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The Fates of Nations: A Biological Theory of History
In the last few thousand years, humans have so increased in population that we have almost overrun the earth. We have drastically changed our style of living -- from humble hunter s to civilized humans. And we have watched history repeat itself as one emergent people after another has expanded against its neighbors and lived on in splendor and freedom until it, too, slid away into ignominious eclipse.
383 pages, Hardcover
First published August 18, 1980
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Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews
February 6, 2016
His ecological theories are interesting, but not very convincing as a Theory of Everything in History. He is careful to explain why population pressure happens, but he doesn't offer any explanation of why that sometimes brings technological advances in war. Why did the Greeks and not the Persians develop the phalanx? Why did the Romans and not the Carthaginians develop the legion? Why couldn't either copy the approach, like the victims in the modern West did? I don't have a great explanation of technological progress either, but if your premise is that population pressure causes it, maybe it should cause it in other cases as well.
Still, it's not until the last chapter - looking towards the future - that things start to fall apart. His predictions - from 40 years ago - are that the age of cheap energy and thus cheap food are very nearly over, and that population growth will continue to explode, even in rich countries. That population growth will make abject poverty unescapable and war inevitable, and expensive food and energy will lead to rapidly falling standards of living even in rich countries.
Needless to say, this has not come to pass. Food continues to be cheap; fossil fuels are slowly being phased out as renewable energy becomes competitive on price; population growth has peaked in the rich world and is slowing down in the developing world; billions have been lifted out of $1/day poverty in the last 40 years and into a (slightly) better life. The Malthusian disaster stubbornly continues to not happen.
I can't really blame anyone for bad predictions - the future is hard to predict - but his claims that this is the only "scientific" view of the future make it a little harder to be gentle.
Still, it's not until the last chapter - looking towards the future - that things start to fall apart. His predictions - from 40 years ago - are that the age of cheap energy and thus cheap food are very nearly over, and that population growth will continue to explode, even in rich countries. That population growth will make abject poverty unescapable and war inevitable, and expensive food and energy will lead to rapidly falling standards of living even in rich countries.
Needless to say, this has not come to pass. Food continues to be cheap; fossil fuels are slowly being phased out as renewable energy becomes competitive on price; population growth has peaked in the rich world and is slowing down in the developing world; billions have been lifted out of $1/day poverty in the last 40 years and into a (slightly) better life. The Malthusian disaster stubbornly continues to not happen.
I can't really blame anyone for bad predictions - the future is hard to predict - but his claims that this is the only "scientific" view of the future make it a little harder to be gentle.
May 28, 2016
In this book, Paul Colinvaux develops an interesting ecological theory - which I try to summarize in the next paragraph – that he then uses to explain the rise and fall of the Greek and Roman empire, the success of the Mongol empire under Genghis Khan, the colonization of America by Europeans, the independence of the US from Europe and the empire-building endeavors of the various European nations. Finally, he uses his theory to make some projections for the future.
The ecological theory he has developed is not hard to understand. Its implications are far reaching so you may sometimes have to think a bit through but that is what makes it interesting. Once I saw the obvious relation between his theory and the social developments it explains I realized the power of this theory. Basically he applies two ecologic concepts known as the 'breeding strategy' and 'niches' onto the human species to explain why every society has to undergo the problems associated with growth and decay. The breeding strategy tells us that animals will always try to have as many offspring as the parents can provide for. The many evils of human history are a direct result of this primitive breeding strategy and as long as humans do not change their breeding strategy our species will continue to have hard times. Niches are the available 'slots' nature has available to harbor its many creatures, the numbers of niches give us an idea of the carrying capacity of a certain ecological system (it doesn't make it sustainable but makes it temporarily stable). The niches and the breeding strategy must be in balance. For example, the large technical evolution of the last century created many new niches in society which where filled up by the exploding human population in that same period of time. If the balance is gone, problems arise. If the population rises but the number of available niches remains constant poverty and decay start to appear.
He for example concludes that social oppression is an inevitable consequence of a continuous rising population. Crowding suppresses individual freedom and creates an enormous pressure on the available niches. This means that society will have to develop means to control this situation and a caste system, trade, colonization and empire building are all means of a society to comply to the rule of balance between the available niches and the breeding strategy. These 'fixes' are not sustainable and mostly not humane. Other conclusions made during this book such as 'all expansion causes bureaucracy' and 'aggressive war is caused by the continued growth of population in a relatively rich society' are all logic consequences of this ecological theory. The more stress on the niches and the less 'freedom of movement' individuals have means more social control and an increasing growing policing force to keep the masses under control. It also means less available resources and possibilities per individual so concluding that 'all poverty is caused by the continued growth of population' appears to be obvious and convincing to me. You might think that today's complex socioeconomic system has fixed these 'primitive' problems but don't be fooled, the underlying mechanisms are still based on the very ecological principles explained in this book, it must be because it is science (it is universally applicable). We can only delay the symptoms.
