Willem Middelkoop is an intelligent and energetic guy who went from rags to riches in life. I’ve heard him talk about living with his foster parents in Drenthe, then moving on to work for himself from an early age. He’s a real social climber who managed to do everything he took on in life quite well; photographer, real estate speculator, stock exchange/economical expert on Dutch tv, entrepreneur of a big webshop for precious metals, and now international writer. Remarkable and admirable. For this reason, I’ve read several of his books; I like to read autodidacts who have a unique perspective. His Dutch books (translated to “When the dollar drops” & “The permanent oil crisis”) underwhelmed me, because, while interesting future scenarios, they suffered from a lack of economical understanding (for example, peak oil is bunk, price mechanisms make new oil supplies affordable) and unwarranted pessimism.
This book, however, is much better. Middelkoop doesn’t take on an easy task here; in precisely 100 short chapters Middelkoop explains the following; the history of money, central banking, the international dollar system (& the movers and shakers in this system), the high amounts of public debts by government (and the fallout of the financial crisis of ’08), the gold suppression scheme, and a future image of how a new more international system should work. Woof! A lot of meat on this bone – I’ve read about 12 books about the financial crisis alone! A lot more can be said about all these things, but, still, I’ve gotta say Middelkoop managed this challenge quite well. Middelkoop is on the sides of the angels when he tries to make people understand how corrosive central banks and government debts are for economies. For this, I think Middelkoop pulled of an impressive feat; he managed to put into words, clearly written, what many experts can’t seem to get across the masses. However, I glazed over his constant framing of the US as a bad actor in the international area. I’m old enough to remember the Soviet Union, and thus old enough to remember what a real bad international actor is like. Middelkoop also seems kind of blind to the nastier sides of contemporary China and Russia. I’m all for a developed China, but it’s also well-known that rising powers tend to be bellicose and arrogant, why would China be any better? It probably won’t be, so be more mindful of this.
Sometimes the book veers into conspiracy stuff: Middelkoop makes it seem like the gold suppression scheme is an established fact – central banks selling gold strategically to safeguard the dollar’s value. This would mean central banks have acted in unison for over 6 decades, world-wide in order to dump gold and please the US. This simply can’t happen. The sad truth is that governments and international agencies are much less competent than we like to think. The truth is that gold, while a better store of value than fiat, has a lower ROI long-term than stocks or bonds; that's why demand shrinks and prices go flat -- except during run-ups to a financial crisis. Middelkoop never seems to mention this obvious fact. Partly, this has to do with his pessimism about the future, but partly it’s probably wishful thinking as well, since Middelkoop owns a lot of gold himself and speculates on a sharp increase in the gold price. I hesitate to use the “conspiracy thinker” slur, but it simply is apt here. If you follow Middelkoop’s interviews and social media over the years, as I have, it’s clear he tends to take the “altmedia” very seriously – whether it’s 9/11 truth or Ukrainian snipers on the Maidan. (Now, I’m not arguing conspiracies don’t exist, I don’t know, but I like facts more than theories.)
The biggest problem facing developed economies, in my opinion, is the lack of fundamental innovation, i.e. formation of new industries. Think about it: the 90s kicked off with cellphones, internet and all sorts of new digital business models. This created enormous amounts of wealth. We lack similar big money makers. If we had more money makers, we’d be talking a lot less about debt and inflation – not saying they don’t matter! In all developed economies, economic growth has stagnated. We should focus on handling this issue: more science, more entrepreneurship. I also didn’t see much mention of the rise of bitcoin; for now this is still a small industry, but, if successful, bitcoin could replace central banking – at least in part. This is not me saying this, but the IMF. I’d take it more seriously.
If you want to know more about international economics and where we’re heading, “The Big Reset” is a good start.