid to imagine.
At that point of singularity, the cumulative changes on all fronts will affect the existence of humanity as a species and cause a leap of evolution into a new state of being.
On the other side of that divide, intelligence will be freed from the constraints of the flesh; machines will achieve a level of intelligence in excess of our own and boundless in its ultimate potential; engineering will take place at the level of molecular reconstruction, which will allow everything from food to building materials to be assembled as needed from microscopic components rather than grown or manufactured; we'll all become effectively immortal by either digitizing and uploading our minds into organic machines or by transforming our bodies into illness-free, undecaying exemplars of permanent health and vitality.
The results of all these changes will be unimaginable social dislocation, a complete restructuring of human society and a great leap forward into a dazzlingly transcendent future that even SF writers have been too timid to imagine.
384 pages, Paperback
First published February 1, 2001
8 people are currently reading
138 people want to read
About the author
Damien Broderick
147 books31 followersDamien Francis Broderick was an Australian science fiction and popular science writer and editor of some 74 books. The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction credits him with the first usage of the term "virtual reality" in science-fiction, in his 1982 novel The Judas Mandala.
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
September 11, 2023
WILL A TECHNOLOGICAL ‘SINGULARITY’ HAPPEN BY 2030, OR 2050?
Author Damien Broderick wrote in the first chapter of this 2001 book, “Around 2050, or maybe even 2030, is when a technological Singularity… is expected to erupt. That, at any rate, is the considered opinion of a number of informed if unusually adventurous scientists… I call it ‘the Spike,’ an upward jab on the chart of change, a time of upheaval unprecedented in human history… History’s slowly rising trajectory of progress over tens of thousands of years, having taken a swift turn upward in recent centuries and decades, quickly roars straight up some time after 2030 and before 2100. That’s the Spike… At the Spike, we can confidently expect that some form of intelligence (human, silicon, or a blend of the two) will emerge at a posthuman level.” (Pg. 12-13)
He outlines, “the world of the Spike will be marked by: *augmented human abilities, made possible by connecting ourselves to ships and neural networks that … can amplify our native abilities… *human-level Artificial Intelligences…. *DNA genome control… *nanotechnology machines… *extreme physical longevity…or even … immortality… *‘uploads’ or transfers of human minds into computers…*possible contact with galactic civilizations…” (Pg. 22-23) Later, he adds, “The date proposed by most of the scientists who advance the notion of an impending technological Singularity is around 2035…” (Pg. 31) But he does caution, however, “one great truth about trends is this: the father they’re projected into the future, the less reliable they are.” (Pg. 84)
He observes, “The Spike is not the Parousia. Some of the dead, however… might well be revived, if they’ve had the good sense to get their heads frozen. The living, too, might have a chance to enter a remarkable new kingdom, but it won’t be the Rapture. Nobody expects Jesus Christ to be there. You, on the other hand, might be. So might I. It’s not clear what sort of shape we’ll be in.” (Pg. 167)
He notes, “but even if we accept the arguments of those who regard the mind as something that grows as the brain and body grow… it does not follow that having your brain mapped into a computer is the key to endless life FOR YOU. Upload enthusiasts commit a central fallacy, one absolutely crucial if you’re planning to shuffle off this mortal coil in exchange for life as a supercomputer.” (Pg. 206)
He acknowledges, “Constraints on what can be achieved will remain, however, not easily to be breached. Repeated doubling fails sooner or later, because even if the researchers are Ais inside the world’s fastest computers, presumably they can’t advance to the next generation’s physical manufacturing technology in seconds. It takes an appreciable time to assemble minerals… and rebuild circuits. A superb AI can’t bypass the fundamental laws and limitations of physics…” (Pg. 271)
He asks, “Any tendency to worship the Singularity, then, must be resisted firmly. Yet, held in check, subject to scrutiny, might some measure of dread and wonderment in the face of the technologically sublime actually be appropriate? While we look toward the far, far distant closure of the cosmos and the ignition of a homegrown deity in the ashes of ruined stars, perhaps we might use the time---those many, many billions of years---to establish ourselves or our machine offspring among those starts in the aeons before their fall. This is, indeed, a prerequisite of both Dyson’s and Tipler’s projections, for mind must colonize the universe before it can be transcended.” (Pg. 312)
He wonders, “But why should technology abruptly falter in this fashion? Perhaps there is some technical barrier to improved miniaturization… On the other hand, natural selection has not managed to leap to a superintelligent variant of humankind in the last hundred thousand years, which implies that mutations in that direction are not common, or have associate deficits…” (Pg. 321)
He concludes, “The single thing I feel confident of is that one of these trajectories will start its visible run up the right-hand side of the graph within ten or twenty years, and by 2030 (or 2050 at the latest) will have put into question everything we hold self-evident. We will live forever; or we will perish most horribly; our minds will emigrate to cyberspace, starting the most ferocious overpopulation race ever seen on the planet; or our machines will Transcend and take us with them, or leave us in some peaceful backwater where the meek shall inherit the Earth. Or something else, something far weirder, and … unimaginable.” (Pg. 343)
This book may appeal to some interested in projections about the future.
