Forewarned: A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction

by Paul Goodwin

Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe?

When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer's prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a 'forecast' not a forecast?

Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries to that old perennial, the weather.

Forewarned is a consumer's guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you'll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You'll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future - and when they are best ignored.

Genres: Nonfiction

271 pages, Kindle Edition

Published July 13, 2017

About the author

Various authors

Reviews

[PolicemanPrawn · Rating 4 out of 5]

This provides a satisfactory summary of the art and science of forecasting. It is well-written and very easy to read. There isn't much new for those familiar with the likes of Nassim Taleb, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, Philip Tetlock, and so on.

[Pete · Rating 3 out of 5]

Forewarned: A Skeptic's Guide to Prediction (2017) by Paul Godwin looks at when predictions are likely to be good, when they are likely to be bad and how to make better predictions and forecasts. 

The book covers similar material to other books like Tetlock's Expert Political Opinion. There are also lots of references to the work of Kahneman and Tversky. Taleb is also referred to frequently. 

There is a discussion of how scenario planning can be useful and how companies have used it successfully.

The book isn't bad. If you've read lot of similar things much of the material will be familiar but there should be something new for most people in the book.  

[Peter Burns · Rating 5 out of 5]

Good read

An Interesting points and much to mull over and contemplate. Some good examples which are easy to understand and comprehend.

[Pinko Palest · Rating 1 out of 5]

some good points here and there, but basically this is just another psychology book, reheating things we already know. There is also a rather ugly elitist streak running through it all