A good introduction to value investing, with interesting points made. Regretfully, these points are generally derived from direct quotes from famous investors (Buffett and co.) with not much value added by author. Also, author uses this book as a platform to advertise access to his website which contains the (publicly available) information of 1000s of stocks in one place and crunches a few numbers with it. Access starts at around $500 per year, which seems a bit steep compared to some of the competition and, of course, the fact that the information is freely available. Gathering data builds character.
Author makes a prediction based on fundamentals, which didn’t age very well: (quote) “As of February 2017, the [Projected Future Market Returns] calculation shows that the stock market is likely to return −0.5 percent per year, including dividends, in the next eight years. This paints a very pale picture for future market returns. Only at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000 was the projected return this low.” (Chapter 10)
Well, in February 2017 the S&P500 index stood at 2300, whereas eight years later, in February 2023, it stood around 4300. So that “likely -0.5% total return” didn’t quite transpire.
Author continues: (quote) “But this doesn't mean there won't be opportunities in the stock market. The stock market will continue to cycle, as it always has. It is probably close to one extreme right now. It may swing to the other extreme quicker than average investors are prepared for. In the meantime, it will create tremendous opportunities for those who understand cycles and are well prepared.”
Author lives on a mountain of data and won’t (can’t) even call whether the 2017 market is in a high or low extreme. But, you know, people who understand cycles and are well-prepared will be able to, like, benefit tremendously. If not author, then who?
“Predictions make fools of us all” - you may quote me on that. But I do like the fact that he made one.
In summary then, while I started very positive about this book, as I read I kinda lost my enthusiasm for it. After the introductory chapters, author starts mentioning that “all this data and calculations are available on my website” at least twice per chapter, which gets really old really soon. So while at really appreciate some of the insights presented, in the end I will settle on a (curmudgeonly) 3 stars.