Author Damien Broderick wrote in the first chapter of this 2001 book, “Around 2050, or maybe even 2030, is when a technological Singularity… is expected to erupt. That, at any rate, is the considered opinion of a number of informed if unusually adventurous scientists… I call it ‘the Spike,’ an upward jab on the chart of change, a time of upheaval unprecedented in human history… History’s slowly rising trajectory of progress over tens of thousands of years, having taken a swift turn upward in recent centuries and decades, quickly roars straight up some time after 2030 and before 2100. That’s the Spike… At the Spike, we can confidently expect that some form of intelligence (human, silicon, or a blend of the two) will emerge at a posthuman level.” (Pg. 12-13)
He outlines, “the world of the Spike will be marked by: *augmented human abilities, made possible by connecting ourselves to ships and neural networks that … can amplify our native abilities… *human-level Artificial Intelligences…. *DNA genome control… *nanotechnology machines… *extreme physical longevity…or even … immortality… *‘uploads’ or transfers of human minds into computers…*possible contact with galactic civilizations…” (Pg. 22-23) Later, he adds, “The date proposed by most of the scientists who advance the notion of an impending technological Singularity is around 2035…” (Pg. 31) But he does caution, however, “one great truth about trends is this: the father they’re projected into the future, the less reliable they are.” (Pg. 84)
He observes, “The Spike is not the Parousia. Some of the dead, however… might well be revived, if they’ve had the good sense to get their heads frozen. The living, too, might have a chance to enter a remarkable new kingdom, but it won’t be the Rapture. Nobody expects Jesus Christ to be there. You, on the other hand, might be. So might I. It’s not clear what sort of shape we’ll be in.” (Pg. 167)
He notes, “but even if we accept the arguments of those who regard the mind as something that grows as the brain and body grow… it does not follow that having your brain mapped into a computer is the key to endless life FOR YOU. Upload enthusiasts commit a central fallacy, one absolutely crucial if you’re planning to shuffle off this mortal coil in exchange for life as a supercomputer.” (Pg. 206)
He acknowledges, “Constraints on what can be achieved will remain, however, not easily to be breached. Repeated doubling fails sooner or later, because even if the researchers are Ais inside the world’s fastest computers, presumably they can’t advance to the next generation’s physical manufacturing technology in seconds. It takes an appreciable time to assemble minerals… and rebuild circuits. A superb AI can’t bypass the fundamental laws and limitations of physics…” (Pg. 271)
He asks, “Any tendency to worship the Singularity, then, must be resisted firmly. Yet, held in check, subject to scrutiny, might some measure of dread and wonderment in the face of the technologically sublime actually be appropriate? While we look toward the far, far distant closure of the cosmos and the ignition of a homegrown deity in the ashes of ruined stars, perhaps we might use the time---those many, many billions of years---to establish ourselves or our machine offspring among those starts in the aeons before their fall. This is, indeed, a prerequisite of both Dyson’s and Tipler’s projections, for mind must colonize the universe before it can be transcended.” (Pg. 312)
He wonders, “But why should technology abruptly falter in this fashion? Perhaps there is some technical barrier to improved miniaturization… On the other hand, natural selection has not managed to leap to a superintelligent variant of humankind in the last hundred thousand years, which implies that mutations in that direction are not common, or have associate deficits…” (Pg. 321)
He concludes, “The single thing I feel confident of is that one of these trajectories will start its visible run up the right-hand side of the graph within ten or twenty years, and by 2030 (or 2050 at the latest) will have put into question everything we hold self-evident. We will live forever; or we will perish most horribly; our minds will emigrate to cyberspace, starting the most ferocious overpopulation race ever seen on the planet; or our machines will Transcend and take us with them, or leave us in some peaceful backwater where the meek shall inherit the Earth. Or something else, something far weirder, and … unimaginable.” (Pg. 343)
This book may appeal to some interested in projections about the future.
May 29, 2009
If you want to know what the future has in store for the human race, this is the book to start with. It's also the book to recomend to aunties and grandmas once you have caught the bug: much better than Ray Kurzweil's more-authoritative-but-less-accessible book, The Singularity is Near, in that the people you recomend it to are likely to actually pick it up, start reading and probably read it all the way through.
January 15, 2009
Extremely thought provoking.
February 27, 2017
I think 'the spike' date has come and gone. Some things have changed, but it just goes to show how fraught the task of technological prophesy is.
Read
February 2, 20197 I
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews