This was not an easy read for me. The author has remarkable discernment regarding foibles of the medical system, all of which my fifty years in the medical establishment has been apparent to me - real people and real pain.
P. 10: To begin, one must understand his coined nouns, such as "fragilista."...the fragilista is one who makes you engage in policies and actions, all artificial, in which the benefits are small and visible, and the side effects potentially severe and invisible."
P. 15: "If you see fraud and do not say fraud, you are a fraud."
P 42: "The record shows that, for society, the richer we become, the harder it gets to live within our means. Abundance is harder for us to handle than scarcity."
P. 44: "the Lucretius problem...the fool believes that the tallest mountain in the world will be equal to the tallest one he has observed."
p. 52: "It is quite perplexing that those from whom we have benefited the most aren't those who have tried to help us (say with 'advice") but rather those who have actively tried - but eventually failed - to harm us."
P. 72: "Every plane crash brings us closer to safety ,improves the system, and makes the next flight safer - those who perish contribute to the overall safety of others." {Just imagine if the FCC investigators would scrutinize every episode of autism arising within 48 hours of receiving an injection would have done to save humanity.}
P. 96: "A little bit of agitation gives resources to souls and what makes the species prosper isn't peace, but freedom."
P. 109: "For we have managed to transfer religious belief into gullibility for whatever can masquerade as science."
P. 110: "...naïve interventionism" (He refers to this a lot with regard to medical interventions, where
the harm can outweigh the good in a healthy person by some magnitude, whereas interventions for the very ill have a higher likelihood of producing benefit with relation to the likelihood of harm.
P. 112: With regard to Semmelweis and is stubborn adherence to the 'ridiculous' notion that the reason women were more likely to die of childbirth in the hospital was because of poor hygiene on the part of physicians - "...one should not expect laurels for bringing the truth."
P. 128: "...The best way to mitigate interventionism is to ration the supply of information, as naturalistically as possible This is hard to accept in the age of the Internet. It has been very hard for me to explain that the more data you get, ,the less you know what's going on, and the more iatrogenics you will cause. People are still under the illusion that "science" means more data.
P. 129: Regarding food disruptions when under the Soviet state he refers to three generations being housed in tight quarters. These provided real links to each other and made them better able to handle dire circumstances. [Might this be the rationale for limiting Easter to ten people?]
P. 133: Political and economic "tail events" are unpredictable, and their probabilities are not scientifically measurable. No matter how many dollars are spent on research, predicting revolutions is not the same as counting cards; humans will never be able to turn politics and economics into the tractable randomness of blackjack."
P. 135: "All I hear is complaints about forecasters, when the next step is obvious yet rarely taken: avoidance of iatrogenics from forecasting. We understand childproofing, but not forecaster-hubris-proofing." [The Imperial model of COVID disastrous deaths comes to mind.]
P. 152: Seneca, a practical decision maker, regarding the ideas about asymmetry central to this book (and life), the key to robustness and antifragility "...is that wisdom in decision making is vastly more important - not just practically, but philosophically - than knowledge."
P. 156: Stoicism is about the domestication, not necessarily the elimination, of emotions. "...the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking."
P. 157: He refers to asymmetry throughout the book - "If you have more to lose than to benefit from events of fate, there is an asymmetry, and not a good one. And such asymmetry is universal." Then he explains fragility in that light.
P 158: "Fragility implies more to lose than to gain, equals more downside than upside, equals (unfavorable) asymmetry" and "Antifragility implies more to gain than to lose, equals more upside than downside, equals (favorable) asymmetry."
P. 255: He infers that the fragilista mistakes "what he does not understand for nonsense."
P. 256: An impressive number of classic scholars are referred to in this comprehensive work, one of them is Nietzsche "...expressed the famous idea that logic excludes - by definition - nuances, and since truth resides exclusively in the nuances, it is a 'useless instrument for finding Truth in the moral and political sciences.'"
P. 258: John Gray, a contemporary political philosopher has been fighting "the prevailing ideas that the Enlightenment is a panacea - treating a certain category of thinkers as Enlightenment fundamentalists. Gray showed repeatedly how what we call scientific progress can be just a mirage.
P. The terms nonlinearity and convexity are frequently used. "Detecting acceleration of harm - applies to anything that entails decision making under uncertainty, and risk management. He states these are most interesting in medicine and technology.
P. 293: One gleeful notation in this book revolves around risk aversion using math. "If you can say something straightforward in a complicated manner with complex theorems, even if there is no large gain in rigor from these complicated equations, people take the idea very seriously. This is according to the "wonderful principle that one should use people's stupidity to have fun."
P. 295: The "Procrustean Bed" (look it up): Do not try to squeeze information into the Procrustean bed, for example, keeping your grandmother in a room that averages 70 degrees, but unfortunately, is both 0 degrees and 140 degrees. "Since a model is by its very nature a simplification. You just don't want the simplification to distort the situation to the point of being harmful." [Imperial model again comes to mind.]
P. 302: "...the interventionista focuses on positive action - doing. Just like positive definitions, we saw that acts of commission are respected and glorified by our primitive minds and lead to, say, naive government interventions that end in disaster, followed by generalized complaints about naive government interventions, as these, it is not accepted, end in disaster, followed by more naive government interventions."
P. 307: On the availability of data, "...we have never had more data than we have now, yet have less predictability than ever. More data - such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street - can make you miss the big truck. When you cross the street, you remove data, anything by the essential threat."
I learned a lot from the antifragility - robust - fragile concepts in this book, all applicable to risk avoidance in life. I am in awe of his awareness of the breaches in trust inflicted on an unsuspecting public for many years. I respect his perspective on the dangers of their interventionism. Thus, five years after this book was published, the cognitive dissonance he displays in twitter-feed adamancy to coerce healthy people's compliance to government mandated (naive intervention) medical intervention astounds me.
Every one of the above significant quotations can be used to undermine the Nuremburg-like situation we are dealing with in 2021 with COVID. No Institutional Review Board (IRB) has approved this global experiment. Never before have pregnant women been invited, no, badgered, to participate as a cohort as part of a sloppy world-wide experiment. No autonomy, no informed consent, no beneficence, no justice can be found in the methodology. The control group was eliminated after a few weeks. The results of the intervention are leaning on a voluntary reporting system (VAERS) that is unknown by many (most?) practitioners and not encouraged by employers.
This well-read, intelligent man who considers himself a risk identifier missed this. Stunning.