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The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America
The sophomore book of New York Times Bestselling Author of The End of the World is Just the Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.
The world is changing in ways most of us find incomprehensible. Terrorism spills out of the Middle East into Europe. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and Japan vie to see who can be most aggressive. Financial breakdown in Asia and Europe guts growth, challenging hard-won political stability.
Yet, for the Americans, these changes are fantastic. Alone among the world's powers, only the United States is geographically wealthy, demographically robust, and energy secure. That last piece - American energy security - is rapidly emerging as the most critical piece of the global picture.
The American shale revolution does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America's fate to the wider world. It re-industrializes the United States, accelerates the global Order's breakdown, and triggers a series of wide ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. The common theme? Just as the global economy tips into chaos, just as global energy becomes dangerous, just as the world really needs the Americans to be engaged, the United States will be...absent.
In 2014's The Accidental Superpower , geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic, and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower , mapping out Russian aggression in Europe - starting with an invasion of Ukraine - and a world where an increasingly energy independent United States avoids the pitfalls of Europe and Asia's dependence on imported oil.
The world is changing in ways most of us find incomprehensible. Terrorism spills out of the Middle East into Europe. Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and Japan vie to see who can be most aggressive. Financial breakdown in Asia and Europe guts growth, challenging hard-won political stability.
Yet, for the Americans, these changes are fantastic. Alone among the world's powers, only the United States is geographically wealthy, demographically robust, and energy secure. That last piece - American energy security - is rapidly emerging as the most critical piece of the global picture.
The American shale revolution does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America's fate to the wider world. It re-industrializes the United States, accelerates the global Order's breakdown, and triggers a series of wide ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. The common theme? Just as the global economy tips into chaos, just as global energy becomes dangerous, just as the world really needs the Americans to be engaged, the United States will be...absent.
In 2014's The Accidental Superpower , geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan made the case that geographic, demographic, and energy trends were unravelling the global system. Zeihan takes the story a step further in The Absent Superpower , mapping out Russian aggression in Europe - starting with an invasion of Ukraine - and a world where an increasingly energy independent United States avoids the pitfalls of Europe and Asia's dependence on imported oil.
422 pages, Hardcover
First published January 1, 2017
374 people are currently reading
2858 people want to read
About the author
Peter Zeihan
8 books1,094 followersGeopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert.
Zeihan’s worldview marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, debuted in 2014. His sophomore project, The Absent Superpower, published in December 2016.
Find out more about Peter -- and your world -- at www.zeihan.com
Zeihan’s worldview marries the realities of geography and populations to a deep understanding of how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types.
In his career, Zeihan has ranged from working for the US State Department in Australia, to the DC think tank community, to helping develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies. Mr. Zeihan founded his own firm -- Zeihan on Geopolitics -- in 2012 in order to provide a select group of clients with direct, custom analytical products. Today those clients represent a vast array of sectors including energy majors, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural interests, universities and the U.S. military.
His freshman book, The Accidental Superpower, debuted in 2014. His sophomore project, The Absent Superpower, published in December 2016.
Find out more about Peter -- and your world -- at www.zeihan.com
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 137 reviews
March 8, 2018
Pretty decent book, the author started the book with an in-depth discussion of the shale revolution in the US as well as the world. I especially enjoyed the shale discussion because he helped dispel a lot of misinformation currently floating out there. Some of the topics he touched on were global energy chain, shale technologies, and a brief history of the shale revolution.
The author then moved on to a series of hypothetical wars and conflicts that he deem likely as a result of the shale revolution. Unfortunately, it is here when he starts to lose me. The series of conflicts and wars he outlined all predicated on one simple fact: the US disengagement from the wider world because we are no longer reliant on external sources for energy security. Region after region start spiraling into chaos with seemingly no one (read: US) willing to stop the chaos.
Taken at face value, nothing the author wrote was wrong, but if the world was to devolve in the way he described it, scores of nations would have had to act out of their character, with the most obvious one being the United States. In my opinion, the fundamental flaw in the author's argument was that the US is (almost) driven solely by energy needs, and that having our energy needs met, we would no longer have any reason to intervene in global affairs. No nations act solely to meet energy needs, especially not the US. If our energy needs are met, we can rest knowing that other national security concerns will bubble to the surface, forcing/encouraging us to act in one way or another. As written, because of the US's inaction, a certain region will flame up in conflict, and piece by piece in domino-fashion, the rest of the world is engulfed in flames. That view I find problematic and ultimately prevent me from rating it any higher.
For those that are looking for a quick, yet informative, discussion on shale, this book should serve that purpose nicely; but for those looking for a slightly more "realistic" take on how shale could impact US foreign policy and the larger global implication... this book could serve as a good "what-if" read, but not much beyond that.
The author then moved on to a series of hypothetical wars and conflicts that he deem likely as a result of the shale revolution. Unfortunately, it is here when he starts to lose me. The series of conflicts and wars he outlined all predicated on one simple fact: the US disengagement from the wider world because we are no longer reliant on external sources for energy security. Region after region start spiraling into chaos with seemingly no one (read: US) willing to stop the chaos.
Taken at face value, nothing the author wrote was wrong, but if the world was to devolve in the way he described it, scores of nations would have had to act out of their character, with the most obvious one being the United States. In my opinion, the fundamental flaw in the author's argument was that the US is (almost) driven solely by energy needs, and that having our energy needs met, we would no longer have any reason to intervene in global affairs. No nations act solely to meet energy needs, especially not the US. If our energy needs are met, we can rest knowing that other national security concerns will bubble to the surface, forcing/encouraging us to act in one way or another. As written, because of the US's inaction, a certain region will flame up in conflict, and piece by piece in domino-fashion, the rest of the world is engulfed in flames. That view I find problematic and ultimately prevent me from rating it any higher.
For those that are looking for a quick, yet informative, discussion on shale, this book should serve that purpose nicely; but for those looking for a slightly more "realistic" take on how shale could impact US foreign policy and the larger global implication... this book could serve as a good "what-if" read, but not much beyond that.
March 20, 2021
Follow-up to the Accidental Superpower. But absent of anything of real interest. A tiring hike through every country and the author's predictions about what the next decade will look like. Lots of war, apparently. Lots of issues with oil. Despite being published only about four years before I read it, there were already several countries that had noticably gone counter to the predictions. The apocalyptic assumptions the author makes are fantasy. He might be right on some of his more tame predictions, but given how many predictions he's making, and the tamer ones are not unusual, it's only natural he'll get one or two right.
April 3, 2018
Really phenomenal. This is like Guns, Germs, and Steel brought current. I think the quality of its insights destroy any other geopolitical book I’ve listened to. Check out his talks on YouTube, I did and still got a lot out of hearing the whole book. I would love to see him debate a China or Euro bull or read an article disputing the veracity of his points.
May 10, 2022
Exudes confidence in his predictions but so far the only one that came true is invasion of Ukraine and technically that started even before the book was published. Don't know how much of this book is trying to convince people to just follow its recipe for the future, which in this book is really bleak.
May 20, 2018
I recently discovered Ziehan’s first book, the Accidental Superpower, (or just Accidental) and gave it five stars. Peter’s first managed to present the topic of geopolitical strategy combined with the page turner engagement of a Dan Brown novel. Naturally after finishing Accidental, I rushed out to read his follow on ‘Absent’.