I really liked this book because it confirmed my assumption that overpopulation is the main cause of all evil developments in human history. It has caused imperialism, colonization, social suppression, 'hardcore' economic systems such as capitalism and many other things that continuously limit our potential and deplete our spirits. Now my assumption is backed by a very simple but powerful ecological theory and it certainly has increased my interest in ecology and its effects on society. From now on, I will take a look into Paul Colinvaux's other books. The last chapter – where he makes projections about the future - might be the least convincing part, but keep in mind that this book is more then 30 years old. For example, he emphasizes the danger of nuclear war which was an hot topic back then (it might still become a reality though).
It would be nice to see a new edition of this book appear on the market (with perhaps an updated finale), the topic and theory is timeless and today's people need to read this kind of stuff. It tells us why a simple tweak in our primitive breeding strategy can make us so much better, a simple solution to what people like to call a very complex problem. I hope my very short review on the theory is correct, an incorrect presentation of it is certainly not my intention!
The ecological theory he has developed is not hard to understand. Its implications are far reaching so you may sometimes have to think a bit through but that is what makes it interesting. Once I saw the obvious relation between his theory and the social developments it explains I realized the power of this theory. Basically he applies two ecologic concepts known as the 'breeding strategy' and 'niches' onto the human species to explain why every society has to undergo the problems associated with growth and decay. The breeding strategy tells us that animals will always try to have as many offspring as the parents can provide for. The many evils of human history are a direct result of this primitive breeding strategy and as long as humans do not change their breeding strategy our species will continue to have hard times. Niches are the available 'slots' nature has available to harbor its many creatures, the numbers of niches give us an idea of the carrying capacity of a certain ecological system (it doesn't make it sustainable but makes it temporarily stable). The niches and the breeding strategy must be in balance. For example, the large technical evolution of the last century created many new niches in society which where filled up by the exploding human population in that same period of time. If the balance is gone, problems arise. If the population rises but the number of available niches remains constant poverty and decay start to appear.
He for example concludes that social oppression is an inevitable consequence of a continuous rising population. Crowding suppresses individual freedom and creates an enormous pressure on the available niches. This means that society will have to develop means to control this situation and a caste system, trade, colonization and empire building are all means of a society to comply to the rule of balance between the available niches and the breeding strategy. These 'fixes' are not sustainable and mostly not humane. Other conclusions made during this book such as 'all expansion causes bureaucracy' and 'aggressive war is caused by the continued growth of population in a relatively rich society' are all logic consequences of this ecological theory. The more stress on the niches and the less 'freedom of movement' individuals have means more social control and an increasing growing policing force to keep the masses under control. It also means less available resources and possibilities per individual so concluding that 'all poverty is caused by the continued growth of population' appears to be obvious and convincing to me. You might think that today's complex socioeconomic system has fixed these 'primitive' problems but don't be fooled, the underlying mechanisms are still based on the very ecological principles explained in this book, it must be because it is science (it is universally applicable). We can only delay the symptoms.
I really liked this book because it confirmed my assumption that overpopulation is the main cause of all evil developments in human history. It has caused imperialism, colonization, social suppression, 'hardcore' economic systems such as capitalism and many other things that continuously limit our potential and deplete our spirits. Now my assumption is backed by a very simple but powerful ecological theory and it certainly has increased my interest in ecology and its effects on society. From now on, I will take a look into Paul Colinvaux's other books. The last chapter – where he makes projections about the future - might be the least convincing part, but keep in mind that this book is more then 30 years old. For example, he emphasizes the danger of nuclear war which was an hot topic back then (it might still become a reality though).
It would be nice to see a new edition of this book appear on the market (with perhaps an updated finale), the topic and theory is timeless and today's people need to read this kind of stuff. It tells us why a simple tweak in our primitive breeding strategy can make us so much better, a simple solution to what people like to call a very complex problem. I hope my very short review on the theory is correct, an incorrect presentation of it is certainly not my intention!
December 21, 2014
An original and provocative investigation into the nature of war between nations. What makes a nation aggressive? (Wealth) What makes a nation victorious? (Wealth and technology) Why big countries win long wars but small countries can win short ones. Which countries have the most to gain from nuclear war? (Britain and Japan) What happened to defeated nations in antiquity? (They were wiped out)
Not all the arguments are convincing, but Colinvaux asks some fascinating and important questions.
Not all the arguments are convincing, but Colinvaux asks some fascinating and important questions.
January 5, 2016
I enjoyed this very much. It's a simplification, of course - but less reductive than many other more recognised and weightier approaches to the sweep of history. And Colinvaux' often counterintuitive observations are never less than thought-provoking.
