機率思考：大數據時代，不犯錯的決斷武器

by Robert Matthews, 高英哲 (Translator)

364 pages, Paperback

Published February 22, 2017

About the author

Robert Matthews is a visiting lecturer in science at Aston University, in Birmingham, England. He has published pioneering research in fields ranging from code-breaking to predicting coincidences, and won the internationally renowned Ig Nobel Prize in Physics for his studies of Murphy’s Law, including the reason why toast so often lands butter-side down. An award-winning science writer, he has contributed to many newspapers and magazines world-wide, and is currently science consultant for Focus magazine, a flagship BBC publication.

Reviews

[Roy · Rating 4 out of 5]

Scientific studies have long shown we humans are notoriously bad at making sensible judgements involving probability and uncertainty. For one thing, the true effects of the universe's probability machine are nebulous and hard for us to wrap our heads around given the limited amount of life experiences we're exposed to and the relatively short lifespans we have. And yet probability permeates many aspects of our society, such as insurance, weather forecast, gambling, scientific research methodology, criminal evidence, medical treatment, etc., and is something we inevitably have to deal with from time to time. Reading this book is a good first step towards unmasking and possibly acquainting ourselves with some of our cognitive fallacies in that respect. The author quotes various everyday examples to point out the erroneous assessments, mistaken inferences, and faulty conclusions people routinely make that often lead to misguided decisions, public opinions, and even policymaking. Most of the cited examples should be familiar to many readers, and after reading the book, perhaps we'll be a bit smarter and more skeptical the next time we come across some eye-catching news headlines touting half-truths disguised as legitimate scientific findings.

[Birdong · Rating 4 out of 5]

算是近期讀到蠻喜歡的科普書籍，從機率的無常性開始談起，扭轉生活中離奇的巧合其實也就是一種機率的偶然現象。慢慢的談到貝氏定理於學術研究上有何運用（相當難懂）到目前大行其道的數據科學，以及被動式的指數投資。天氣預報的準確度80%應該如何解讀？世上所有事情都能呈現鐘型的常態分佈嗎？是否只要數據夠大，我們就能找到隱微其中的奧妙關聯性？機率這個現象在生活中幾乎無所不在，我們能確定的大概就只有沒有100%確定的事，讀完這本我自己感覺收益良多，相當推薦給對於機率、數據、思考偏誤有興趣的讀者。