What do you think?
Rate this book
2081
E Ink slate tablets instead of paper books, grocery stores that let you check out without stopping for a cashier, instant as-needed delivery of any item by intelligent systems, electric cars that go where you tell them without your having to pay attention, super-fast and silent underground public transportation that people actually enjoy riding, whole communities enjoying island climates in the middle of snowy winters, working from home with all of the human interaction of going to a job, carts that politely follow you carrying your loads and ready to guide you when you've lost your way, houses that listen and are always ready to answer any question or organize any part of your life, cheap energy to fuel every device without adding to the carbon, heat or disposal issues of fossil and nuclear fuels. This is your world in 2081.
Princeton Nuclear Physicist Gerard K. O'Neill, most famous for revolutionizing high energy physics labs and particle accelerators with his invention of Storage Ring technologies, and for his view of the potential for thousands of regular people to enjoy satisfying and productive jobs and lives in Space, looked back at the history of looking forward, looked at the realities of where we were in 1981 and envisioned, logically, how regular people would be living in the year 2081. Some of the gadgets and infrastructure that he thought would take a hundred years are with us already, others are in the news today as being right around the corner and some are just waiting for smart people to understand the need for them and make them real parts of our daily lives.
“This book is in four parts. In the first, 'The Art of Prophecy,' we'll explore in a pragmatic way the lessons that can be learned from the colorful history of earlier attempts at predicting the future. In the second, 'The Drivers of Change,' I'll describe five developments that I believe will determine, alone and in combination, the course of the next hundred years. In the third part, 'Life in 2081,' I invite you to join me in a tour through the world in which our great-grandchildren will just be at their prime. In the fourth part, 'Wild Cards,' we'll explore the most exciting developments of a century from now that are just at the limits of possibility - and some that are, perhaps, well beyond those limits.”
“It's an exciting future that I'm predicting, even more different from the late twentieth-century than our own time is from 1881. Some people may be frightened rather than attracted by the prospect of so much change still to come. But we need not be afraid if we approach the future armed with understanding.”
“We have a responsibility beyond mere curiosity to learn as much about the future as we can, because we must choose those actions that will insure not only the survival of humanity, but an improvement in its condition.”
Gerard K. O'Neill
Princeton Nuclear Physicist Gerard K. O'Neill, most famous for revolutionizing high energy physics labs and particle accelerators with his invention of Storage Ring technologies, and for his view of the potential for thousands of regular people to enjoy satisfying and productive jobs and lives in Space, looked back at the history of looking forward, looked at the realities of where we were in 1981 and envisioned, logically, how regular people would be living in the year 2081. Some of the gadgets and infrastructure that he thought would take a hundred years are with us already, others are in the news today as being right around the corner and some are just waiting for smart people to understand the need for them and make them real parts of our daily lives.
“This book is in four parts. In the first, 'The Art of Prophecy,' we'll explore in a pragmatic way the lessons that can be learned from the colorful history of earlier attempts at predicting the future. In the second, 'The Drivers of Change,' I'll describe five developments that I believe will determine, alone and in combination, the course of the next hundred years. In the third part, 'Life in 2081,' I invite you to join me in a tour through the world in which our great-grandchildren will just be at their prime. In the fourth part, 'Wild Cards,' we'll explore the most exciting developments of a century from now that are just at the limits of possibility - and some that are, perhaps, well beyond those limits.”
“It's an exciting future that I'm predicting, even more different from the late twentieth-century than our own time is from 1881. Some people may be frightened rather than attracted by the prospect of so much change still to come. But we need not be afraid if we approach the future armed with understanding.”
“We have a responsibility beyond mere curiosity to learn as much about the future as we can, because we must choose those actions that will insure not only the survival of humanity, but an improvement in its condition.”
Gerard K. O'Neill
286 pages, Kindle Edition
First published January 1, 1981
About the author
Gerard K. O'Neill
9 books27 followersGerard Kitchen O'Neill (February 6, 1927 – April 27, 1992) was an American physicist and space activist. As a faculty member of Princeton University, he invented a device called the particle storage ring for high-energy physics experiments. Later, he invented a magnetic launcher called the mass driver. In the 1970s, he developed a plan to build human settlements in outer space, including a space habitat design known as the O'Neill cylinder. He founded the Space Studies Institute, an organization devoted to funding research into space manufacturing and colonization. His award-winning book The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space inspired a generation of space exploration advocates. (Wikipedia)
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
November 13, 2013
I’ve long been an admirer of Dr O’Neill’s classic on space colonization, The High Frontier. As a result I was excited to order a copy of a lesser known book of his entitled 2081 which, as the name suggests, is a description of a possible future set in that year. Written in 1981, it’s interesting to note not only the future world he describes but also, given that we are now over thirty years on from his start date, to reflect on the changes since it was written and how his future projection fares as a consequence.