My biggest criticism for his follow on book, The Absent Superpower isn’t that it isn’t good or it isn’t interesting, but that it just didn’t pull me in like the first one. There could be a few reasons for this, and they aren’t necessarily Peter’s fault.
In Accidental Superpower, there is what feels like a strong storyline, weaving together a narrative about geography, energy and demographics that travels across the world and builds on the thesis of the US continuing to be a global superpower for generations to come. Once this was done. It’s tough to really fit in where a sequel would go.
Peter chose to add his second batch of clay in a few areas; go into more detail on some topics, like fracking. Update his numbers, and create a list of other countries and fill some chapters with this. The first third of the book dives into technical details of fracking. But of course to get into the details, he must first rehash the adequate description provided in Accidental. I’ve talked to a few people who have read this section, and most have found it ‘boring’. Though if you really want to learn about fracking this is a necessary read. The problem is that for most people the first book gave the color and insight we wanted.
When it comes to updating then numbers, this area was also a bit uninteresting. Accidental was published in 2014 while absent followed up in 2017. The reason the update isn’t interesting is because none of the messages Zeihan describes were wrong! Prior to the trump election, he talks about the US withdrawing from the world stage, and in the Absent follow on, he talks about how facts that have transpired such as pulling out of the Paris climate accord. Also, shale got even more competitive in price and did so even faster than he estimated in Absent. Peter is a victim of his own success. in that his first prognostications were accurate enough that there isn’t much of a reason to listen to his updates.
The remainder of the book basically looks as each section of the world, breaks them down by country and gives a mini-geo political strategy on a near country by country basis. The work here is insightful and high quality, but a bit drudgery to get through, and right about the time I got my head in a particular geography, we’d hop across an ocean to go somewhere new. However, I think this section is highly valuable as a reference, and I’d suggest keeping a copy of the book on your shelf to be able to revisit countries as you hear about them in the news to test if what we’re seeing ties off to a broader strategic narrative.
In summary, the follow up book is very good, but it just didn’t engage me like his first did.
My biggest criticism for his follow on book, The Absent Superpower isn’t that it isn’t good or it isn’t interesting, but that it just didn’t pull me in like the first one. There could be a few reasons for this, and they aren’t necessarily Peter’s fault.
In Accidental Superpower, there is what feels like a strong storyline, weaving together a narrative about geography, energy and demographics that travels across the world and builds on the thesis of the US continuing to be a global superpower for generations to come. Once this was done. It’s tough to really fit in where a sequel would go.
Peter chose to add his second batch of clay in a few areas; go into more detail on some topics, like fracking. Update his numbers, and create a list of other countries and fill some chapters with this. The first third of the book dives into technical details of fracking. But of course to get into the details, he must first rehash the adequate description provided in Accidental. I’ve talked to a few people who have read this section, and most have found it ‘boring’. Though if you really want to learn about fracking this is a necessary read. The problem is that for most people the first book gave the color and insight we wanted.
When it comes to updating then numbers, this area was also a bit uninteresting. Accidental was published in 2014 while absent followed up in 2017. The reason the update isn’t interesting is because none of the messages Zeihan describes were wrong! Prior to the trump election, he talks about the US withdrawing from the world stage, and in the Absent follow on, he talks about how facts that have transpired such as pulling out of the Paris climate accord. Also, shale got even more competitive in price and did so even faster than he estimated in Absent. Peter is a victim of his own success. in that his first prognostications were accurate enough that there isn’t much of a reason to listen to his updates.
The remainder of the book basically looks as each section of the world, breaks them down by country and gives a mini-geo political strategy on a near country by country basis. The work here is insightful and high quality, but a bit drudgery to get through, and right about the time I got my head in a particular geography, we’d hop across an ocean to go somewhere new. However, I think this section is highly valuable as a reference, and I’d suggest keeping a copy of the book on your shelf to be able to revisit countries as you hear about them in the news to test if what we’re seeing ties off to a broader strategic narrative.
In summary, the follow up book is very good, but it just didn’t engage me like his first did.
August 5, 2023
My main criticism of this book would be a potentially overly optimistic view of the American economic strength and military power compared to the rest of the world. I agree that other powers would have their hands full with regional conflicts, I don't know if we can be so sure that American military prowess can be maintained in an ever-changing world. Also, with the political and environmental fight against fossil fuels, the American shale industry will take a major hit with regards to our ability to sustain energy independence.
December 7, 2021
Not good. Reads more like a big oil advert than polisci.
August 21, 2025
Excellent as usual
November 27, 2024
Despite learning more about the American and global energy industries and the specifics of shale, my major complaint about this book is that it felt like 75% of it was just a restatement of Zeihan’s first book, Accidental Superpower. In several important ways, they are the same book.
Predictive overstep: The predictions Zeihan makes in this book are significantly more integrated, and predicated on other predictions coming true. For example, he does not just address the future of Uzbekistan based on the country’s history, geography, economy, etc. In this book, Zeihan makes a tangled web of predictions - ‘because Russia will steamroll Ukraine and the UK will have to commit naval assets to assist the rest of Europe in Russia’s twilight war, they will not be able to protect Saudi oil interests during the next Gulf War, and will leave Japan as the only naval power in the East Asian Tanker war.’ With all of these predictions overlapping, his margin of error feels exponentially larger than in the first book. It felt less academic and more like an exercise in fantasy.
In short, I was chuffed to hear about how Russia is going to reconquer Eastern Europe knowing full well they have been severely attrited in the first stop of their European tour.
A side note that felt important: I resented his dismissiveness of Indonesia and its “mild brand of Islam,” and the implication that the rest of the Muslim world sports a more radical brand of Islam. For someone who prides himself on understanding nuance and intricacy, some of his American ignorance was bizarre.
I do agree with Zeihan when it comes to Americans’ inability to remain calm in foreign policy. He asserts that Americans freak out and overreact about foreign shows of force or strength, because we’re not used to them due to our high quality of life and geographic distance from others. This is a good framing to understand some absurd American overreactions over the last century. Ironically, I do think Zeihan is entirely too optimistic in his assessment of the future of the United States.
Favorite quotes:
“Americans are panic prone.”
Predictive overstep: The predictions Zeihan makes in this book are significantly more integrated, and predicated on other predictions coming true. For example, he does not just address the future of Uzbekistan based on the country’s history, geography, economy, etc. In this book, Zeihan makes a tangled web of predictions - ‘because Russia will steamroll Ukraine and the UK will have to commit naval assets to assist the rest of Europe in Russia’s twilight war, they will not be able to protect Saudi oil interests during the next Gulf War, and will leave Japan as the only naval power in the East Asian Tanker war.’ With all of these predictions overlapping, his margin of error feels exponentially larger than in the first book. It felt less academic and more like an exercise in fantasy.
In short, I was chuffed to hear about how Russia is going to reconquer Eastern Europe knowing full well they have been severely attrited in the first stop of their European tour.
A side note that felt important: I resented his dismissiveness of Indonesia and its “mild brand of Islam,” and the implication that the rest of the Muslim world sports a more radical brand of Islam. For someone who prides himself on understanding nuance and intricacy, some of his American ignorance was bizarre.
I do agree with Zeihan when it comes to Americans’ inability to remain calm in foreign policy. He asserts that Americans freak out and overreact about foreign shows of force or strength, because we’re not used to them due to our high quality of life and geographic distance from others. This is a good framing to understand some absurd American overreactions over the last century. Ironically, I do think Zeihan is entirely too optimistic in his assessment of the future of the United States.
Favorite quotes:
“Americans are panic prone.”
September 9, 2018
Very interesting and I don't think I could add much as to why then other reviewers could.
One point of criticism though: his thesis does kind of depend on ideas staying fairly static in the world. We had the shale revolution, so what about some future technological revolution? Or beyond technology, what if the people of Iran rise up in revolt and replace the theocrats?
One point of criticism though: his thesis does kind of depend on ideas staying fairly static in the world. We had the shale revolution, so what about some future technological revolution? Or beyond technology, what if the people of Iran rise up in revolt and replace the theocrats?
October 30, 2019
The first third of the book is on the technical details and strategic consequences of the Shale Revolution in the US. Utterly fascinating! I learned a TON about shale extraction, its future outlook and how it compares to other types of petroleum extraction. I agree with Zeihan's thesis that the US is now functionally energy independent and will be therefore not be concerned with guaranteeing security of other oil producing countries.
The next two thirds of the book deal with possible wars in Eastern Europe by Russia, in the Middle East by Iran and Saudi Arabia and in East Asia between China and Japan/Taiwan/South Korea/ Southeast Asia. All of these wars will impact global energy flows and will force these countries to make desperate moves to lock down their own future supplies.
This part of the book was exciting but less grounded in fact and compelling argument. I definitely enjoyed the lens of geopolitics (and am planning to read Revenge of Geography) which I hadn't seen well applied before. I was stunned to learn that France has nuclear power because they couldn't get oil from Algeria after their war. Same thing with the country details in Southeast Asia and South America. Geopolitics seems like a VERY powerful framework that I want to learn much more about.
My main takeaway is that war is more likely that I suspected before reading this. I have a default assumption that a big war could never happen again because of the threat of nuclear annihilation. And yet, in the last few years we've had the war in Iraq, the war in Syria, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and earlier of Georgia etc. I now think that small to medium regional wars like this will become more common as the US abandons its global security role because it is energy self sufficient and doesn't have local security threats.
The next two thirds of the book deal with possible wars in Eastern Europe by Russia, in the Middle East by Iran and Saudi Arabia and in East Asia between China and Japan/Taiwan/South Korea/ Southeast Asia. All of these wars will impact global energy flows and will force these countries to make desperate moves to lock down their own future supplies.
This part of the book was exciting but less grounded in fact and compelling argument. I definitely enjoyed the lens of geopolitics (and am planning to read Revenge of Geography) which I hadn't seen well applied before. I was stunned to learn that France has nuclear power because they couldn't get oil from Algeria after their war. Same thing with the country details in Southeast Asia and South America. Geopolitics seems like a VERY powerful framework that I want to learn much more about.
My main takeaway is that war is more likely that I suspected before reading this. I have a default assumption that a big war could never happen again because of the threat of nuclear annihilation. And yet, in the last few years we've had the war in Iraq, the war in Syria, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and earlier of Georgia etc. I now think that small to medium regional wars like this will become more common as the US abandons its global security role because it is energy self sufficient and doesn't have local security threats.
August 11, 2018
A book that helps make sense of the world.
Peter Zeihan gives a coherent explanation of the economic, political, and military changes happening in our world today. Zeihan gives a reasonable explanation for the current Russian aggressive posture in the Ukraine and Crimea as well as why China seems to be on track to capitulating to President Trump’s trade demands and why China is acting aggressively to militarize the South China Sea.
Peter Zeihan gives a coherent explanation of the economic, political, and military changes happening in our world today. Zeihan gives a reasonable explanation for the current Russian aggressive posture in the Ukraine and Crimea as well as why China seems to be on track to capitulating to President Trump’s trade demands and why China is acting aggressively to militarize the South China Sea.
August 18, 2021
I finally made it through this one. It was easy to put down for long periods of time so it took me a bit. It's a big, thorough, complicated look at energy production, extraction, transmission, and consumption across the whole world. He dives into politics, culture, history, and just about everything and how it relates or could relate with energy.
I learned a little bit- shale oil is good, there is still a ton of untapped resources available that can be harvested cheaply and consumed all while lowering Co2 emissions. Global energy is very complicated and there are a lot of variables that can affect, interrupt and adjust the availability and pricing of oil, and natural gas. It'll be interesting to see where things go over the next decade or two.
I learned a little bit- shale oil is good, there is still a ton of untapped resources available that can be harvested cheaply and consumed all while lowering Co2 emissions. Global energy is very complicated and there are a lot of variables that can affect, interrupt and adjust the availability and pricing of oil, and natural gas. It'll be interesting to see where things go over the next decade or two.
November 22, 2020
I have read this as a third Zeihan's book in a row, within a timeframe of the month. It's hugely beneficial to my world understanding. If you have anything to do with international relations, trade, logistics, supply chains and especially energy flows and energy companies - this, as well as other books by this author are a must read.
July 6, 2022
Interesting and well researched. Topics include how oil and gas influence politics, climate change, where people live and how the United States functions to influence or not.
January 17, 2023
How will America's energy independance impact the world?
Zeihan teaches the art of geopolitics and predicts the next phase of global events based upon energy and nations desire for security & expansion. This book reads more like a thriller and every move has an equation that is fascinating and chilling.
I wont spoil this for you but I encourage everyone to read this and learn. Not all is accurate, some bits are missing but mostly Zeihan gets the events and reasons spot on.
Zeihan teaches the art of geopolitics and predicts the next phase of global events based upon energy and nations desire for security & expansion. This book reads more like a thriller and every move has an equation that is fascinating and chilling.
I wont spoil this for you but I encourage everyone to read this and learn. Not all is accurate, some bits are missing but mostly Zeihan gets the events and reasons spot on.
June 3, 2021
Oil Plays and Dollar Diplomacy: The Sweet Mix or Crude Power
Energy and Water are two of the most essential struggles, after food and shelter, and two of the most world-changing factors of history. The Absent Superpower is not a commentary, as the title might make it appear with the use of the word 'absent.' It is not suggesting courses of action or political policy. It is the 'product' of a geopolitical strategist, who looks at current demographics and political trends to predict future world events. It is simple geography and common sense problem-solving interposed on those stats and demographics to arrive at what the day after tomorrow may bring. Of course, the purpose of all that is to provide political planners with facts to make future decisions.
Peter Zeihan begins with a breakdown, or recap of the current state of affairs in shale tech, and moves into why the US is particularly situated to take advantage of this energy revolution (as it has done, extending the life of our oil supplies) unlike most other countries. The author then moves into country by country analysis of the population busts around the world (which the US is not experiencing) and shows the correlation of energy problems, economic concerns, and defense that will push much of the other hemisphere into coming Twilight/Tanker Wars.
In doing so, he makes sense of the current behavior of different nations, revealing surprising statistics along the way, like the aging population of the rest of the world, while the US has a robust Millennial Generation. His take is that while our turn to shale has came a long way toward making us energy independent, it will also tend to contribute to our disengaging from the business of militarily defending world trade, since we won't need oil outside our hemisphere. The book was actually written 5 years ago, and we can see this playing out already today. Incidentally, Zeihan saw Russia's invasion of the Crimea as the beginning of their Twilight War. And, Trump's election was the early sign even then of America's disengagement and oil independence.
