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Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market
The next bull market is here. It’s not in stocks. It’s not in bonds. It’s in commodities –and some smart investors will be riding that bull to record returns in the next decade.
Before Jim Rogers hit the road to write his bestselling books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he was one of the world’s most successful investors. He cofounded the Quantum Fund and made so much money that he never needed to work again. Yet despite his success, Rogers has never written a book of practical investment advice–until now.
In Hot Commodities, Rogers offers the lowdown on the most lucrative markets for today and tomorrow. In 1998, gliding under the radar, a bull market in commodities began. Rogers thinks it’s going to continue for at least fifteen years–and he’s put his money where his mouth In 1998, he started his own commodities index fund. It’s up 165% since then, with more than $200 million invested, and it’s the single-best performing index fund in the world in any asset class. Less risky than stocks and less sluggish than bonds,, commodities are where the money is–and will be in the years ahead. Rogers’s strategies are simple and straightforward. You can start small–a few thousand dollars will suffice. It’s all about putting your money into stuff you understand, the basic materials of everyday life, like coal, sugar, cotton, corn, or crude oil. Once you recognize the cyclical and historical trading patterns outlined here, you’ll be on your way.
In language that is both colorful and accessible, but Rogers explains why the world of commodity investing can be one of the simplest of all–and how commodities are the bases by which investors can value companies, markets, and whole economies. To be a truly great investor is to know something about commodities.
For small investors and high rollers alike, Hot Commodities is as good as gold . . . or lead, or aluminum, which are some of the commodities Rogers says could be as rewarding for investors.
Before Jim Rogers hit the road to write his bestselling books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, he was one of the world’s most successful investors. He cofounded the Quantum Fund and made so much money that he never needed to work again. Yet despite his success, Rogers has never written a book of practical investment advice–until now.
In Hot Commodities, Rogers offers the lowdown on the most lucrative markets for today and tomorrow. In 1998, gliding under the radar, a bull market in commodities began. Rogers thinks it’s going to continue for at least fifteen years–and he’s put his money where his mouth In 1998, he started his own commodities index fund. It’s up 165% since then, with more than $200 million invested, and it’s the single-best performing index fund in the world in any asset class. Less risky than stocks and less sluggish than bonds,, commodities are where the money is–and will be in the years ahead. Rogers’s strategies are simple and straightforward. You can start small–a few thousand dollars will suffice. It’s all about putting your money into stuff you understand, the basic materials of everyday life, like coal, sugar, cotton, corn, or crude oil. Once you recognize the cyclical and historical trading patterns outlined here, you’ll be on your way.
In language that is both colorful and accessible, but Rogers explains why the world of commodity investing can be one of the simplest of all–and how commodities are the bases by which investors can value companies, markets, and whole economies. To be a truly great investor is to know something about commodities.
For small investors and high rollers alike, Hot Commodities is as good as gold . . . or lead, or aluminum, which are some of the commodities Rogers says could be as rewarding for investors.
272 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2004
140 people are currently reading
1441 people want to read
About the author
Jim Rogers
90 books228 followersLibrarian Note: There is more than one author in the Goodreads database with this name.
James Beeland Rogers, Jr. is an American investor and author, currently based in Singapore. Rogers is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). He has travelled around the world by motorcycle and car
James Beeland Rogers, Jr. is an American investor and author, currently based in Singapore. Rogers is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). He has travelled around the world by motorcycle and car
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 68 reviews
May 7, 2009
Anyone interested in commodity trading should read this book. It won't tell you when to buy, or when to sell (but who can tell you that?), but it outlines the basics of market fundamentals and encourages low leverage. On the other hand, it seems to assume that trading commodities is easier than it truly is and that everyone has pockets as deeep as the author.
November 5, 2010
I read “Hot Commodities” after first reading Jim Rogers’ book a “Bull in China”.
I am a China Market Consultant and I started reading “Hot Commodities” while helping a Futures Brokerage client enter the Greater China Market Place.
On a trip to Singapore I was able to meet with Mr. Rogers not only to get my books signed by him, but to also hear his view on the world of investing and where he thought it was going, I left his home excited to get back to reading his book and also to start studying for the Series 3 License. So with that said, this review might be slightly biased.
