Beyond NATO: A New Security Architecture for Eastern Europe

by Michael E. O'Hanlon

In this new Brookings Marshall Paper, Michael O’Hanlon argues that now is the time for Western nations to negotiate a new security architecture for neutral countries in eastern Europe to stabilize the region and reduce the risks of war with Russia. He believes NATO expansion has gone far enough. The core concept of this new security architecture would be one of permanent neutrality. The countries in question collectively make a broken-up arc, from Europe’s far north to its south: Finland and Sweden; Ukraine, Moldova, and Belarus; Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; and finally Cyprus plus Serbia, as well as possibly several other Balkan states. Discussion on the new framework should begin within NATO, followed by deliberation with the neutral countries themselves, and then formal negotiations with Russia.

The new security architecture would require that Russia, like NATO, commit to help uphold the security of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other states in the region. Russia would have to withdraw its troops from those countries in a verifiable manner; after that, corresponding sanctions on Russia would be lifted. The neutral countries would retain their rights to participate in multilateral security operations on a scale comparable to what has been the case in the past, including even those operations that might be led by NATO. They could think of and describe themselves as Western states (or anything else, for that matter). If the European Union and they so wished in the future, they could join the EU. They would have complete sovereignty and self-determination in every sense of the word. But NATO would decide not to invite them into the alliance as members. Ideally, these nations would endorse and promote this concept themselves as a more practical way to ensure their security than the current situation or any other plausible alternative.

Genres: Politics, History, International Affairs

171 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 15, 2017

Reviews

[Sujit · Rating 4 out of 5]

NATO Expands, Russia pushes back. The expansion of NATO has become a point of contention in Moscow. Russia objects to NATO pushing closer to its borders. For many Russians," if NATO was still a military alliance... it must be directed against some country and the Russian Federations was the obvious target".

In 1999 NATO bombed Serbian forces in the former Soviet state of Yugoslavia. For NATO it was an attempt to stop the murderous Slobodan Milosevic. While Russians saw this as western aggression and overreach. Many such incidents within past years have just worsened the situation.

Although this book was published in 2017, the contents are still valid.

[Robert Clarke · Rating 5 out of 5]

Mr. O'Hanlon's "Beyond NATO" offers a glimpse into the thinking behind how we could stabilize relations with Russia before the war in Ukraine. Written in 2017, it now may seem quaint to readers, but I believe it's view of an "Eastern European Security Architecture" that created a slate of neutral states between Russia and NATO offers valuable insights into a path that perhaps could have prevented this war, and maybe could paint a future path of stable relations once it ends.

His viewpoint is a strong middle road between Western and Russian interests that explores strategic empathy that could go a long way today. No aspects of his ideas will take root as this war drags on, but in a tentative post-war peace, it could prevent future conflict and create a stable European security system that ensures prosperity for Ukraine and others moving forward.

[Lucille Nguyen · Rating 3 out of 5]

While this book fairly represents some of the political history of the region, the proposals within it are rather sparse. Institutions do not spring up from the aether, a convincing account of how and why such an alternative security architecture as proposed by O'Hanlon might actually happen is shockingly (and perhaps deliberately because of the difficulty of building international institutions) missing.