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Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change
In order to succeed in their industries, decision-makers today need to anticipate the future outcomes not only in their own industry but also in society and technology as well. The better their view of the future, the better their decisions--and the bigger their profits–will be. Future Savvy is a hands-on, how-to book on evaluating the business, social, and technology forecasts that appear in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, as well as in specialized sources like government and think-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. Futures analyst Adam Gordon has spent his career deciphering changes and trends in a variety of industries. Now, he shows business leaders how to gain a clearer view of the future, as well • Recognize potential trends and outcomes more effectively • Discount poor and biased forecasts more confidently • Anticipate relevant opportunities and potential threats earlier
- GenresBusiness
294 pages, Hardcover
First published September 24, 2008
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Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews
July 28, 2020
Simplistic but fairly specific approach to forecasting.
December 10, 2008
Adam Gordon explains how to "identify trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change." To the extent possible, he presents the material in layman's terms so that it is accessible to those who have only recently begun a career in business as well as to C-level executives. It will hardly be an "easy read" for the former, to be sure, but he patiently explains the fundamentals (including nomenclature) of forecasting. The audience he has in mind includes decision makers in commercial, policy, and nonprofit sectors but also "ordinary people" in daily life; in fact, he hopes that his book will help almost everyone "to make better judgments about predictions they read and hear, so they can appropriately plan for an profit from the future." Given recent developments in the US economy and their implications and probable impact insofar as the global economy is concerned, the publication of this book is indeed timely.
As Gordon explains, he follows a middle course "between an uncritical reliance on prediction and overcynical dismissal of it" as he examines subjects that include the broad categories of forecasts, evaluation of the forecast information and data, forces "that drive and block change...and how forecasts deal with them," the role of value (or "utility") when determining the direction of and timing of future outcomes, potential problems with trend-based forecasting, issues related to complexity (e.g. the interconnectedness of all elements of the world, how the change of one can affect all others), themes that illuminate the uses and limitations of quantitative forecasting, and approaches to forecasting based on development of alternative futures and scenarios. In Chapter 10, Gordon provides illustrations of the processes of forecast filtering by apply it to sample forecasts that decision makers in business and policy areas might interact with in negotiating the future. "The aim is to demonstrate how examples of real-world foresight may be probed following the principles developed in previous chapters. Then in the next and final chapter, Gordon notes that forecasts "are an indispensable but highly patchy guide to the world of tomorrow" and, for that reason, offers a series of questions (with annotations) that should be asked of any forecast.
As Gordon explains, he follows a middle course "between an uncritical reliance on prediction and overcynical dismissal of it" as he examines subjects that include the broad categories of forecasts, evaluation of the forecast information and data, forces "that drive and block change...and how forecasts deal with them," the role of value (or "utility") when determining the direction of and timing of future outcomes, potential problems with trend-based forecasting, issues related to complexity (e.g. the interconnectedness of all elements of the world, how the change of one can affect all others), themes that illuminate the uses and limitations of quantitative forecasting, and approaches to forecasting based on development of alternative futures and scenarios. In Chapter 10, Gordon provides illustrations of the processes of forecast filtering by apply it to sample forecasts that decision makers in business and policy areas might interact with in negotiating the future. "The aim is to demonstrate how examples of real-world foresight may be probed following the principles developed in previous chapters. Then in the next and final chapter, Gordon notes that forecasts "are an indispensable but highly patchy guide to the world of tomorrow" and, for that reason, offers a series of questions (with annotations) that should be asked of any forecast.
May 22, 2020
Thank you Adam
Excellent popularization of forecasting, with particular emphasis on trends. Adam Gordon shows how important are the forecasts in our daily life, in business and in politics. He reveals the ubiquity and complexity of forecasts. Then he taught us how to unmask forecasts. It is worthwhile to note the intentions of the creators of forecasts: future-influencing forecasts vs future-aligning forecasts. I loved the part about knowledge-framing paradigm shift from the perspective of Foucault and Khun. Adam Gordon can easily explain the complex issues and problems. "Future Savvy" is a book for consumers predictions - for all people aware of the reality around us.
Excellent popularization of forecasting, with particular emphasis on trends. Adam Gordon shows how important are the forecasts in our daily life, in business and in politics. He reveals the ubiquity and complexity of forecasts. Then he taught us how to unmask forecasts. It is worthwhile to note the intentions of the creators of forecasts: future-influencing forecasts vs future-aligning forecasts. I loved the part about knowledge-framing paradigm shift from the perspective of Foucault and Khun. Adam Gordon can easily explain the complex issues and problems. "Future Savvy" is a book for consumers predictions - for all people aware of the reality around us.
April 10, 2012
This is not a book about how to *do* foresight, but rather a book about how to *read* foresight reports produced by others - that is, it is about the development of critical foresight literacy skills. That said, as one who is involved in doing foresight work, I found it quite useful to look at foresight work from this perspective.
Displaying 1 - 4 of 4 reviews