Predicting Pearl Harbor: Billy Mitchell and the Path to War

by Ronald J. Drez

The story of “a military aviation pioneer and patriot who tried—and failed—to warn [about] an attack on Pearl Harbor almost two decades before it occurred” (San Antonio Express-News).   Ever since Commodore Matthew Perry’s 1853 voyage into Japanese waters, the United States and Japan had been on a collision course. Gen. Billy Mitchell recognized the signs and foresaw the eventual showdown between the two nations—eighteen years before the tragedy of Pearl Harbor. When he traveled to Japan disguised as a tourist in 1924, what he found was a nation that had embraced a philosophy of isolationism. Japan had defeated China and Russia on the battlefield decades before, due in part to a veil of secrecy. China and Russia were nearly unable to carry out espionage missions against their enemy.   Yet Mitchell’s predictions were dismissed out of hand, and his attempts to have his theories taken seriously led to scorn and a subsequent court martialing. In this book, primary-source documents, memoirs, and firsthand testimonies deliver an exhaustive background to Mitchell’s prescient reports. Historian Ronald J. Drez presents an engaging account of the life and career of the man who not only foresaw the event that brought the United States into the Second World War, but also shaped the future of military air power—finally giving credence to the man called the “Cassandra General.”

Genres: Nonfiction, World War II, History

289 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 15, 2017

Reviews

[Emery Chase · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good historical look at an important period.

[John Valesano · Rating 5 out of 5]

The author gives the reader an account of General William Mitchell's extensive research and analysis of an impending war with Japan which he predicted the method and time of day of the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1924, 17 years before it actually occurred. General Mitchell was a strong advocate of air warfare or total war to destroy the enemies' forces, production capabilities , and the people, which produced the war machinery. His views and the desire to create an airforce independent of the army and navy were not welcomed by the armed forces of the day. All but a few of his colleagues thought he was crazy and sought to bury the information for fear their divisions of armed forces would become secondary to an airforce. They even court-martialed him in an attempt to silence his report. It failed to suppress his views in the minds of the public and a few of his colleagues.

His views that an airforce would be necessary to ultimately win the war were finally recognized and implemented after the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Another interesting part of the book is about the Hawaiian island of Niihau and its history. General Mitchell suspected that a land invasion by Japan and the construction of an airbase would be ideal on the western plains of Niihau because of its remoteness, and the eastern mountains would hide it from view from the other islands. Since the island was isolated and had a very small population, it could easily be seized, and no one would know. It would then make an excellent staging area to attack Ohau and Pearl Harbor. General Mitchell didn't expect that the actual attack would be staged from aircraft carriers instead of from Niihau.

I would recommend reading this book to anyone interested in World War II. It was a shame General William Mitchell 's report wasn't taken seriously in 1924.

[Genny Coulson · Rating 5 out of 5]

An enthralling read about Army Colonel Billy Mitchell, who shortly after the end of WWI, predicted Japan would attack the U.S. at Pearl Harbor and the next war would depend on air power.
Despite his well-researched, solid findings to back his assertions, Army and military brass dismissed his research out of hand. Eventually Mitchell was court-martialed for his seemingly outrageous prediction, despite solid defense witnesses.
Sadly, Mitchell died of the flu five years before the attack on Pearl Harbor. He was posthumously awarded Congressional Gold Medal years after WWII for his dedication and service.
If you’re a history buff, this is a great book. A real behind-the-scenes of the machinations in the military and that some are true patriots and soldiers.