I will resist the urge to share quotes. If you are interested in understanding political and current events, infrastructure development and supply chains worldwide, and the way things are playing out around us; then this book is highly to be recommended. I rate it up there with the works of Jared Diamond, Simon Winchester, Nathan Wolfe, Alfred Crosby, and Francis Fukuyama. The real shortcoming, if there is one, to the work is that the author predicts coming wars of almost Biblical proportions, and yet thinks the US can back-step those problems after half the globe falls apart. I guess what I am saying is that the distance he analyzes is limited to a relatively close time period. Then there is the fact that there is no place for the unknown. This looks straightforwardly at the world as it is when predicting where it will be in the future.
I read the Kindle whisper-sync, which was perfect for this book. I have had it on my bookshelf for several months and was glad to get into it. It is not a difficult read, though the author's sense of humor didn't seem funny to me. Maybe I just didn't get his humor, or I prefer a more serious look at history and current events. But, the book provides a wealth of information: geographic, historic and political.
Energy and Water are two of the most essential struggles, after food and shelter, and two of the most world-changing factors of history. The Absent Superpower is not a commentary, as the title might make it appear with the use of the word 'absent.' It is not suggesting courses of action or political policy. It is the 'product' of a geopolitical strategist, who looks at current demographics and political trends to predict future world events. It is simple geography and common sense problem-solving interposed on those stats and demographics to arrive at what the day after tomorrow may bring. Of course, the purpose of all that is to provide political planners with facts to make future decisions.
Peter Zeihan begins with a breakdown, or recap of the current state of affairs in shale tech, and moves into why the US is particularly situated to take advantage of this energy revolution (as it has done, extending the life of our oil supplies) unlike most other countries. The author then moves into country by country analysis of the population busts around the world (which the US is not experiencing) and shows the correlation of energy problems, economic concerns, and defense that will push much of the other hemisphere into coming Twilight/Tanker Wars.
In doing so, he makes sense of the current behavior of different nations, revealing surprising statistics along the way, like the aging population of the rest of the world, while the US has a robust Millennial Generation. His take is that while our turn to shale has came a long way toward making us energy independent, it will also tend to contribute to our disengaging from the business of militarily defending world trade, since we won't need oil outside our hemisphere. The book was actually written 5 years ago, and we can see this playing out already today. Incidentally, Zeihan saw Russia's invasion of the Crimea as the beginning of their Twilight War. And, Trump's election was the early sign even then of America's disengagement and oil independence.
I will resist the urge to share quotes. If you are interested in understanding political and current events, infrastructure development and supply chains worldwide, and the way things are playing out around us; then this book is highly to be recommended. I rate it up there with the works of Jared Diamond, Simon Winchester, Nathan Wolfe, Alfred Crosby, and Francis Fukuyama. The real shortcoming, if there is one, to the work is that the author predicts coming wars of almost Biblical proportions, and yet thinks the US can back-step those problems after half the globe falls apart. I guess what I am saying is that the distance he analyzes is limited to a relatively close time period. Then there is the fact that there is no place for the unknown. This looks straightforwardly at the world as it is when predicting where it will be in the future.
I read the Kindle whisper-sync, which was perfect for this book. I have had it on my bookshelf for several months and was glad to get into it. It is not a difficult read, though the author's sense of humor didn't seem funny to me. Maybe I just didn't get his humor, or I prefer a more serious look at history and current events. But, the book provides a wealth of information: geographic, historic and political.
April 5, 2020
Peter Zeihan is brilliant, and a must read for anyone looking for a blend of world geopolitics and culture. I admit that this follow up to Accidental Superpower was a bit petroleum heavy, and a rather difficult to get through at times. The latter half more engaging than the first. However I already purchased, and looking forward to reading, his recently released Dis-United Nations...
Some excerpts for my own future reference:
___________________________
The first rule of geopolitics is that transport matters. Moving things by water is easy -- so easy that today the cost of transporting goods by water is one-twelfth that of moving them by road. The Greater Mississippi system has more than 12,000 miles of interconnected waterways -- more than the rest of the world put together. So long as this is true, the US can move goods, grains and people about its system at a cost that seems laughably low compared to the internal transport costs of most countries.
___________________________
Moving liquids by pipe is on average one-third the cost of moving liquids by rail, and less than one-tenth by truck.
___________________________
The Americans created Bretton Woods as a bribe. Since Bretton Woods was about swapping economic access for security control, the US could not have used it to force-feed its products to its allies -- instead it had to allow its allies to access US markets unilaterally. The US had to be a net importer, it had to run a trade deficit. For Americans, free trade wasn’t about economics at all, it was a security gambit that was designed to solidify an alliance in order to fight a war.
___________________________
Baby Boomers: They comprise the largest population cohort the Americans have ever generated as a proportion of their population: 75 million. There are so many of them that they have contorted the American system all their lives. When they entered the workforce they absorbed all the available jobs. That flooding of the labor market depressed wages for two decades and forced many households to obtain two incomes-depressing wages even more-in order to get by. By 2000, the vast majority of Boomers were in the “mature worker” phase of their lives. The result has been a wealth of investment capital surging through American financial markets, keeping borrowing costs low.
___________________________
Middle East Religion: Citizens of Iran predominantly practice Shia Islam, while the Saudis follow a militant, puritanical strain of Sunni Islam. Clerical interpretation on both sides labels the other as heretical. Saudi Arabia holds Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina, locales sacred to all Muslims regardless of denomination. Riyadh has on several occasions denied Iranians access. Globally the Sunni outnumber the Shia 6:1, which encourages major Sunni powers (Saudi Arabia) to claim to speak for Islam as a whole; but within the Persian Gulf the Shia outnumber the Sunnis, which encourages Iran to claim to run the region.
___________________________
During WWI the Saudis were exactly what the Brits needed: a local group skilled at hit-and-run desert warfare who could be bribed to attack the Ottoman Turks. A British-Saudi alliance was formed, and when the war ended the Saudis had enough organization, weaponry, and British backing to make a bid for security control of the area. The state of Saudi Arabia was born
___________________________
Palestinian Territories: The Saudis and Iranians are also picking sides in the Palestinian movement. The Saudis back the Fatah faction that rules West Bank; Fatah is broadly willing to come to a diplomatic agreement with the Israelis over the future of the Palestinian territories. For their part, the Iranians gravitate toward Hamas -- a faction far more willing to take up arms --which rules the Gaza Strip, in essence an open-air refugee camp that survives on goods smuggled through tunnels from Egypt.
___________________________
In the aftermath of WWI the Europeans literally got together and drew lines on the map to break up the region into zones of influence. This agreement -- known as Sykes-Picot after its primary authors -- was forged with little regard for population centers or ethnic settlement patterns and did so before the discovery of the world’s most massive petroleum deposits.
___________________________
During WWII the Chinese were engaged in a parallel and more brutal conflict: a civil war between the Communist forces of Mao and the Nationalist forces of Chiang that claimed nearly 10 million lives. In the end, Mao proved victorious, with Chiang’s forces retreating to the island of Formosa (Taiwan) in December of 1949.