I found the book to be a well written easy to read introductory guide to the world of commodity investing. Jim Rogers takes a long term fundamentalist approach to investing, in the book Jim Rogers proves to us that fortunes are made by thinking independently from the crowd, finding opportunities and then making logical investment decisions.
In the book he does a beautiful job at telling us about political and other developments that affect commodities, he uses oil, gold, lead, sugar and coffee as examples.
He also makes some nice parallels with the stock market and commodities market, suggesting that commodities can be a useful diversification in our portfolios.
Over all I would say this book is a must read, the book gives us some great insights from an investing legend.
I am a China Market Consultant and I started reading “Hot Commodities” while helping a Futures Brokerage client enter the Greater China Market Place.
On a trip to Singapore I was able to meet with Mr. Rogers not only to get my books signed by him, but to also hear his view on the world of investing and where he thought it was going, I left his home excited to get back to reading his book and also to start studying for the Series 3 License. So with that said, this review might be slightly biased.
I found the book to be a well written easy to read introductory guide to the world of commodity investing. Jim Rogers takes a long term fundamentalist approach to investing, in the book Jim Rogers proves to us that fortunes are made by thinking independently from the crowd, finding opportunities and then making logical investment decisions.
In the book he does a beautiful job at telling us about political and other developments that affect commodities, he uses oil, gold, lead, sugar and coffee as examples.
He also makes some nice parallels with the stock market and commodities market, suggesting that commodities can be a useful diversification in our portfolios.
Over all I would say this book is a must read, the book gives us some great insights from an investing legend.
September 9, 2021
Easy and interesting read on the world of commodities. Highly recommended for aspiring investors, even if you do not plan to invest in commodities. Notes below. More like this can be found at www.libraryof.xyz
The book was published in 2004 by financier and world tourist Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros. Between 1970 and 1980, the fund had a CAGR of 46% versus S&P 500’s 4%. The fund years resulted in that Rogers could call himself financially independent by a good margin, after which he retired at the age of 38. He has since traveled around the world twice, once by motorcycle and once by car. The car trip has given him a place in the Guinness World Book on the topic “Most countries visited in a continuous journey by car”.
NEGATIVE CORRELACTION WITH STOCKS. During the 20th century, there were three bull markets in commodities; 1906–1923, 1933–1953 and 1968–1982. Over the past 130 years, equities and commodities have alternated in regular cycles lasting an average of 18 years. During the 1970s, commodities performed the stock market, but the following decade the outcome was the opposite. Between 1959 and 2004, commodities had a higher return, and slightly lower volatility, than the stock market. Rogers explains the negative correlation with the fact that when raw materials are cheap, companies can generally enjoy high margins. When commodities become more expensive, it hits the companies’ margins, which leads to depressed share prices.
ROGERS INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY INDEX. In 1998, Rogers began to worry about the valuation of the stock market and talked about investing in commodities and how the fast-growing Chinese market would act as a locomotive for commodity prices. Commodity prices were then, also adjusted for inflation, lower than at any time since the depression of the 1930s. He then created his own commodity index in which he also invested his capital ahead of the upcoming round-the-world trip. Rogers was right, between 1998 and 2008 commodity prices rose sharply. Since then, according to Rogers’ index, commodities have had a negative development until today [2021].
A FORGOTTEN ASSET CLASS. In 2004, the turnover on the world’s commodity exchanges was many times greater than on the stock markets. Oil had the highest turnover. Coffee has on most occasions qualified as the second most traded commodity, despite the fact that only 20% of the world’s population are coffee consumers. According to Rogers, commodities should not be ignored and he thought that he became a better equity investor with knowledge from the commodities sector. By understanding the mechanisms in the raw materials sector, an investor can better understand how they in the next stage affect everything from food producers to real estate companies.
BACK TO BASICS. When Rogers analyzes commodities, he goes back to business 101 – supply and demand. He uses the CRB Commodity Yearbook and studies supply, demand, how large the reserves are and whether there are producers in areas where there is unrest. He also examines which industry is in demand for the raw material and what substitutes there are if prices rise too sharply. In general, commodities perform well during times of high inflation.
