A beneficial exploration of cyber proxies and their use by the United States, Russia, China, and Iran. The key takeaway from this book is that our potential adversaries have a much more comprehensive view of operations in cyberspace than we do. In most of the military meetings discussing cyberspace that I’ve participated in, the focus very rarely diverts from how to stop adversaries from conducting cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure (power plants, electric grids, dams, etc). While that is a legit concern, foreign nations are significantly more interested in information operations that have the power to influence the broader political outcome than they are in any military application. Russian efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election being exhibit A. Overall, the book was rather dry and academic but I still think it a very useful read for helping those of us in the United States to gain a greater understanding of how potential adversaries think and operate. In turn, it should lead to much deeper thought and discussion when we develop our own strategies for combating these challenges. 3 stars.
What follows are my notes on the book:
The author defines Cyber Proxies as “intermediaries that conduct or directly contribute to an offensive cyber action that is enabled knowingly, whether actively or passively, by a beneficiary. This broad definition covers the phenomenon of states committing to support specific proxies as well as states omitting to take certain actions and turning a blind eye to a non-state actor’s malicious actions” (xi). The author argues that projecting coercive power through cyberspace is not only a state-centric affair but often a dynamic interplay between state and non-state actors that raises important questions over control, authority, and the legitimacy of the use of cyber capabilities. Interviewing many players involved in the cyber-attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the interviewees were significantly more interested in the impact of information operations on the broader political outcome than they were the military applications of the attacks. A view that was ahead of its time considering the cyber meddling/information operations on the 2016 US presidential election (xii).
The book has three main arguments: 1) it is important to focus on proxies, not just states, in the cyber domain, 2) state use of cyber proxies is not that different from how states have used conventional proxies throughout history, and 3) there is a new diffusion of reach which allows state and non-state actors to cause effects remotely across vast distances through offensive cyber operations (xiv).
There is no agreed upon definition for cybersecurity. States like Russia and China consider content an information security threat whereas others, like the US, consider content and the free flow of information a human right. The latter states exclude content from their definitions and use the term cybersecurity. The former frame their scope of concerns as information security (6).
The ability to cause harm is not a significant differentiator between state and non-state hackers above a certain, fairly low level of technical sophistication. Consequently, cyber proxies can cause significant harm and pose a security threat from a national and international security perspective (13). In fact, today some individuals have more sophisticated cyber capabilities than many nation-states. What are cyber proxies used for? For operating in “the space between” diplomacy or sanctions and military action. There is a lot of things that you can do in that space between those tools to accomplish the national interest (14).
Cyber proxies are not all the same. They could be individual hacktivists or criminals, networks of the same, or organized groups like militias, private companies, or criminal organizations (17).
Three main types of proxy relationships can be identified: 1) delegation, where the beneficiary has overall control over the proxy and delegates authority to act on its behalf (principal-agent theory), 2) orchestration, state supported but without direct control or specific instructions (usually accompanied by string ideological bond), and 3) sanctioning, passive support or deliberately turning a blind eye to non-state activities (safe havens(20). Each of these will be shown in the case studies presented later in the book. The author chooses to classify proxies by degree of control rather than their intent because proxies’ motives could be multi-faceted and change over time (22).
By 2015, attitudes towards the question of attribution have changed dramatically. The question is not if, but when attribution can be made. It is also not viewed as a binary choice but a question of degree. However, robust attribution remains challenging and is often not available within the timeframe that decision makers might need to act in a national security context (23-24).
Proxies have been an instrument of power since ancient times: mercenaries, auxiliaries, and privateers have been in use since the Peloponnesian War in the 4th century B.C. Both the US and the USSR used proxies heavily during the Cold War (29). What they all had in common was that they are not legally part of the government to which they are attached.
The author lays out a framework to explain the various combinations of beneficiary-proxy relationships: state/state (think Cold War client states), state/non-state (like private security contractors), non-state/state (think organized crime utilizing weak states), and non-state/non-state (al-Qaeda franchises) (34).
Four conditions must be met for proxy relationships to develop: 1) actors detached from the state must be available to act as proxies, 2) the state has a perceived need, 3) the state must have the ability to mobilize actor to function as proxies, and 4) the proxy must also benefit from the relationship (36).
There is a general shortage of skilled labor in this field, both for states and non-state actors. So if military cyber warriors cannot develop or retain the talent, it will naturally find itself in a position where it has no choice but to rely on proxies (39).
Thinking back to the distinction between cybersecurity and information security, some of the most high profile cyber attacks against the US were driven by content, not military concerns (Sony, being the most prominent example) (51). The Russian campaign against the 2016 elections were in large part driven by their fight against Clinton for her encouraging protest against Putin along with the leak of the Panama Papers (that exposed Russian doping and offshore financial shenanigans. The release of DNC emails was likely viewed as tit-for-tat information operations (54). The US meanwhile, continues to view offensive cyber operations as distinct from information and psychological operations (55).
Lawyers struggle thanks to the artificial distinction between espionage and operations designed to deliver effects where the only distinction is intent.
Perhaps more than any other country, Russia is alarmed over the cognitive aspects of cyber issues as much as their technical aspects. Russian policy emphasizes internal stability as the death blow to the USSR came not from NATO conventional forces but from imperialist information war (58). The color revolution in Georgia, Ukraine and the Arab Spring of 2011 fueled the Kremlin’s perception of the threat. Putin feared the US had finally developed a magic tool that could bring people to the streets via the internet (60).