The first part of the book contains an overview of prior futurist writing including the works of H.G. Wells and Jules Verne so as to consider how accurate previous predictions have turned out. These inform Dr O’Neill’s futurism as he takes note of the way previous writers were successful or not in projecting what might happen.
We are then launched into a wide ranging exploration of the world of 2081. In The High Frontier at various points Dr O’Neill adds colour to his writing by using the figure of a couple of new immigrants to the space colony to help flesh out his description. He uses this technique to an even greater degree in what is a vivid account of life towards the end of the twenty-first century.
Surprisingly not much space is spent on describing the space colonies for which Dr O’Neill is often remembered now. The narrative concerns a visitor from a space colony travelling to Earth. Dr O’Neill focuses mostly on practical matters, such as detailing how the various transport systems function. Sub-orbital travel to quickly move around the surface of Earth is common. The people in the pleasant, domed American settlement the visitor initially spends a lot of time in generally use self-driving cars to get around town.
One of the most striking concepts of the future from our time involves that of the Singularity, that is a rate of technological change so accelerated that it is impossible for us to really understand what might be on the other side. Computer technology has undoubtedly permeated industrial society by even 2013 let alone 2081 to a much greater degree than even Dr O’Neill seems to have predicted. He briefly sketches the use of laptop computers in 2081 and digital cameras able to store a whole one hundred photos. Yet not even he could grasp how ubiquitous and constantly engaged computer technology and specifically the internet would become over the next thirty years, to say nothing of the seventy years beyond that.
I wondered whilst reading this book whether we had in a practical sense gone through a technological singularity already over the last thirty or forty years. Whilst not perhaps the total break with our current world set out by transhumanists, there can be no doubt that the current power of computers was not fully envisaged at the time 2081 was written.
In Dr O’Neill’s 2081, only an educated elite seem to need or be able to work. Much of the population that is unable to acquire the advanced technological skills needed to work cannot be employed and instead seem content to live in the background on public benefits. Fortunately for the purposes of his narrative, the space colony’s visitor to Earth spends time with a successful middle class family and enjoys their high standard of living. Only shopping as a cultural delight, the bulk of their consumables are purchased via online commerce.
The one very futuristic element in the North American setting is that old science fiction stand by, the humanoid robot. He is a butler, kitchen maid and all round helper with a face that reminds the visitor of a panda.
Dr O’Neill doesn’t seem concerned with the politics, philosophy or religious beliefs of the people of Earth in 2081 and his primary mission is to describe the technology they use to lead their comfortable lives. The space colonies provide much of Earth’s huge energy needs. Yet the expansion of humanity into space has seemingly not worked any major changes into the outlook or beliefs of Earth’s inhabitants – they simply lead easier and more enjoyable lives.
One of the chief concerns we have when we think of the future is global warming. In 1981 this was already considered a problem and we might be generous to Dr O’Neill and consider that given the knowledge at that time, he is remarkably astute to mention it as much as he does. Fortunately one of the themes of technological changes to 2081 is ensuring it is more benign to the environment. The environment, Dr O’Neill notes, is going to be a major movement and locus of change in the future. Let us hope he is right.
After a cross country holiday, our visitor to Earth then goes on a world tour. Great Britain and Europe more broadly fare well in the world of 2081 although the Soviet Union is still limping on, albeit with much of its communism muted by de facto capitalism. Africa fares worst in his future. Whilst Dr O’Neill decides that all out World War 3, a possibility to be sure, doesn’t actually happen by 2081 the international scene is still acutely dangerous. In passing, we are told that some African capital cities have been destroyed through the use of strategic nuclear weapons by terrorists. Alarmingly, the narrator only narrowly misses being destroyed in a nuclear bazooka attack on an airport terminal in Africa that kills 4,000. Dr O’Neill’s concern is that nuclear terrorism may come to be a catastrophic danger.
He travels through Asia and spends time in Japan, the most advanced technological nation in the world where the humanoid robots so precious in America are a common place. For all their advanced society and enormous wealth, the Japanese are desperately paranoid about the risk of nuclear terrorism.
What is striking about this vision is that the people of 2081 are not quite as exposed to the incessant digital information flow that we already are in 2013 yet their world has been transformed by a greater, more encompassing change in the use of technology. In Dr O’Neill’s world it has been used to enhance people’s lives to give them ease and comfort. No longer the fossil fuel based polluting society of today, by 2081 the use of space solar power has altered things for the better. It is a hopeful vision in which not only has life expanded out into the solar system but has somehow struggled to provide the possibility of a benign existence on our precious Earth.
You can also read this review on my blog at: http://projection3.blogspot.co.uk/201...
The first part of the book contains an overview of prior futurist writing including the works of H.G. Wells and Jules Verne so as to consider how accurate previous predictions have turned out. These inform Dr O’Neill’s futurism as he takes note of the way previous writers were successful or not in projecting what might happen.
We are then launched into a wide ranging exploration of the world of 2081. In The High Frontier at various points Dr O’Neill adds colour to his writing by using the figure of a couple of new immigrants to the space colony to help flesh out his description. He uses this technique to an even greater degree in what is a vivid account of life towards the end of the twenty-first century.
Surprisingly not much space is spent on describing the space colonies for which Dr O’Neill is often remembered now. The narrative concerns a visitor from a space colony travelling to Earth. Dr O’Neill focuses mostly on practical matters, such as detailing how the various transport systems function. Sub-orbital travel to quickly move around the surface of Earth is common. The people in the pleasant, domed American settlement the visitor initially spends a lot of time in generally use self-driving cars to get around town.
One of the most striking concepts of the future from our time involves that of the Singularity, that is a rate of technological change so accelerated that it is impossible for us to really understand what might be on the other side. Computer technology has undoubtedly permeated industrial society by even 2013 let alone 2081 to a much greater degree than even Dr O’Neill seems to have predicted. He briefly sketches the use of laptop computers in 2081 and digital cameras able to store a whole one hundred photos. Yet not even he could grasp how ubiquitous and constantly engaged computer technology and specifically the internet would become over the next thirty years, to say nothing of the seventy years beyond that.
I wondered whilst reading this book whether we had in a practical sense gone through a technological singularity already over the last thirty or forty years. Whilst not perhaps the total break with our current world set out by transhumanists, there can be no doubt that the current power of computers was not fully envisaged at the time 2081 was written.
In Dr O’Neill’s 2081, only an educated elite seem to need or be able to work. Much of the population that is unable to acquire the advanced technological skills needed to work cannot be employed and instead seem content to live in the background on public benefits. Fortunately for the purposes of his narrative, the space colony’s visitor to Earth spends time with a successful middle class family and enjoys their high standard of living. Only shopping as a cultural delight, the bulk of their consumables are purchased via online commerce.
The one very futuristic element in the North American setting is that old science fiction stand by, the humanoid robot. He is a butler, kitchen maid and all round helper with a face that reminds the visitor of a panda.
Dr O’Neill doesn’t seem concerned with the politics, philosophy or religious beliefs of the people of Earth in 2081 and his primary mission is to describe the technology they use to lead their comfortable lives. The space colonies provide much of Earth’s huge energy needs. Yet the expansion of humanity into space has seemingly not worked any major changes into the outlook or beliefs of Earth’s inhabitants – they simply lead easier and more enjoyable lives.
One of the chief concerns we have when we think of the future is global warming. In 1981 this was already considered a problem and we might be generous to Dr O’Neill and consider that given the knowledge at that time, he is remarkably astute to mention it as much as he does. Fortunately one of the themes of technological changes to 2081 is ensuring it is more benign to the environment. The environment, Dr O’Neill notes, is going to be a major movement and locus of change in the future. Let us hope he is right.
After a cross country holiday, our visitor to Earth then goes on a world tour. Great Britain and Europe more broadly fare well in the world of 2081 although the Soviet Union is still limping on, albeit with much of its communism muted by de facto capitalism. Africa fares worst in his future. Whilst Dr O’Neill decides that all out World War 3, a possibility to be sure, doesn’t actually happen by 2081 the international scene is still acutely dangerous. In passing, we are told that some African capital cities have been destroyed through the use of strategic nuclear weapons by terrorists. Alarmingly, the narrator only narrowly misses being destroyed in a nuclear bazooka attack on an airport terminal in Africa that kills 4,000. Dr O’Neill’s concern is that nuclear terrorism may come to be a catastrophic danger.