TRADING COMMODITIES = TRADING FUTURES. There are three players in the commodities market: producers, buyers and speculators. The producers are the mining companies, the forest companies, and the oil companies. The buyers are the ones in the next step in the value chain who use the raw material. The speculators are the investors who bet on the commodity price, but who have no interest in using the commodity. The speculators therefore never trade in the futures during the last trading month, as they do not want to be forced to take deliver on a batch of commodities.
COMMODITIES > COMMODITY-RELATED COMPANIES. When financial advisers talk about commodity exposure, it is usually through commodity-related companies. However, Rogers believes that the raw material companies are significantly more risky than the raw materials themselves. This is also strengthened by a study from Yale which showed that commodities over time performed better than the commodity-related companies. One difference between commodity-related companies and commodities is that the former can go to zero, which is not possible for the latter. The former also depends on the quality of management and the company’s indebtedness.
A COMMODITY-BOOM CAN BE A BOOM FOR A COUNTRY. When strong periods in commodities begin, it has a positive effect on the commodity-strong economies in many respects. A profit-generating raw material industry seeps through the entire business community, which leads to generally good times and strengthened currencies. As prices for copper, lead and other metals rise, the consequence is that the economies of countries such as Canada, Australia, Chile and Peru are to expect good times.
The book was published in 2004 by financier and world tourist Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros. Between 1970 and 1980, the fund had a CAGR of 46% versus S&P 500’s 4%. The fund years resulted in that Rogers could call himself financially independent by a good margin, after which he retired at the age of 38. He has since traveled around the world twice, once by motorcycle and once by car. The car trip has given him a place in the Guinness World Book on the topic “Most countries visited in a continuous journey by car”.
NEGATIVE CORRELACTION WITH STOCKS. During the 20th century, there were three bull markets in commodities; 1906–1923, 1933–1953 and 1968–1982. Over the past 130 years, equities and commodities have alternated in regular cycles lasting an average of 18 years. During the 1970s, commodities performed the stock market, but the following decade the outcome was the opposite. Between 1959 and 2004, commodities had a higher return, and slightly lower volatility, than the stock market. Rogers explains the negative correlation with the fact that when raw materials are cheap, companies can generally enjoy high margins. When commodities become more expensive, it hits the companies’ margins, which leads to depressed share prices.
ROGERS INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY INDEX. In 1998, Rogers began to worry about the valuation of the stock market and talked about investing in commodities and how the fast-growing Chinese market would act as a locomotive for commodity prices. Commodity prices were then, also adjusted for inflation, lower than at any time since the depression of the 1930s. He then created his own commodity index in which he also invested his capital ahead of the upcoming round-the-world trip. Rogers was right, between 1998 and 2008 commodity prices rose sharply. Since then, according to Rogers’ index, commodities have had a negative development until today [2021].
A FORGOTTEN ASSET CLASS. In 2004, the turnover on the world’s commodity exchanges was many times greater than on the stock markets. Oil had the highest turnover. Coffee has on most occasions qualified as the second most traded commodity, despite the fact that only 20% of the world’s population are coffee consumers. According to Rogers, commodities should not be ignored and he thought that he became a better equity investor with knowledge from the commodities sector. By understanding the mechanisms in the raw materials sector, an investor can better understand how they in the next stage affect everything from food producers to real estate companies.
BACK TO BASICS. When Rogers analyzes commodities, he goes back to business 101 – supply and demand. He uses the CRB Commodity Yearbook and studies supply, demand, how large the reserves are and whether there are producers in areas where there is unrest. He also examines which industry is in demand for the raw material and what substitutes there are if prices rise too sharply. In general, commodities perform well during times of high inflation.
TRADING COMMODITIES = TRADING FUTURES. There are three players in the commodities market: producers, buyers and speculators. The producers are the mining companies, the forest companies, and the oil companies. The buyers are the ones in the next step in the value chain who use the raw material. The speculators are the investors who bet on the commodity price, but who have no interest in using the commodity. The speculators therefore never trade in the futures during the last trading month, as they do not want to be forced to take deliver on a batch of commodities.
COMMODITIES > COMMODITY-RELATED COMPANIES. When financial advisers talk about commodity exposure, it is usually through commodity-related companies. However, Rogers believes that the raw material companies are significantly more risky than the raw materials themselves. This is also strengthened by a study from Yale which showed that commodities over time performed better than the commodity-related companies. One difference between commodity-related companies and commodities is that the former can go to zero, which is not possible for the latter. The former also depends on the quality of management and the company’s indebtedness.
A COMMODITY-BOOM CAN BE A BOOM FOR A COUNTRY. When strong periods in commodities begin, it has a positive effect on the commodity-strong economies in many respects. A profit-generating raw material industry seeps through the entire business community, which leads to generally good times and strengthened currencies. As prices for copper, lead and other metals rise, the consequence is that the economies of countries such as Canada, Australia, Chile and Peru are to expect good times.
February 8, 2012
Prescient reading given the bull market in commodities in the 5 years since its writing. An enjoyable summary of the mechanics of commodities investing (although it is much easier in practice these days) and the bull case for commodities. I particularly enjoyed his section on China and the effects of its growth - being in China myself has only reinforced everything he has to say. I also enjoyed his thinking by commodity (sugar, coffee, gold and oil in particular) and found his arguments to be generally coherent and defensible. His case against gold in the long run is spot on (although he grudgingly holds a small amount as doomsday insurance; which has handsomely paid off as a result of the financial crisis).
I feel that many investors could gain by similarly forming simple coherent rationales based on underlying fundamentals (demand and supply in the case of commodities), understanding the historical record, and then diligently sticking to the strategy for several years. The same approach applies to stocks, real estate and just about every investment class ever invented. Jim Rogers himself has made a handy fortune and traveled the world twice on this simple approach (although the devil is in the detail, of course.)
Before rushing out to buy commodities, the reader should read Siegel's Stocks for Long Run - a convincing case on why stocks are generally a better investment than bonds and commodities (except in times of severe inflation - possibly on the cards in the not too distant future). The problem with commodities is that they don't provide an income stream and so miss out on the wonderful effects of compounding. That said nothing beats inflation and recession like a good commodity!
I feel that many investors could gain by similarly forming simple coherent rationales based on underlying fundamentals (demand and supply in the case of commodities), understanding the historical record, and then diligently sticking to the strategy for several years. The same approach applies to stocks, real estate and just about every investment class ever invented. Jim Rogers himself has made a handy fortune and traveled the world twice on this simple approach (although the devil is in the detail, of course.)
Before rushing out to buy commodities, the reader should read Siegel's Stocks for Long Run - a convincing case on why stocks are generally a better investment than bonds and commodities (except in times of severe inflation - possibly on the cards in the not too distant future). The problem with commodities is that they don't provide an income stream and so miss out on the wonderful effects of compounding. That said nothing beats inflation and recession like a good commodity!
August 30, 2024
This is a very easy reading book. 200 pages. 100 pages a day. Done in two days.
I'm a big fan of Jim Rogers. After listening to him on YouTube over many years I found out he wrote a few books back in the day. This is the first of his book I have read.
This book is terribly out dated. You can not expect yourself to make any money from anything he has written for a start. Between the year the book was first published in 2004 and today (2024) is twenty years. The world has changed tremendously and much of the book was making the case for a rising China and how her demand will drive the existing/coming bull market. The Chinese miracle is now coming to an end as well as the changing demographics. The level of sophistication of all the market players today will also eat any novice investor alive.
What I do like about this book is that it offered me a little more insight into Jim's way of thinking. His psyche. The book can be read like a story book on the commodities market.
A few useful things I felt was useful that I learnt:
1) The different commodities indices and their differences in weights determination
2) The existence of daily price limits and how that can impact traders wanting to get in/out of their trades. As well as a reminder of minimum tick sizes
3) The reason of why commodity bull/bear cycles can last so long
4) How supply and demand essentially impacts the prices of commodities
The book also made me aware Jim had written two other books:
1) Investment Biker (1994)
2) Adventure Capitalist (2003)
I intend to read these for entertainment in the foreseeable future
I'm a big fan of Jim Rogers. After listening to him on YouTube over many years I found out he wrote a few books back in the day. This is the first of his book I have read.