Like Russia, China too has a strong tendency to view information as a threat. The Communist Party still reigns. Russia and China differ noticeably when it comes to projection of cyber offensive power. Russia is exclusively focused on information operations while China has both an information ops and a offensive cyber focus. While the US silos emerged between electronic warfare, psychological operations, and cyber operations, China has pursued an integrated framework (63).
Chapter 4: Cyber Proxies on a Tight Leash: The United States. Private security contractors are a classic example of delegation and principal-agent relationships. This is an extension of the US practice of outsourcing functions to the private sector and defense contractors (79).
Chapter 5: Cyber proxies on a Loose Leash: Iran and Syria. Iran had a rude wake-up call to the danger posed by cyberspace following the 2009 Stuxnet malware hit them. Khameni urged the nations students to get ready for war in cyberspace. In a few short years, Iran’s capability has evolved rapidly, ad proxies have played a key role. Like Russia and China, Iran’s actions are driven by the need for regime stability. Iran was not about to be the next to fall in the Arab Spring. They required Internet cafes to collect user’s personally identifiable information (PII) and Internet service providers to share data on their customers with the government (81-82). HE argues there are similarities with how Iran uses cyber proxies and their use of students during the 1979 hostage crisis. Spontaneous action by the students later gave way to regime approval and support. In 2010, students hackers began actions on their own becoming proxies to Iran. The government is aware of their activities, but are failing to take any appropriate steps to compel them to stop.
Chapter 6: Cyber Proxies on the Loose: The Former Soviet Union. Russia and its former satellites most closely display sanctioning behavior (where they could stop the activity but don’t because they consciously but indirectly benefit from proxies hitting third parties). These countries stand out for their many individuals with strong technical skills (a remnant of their strong university system with heavy focus on math and engineering). With the collapse of the USSR, a highly educated and literate society saw unemployment skyrocket and the economy not be able to absorb all the talent. With weak law enforcement and opportunity for huge profit, illicit activities became very attractive. The state could stop this, and does whenever the victims are Russian. But as long as the criminals continue to target the US and Europe, enforcement remains non-existent (94-95). Because they refuse to cooperate with US law enforcement, the US has been capturing criminals whenever they leave the country, thanks to our large extradition policies with so many countries. Russia, in turn views this as systematic kidnapping of its citizens. Both the in Estonia (2007) and Ukraine (2015), were clear cases of the Russian government sanctioning cyber operations and doing little to put an end to them. In the war with Gerogia in 2008, proxy actions were coordinated and synchronized with a military attack. There is circumstantial evidence that the government was involved with these (the DDoS C2 servers were located in Russia, the infrastructure was operated by cyber criminal organizations, the attack was coordinated in known Russian hacker forums) (102). The US has sought cooperation with Russia to no avail; in fact the Russian FSB unit that is supposed to coordinate with the FBI was heavily involved in the cyber attacks on Yahoo. In conclusion, the combination of economic hardship, relative impunity, and high reward, has created an environment in which malicious cyber activity has flourished in Russia.
Chapter 7: Change over Time: China’s Evolving Relationships with Cyber Proxies. Over the past two decades, China’s relationship with cyber proxies has evolved from permiting malicious behavior, to creating institutions and structures to orchestrate private actors, to eventually tightening the leash further to delegation (107). These three phases largely coincided with the tenures of China’s last three leaders: Jiang Zemin (1994-2003), Hu Jintao (2003-2013), and Xi Xinping (2013-present). The latter consolidated power through a series of widespread crackdowns and institutionalized incentive mechanisms. The distinction between state and private sector is very different from the US. Companies like Huawei and ZTE aspire to be normal but have shadow boards run by the communist party that can override management (108). China also seeks to blur the lines between military and civilian actors. Per thir most recent military strategy argued that since military and civilian cyber attacks are hard to distinguish, the PLA should persist in the integration of peace and war and the integration of military and civilian activities such that in peacetime, civilians hide the military and in wartime the civilians and military join hands and attack together (108). While many Western hackers have a strong, anti-government mentality, China has cultivated a very string since of patriotism, directing their attacks at external enemies. China did actually make some changes (how long they last is yet to be determined) after talks on preventing cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property for competitive advantage (espionage against the government remains fair game). In 2015, China made further moves towards a monopolistic state in this domain when they reformed the PLA with the creation of a Strategic Support Force that consolidated military cyber capabilities. They have also expanded domestic control by expanding the militia system, creating stronger ties with hacktivists. With weak enforcement and so many hacktivists, China has moved to coopt them rather than crack down on them.
The author discusses the DIME(LE) [Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Law Enforcement) toolset for possible ways to influence cyber proxies at home and abroad. Private companies (like Sony, and banks) are expressing growing interest in “hacking back” due to the inaction of government to address the challenges that are impacting their bottom line, some companies going as far as to position counter-attack capabilities offshore to avoid legal troubles.
Conclusion: While inter-state war has been in decline since WWII, use of proxies has only grown. The author concludes with X key findings: 1) projecting coercive power thru cyberspace is not a state-centric affair but a dynamic interplay between state and proxies. 2) States use proxies for a wide variety of purposes, not limited to projecting power abroad. 3) Categorizing proxies by intent or motive is not particularly helpful. 4) There are three main types of proxy relationships: delegation, orchestration, and sanctioning. 5) Countries pursue different models for proxy relationships but face similar challenges in managing the relationships and balancing the cost and risk of escalation.