He travels through Asia and spends time in Japan, the most advanced technological nation in the world where the humanoid robots so precious in America are a common place. For all their advanced society and enormous wealth, the Japanese are desperately paranoid about the risk of nuclear terrorism.
What is striking about this vision is that the people of 2081 are not quite as exposed to the incessant digital information flow that we already are in 2013 yet their world has been transformed by a greater, more encompassing change in the use of technology. In Dr O’Neill’s world it has been used to enhance people’s lives to give them ease and comfort. No longer the fossil fuel based polluting society of today, by 2081 the use of space solar power has altered things for the better. It is a hopeful vision in which not only has life expanded out into the solar system but has somehow struggled to provide the possibility of a benign existence on our precious Earth.
You can also read this review on my blog at: http://projection3.blogspot.co.uk/201...
September 30, 2017
A pretty good prognosticator.
I had read this book in a ' Dead tree's edition,(at the time, there was no other kind), in 1981. Currently, many of the developments can be seen, although O'Neill's predictions of space colonies by 2010 seems hopelessly optimistic. I am looking forward to reading it again in 2048 to check on his progress. Perhaps we will have caught up with him.
I had read this book in a ' Dead tree's edition,(at the time, there was no other kind), in 1981. Currently, many of the developments can be seen, although O'Neill's predictions of space colonies by 2010 seems hopelessly optimistic. I am looking forward to reading it again in 2048 to check on his progress. Perhaps we will have caught up with him.
September 18, 2025
Had I been rating this book in 1984, when I first read it, it would've got five stars. But today its conclusions, observations and predictions seem a bit dated.
I read it again because I wanted to check what CoPilot had said were O'Neill's 'five drivers of change'. He discusses the five he picked: Computers, Acumation, Space Colonies, Energy and Communicaitons. He then delves&mdah;yes, delves. This is being written by natural intelligence, even though it might sound like AI—into a discussion of what changes might be expected in each of these things by 1981. Because the descriptions are fairly vague, it's a little difficult to pin him down to where he's wrong. Well, now you know how futurists work...
Forty-four years on, some of the predictions seem a bit dated. Some of the discussions, such as his analysis of the efficiency of solar power, I'm not equipped to question, so I'm not trusting them. But it's certainly clear that we're not closer to space colonies than we were in 1981.
This book would make a good study on 'the way the future was'. Still...we've got fifty-six years to go, so O'Neill might end up being proven right.
I read it again because I wanted to check what CoPilot had said were O'Neill's 'five drivers of change'. He discusses the five he picked: Computers, Acumation, Space Colonies, Energy and Communicaitons. He then delves&mdah;yes, delves. This is being written by natural intelligence, even though it might sound like AI—into a discussion of what changes might be expected in each of these things by 1981. Because the descriptions are fairly vague, it's a little difficult to pin him down to where he's wrong. Well, now you know how futurists work...
Forty-four years on, some of the predictions seem a bit dated. Some of the discussions, such as his analysis of the efficiency of solar power, I'm not equipped to question, so I'm not trusting them. But it's certainly clear that we're not closer to space colonies than we were in 1981.
This book would make a good study on 'the way the future was'. Still...we've got fifty-six years to go, so O'Neill might end up being proven right.
August 17, 2024
Very well-written book, especially for it's genre: too many futurist books are written by scientists who get bogged down in technical details to worry about how the book will "flow" for the reader. O'Neill avoids this by breaking up the chapters into halves; the first half of each is devoted to a first-hand narrative given by a fictional visitor from an distant space colony to 2081's Earth. This helps to introduce the reader to the innovations predicted by presenting them through the eyes of someone experiencing the future Earth for the first time. The second half of each chapter O'Neill uses to explain how the changes shown in the first half are a logical extension of our present-day world. There is also an excellent introductory chapter which reviews the history of predictions of the future, and how well others have done. The tone of the book is consistently optimistic without getting dreamy-eyed, which makes it all the more remarkable for having being published during a period where futurism was largely dominated by Malthusian doomsayers. Indeed, "2081" could be seen as a testimony of faith in the future of mankind, and is a fine legacy for the Nobel Prize-winning physicist. Top recommendation.
June 9, 2007
This is an aged update of O'Neil's "The High Frontier," which is out of print. It makes the case for development of extraterrestrial resouces, as opposed to going into space to plant a flag on the moon.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews