At 20 years old, without having taken any economics courses in college, he started at the bottom of the ladder, delivering securities and checks. After a month, he was promoted as an assistant to the bond department, and just six weeks later, with his advanced intellect, Graham was writing a daily market letter.
value investing is not a panacea. Cheap can get cheaper. Rich can get richer. Margins of safety can be miscalculated, and value can fail to materialize.
immune to the shortterm vicissitudes of the market
There are literally dozens of other companies which also have a quoted value less than their cash in bank…. This means that a great number of American businesses are quoted in liquidating value; that in the best recent judgment of Wall Street, these businesses are worth more dead than alive.
You'll never believe that a stock that falls 50% in a year might not necessarily be a bargain. You have to catch a few of these falling knives
“They said there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it's not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”
Paine Webber as a board boy, earning $6 a week. While he was learning about the market, young Livermore kept a journal, recording fictional trades. After 18 months of preparation, he visited a bucket shop, which were places where investors, mostly amateurs, could trade.
When our positions go against us, it's easy to hold on, but it's even easier to compound the problem by adding to the position. Adding to a losing position has been the downfall of many investors. “If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”
unlike Twain, had no problem cutting his losses.
The best way to avoid the catastrophic losses is to decide before you invest how much you're willing to lose, either in percentage or dollar terms. This way, your decisions will be driven by logic rather than fear
it doesn't just matter how smart you are, it matters how smart your competition is.
At one point, they had $1.25 trillion in open positions and they were levered 100:1. This leverage would lead to one of the largest disappearing acts of wealth the world has ever seen.
they calculated that their daily VAR, or value at risk (how much they could lose). It was the beginning of the end.
I rank this Bogle invention along with the invention of the wheel, the alphabet, Gutenberg printing, and wine and cheese
Michael Steinhardt is one of those people who was born to pick stocks. In his autobiography, No Bull, he talks about how his interest in stock investing began when he was 13 years old.
This isn't to say you should never venture outside your comfort zone, after all, if you never expand your horizons, you'll never learn. But if you are going to invest in areas that you're less familiar with, read the fine print, keep your investments small at first, and limit your losses to fight another day.
like bowling with bumpers in the gutters. He was throwing the ball as hard as he could, and it was working.
Don't confuse brains with a bull market!
Buffett certainly was aware of some of the business challenges Dexter faced, but as Alice Schroeder described in her wonderful biography, The Snowball, “Here he was a little outside his ‘circle of competence,’
Five years ago we had no thought of getting into shoes. Now we have 7,200 employees in that industry, and I sing “There's No Business Like Shoe Business” as I drive to work…. Finally, and of paramount importance, Harold and Peter can be sure that they will get to run their business – an activity they dearly love exactly as they did before the merger. At Berkshire, we do not tell .400 hitters how to swing.
Buffett and Munger made the mistake of not making sure the business had a moat and being too focused on what they thought was an attractive purchase price.”
Do you know more than the person on the other side of the trade? Do you know something that's not in the newspaper or on the Internet?
Know when you're wrong; use price levels, dollar loss levels, or percentage loss levels. Making decisions ahead of time, especially decisions that involve admitting defeat, can help conquer one of the biggest hurdles investors face
Daniel Kahneman say, “Ideas are part of who we are. They become like possessions.
Even when we're presented with evidence that disconfirms our previous views, straying far from our original feelings is too painful for most to bear.
By definition, activist investors are public, because once you acquire 5% of a company, you must file a 13D registration with the Security and Exchange Commission. Short positions, however, do not have to be disclosed
Herbalife, he contends, is a pyramid scheme. “Where your money's made is not serving smoothies. Where your money's made is having hundreds, or tens, or thousands of distributors around the globe who are working.”
No stone is left unturned. No cutlet is left uncooked, as Winston Churchill once said.
We simply want the truth to come out. If distributors knew the probability of making $95,000 a year – which is the millionaire team, as they call it— was a fraction of 1 percent, no one would ever sign up for this. And we simply exposed that fact. The company has done their best to try to keep that from the general public.
This is one of the dangerous things about shorting a stock; technically the upside is unlimited.
The key to successful investing, especially when you're a contrarian, is to have people agree with you later.
Ackman didn't need the money. If his investors were the only ones who knew about his position, he could easily have said we're wrong, covered his position, and moved on. But apparently he would rather preserve his reputation than his investor's capital.
Aside from the mental and emotional costs of watching a stock you short go against you, there is an actual financial cost to borrow the shares. You would think that at some point, regardless of how compelling the case against Herbalife is, his investors will scream uncle.
Cullen Roche said, “The stock market is the only market where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store….”
The spread between investment returns and investor returns is known as the behavior gap
The market is notorious for forcing unforced errors.
Druckenmiller reportedly earned 30% a year for 30 years by throwing conventional wisdom in the trash can: The first thing I heard when I got in the business, not from my mentor, was bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.
so he took his gains and went back to where his bread was buttered, global macro.
“But I overplayed my hand.”
He couldn't bear to see Quantum grinding its gears as a bunch of small‐potato upstarts were racking up huge returns.
emotional basketcase
There's an old adage in finance, “Concentrate to get rich, diversify to stay rich.”
If you put in tens or maybe even hundreds of hours into researching a company, the sunk cost is very real, and potentially very expensive. The more time you've spent coming to a conclusion, the harder it is to change your mind.
you're more likely to add to the position than you are to come to the conclusion that you missed something. If you loved the stock at $100, at $90 you're buying more, and at $80 you're thanking the market gods for this opportunity
Mike Pearson was certainly shareholder focused, but that is where he and Warren Buffett's similarities ended. Talking about Pearson, Buffett said, “If you're looking for a manager you want someone who is intelligent, energetic, and moral. But if they don't have the last one, you don't want them to have the first two.”
The cost of raising a child today is $233,610. 1 This is a 41% increase over the past 15 years, or 2.3% a year. 2 From gasoline to food to education and raising children, prices tend to rise over time. Staying ahead of inflation is why millions of Americans invest.
the purpose of investing is to defer current consumption for future benefit
This is the most addictive game on the planet because it's a game that never ends. The pieces are always zigging and zagging and by the time you think you've got things figured out, new rules are implemented. Where are interest rates today and where are they going tomorrow? How has the economy performed over the past 12 months and what will the next 12 look like? How are markets behaving? And not just stocks, but what about currencies and commodities and real estate and bonds?
How fast is the overall market growing and how fast are investors expecting Apple to grow? Even if we have clairvoyance on the most important driver of long‐term returns, earnings, it wouldn't be enough to ensure success. The missing ingredient, which cannot be modeled by all the PhDs in the world, is investor's moods and expectations.
John Maynard Keynes. He once said that: Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs…each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors…
Keynes wrote several international best‐selling books, revolutionized institutional asset management, and practically built the global monetary system as we know it. He designed England's financing of World War II, and he was hugely influential in designing the Bretton Woods agreement, which established the postwar global monetary system. When Keynes died, the obituary in The Times read, “To find an economist of comparable influence, one would have to go back to Adam Smith.” 11 Keynes was so far ahead of his time that when John Kenneth Galbraith reviewed his seminal work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
If you can buy something for less than its intrinsic value, you give yourself a better chance over the long‐term than trying to outguess your competition over the short‐term.
our portfolios are marked to market every day
Keynes is incorrectly attributed to have said: “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.”
Quit while you're ahead. All the best gamblers do. —Baltasar Gracian
we tend to attribute the success more to skill than we do to randomness.
he specialized in merger arbitrage. This strategy involves simultaneously buying and selling short the stocks of two merging companies. The trade is executed based on the likelihood that the deal will close. But merger arbitrage is a relatively boring slice of the hedge fund world, and this strategy is not what put John Paulson on the map.
The problem was that you can't short a house, so they had to figure out a different way to bet against the market. They learned about credit default swaps, insurance contracts that allow you to bet against the debt of companies. His first foray into shorting the housing market was purchasing credit default swaps on MBIA Inc., which insured mortgage bonds. For $500,000 a year, Paulson could purchase $100 million worth of insurance against the debt of MBIA Inc. 10 In 2005, he bought more credit default swaps, this time on two big lenders, Countrywide Financial and Washington Financial.
We're all overconfident to begin with, and huge gains make our feet levitate off the ground.
he wanted to buy something that could become even more valuable in an inflationary environment. The answer was gold. Gold has lost 30% since its high in 2011. The following year, the fund slipped another 14%, and it still hasn't recovered.
Imagine that you were physically exchanging stock certificates with Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies every time you went to buy or sell a stock. This is who you're playing against. The idea that you will stumble upon riches by dumb luck alone is possible, but a little naive.
Munger lost 31.9% in 1973 (versus a negative 13.1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average) and another 31.5% in 1974 (compared to a –23.1% for the Dow). Munger said: “We got drubbed by the 1973 to 1974 crash
Anything that compounds for a long time must decompound at some point in time.
You know Steve Jobs and his early partner Steve Wozniak, but the name Ronald Wayne likely means nothing to you. Wayne was the third founder of Apple, but the reason his name is erased from the history books is because in 1976 he sold his 10% stake in the company for $800. 4 Apple is currently worth north of $900 billion!
You can't hold a candle to the Taiwanese and the Koreans. I was like no dice man, let this guy go.” GoPro went public in 2014 at a valuation just below $3 billion. He didn't think they could beat Google, which was developing its own file‐sharing service, Drive. He went so far as to recommend that Dropbox pursue a different path. Lucky for Dropbox, they didn't take his advice. Sacca estimates his decision to not invest in Dropbox cost him “hundreds of millions of dollars.” 13 At close to a $10 billion valuation, Dropbox is one of the biggest misses of Sacca's career.
Harry Markowitz who practically invented modern portfolio theory
I've cut my winners short and let my losers run.
I was sending my résumé all over the place, but I should have done more. I wish I had the chutzpah to email strangers and walk into branches, but I didn't yet have the confidence to do that.
I would later find out that this cognitive bias is so common that there's a name for it; it's called “the illusion of control.”
Overtrading is probably the most common mistake that novice investors make, and I was no exception.
If you are ready to give up everything else and study the whole history and background of the market and all principal companies whose stocks are on the board as carefully as a medical student studies anatomy‐ if you can do all that and in addition you have the cool nerves of a gambler, the sixth sense of 2 a clairvoyant and the courage of a lion, you have a ghost of a chance.
A lot of people will credit their success to luck, but you can usually tell when they're full of it, when it's a thin veil of false humility shrouded on top of a giant ego.