A History of the Future: Prophets of Progress from H.G. Wells to Isaac Asimov

by Peter J. Bowler

In this wide-ranging survey, Peter J. Bowler explores the phenomenon of predictions about the future development and impact of science and technology on society and culture in the twentieth century. Utilising science fiction, popular science literature and the novels of the literary elite, Bowler highlights contested responses to the potential for revolutionary social change brought about by real and imagined scientific innovations. Charting the effect of social and military developments on attitudes towards innovation in Europe and America, Bowler shows how conflict between the enthusiasm of technocrats and the pessimism of their critics was presented to the public in books, magazines and exhibitions, and on the radio and television. A series of case studies reveals the impact of technologies such as radio, aviation, space exploration and genetics, exploring rivalries between innovators and the often unexpected outcome of their efforts to produce mechanisms and machines that could change the world.

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Science, Technology, Reference

298 pages, Hardcover

First published October 4, 2017

About the author

Peter J. Bowler, FBA, is a historian of biology who has written extensively on the history of evolutionary thought, the history of the environmental sciences, and on the history of genetics.

Reviews

[Nicholas Whyte · Rating 4 out of 5]

https://nwhyte.livejournal.com/2938907.html

Twenty-five years ago, Peter Bowler was my PhD supervisor in Belfast; I owe him a lot. He had made his reputation a decade earlier with Evolution: The History of an Idea, and had managed to find a rhythm of writing a scholarly book a year, riffing off the general possibilities of the history of evolutionary biology. Recently, in retirement, he's been veering a little bit further from his usual territory. In Darwin Deleted: Imagining a World without Darwin (2013), he imagined what would have happened in science in an alternate timeline where Darwin had drowned during the voyage of the Beagle, something he had been muttering about doing for years. This year, in A History of the Future: Prophets of Progress from H.G. Wells to Isaac Asimov, he has surveyed futurology as perpetrated both by science fiction writers and by popular science writers, mainly in the UK but looking also at the USA, in the first two-thirds of the twentieth century.

People like me who read a fair amount of academic and fannish commentary on sf literature will be a bit thrown by this approach. Peter Bowler has unapologetically put technology and other scientific advances, real or imagined, at the centre of the narrative, and crunches everything down to nine shortish chapters, on How We'll Live, Where We'll Live, Communicating and Computing, Getting Around, Taking to the Air, Journey into Space, War, Energy and Environment, and Human Nature. He makes the point very strongly that the First World War made a much bigger difference to the Zeitgeist than the Second; there is much more continuity in terms of vision and concerns between 1939 and 1945 than between 1914 and 1918.

There are some interesting misses and hits along the way. Lord Birkenhead, writing in 1930 about the world of 2030, expected that “Instead of party politics, our descendants will probably be content with the rule of experts, who will seek popular sanction for each measure they purpose through a referendum.” (Hollow laugh.) On the other hand, A.M. Low correctly saw the potential of telephones:

"In his Wireless Possibilities, Low predicted that in a few years’ time it would be possible to talk to a recipient anywhere in the world, even when flying on an aeroplane. Five years later, he made a similar point in one of his regular Armchair Science features: ‘I shall be glad when we have made wireless sufficiently selective to enable me to ring up during every rail journey I make and talk direct to my friends.’ Note that his concern was the problem of interference between transmitters, not miniaturization. He also recognized that there would be a downside to the facility: ‘Why should I inflict a description of my mother’s children to a radius of six yards, until all those around are driven to fury … ?’ Low thus not only predicted the mobile phone – he realized what a nuisance they could become when used in public."

There are lots of good nuggets here, including the frightening irresponsibility of some early supporters of nuclear power, who nonchalantly discussed melting the ice caps and re-engineering coastlines with atomic weapons. There is a tension also between those who thought that women being liberated from housework and reproduction would bring benefits and those who feared the costs to society. (It would be interesting to know the extent to which feminists interacted with these discussions.)

[Wendelle]

this book's pretty much a bibliography or resource list of the previous century's science fiction or pulp fiction, with chapters divided according to topics such as city organization, transportation, communication, etc. and then documenting what the various sf publications envisioned of that by our era.

[Brian Clegg · Rating 3 out of 5]

Having just read What's Next, a book of futurology, it was quite interesting to move onto a book about futurology - specifically futurology in the first half of the twentieth century before it became such a recognised entity in its own right.

It's interesting that in the subtitle, Peter Bowler chooses H. G. Wells and Isaac Asimov to bracket the periods he is covering, as both are better known as science fiction writers than for their non-fiction. Although Bowler does bring in a number of 'straight' writers on the future, he doesn't draw a hard line between science fiction and futurology, which makes a lot of sense. As he points out, while there have always been SF writers who go way beyond extrapolation to the near future - think, for example, E. E. 'Doc' Smith's wide ranging space operas or Asimov's Foundation series - there has equally always been plenty of science fiction where we are dealing with the near future and science/technology that is based on what's current. And while the purpose of science fiction is not to predict the future, science fiction writers inevitably speculate about what is to come.

Personally, I found the content of the book very interesting, but the way that it was presented less so. Although I had heard of many of the books that Bowler references and read some of them, from Bernal's quirky futurology in The World, The Flesh and The Devil (not a Hammer Horror as the title suggests) to Brave New World, there was plenty in here that was new to me. I wasn't aware, for example, that there was a lot of interest in renewable energy in the first half of the twentieth century. Though driven more by concerns about running out of oil than climate change it seems the ideas were ahead of the technology. Apparently, for example, the British Empire Exhibition, held at Wembley in 1924, featured a discussion of alternative power sources, taking in geothermal, tidal, solar and wind.

Another interesting point that Bowler makes frequently is the distinction between the future visions of those with a science and engineering background - usually overly rosy - and those from a literary background - mostly distinctly dystopian. The visions of the future both in non-fiction and fiction seemed strongly tied to the level (or lack) of scientific expertise in the writer.

Lots of information, then. Unfortunately, though, it was quite heavy going to read, because most of it consists of unadulterated collections of facts. 'X said Y in 19zz in this publication.' There's very little in the way of narrative flow, which makes it stodgy to digest. On top of this, the approach taken can feel quite repetitive. I think this is because Bowler has chosen to split up the book by topic - but futurology or science fiction rarely covers a single future topic, so we get the same books mentioned over and over again. Brave New World, for example, is mentioned in over a dozen places. H. G. Wells alone takes up half a page in the index.

I don't think I can recommend this book as popular science or (or even popular history of science communication). However, it certainly should be of interest to anyone who has an academic interest in either science fiction or futurology. And that definitely includes me.

[Odile · Rating 5 out of 5]

Pure gold

[Tommy Koch · Rating 3 out of 5]

It’s neat to see how people thought the future was going to be, but I found it to be almost common sense. Photographs and figures throughout were pretty cool.

[Joseph Spuckler · Rating 4 out of 5]

A History of the Future: Prophets of Progress from H. G. Wells to Isaac Asimov by Peter J Bowler is look back on science-fiction prophecy and what the future actually became. Bowler is Emeritus Professor of the History of Science at Queen's University Belfast. He is a Fellow of the British Academy, a Member of the Royal Irish Academy, and a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He has published a number of books on the history of biology and several general surveys.

Flying cars, wristwatch phones, and robot servants were all part of the future when I was young.  There was plenty of disappointment growing up with 8-track tapes and phones that were still affixed to the wall.  Some things, however, did come about.  The electronic pad that Captain Kirk regularly signed is close to an iPad, the computer may be an advanced “Alexa” device, and the communicator is much like a cellphone.  Yes, there are differences but not bad for a 50-year-old science fiction show that begins with the launch of the Enterprise in the year 2245.

Bowler pulls heavily from several writers in the book; Wells, Huxley, and a little Asimov and Clarke.  Perhaps much of the predictions of the future as more so come from the understanding of man than science.  One thing many writers got right is man’s willingness for war and creating better weapons.  Airships and aircraft are a means for more destructive warfare that targets cities and civilians.  Much of the pulp fiction, however, are stories of “cowboys and Indians” played out in space as earthlings against aliens.  Little is done to explain the technology of ray guns and rockets.  It’s just entertainment.

Many future predictions in science fiction were based on the newest technology of the time. Electricity was more than a power source it was the path to utopia.  Radiation, on the other hand, could be a blessing or a bane.  Flying cars, an idea which seems to be as old as cars themselves is never clearly thought out.  Thought to be the end of road-bound traffic, however, no thought, however, is given how to organize and control an airborne rush hour.  Outside of the science, many thoughts are given on future governments -- World government, weakness of democracy, totalitarian rule, interplanetary rule.  

As I sit here and write this review there is one thing the past never predicted.  There were predictions of robots with computer brains.  There are predictions of computers the size of city blocks. But perhaps the biggest miss of science fiction predictions is the personal computer.  The machine that has transformed modern life like no other is missing.  No internet.  No social media.  No online shopping.  No movies on demand.  It is the unexpected that makes the future.

Bowler gives a detailed look at the past looking forward.  Nearly one-third of the book is source material providing, even more, detail for those interested.  How the past saw the future is interesting in the evolution of the newest technology of the time.  Nuclear power held the promise of almost free electricity (another marvel of the past) but no thought of what to do with the nuclear waste.  Visionaries of the past did understand human nature and saw the many dangers the atom could bring as well as the dangers man could bring on himself.  The history of the future depends on man's development as much as the development of science.

[George Siehl · Rating 5 out of 5]

An outstanding account of the predictive role of science writing and science fiction in the later development of technology. It serves as both a roll call of science fiction literature to be examined and as a recall of books that have been read but now have a new degree of importance. The author, Peter J. Bowler, is a noted evolutionary biologist and writer on the history of science. In his preface, he writes, " I have confined myself to the first two-thirds of the twentieth century...a reasonably coherent period for this topic", and that it is "very much a survey of the English-language literature." He notes, "at the age of 72 I don't feel up to trying to extend myself further." No apology is needed, his bibliography runs to twenty-two pages, and thirty-two pages of notes.

Early on Bowler addresses the divergent viewpoints of those who most famously wrote science fiction. He notes Isaac Asimov and H. G. Wells as writers who "were both fascinated by science and technology, and were convinced that together these enterprises had the potential to change the world for the better." These two wrote both science fiction novels which "imagined future worlds
" and "how human beings might cope with challenges thrown up by new machines." But, also, "as popular science writers they were happy to engage in...an enterprise which would later be called futurology." Thus, they offered a predictive mode for examining potential futures. "Popular science writers often looked to the future with optimism, and for many readers they were the most trusted guides."

On the other hand, "Academic interpretations of early twentieth-century attitudes toward science tend to focus on the pessimism." George Orwell noted the "pessimistic attitude of literary intellectuals" such as Aldous Huxley. Orwell labeled them "temperamentally hostile to the notion of 'progress'...[which] ought not to happen." Orwell would later become a pessimist, particularly fearing, in his "Nineteen Eighty-Four" the misuse of technology by an authoritarian state. Bowler notes that few of the literary novelists had education or direct experience in science. He also notes how this division of viewpoints foreshadowed the emergence of C.P. Snow's "Two Cultures" book of 1959 and the ensuing public conversation about the humanities versus science .

Bowler provides a close examination of the science fiction and popular science writing that envisioned the future with regard to a number of topics. These include how and where we will live, communicating and computing, transportation and aviation, space, war, and energy and environment. A final look examines the role of science and technology impact on changing human nature. As the book progresses, it focuses more directly on the actual changes that took place in each of these subject areas. While the literature remains a continuing touchpoint, the narrative focus lessens on the different points of view about the role of literature.

Bowler takes a philosophical look at the opposing views of science and technology that marked the 1960s. He writes, "there was an ongoing debate between those who welcomed the benefits of technological change (whatever the dangerous by-products) and conservatives who were indifferent to the benefits and feared the destruction of traditional values and ways of life." For himself, noting that "Attitudes may also be reflected in the age of the writer, a point I am acutely conscious of, having been a technophile for much of my life, but now increasingly resistant to the expanding world of the internet and social media, I have moved from being something of a zealot to the position of being a confirmed mug." He expresses the hope that, " seeing both sides of the question has helped me to achieve a balance in the study presented here." To this reader, he has done so brilliantly.

[Nils · Rating 3 out of 5]

A review of how people came to start imagining the impact of technology on the future in the late 19th and early 20th century. (He is basically focused on the English-language literature.) He looks at both popular science writing and early science fiction. Ultimately relies on a somewhat hypostatized "two cultures" distinction between the humanists who he characterizes a "tender-minded conservatives ever harping on the potential dangers" (208) and the technologists themselves whose enthusiasm for progress and innovation often overrode all other concerns. "Literary figures and moralists tended to be suspicious, while the scientists and engineers actually engaged in the process of development tend to be enthusiastic, perhaps uncritically so." (209). JBS Haldane emerges as a major figure: a biotechnological enthusiast who predicted that the human race would eventually reproduce via ectogenesis, but also a socialist and positive eugenicist -- the inspiration to Huxley's Brave New World. After WWII the socialistic commitments of many of the interwar scientists would be killed off by the Cold War. (Indeed, it can be argued that the purpose of the Cold War was at least as much to kill off domestic socialistic tendencies as it was to combat Communist expansionism.)

More original is the view that science fiction emerges over the course of the early 20th century as a distinct genre partly to fill a gap for imaginative exploration of possible technological futures, as opposed to the rather linear extrapolations produced by "empirical" future-prognosticators in pulp magazines. (Interestingly, scenario planning emerges in the postwar period in order to re-integrate the imaginative into empirical accounts of the future -- though Bowler only touches on this in brief passing.) Part of it was the dawning of consumer technologies which made it clear that technology would just revolutionize production or large-scale infrastructure systems, but in fact would remake everyday life including the intimacies of the home and individual identity itself.

But his general view of the uncertainty of technological development is worth quoting at some length because it is a gently devastating account of the whiggish tendencies of most popular histories of technology: "Once a technology has become successful, we tend to assume that it has a clear-cut superiority over its rivals and that the superiority should have been obvious to anyone at the time.... Yet historians of technology studying episodes where rival systems battled for supremacy in the marketplace find that the outcome was never obvious to those actually engaged in the struggle at the time. A well established technology can sometimes block the introduction of another that might well have succeeded had it got there first." (14)

[Aaron Warren · Rating 4 out of 5]

Peter Bowler does an excellent job of looking at early science fiction and how it impacted society. The book can be read straight through, though there will be quite a bit of repeating based on the topical structure versus chronological layout of the book.

A fantastic book for anyone that loves science fiction. Especially those who are looking at the subject more in depth from an academic perspective.

My one major gripe is his bias against religion clearly shows through in his writings, bringing up religious beliefs of his subjects were random and detract from the overall flow of the book.

[Mills College Library]

303.49 B7871 2017