This book is terribly out dated. You can not expect yourself to make any money from anything he has written for a start. Between the year the book was first published in 2004 and today (2024) is twenty years. The world has changed tremendously and much of the book was making the case for a rising China and how her demand will drive the existing/coming bull market. The Chinese miracle is now coming to an end as well as the changing demographics. The level of sophistication of all the market players today will also eat any novice investor alive.
What I do like about this book is that it offered me a little more insight into Jim's way of thinking. His psyche. The book can be read like a story book on the commodities market.
A few useful things I felt was useful that I learnt:
1) The different commodities indices and their differences in weights determination
2) The existence of daily price limits and how that can impact traders wanting to get in/out of their trades. As well as a reminder of minimum tick sizes
3) The reason of why commodity bull/bear cycles can last so long
4) How supply and demand essentially impacts the prices of commodities
The book also made me aware Jim had written two other books:
1) Investment Biker (1994)
2) Adventure Capitalist (2003)
I intend to read these for entertainment in the foreseeable future
December 14, 2018
With Christmas money right around the corner, I decided that looking into investing may be a good idea. After all, I'll be going to college soon so I think it's wise to start saving some money. So, to learn a little bit more about the stock market and how it works, I decided to read this book. With texts, pictures , and diagrams, this book navigated me through finance in the modern world.
To start, this was a pretty difficult read. There is a pretty big learning curve, which I'm still working on. The terminology can be a bit confusing at times, so this book does take a bit of work to fully understand and grasp the material. But , I still learned quite a bit. So now , when the Christmas money arrives, Ill be able to turn a profit by investing my money into shares of a larger company. As an example, I'm going to start by buying chevron stock, a consistent and successful natural resource company.
I would recommend this book to anyone who is interested in finance. This book can better prepare you for life, and if you study it properly you could gain a nice added income from developing shares in the stock.
To start, this was a pretty difficult read. There is a pretty big learning curve, which I'm still working on. The terminology can be a bit confusing at times, so this book does take a bit of work to fully understand and grasp the material. But , I still learned quite a bit. So now , when the Christmas money arrives, Ill be able to turn a profit by investing my money into shares of a larger company. As an example, I'm going to start by buying chevron stock, a consistent and successful natural resource company.
I would recommend this book to anyone who is interested in finance. This book can better prepare you for life, and if you study it properly you could gain a nice added income from developing shares in the stock.
November 15, 2023
Apart from a sympathetic autobiographical piece and a comfortable chapter on the basics of the futures markets and trading, everything else in this book is very outdated. Jim has a number of strong ideas about market direction which, fair is fair, held true for the year or so after original publication (2004, updated 2007) but now no longer. Who would be a China-bull now, what with Mr. Xi's destructive market interventionism and the hollowed-out national banking system crippled with bad debt.
Jim presents his thinking on a number of main commodities, but for all that I find this analysis of supply and demand forecasts (for crude oil for example) lacking in depth and specificity. And no charts or figures.
This would have been a good book to read back in the day but not now. Would not recommend.
Jim presents his thinking on a number of main commodities, but for all that I find this analysis of supply and demand forecasts (for crude oil for example) lacking in depth and specificity. And no charts or figures.
This would have been a good book to read back in the day but not now. Would not recommend.
May 6, 2020
Excellent read for beginners that focuses on basic economics and history of commodities.
The book lays questions and fundamentals to look on how to determine demand and supply commodities around the world.
Jim Rogers also offers excellent investment vehicles to use to take advantage of skewed supply and demand trends.
Great read for anyone who is interested in the cause-affect relationship of everyday life on commodities.
The book lays questions and fundamentals to look on how to determine demand and supply commodities around the world.
Jim Rogers also offers excellent investment vehicles to use to take advantage of skewed supply and demand trends.
Great read for anyone who is interested in the cause-affect relationship of everyday life on commodities.
December 28, 2020
Hot Commodities felt more like a history lesson than anything else. It was definitely interesting, and there was a lot I learned! I wish there was more math and fundamental analysis in it. After reading it, I feel like I have a qualitative understanding of investing in commodities rather than a quantitative one like I should have, and I do not feel prepared enough to invest in commodities. Oh, well, I guess I'll read an additional book.
August 30, 2022
Great overview and commodities pitch. A little dated (now 2022) in that his fund is harder to track down now and his bull market (laid out in the book) has played out and we could now be approaching a new bull market. Leaves the reader with basic equipment to approach commodities but there is still plenty to learn and be exposed to. The book is a very quick read and easy to access. It's the next step that will be difficult for the ambitious reader.
April 30, 2018
A very lightweight big-picture introduction to trading commodities that is easy to read. Introductory material, nothing profound. Noparticular trading tips, just a great and fun tour of what happens in the world of commodities, some historical perspective, and things to consider when doing your research.
December 18, 2020
Easy read that offers some basic insights into world of commodities. It is an eye opener to new opportunities for investments especially in the post covid world.
Entry level reading but I wouldn’t start trading commodities straight after reading this book.
I wish there’s an updated version as this one is more than 10 years old?
Entry level reading but I wouldn’t start trading commodities straight after reading this book.
I wish there’s an updated version as this one is more than 10 years old?
Read
April 28, 2023من فصل اول کتاب رو خواندم. متاسفانه کتاب از آن دست کتاب های مورد علاقه من نیست. توضیحات و استدلال های کتاب در ارتفاع پایینی هستند و تصویر بزرگ را ارایه نمیدهند. یعنی شما بعد از خواندن یک مبحث در انتهای متوجه نمیشوید که آن مساله چطور کار میکند.نوشته ها عمدتا حالت قصه و پر کردن صفحات با توضیحات کیفی است. بنابر این از خواندن بقیه کتاب منصرف شدم
July 6, 2024
Obviously dated, enthusiastic, more than a little misleading and self serving.
But a pleasant and fast paced introduction if one knows nothing about commodities markets, which was certainly the case for me.
Will be looking for a slightly more neutral and much more recent book or more likely papers.
But a pleasant and fast paced introduction if one knows nothing about commodities markets, which was certainly the case for me.
Will be looking for a slightly more neutral and much more recent book or more likely papers.
May 17, 2018
Interesting writer, short but sweet book and a good intro to commodities investing. Most important dynamics are supply and demand. Wish there was further practical advice on constructing a commodities portfolio
September 6, 2020
This is a good book to understand the basics of Commodity investing. He goes over several examples and explains some of the rules of investing. After reading it I feel I understand commodities much better, however, I would still need need to see more up to date examples.
January 11, 2021
If you ever wonder why you should learn about commodity investing no matter what asset class you invest. this book will teach you importance of commodity in financial world in very easy language and very short period of time. every one ignore commodity in face of technology.
February 16, 2023
Entertaining read, though a bit dated. Pay attention to the pace of change in supply/demand, cycles are long, market can remain irrational than you can remain solvent. Typical negative correlation b/w commodities and equities.
January 26, 2024
A good introduction for beginners to understand the supply-demand dynamics of several important commodities. Not very informative if you already have several years of experience in commodity investing.
May 12, 2024
After having read the book, I can give it only two stars at most. No wonder that the book has not been updated because the world did go against his visions in every aspect. Trading commodities is risky due to their relentless volatility. At least, I expected the author to be logically less biased on his proposition.
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November 3, 2024Rogers is a brilliant self promoter and provides great one-liners in any interview, but peel below the surface and I find chasms that need to be filled with more substance to convince me of his arguments.
August 24, 2017
Fact based. Given useful detail and statistic.
September 11, 2017
now dated
April 9, 2018
Good book even for those you are not interested in investing in commodities. Good historical account of commodities and can help in understanding dynamics of market, even for equities.
February 20, 2019
Good primer for a beginner. And every one of his forecasts turned out to be true. Smart guy!
February 7, 2021
Another very good from Jim Rogers. The main point is to praise commodities to investors.
January 23, 2022
Important for investors to think about commodities, and although this book is now dated the thinking behind it is still relevant.
February 15, 2022
Out of date.
Written in 2004 it made sense at the time and is poor on fundamental principles
Written in 2004 it made sense at the time and is poor on fundamental principles
April 13, 2022
A nice overview and discourse of commodity markets from the 90's through to the 2000's by one of the sector's greatest analysts/investors.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 68 reviews