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December 1, 2020This book by Paul Calinvaux is the best on civilizations and history of war and violence and the author had so lucid manner narrated the how nations fought and Paul says that it's only superior weaponry that established their domination in the World. And this how the superior weaponry since ancient times played a crucial and pivotal role for Western domination. So this book by Paul Calinvaux highly recommend for both academics and for general reader.
December 6, 2022
Mandatory reading book, changed my perspective on how societies are created and extinguished. I'm an ecologist by training so I tend to easily agree with the writer's theories, but I recommend this book to anyone who wants a deeper understanding of human evolution.
August 24, 2023
TERRITORIAL NICHE SPACE PISSINGS
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April 22, 2019The Biology of War
This book is very interesting. It is a book on the ecological and environmental underpinnings of politics and war. Basically, this book is interested in how humanity's historical (and civilized) time has been shaped by Biology; that is, human reproduction. (I mean, of course, the political consequences of human reproduction.) Expanding population often (but not always) translates into expanding power.
...If this is true, looking at both postwar (WWII) population flows and postwar birthrates, one could argue today that it appears southern Europe is likely lost to Islam.
Now, an expanding power? What does that require?
1. Popular hope. Usually, a rising standard of living across all segments of the population that must be maintained.
2. A growing population, This is an almost inevitable consequence of rising hope.
3. Aggressive wars fought to support this rising standard. Ecologically, this is what is meant when people say they are fighting for 'Liberty'. That is, Liberty entails fighting to either maintain or expand a rising standard of living given a growing population.
4.Non-aggressive efforts to increase the standard of living have reached the point of diminishing returns.
5. Also, (of course) "there must be a suitable victim." Someone that is inferior in technology or organization is best.Think of ancient Romes expansion against her neighbors or Britains expansion into North America or Australia.
--Usually, things are no where near as easy as Britain had it.
6. And since things are most usually not that simple, one needs military superiority (in tactics, technology, weapons, etc.) of some sort.
This is a fascinating book that deserves to be on the shelf of anyone interested in understanding the deep structuring forces of World History. It is a shame that it is out of print.
Thoughts
Expanding populations (usually with rising living standards) need expanding resources (land, material, energy, food) and that will be the driver of the next world war. Looking at the map today, I would guess this means the Middle East / Europe. (This book was written forty years ago, long before the first Iraq war. And a bit before the Gulf War.) I think that much that is happening there today has to do with the upsetting of the historical trend of rising standards by the Iraq wars. -Remember, it is not simply rising standards that trigger conflict, it can also occur because one is fighting to maintain rising standards that are in jeopardy. And thanks to the American wars, and also the so-called Arab Spring, they are in jeopardy.
This book is very interesting. It is a book on the ecological and environmental underpinnings of politics and war. Basically, this book is interested in how humanity's historical (and civilized) time has been shaped by Biology; that is, human reproduction. (I mean, of course, the political consequences of human reproduction.) Expanding population often (but not always) translates into expanding power.
...If this is true, looking at both postwar (WWII) population flows and postwar birthrates, one could argue today that it appears southern Europe is likely lost to Islam.
Now, an expanding power? What does that require?
1. Popular hope. Usually, a rising standard of living across all segments of the population that must be maintained.
2. A growing population, This is an almost inevitable consequence of rising hope.
3. Aggressive wars fought to support this rising standard. Ecologically, this is what is meant when people say they are fighting for 'Liberty'. That is, Liberty entails fighting to either maintain or expand a rising standard of living given a growing population.
4.Non-aggressive efforts to increase the standard of living have reached the point of diminishing returns.
5. Also, (of course) "there must be a suitable victim." Someone that is inferior in technology or organization is best.Think of ancient Romes expansion against her neighbors or Britains expansion into North America or Australia.
--Usually, things are no where near as easy as Britain had it.
6. And since things are most usually not that simple, one needs military superiority (in tactics, technology, weapons, etc.) of some sort.
This is a fascinating book that deserves to be on the shelf of anyone interested in understanding the deep structuring forces of World History. It is a shame that it is out of print.
Thoughts
Expanding populations (usually with rising living standards) need expanding resources (land, material, energy, food) and that will be the driver of the next world war. Looking at the map today, I would guess this means the Middle East / Europe. (This book was written forty years ago, long before the first Iraq war. And a bit before the Gulf War.) I think that much that is happening there today has to do with the upsetting of the historical trend of rising standards by the Iraq wars. -Remember, it is not simply rising standards that trigger conflict, it can also occur because one is fighting to maintain rising standards that are in jeopardy. And thanks to the American wars, and also the so-called Arab Spring, they are in jeopardy.
Displaying 1 - 8 of 8 reviews