___________________________
Saudi-Pakistan Relationship: It all comes down to Saudi work ethic, namely that Saudi’s don’t have one. As such the Saudis import scads of laborers from South and Southeast Asia to do everything from construction to home servicing. The Saudis quickly discovered that unlike other sources of workers, there was more to Pakistan than simply a source of cheap labor. Pakistan’s decades-long military standoff with India has left it not just armed to the teeth, but with the expertise to make the most of the weapons it has. Pakistanis now comprise the bulk of the Saudi Air Force’s pilot corps. All for the mere cost of 100k barrels of discounted crude oil. In sum, the relationship may have started with maid service, but is now a mutually-beneficial association of military, economic, energy, and strategic links.
___________________________
In America the early settlers pushed across gaps in the Appalachians and settled in Ohio, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri River Valleys. They found rich agricultural lands that barely had to be cleared before being brought into grain production. With a few months work the pioneers could ship that excess grain down river to St. Louis, New Orleans, and then to the wider world. Shipping depots popped up along the length of the river to help the farmers haul and package the grain. These depots eventually added services that the farmers found useful-blacksmiths, banks, schools-becoming small towns. Local economic needs led to regional economic development, which became a global economic phenomenon. As these small towns grew, labor naturally specialized and became more highly skilled, while economies of scale proliferated up and down the rivers.
This organic growth and development became the backbone of not just the American economic system, but its political system as well. Small towns along a unified network created a sense of can-do individualism and community that penetrates deeply into the American psyche even today.
___________________________
In summary, America has the flat lands of Australia with the climate and land quality of France, the riverine characteristics of Germany with the strategic exposure of New Zealand -- all on a scale that is continental. Such landscapes not only make it rich and secure beyond peer, but also enable its navy to be SO powerful that America dominates the global oceans.
Some excerpts for my own future reference:
___________________________
The first rule of geopolitics is that transport matters. Moving things by water is easy -- so easy that today the cost of transporting goods by water is one-twelfth that of moving them by road. The Greater Mississippi system has more than 12,000 miles of interconnected waterways -- more than the rest of the world put together. So long as this is true, the US can move goods, grains and people about its system at a cost that seems laughably low compared to the internal transport costs of most countries.
___________________________
Moving liquids by pipe is on average one-third the cost of moving liquids by rail, and less than one-tenth by truck.
___________________________
The Americans created Bretton Woods as a bribe. Since Bretton Woods was about swapping economic access for security control, the US could not have used it to force-feed its products to its allies -- instead it had to allow its allies to access US markets unilaterally. The US had to be a net importer, it had to run a trade deficit. For Americans, free trade wasn’t about economics at all, it was a security gambit that was designed to solidify an alliance in order to fight a war.
___________________________
Baby Boomers: They comprise the largest population cohort the Americans have ever generated as a proportion of their population: 75 million. There are so many of them that they have contorted the American system all their lives. When they entered the workforce they absorbed all the available jobs. That flooding of the labor market depressed wages for two decades and forced many households to obtain two incomes-depressing wages even more-in order to get by. By 2000, the vast majority of Boomers were in the “mature worker” phase of their lives. The result has been a wealth of investment capital surging through American financial markets, keeping borrowing costs low.
___________________________
Middle East Religion: Citizens of Iran predominantly practice Shia Islam, while the Saudis follow a militant, puritanical strain of Sunni Islam. Clerical interpretation on both sides labels the other as heretical. Saudi Arabia holds Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina, locales sacred to all Muslims regardless of denomination. Riyadh has on several occasions denied Iranians access. Globally the Sunni outnumber the Shia 6:1, which encourages major Sunni powers (Saudi Arabia) to claim to speak for Islam as a whole; but within the Persian Gulf the Shia outnumber the Sunnis, which encourages Iran to claim to run the region.
___________________________
During WWI the Saudis were exactly what the Brits needed: a local group skilled at hit-and-run desert warfare who could be bribed to attack the Ottoman Turks. A British-Saudi alliance was formed, and when the war ended the Saudis had enough organization, weaponry, and British backing to make a bid for security control of the area. The state of Saudi Arabia was born
___________________________
Palestinian Territories: The Saudis and Iranians are also picking sides in the Palestinian movement. The Saudis back the Fatah faction that rules West Bank; Fatah is broadly willing to come to a diplomatic agreement with the Israelis over the future of the Palestinian territories. For their part, the Iranians gravitate toward Hamas -- a faction far more willing to take up arms --which rules the Gaza Strip, in essence an open-air refugee camp that survives on goods smuggled through tunnels from Egypt.
___________________________
In the aftermath of WWI the Europeans literally got together and drew lines on the map to break up the region into zones of influence. This agreement -- known as Sykes-Picot after its primary authors -- was forged with little regard for population centers or ethnic settlement patterns and did so before the discovery of the world’s most massive petroleum deposits.
___________________________
During WWII the Chinese were engaged in a parallel and more brutal conflict: a civil war between the Communist forces of Mao and the Nationalist forces of Chiang that claimed nearly 10 million lives. In the end, Mao proved victorious, with Chiang’s forces retreating to the island of Formosa (Taiwan) in December of 1949.
___________________________
Saudi-Pakistan Relationship: It all comes down to Saudi work ethic, namely that Saudi’s don’t have one. As such the Saudis import scads of laborers from South and Southeast Asia to do everything from construction to home servicing. The Saudis quickly discovered that unlike other sources of workers, there was more to Pakistan than simply a source of cheap labor. Pakistan’s decades-long military standoff with India has left it not just armed to the teeth, but with the expertise to make the most of the weapons it has. Pakistanis now comprise the bulk of the Saudi Air Force’s pilot corps. All for the mere cost of 100k barrels of discounted crude oil. In sum, the relationship may have started with maid service, but is now a mutually-beneficial association of military, economic, energy, and strategic links.
___________________________
In America the early settlers pushed across gaps in the Appalachians and settled in Ohio, Mississippi, Tennessee and Missouri River Valleys. They found rich agricultural lands that barely had to be cleared before being brought into grain production. With a few months work the pioneers could ship that excess grain down river to St. Louis, New Orleans, and then to the wider world. Shipping depots popped up along the length of the river to help the farmers haul and package the grain. These depots eventually added services that the farmers found useful-blacksmiths, banks, schools-becoming small towns. Local economic needs led to regional economic development, which became a global economic phenomenon. As these small towns grew, labor naturally specialized and became more highly skilled, while economies of scale proliferated up and down the rivers.
This organic growth and development became the backbone of not just the American economic system, but its political system as well. Small towns along a unified network created a sense of can-do individualism and community that penetrates deeply into the American psyche even today.
___________________________
In summary, America has the flat lands of Australia with the climate and land quality of France, the riverine characteristics of Germany with the strategic exposure of New Zealand -- all on a scale that is continental. Such landscapes not only make it rich and secure beyond peer, but also enable its navy to be SO powerful that America dominates the global oceans.
January 4, 2017
All in all this is more of a 3 1/2 star book, but that is not a choice. Zeihan has written an engaging follow up to his book "The Accidental Superpower", but this time he is emphasizing the role the development of the US's frack-able hydrocarbons has had in obliterating any need the US has for the global security system it built after WW2. The collapse of the Soviet Union undermined the original rationale for the global trading and security order and the looming near energy independence of the US completely ends it. A Trump presidency merely accelerates the inevitable. He sees the US pursuing 20-30 years of American 1st type isolationism military wise. The US electorate is tired of supporting the system and from a cost/benefit POV, the US needs the world less than it has in a century. We face no existential threat like the USSR to woo nations to our cause, we don't need oil from outside N. America and trade wise the US is one of the least globally integrated economies on the planet.
To Zeihan's credit he has moved away from the "barge and canal based economy" lines of reasoning he laid out in TAS (my book club friends still mock the barge talk) and for the most part he makes a very compelling set of analysis of the issues confronting each region and notable country of the world. Zeihan gets on weaker ground when he not only predicts 3 different regions heading towards military conflict, but also suggests at time that these 3 wars will happen simultaneously. If he gets 1 war prediction he would doing well, if all 3 eventually happen it would be a grand champion futurist accomplishment. BUT all three, at the same time seems absurd.....I sardonically hope he is right because business will be great.
To Zeihan's credit he has moved away from the "barge and canal based economy" lines of reasoning he laid out in TAS (my book club friends still mock the barge talk) and for the most part he makes a very compelling set of analysis of the issues confronting each region and notable country of the world. Zeihan gets on weaker ground when he not only predicts 3 different regions heading towards military conflict, but also suggests at time that these 3 wars will happen simultaneously. If he gets 1 war prediction he would doing well, if all 3 eventually happen it would be a grand champion futurist accomplishment. BUT all three, at the same time seems absurd.....I sardonically hope he is right because business will be great.
June 21, 2019
A fantastic geopolitical overview
I found the book stimulating not just for future predictions but because of the overview given on how geography plays the pivotal role in human relations & development.
If you want to understand the world better, read this book.
I found the book stimulating not just for future predictions but because of the overview given on how geography plays the pivotal role in human relations & development.
If you want to understand the world better, read this book.
October 25, 2019
I came across an article by Peter Zeihan on why it was inevitable that the U.S. pulled out of Syria and how it's not really that much of a problem for our country. I was intrigued by his rational and intuitive explanation of this major event that was so pro-America and at the same time, an explanation and thought process I had not encountered in any political commentary. Article for reference: http://zeihan.com/goodbye-to-the-midd... . I decided to buy his book (on Audible) and give it a listen.
The central premise is that the development of shale as an energy source for America (augmented by our natural geographical features that allow for some of the best shale extraction in the world) coupled with populist politics means that the United States does not need to be involved in the Middle East oil market, or really anywhere in the world. The post-Bretton Woods (1944) world that sees the United States enforcing global security and free trade among all countries is slowly falling apart. The system of economic globalism is at it's end according to Zeihan. As the United States becomes increasingly isolationist, regional power vacuums start to be filled similar to the world pre-WW1.
He predicts the following conflicts with reasonable certainty and thinks through the political, economic, and energy inputs and outcomes for the following areas: Russia vs Scandinavian Countries / Britain / Maybe Poland & Germany / Maybe Turkey(which has begun with Russia's annexation of Ukraine and is a result of a demographic crisis), free for all between the NEA4 - China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and further middle east conflict between Iran and Saudia Arabia. Major winners include South East Asia, France, and the United States.
In addition to these conflicts, he describes the energy supply and demand of all major powers and areas and how these drive political decisions. Also he goes into the major 7 oil companies and how they impact political situations. Supply chains feature prominently and access to energy can be the difference between success and failure in this new world. Wars will occur over access to energy sources and victory can be insured by starving a countries access to energy or by preventing the sale of it's energy. Some countries win and others lose as the energy market evolve to the new marketplace. The U.S. chugs along powered by Shale. Military resources are deployed as means to secure energy, whether it's a navy convoying energy shipments or land based air forces dominating military conflicts and cutting off access to energy resources.
Another addition to the book besides energy situations is how the geography of countries impact economic and political power. Regional power centers created by access to ample farm land and defensive geography like the Mississippi River Basin or Rio de la Plata or North China plain are determinants of potential power. Other features, like rivers or mountains can be sources of advantage or absolutely devastating to a country's development and potential. Some countries are unable to overcome these natural obstacles. This is an idea developed in the book 10 maps that explain the world.
America remains one of the few countries to benefit from Zeihan's new world order. Access to American Shale ensures American energy independence and flexibility. Regional power centers in the Northwest, Mississippi Basin, and East Coast ensure American dominance and total resource independence provides political and economic flexibility. Dollar diplomacy similar to late 1800's American policy reemerges as some South Eastern Asian and South American countries benefit but pay for American involved in economic investment but potentially heavy handed dealings. American consumer economy continues to provide one of the only growth markets in the world, providing instant carrots for countries wishing to tap into our market, given at a cost. France does very well in this future as the rest of Europe goes to war and they remain neutral, Italy is 50/50 between winning big and getting crushed.
It's not clear if the world will really shift in this direction or how long it will take. The 70 year momentum of the existing world order is compelling but we have seen signs of his theory in the Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea and now in the Americans pulling out of Syria. His explanation is somewhat comforting. What he really describes is the end of America as the sole superpower and how by pulling back our power and involvement, we allow other power centers to emerge in a multi-polar world. This will involve growing pains as countries fight it out to resolve their position in the totem pole but could result in a more diversified, albeit nationalistic future. His blog continues to push material supporting his theories. The world could someday unify under one world government, but in the meantime, with America pulling back, other regional power centers will emerge and maybe thats the next step forward in the history of Humanity, that is if we don't blow ourselves up getting there.
I really enjoy these real politik books. It's tough to know how much will happen as it's purely the theory of one man but it seems well thought out though I'm sure holes could be poked here and there. It is ultimately a theory based on world politics based on energy and geography and political/economic/military situations of the present day. What will happen is chaotic and if anyone could predict the future they would make a killing in the stock market. I will be interested in seeing how events play out in my lifetime and how they match the descriptions posited here. The book will definitely influence my views on international relations and events though.
The central premise is that the development of shale as an energy source for America (augmented by our natural geographical features that allow for some of the best shale extraction in the world) coupled with populist politics means that the United States does not need to be involved in the Middle East oil market, or really anywhere in the world. The post-Bretton Woods (1944) world that sees the United States enforcing global security and free trade among all countries is slowly falling apart. The system of economic globalism is at it's end according to Zeihan. As the United States becomes increasingly isolationist, regional power vacuums start to be filled similar to the world pre-WW1.
He predicts the following conflicts with reasonable certainty and thinks through the political, economic, and energy inputs and outcomes for the following areas: Russia vs Scandinavian Countries / Britain / Maybe Poland & Germany / Maybe Turkey(which has begun with Russia's annexation of Ukraine and is a result of a demographic crisis), free for all between the NEA4 - China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and further middle east conflict between Iran and Saudia Arabia. Major winners include South East Asia, France, and the United States.
In addition to these conflicts, he describes the energy supply and demand of all major powers and areas and how these drive political decisions. Also he goes into the major 7 oil companies and how they impact political situations. Supply chains feature prominently and access to energy can be the difference between success and failure in this new world. Wars will occur over access to energy sources and victory can be insured by starving a countries access to energy or by preventing the sale of it's energy. Some countries win and others lose as the energy market evolve to the new marketplace. The U.S. chugs along powered by Shale. Military resources are deployed as means to secure energy, whether it's a navy convoying energy shipments or land based air forces dominating military conflicts and cutting off access to energy resources.
Another addition to the book besides energy situations is how the geography of countries impact economic and political power. Regional power centers created by access to ample farm land and defensive geography like the Mississippi River Basin or Rio de la Plata or North China plain are determinants of potential power. Other features, like rivers or mountains can be sources of advantage or absolutely devastating to a country's development and potential. Some countries are unable to overcome these natural obstacles. This is an idea developed in the book 10 maps that explain the world.
America remains one of the few countries to benefit from Zeihan's new world order. Access to American Shale ensures American energy independence and flexibility. Regional power centers in the Northwest, Mississippi Basin, and East Coast ensure American dominance and total resource independence provides political and economic flexibility. Dollar diplomacy similar to late 1800's American policy reemerges as some South Eastern Asian and South American countries benefit but pay for American involved in economic investment but potentially heavy handed dealings. American consumer economy continues to provide one of the only growth markets in the world, providing instant carrots for countries wishing to tap into our market, given at a cost. France does very well in this future as the rest of Europe goes to war and they remain neutral, Italy is 50/50 between winning big and getting crushed.
It's not clear if the world will really shift in this direction or how long it will take. The 70 year momentum of the existing world order is compelling but we have seen signs of his theory in the Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea and now in the Americans pulling out of Syria. His explanation is somewhat comforting. What he really describes is the end of America as the sole superpower and how by pulling back our power and involvement, we allow other power centers to emerge in a multi-polar world. This will involve growing pains as countries fight it out to resolve their position in the totem pole but could result in a more diversified, albeit nationalistic future. His blog continues to push material supporting his theories. The world could someday unify under one world government, but in the meantime, with America pulling back, other regional power centers will emerge and maybe thats the next step forward in the history of Humanity, that is if we don't blow ourselves up getting there.
I really enjoy these real politik books. It's tough to know how much will happen as it's purely the theory of one man but it seems well thought out though I'm sure holes could be poked here and there. It is ultimately a theory based on world politics based on energy and geography and political/economic/military situations of the present day. What will happen is chaotic and if anyone could predict the future they would make a killing in the stock market. I will be interested in seeing how events play out in my lifetime and how they match the descriptions posited here. The book will definitely influence my views on international relations and events though.
April 2, 2018
Mr. Zeihan makes a lot of assumptions I can't accept, and creates an overly pessimistic view of the world and our future. I understand and even agree with parts of the premise, but I think Zeihan under estimates the power of the international norms that govern behavior and the alliances that exist outside of the United States today. Having said that I think I thoroughly enjoyed his previous book "The Accidental Superpower" and this book is the natural successor, and should be read by people interested in international affairs as a cautionary tale of what the world could be.
January 1, 2018
Very educational and enlightening. Not perfect, a little repetitive, but a must read for anyone to talk foreign policy and international business.
Very educational and enlightening. Not perfect, a little repetitive, but a must read for anyone to talk foreign policy and international business.
Very educational and enlightening. Not perfect, a little repetitive, but a must read for anyone to talk foreign policy and international business.
December 16, 2018
This was a continuation/elaboration of Zeihan's first book. Essentially geography-focused prediction about the next 30-50 years of politics, but in this case taking into account the oil-shale revolution (which essentially makes North America a net energy exporter) and how that will accelerate isolationism in the Americas and challenge supply chains everywhere else.
April 19, 2017
I don't agree with all the conclusions, but the perspective and insight was incredibly valuable.
April 22, 2017
An entertaining, insightful, not-too-complicated read. Hopefully, for the world's sake, everything he predicts does not come to fruition.
January 1, 2019
Doesn’t quite live up to the first one but still very much worth taking in.
February 24, 2020
A good book, but essentially a slightly more technical version of his earlier book, The Accidental Superpower. I would just read that one instead.
February 19, 2024
The retreat of America from the world since the end of the Cold War era has left many people without any purpose or significant work value, Peter Zeihan is one of them, and he needs to promotes his consultant firm so he write this kind of book that I call mental jerk-off books, since it proposes wars or scenarios that are not feasible today. The wars in the Middle East are the product of fights between Arab/Persian factions, and the Israel-Palestine conflict was fueled by to wreck of China's economy by the US via higher fuel prices. Brazil, Argentina, and Africa are minor players that together with the Lithium minerals only serve as paws in the US economic war to wreck China economically and technologically.
He is not considering at all the climate change impact(just a small appendix at the end), which is huge for any country.
Time is a test that big mouths cannot pass...and this book is proof of it.
- Some of his comments about Ukraine have not happened. The Russia-Ukraine war
started on Feb 24th, 2022 still is ongoing with the help of the occident(USA, Germany, UK, etc.)
- Norway could — easily — displace every molecule of Russian petrocarbons that the Scandinavian quartet could possibly need, and still have plenty of extra supply to firm up the United Kingdom’s participation in the coalition.---> Didn't happen, they faced huge price increases due to the war.
- The Ukraine war has been more disruptive to hydrocarbon prices than he mentioned, so huge that Europe people can't handle it.
- The Russians will watch helplessly as their single-largest energy outflow point — and thus single-largest income inflow point — is taken offline.---> They directed the exports to China, and not to a huge discount that many claim.
- Natural gas exposure isn’t nearly as onerous, as it accounts for less than one-sixth of Germany’s electricity generation.---> But together with German policy to outcast Nuclear Power has left them in a bad position and the Ukraine war showed it.
- The United States will be happy to sell weapons and other materials to pretty much anyone who is participating in the war against Russia.---> Didn't happen
- It is difficult to see the pre-salt being profitable at anything less than $80 a barrel ---> However, now is around $40 bbl.
- Their development will require the importation — or local fostering — of dozens of shale operators. As the United States’ second language is Spanish, and its speaking is heavy in the top shale state of Texas, this workforce is available and its partial transfer to Argentina will happen. But it will take time for momentum — and trust in the new government — to build. ---> Argentineans don't need them, and when they came they failed miserably.
- Smaller independent energy companies have long been chewing away at the supermajors’ collective market share, and the independents’ ownership of the shale revolution has largely sidelined the American supers in their home market. ---> Not any more---Supermajors bought them
- ExxonMobil and Chevron already are positioning themselves in Argentina’s rapidly expanding and opening energy patch, with ExxonMobil holding production leases on nearly a million acres in the Vaca Muerta shale field. ---> Now they want to leave..desperately
- U.S. economic exposure to global developments is limited, and in no case is the exposure strategic. Any disruptions — even disruptions caused by the United States — are not felt by the United States.---> The chip supply problems, hurt the American Economy, and prescription drugs and medical equipment supply shortfalls have been an issue since the pandemic.
- American power can starve its target of either energy or income without engaging in battle.---> They can't do it right now with Russia.
- He said that everything in India is weak, but they stand up Coronavirus Pandemic better than the US and the developed countries.
- He talks against Venezuela, but the US just turns back to them for oil supply given the Ukraine war and the European situation, and they're doing everything to throw Maduro back there.
- Regarding Brazil, he said that help is not coming. ---> However, Exxon expended $4 Bi in exploration and failed miserably.
I gave it 3 stars since he put together all the common misunderstandings and fantasies that American military/political analysts have, but that doesn't mean to be true or accurate.
He is not considering at all the climate change impact(just a small appendix at the end), which is huge for any country.
Time is a test that big mouths cannot pass...and this book is proof of it.
- Some of his comments about Ukraine have not happened. The Russia-Ukraine war
started on Feb 24th, 2022 still is ongoing with the help of the occident(USA, Germany, UK, etc.)
- Norway could — easily — displace every molecule of Russian petrocarbons that the Scandinavian quartet could possibly need, and still have plenty of extra supply to firm up the United Kingdom’s participation in the coalition.---> Didn't happen, they faced huge price increases due to the war.
- The Ukraine war has been more disruptive to hydrocarbon prices than he mentioned, so huge that Europe people can't handle it.
- The Russians will watch helplessly as their single-largest energy outflow point — and thus single-largest income inflow point — is taken offline.---> They directed the exports to China, and not to a huge discount that many claim.
- Natural gas exposure isn’t nearly as onerous, as it accounts for less than one-sixth of Germany’s electricity generation.---> But together with German policy to outcast Nuclear Power has left them in a bad position and the Ukraine war showed it.
- The United States will be happy to sell weapons and other materials to pretty much anyone who is participating in the war against Russia.---> Didn't happen
- It is difficult to see the pre-salt being profitable at anything less than $80 a barrel ---> However, now is around $40 bbl.
- Their development will require the importation — or local fostering — of dozens of shale operators. As the United States’ second language is Spanish, and its speaking is heavy in the top shale state of Texas, this workforce is available and its partial transfer to Argentina will happen. But it will take time for momentum — and trust in the new government — to build. ---> Argentineans don't need them, and when they came they failed miserably.
- Smaller independent energy companies have long been chewing away at the supermajors’ collective market share, and the independents’ ownership of the shale revolution has largely sidelined the American supers in their home market. ---> Not any more---Supermajors bought them
- ExxonMobil and Chevron already are positioning themselves in Argentina’s rapidly expanding and opening energy patch, with ExxonMobil holding production leases on nearly a million acres in the Vaca Muerta shale field. ---> Now they want to leave..desperately
- U.S. economic exposure to global developments is limited, and in no case is the exposure strategic. Any disruptions — even disruptions caused by the United States — are not felt by the United States.---> The chip supply problems, hurt the American Economy, and prescription drugs and medical equipment supply shortfalls have been an issue since the pandemic.
- American power can starve its target of either energy or income without engaging in battle.---> They can't do it right now with Russia.
- He said that everything in India is weak, but they stand up Coronavirus Pandemic better than the US and the developed countries.
- He talks against Venezuela, but the US just turns back to them for oil supply given the Ukraine war and the European situation, and they're doing everything to throw Maduro back there.
- Regarding Brazil, he said that help is not coming. ---> However, Exxon expended $4 Bi in exploration and failed miserably.
I gave it 3 stars since he put together all the common misunderstandings and fantasies that American military/political analysts have, but that doesn't mean to be true or accurate.
July 23, 2019
Some fantastic information on shale production. Details on how its found, drilled, extracted. The huge surge in shale production is close to miraculous. And the natural gas spin-off is a boon for US electricity production. By natural gas replacing coal in electricity generation, shale production has done much more to reduce greenhouse gases than all the wind and solar installations. Regardless of the Green Hype, oil is not going anywhere for a long time.
The book also highlights the absolutely critical nature of oil and the associated natural gas. It has started wars in the past and Peter Zeihan predicts future wars triggered by oil. Oil is more important than food. Without oil, no food is harvested or transported to hungry people. And of course, without oil, militaries are relegated to civil war status with horses and buggy. Oil is the single most important commodity in the globe.
Interlinked with shale oil is America's place as the worlds de facto policeman. The current global status is Pax Americana. It is US military presence that keeps global trade lines open. With US becoming energy independent, Americans will become less and less willing to pay for global security. Of course, Americans benefit from global security, but as the US is much less dependent on export to drive its economy, safe passage on oceans is a lower priority than it is for major exporting counties like China.
Once the US pulls back from securing the world's oceans, Zeihan predicts wars are inevitable in Asia and Russia. He plays our extensive scenarios on how these would play out. Almost certainly, they won't play out in that way, but it's a useful exercise to game out a plausible outline.
Particularly with Russia, it seems clear they want to extend their sphere of influence to Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Baltics. The author suggests this will trigger the Europeans to go to war with the Russians. I find that hard to believe. European armies are woefully inept and the populations are so averse to military action they make Chamberlain look like a crazed warmonger. It seems more likey the Germans will acquiesce to whatever the Russians demand.
The book also highlights the unique geographical advantages of the US. Abundant fertile land, navigable rivers, huge ocean buffers that provide impenetrable barriers against military invasion, and of course huge oil deposits. Demographics are another factor. US has better demographics that the Chinese, Japanese or Eurpoean. They factor will maintain the US hegemonic postion.
All these factors contribute to America's inward turn. If Peter is right that no matter the politics of the White House, Americans will withdraw from the world (as it has before), then the current global Pax American will fade into regional conflicts with the biggest losers being China and Africa.
Another factor this book highlights the abundant cash the Saudi's are sitting on. They can last decades with deficits to subside their populus and undermining Iran - their arch enemy. This book helps explain some of the recent Saudi muscle-flexing, against enemies foreign and domestic. And the Saudi price war is targetted more at the Iranians than anyone else.
Overall, a lot of great information in this book, but its a bit too long and too long on hypothetical. I think a better focus would have been on the history, which is inevitably repeated.
The book also highlights the absolutely critical nature of oil and the associated natural gas. It has started wars in the past and Peter Zeihan predicts future wars triggered by oil. Oil is more important than food. Without oil, no food is harvested or transported to hungry people. And of course, without oil, militaries are relegated to civil war status with horses and buggy. Oil is the single most important commodity in the globe.
Interlinked with shale oil is America's place as the worlds de facto policeman. The current global status is Pax Americana. It is US military presence that keeps global trade lines open. With US becoming energy independent, Americans will become less and less willing to pay for global security. Of course, Americans benefit from global security, but as the US is much less dependent on export to drive its economy, safe passage on oceans is a lower priority than it is for major exporting counties like China.
Once the US pulls back from securing the world's oceans, Zeihan predicts wars are inevitable in Asia and Russia. He plays our extensive scenarios on how these would play out. Almost certainly, they won't play out in that way, but it's a useful exercise to game out a plausible outline.
Particularly with Russia, it seems clear they want to extend their sphere of influence to Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Baltics. The author suggests this will trigger the Europeans to go to war with the Russians. I find that hard to believe. European armies are woefully inept and the populations are so averse to military action they make Chamberlain look like a crazed warmonger. It seems more likey the Germans will acquiesce to whatever the Russians demand.
The book also highlights the unique geographical advantages of the US. Abundant fertile land, navigable rivers, huge ocean buffers that provide impenetrable barriers against military invasion, and of course huge oil deposits. Demographics are another factor. US has better demographics that the Chinese, Japanese or Eurpoean. They factor will maintain the US hegemonic postion.
All these factors contribute to America's inward turn. If Peter is right that no matter the politics of the White House, Americans will withdraw from the world (as it has before), then the current global Pax American will fade into regional conflicts with the biggest losers being China and Africa.
Another factor this book highlights the abundant cash the Saudi's are sitting on. They can last decades with deficits to subside their populus and undermining Iran - their arch enemy. This book helps explain some of the recent Saudi muscle-flexing, against enemies foreign and domestic. And the Saudi price war is targetted more at the Iranians than anyone else.
Overall, a lot of great information in this book, but its a bit too long and too long on hypothetical. I think a better focus would have been on the history, which is inevitably repeated.
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