The Seneca Effect: Why Growth is Slow but Collapse is Rapid

by Ugo Bardi

The essence of this book can be found in a line written by the ancient Roman Stoic Philosopher Lucius Annaeus "Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid". This sentence summarizes the features of the phenomenon that we call "collapse," which is typically sudden and often unexpected, like the proverbial "house of cards." But why are such collapses so common, and what generates them? Several books have been published on the subject, including the well known "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (2005), "The collapse of complex societies" by Joseph Tainter (1998) and "The Tipping Point," by Malcom Gladwell (2000). Why The Seneca Effect? This book is an ambitious attempt to pull these various strands together by describing collapse from a multi-disciplinary viewpoint. The reader will discover how collapse is a collective phenomenon that occurs in what we call today "complex systems," with a special emphasis on system dynamics and the concept of "feedback." From this foundation, Bardi applies the theory to real-world systems, from the mechanics of fracture and the collapse of large structures to financial collapses, famines and population collapses, the fall of entire civilzations, and the most dreadful collapse we can that of the planetary ecosystem generated by overexploitation and climate change. The final objective of the book is to describe a conclusion that the ancient stoic philosophers had already discovered long ago, but that modern system science has rediscovered today. If you want to avoid collapse you need to embrace change, not fight it. Neither a book about doom and gloom nor a cornucopianist's dream, The Seneca Effect goes to the heart of the challenges that we are facing today, helping us to manage our future rather than be managed by it.

Genres: Science, Philosophy, Nonfiction, Environment, Economics, Ecology, Sustainability

430 pages, Kindle Edition

Published August 22, 2017

About the author

Ugo Bardi is a polymath who started his career as a chemist working on oil refining, to gradually move to study peak oil and then the trajectory toward collapse that society is following nowadays. He was a faculty member of the University of Florence, Italy. Now he is a member of the executive committee of the Club of Rome, a think tank located in Switzerland, known for having supported "The Limits to Growth" study of 1972.

Ugo is known for several studies in the field of biophysical economics, and his best known proposal is that of the "Seneca Effect," a way to explain why collapses are frequent in our world; so named after the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeas Seneca

Ugo's books have been imaginative essays dealing with several facets of the human interaction with Earth. How we overexploit resources, how we generate heavy pollution, how we overpopulate the land. And what we can expect for the future in a vision that looks for harmony with the Goddess of Earth, Gaia.

Ugo's most recent books are is "Limits and Beyond" (Exapt Press, 2022), and "Exterminations" (Kimaira Edizioni, 2024). His next book, in preparation, may be titled "The End of Overpopulation"

Reviews

[Mirjam Reino · Rating 5 out of 5]

Tegu on väga kaasahaaravalt kirjutatud ning mõtlema paneva raamatuga. Kõik allikad on välja toodud ning kui kunagi läheb mõnda head tsitaati vaja, siis sellest raamatust saab!
Nii põhjalikku entroopia kasvu seaduse põhjendust pole vist küll kunagi varem lugeda saanud. Lugemiseks peab võtma kindlasti rohkem aega kui mõne ilukirjandusliku teksti lugemiseks!

[Konstantin · Rating 3 out of 5]

"Meie nõrkusele ja olukorrale oleks see mingiks kergenduseks, kui kõige hävi oleks niisama pikaldane nagu teke; nüüd aga on kasv aeglane, kadumise poole tõtatakse."

Nii kirjutas Seneca Lucilius juuniorile, kes oli Nero ajal kõrge riigiametnik ja prokuraator. Sellest ka raamatu nimi, mille keskne idee on see, et asjade, süsteemide, inimsuhete jne ülesehitamiseks kulub tohutu aeg, samal ajal kui nende kokkuvarisemine võtab tihtipeale vaid hetke.

Tavaliselt tekib Seneca efekt seetõttu, et me võitleme muutuste vastu, selle asemel et neid ära kasutada. Mida rohkem me muutuste vastu võitleme, seda rohkem võitlevad muutused meiega ja lõpuks ületavad meie vastupanu. Viimane juhtub tavaliselt väga kiiresti. Selle põhjuseks on termodünaamika teine seadus: entroopia teeb oma töö.

Nii nagu jõed hajutavad veekogude gravitatsioonilist potentsiaalset energiat, hajutavad kõik dünaamilised süsteemid olemasolevat termodünaamilist potentsiaalset energiat, mida nad kasutavad. Nad teevad seda suurima võimaliku kiirusega. See on entroopia kasvu seadus. See ei tähenda, et süsteemil on oma tahe, vaid vastastikuste mõjude süsteem on võrguna lihtsalt nii üles ehitatud,kus erinevad osad kipuvad liikuma kõige lihtsamat teedpidi allamäge.

Ehk siis: kui süsteem leiab võimaluse kokku variseda, siis ta seda ka teeb.

Done.

[The Inquisitive Biologist · Rating 4 out of 5]

The Seneca Effect is an interesting exercise that brings together many disparate forms of collapse in one framework. See my full review at https://inquisitivebiologist.com/2018...

[Mary · Rating 5 out of 5]

Most of the information and argument here is familiar as it would be to anyone who reads Bardi's blogs regularly.

[Ismael Aguilar · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the most terrifying and interesting books I've ever read. Honestly, everyone should read this book, no matter the field.

[Logan Streondj · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent book on everything seneca cliff.

[Todd Davies · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is really good, but it's all about how society could collapse (or is collapsing) so read with caution.

[Samuel · Rating 1 out of 5]

This book was incredibly disappointing. It was very poorly edited and riddled with lazy factual errors and overly broad generalizations. Calling the book an essay would give it too much credit. It was more like the riffing of a well-read friend at a cocktail party. The book was dressed up in the garb of an academic treatise, but do not be fooled by the disguise. A shame really, since the author touched themes I am interested in. I would have been a sympathetic reader.