The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking

by Russell A. Carleton, Jeff Passan (Foreword)

With its three-hour-long contests, 162-game seasons, and countless measurable variables, baseball is a sport which lends itself to self-reflection and obsessive analysis. It's a thinking game. It's also a shifting game. Nowhere is this more evident than in the statistical revolution which has swept through the pastime in recent years, bringing metrics like WAR, OPS, and BABIP into front offices and living rooms alike. So what's on the horizon for a game that is constantly evolving? Positioned at the crossroads of sabermetrics and cognitive science, The Shift: Unseen Science, Gory Math, and Baseball Questions You Didn't Know to Ask alters the trajectory of both traditional and analytics-based baseball thinking. With a background in clinical psychology as well as experience in major league front offices, Baseball Prospectus' Russell Carleton illuminates advanced statistics and challenges cultural assumptions, demonstrating along the way that data and logic need not be at odds with the human element of baseball—in fact, they're inextricably intertwined. Covering topics ranging from infield shifts to paradigm shifts, Carleton writes with verve, honesty, and an engaging style, inviting all those who love the game to examine it deeply and maybe a little differently. Data becomes digestible; intangibles are rendered not only accessible, but quantifiable. Casual fans and statheads alike will not want to miss this compelling meditation on what makes baseball tick.

Genres: Baseball, Sports, Nonfiction, Psychology, Memoir, American

316 pages, Paperback

First published March 8, 2018

Reviews

[Joy D · Rating 4 out of 5]

Non-fiction about sabermetrics, which the author defines as “a term that loosely refers to the study of baseball through the scientific method.” Carleton provides an analysis of the recent shifts in baseball strategy and tactics due to the application of in-depth analytics in recent times. In his words, “My goal in writing this book isn’t to tell you how to think about the game. It’s to think alongside you about baseball, maybe in a different way than you’re used to thinking about it. Maybe somewhere in my thoughts is a kernel of knowledge that you can use when you settle down to watch the game tonight.”

The author poses stimulating questions and walks the reader through the mathematical analysis to arrive at a conclusion grounded in facts. I have paraphrased some of these questions to give the reader an idea of content:
- What is the best way to win a baseball game?
- Why are we pretending that walks never happened?
- Should the batter try to bunt a runner to second with no outs?
- Should a batter try to beat the defensive shift? If so, how often?
- How important are stolen bases?
- How often should the coach send the runner from third?
- What is the definition of Wins Above Replacement? How important is it?
- In 2012, who should have won the MVP award – Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout?
- Should a manager bring the closer into a tie game in the ninth inning?
- What is the best way to use a pitching staff?
- How much difference does the manager make?
- How important is momentum?
- Are pitch counts a good idea?
- How effective is the Draft system?

The author assumes the reader is reasonably knowledgeable about the game and its history. I’m not sure how much the casual fan would enjoy it, unless particularly drawn to baseball statistics. The math itself does not take up a lot of space and, I thought, was well-explained by the author. Carleton has a knack for taking a complicated topic and breaking it down into easily digested pieces. He also uses meaningful analogies to enhance the reader’s understanding. The narrative is sprinkled with humor and memories from his life, which was a nice break from the sections involving mental gymnastics.

Carleton is focused on numbers, but does not ignore human factors, accounts for them as much as possible in the calculations and notes where they are not able to be quantified. The author earned a Ph.D. in clinical psychology, and he includes many observations about human nature, particularly noting that humans often do not behave logically or rationally due to a variety of biases.
I enjoyed this book immensely and recommend it to avid baseball fans, especially those that follow the game closely and want to understand more about the latest metrics. I also think it would serve as a great tool for mathematics teachers that desire to demonstrate real world applications of probability and statistics to their students.

Memorable quotes – there were so many! These are just a few that resonated with me:
“Baseball journalism might be fun to read, but it should never be mistaken for sound research methodology.”
“Baseball fans are used to tolerating irrational behavior.”
“People can be wrong, and “tradition” sometimes just means that they’ve been wrong for a very long time.”
“When you have to make a choice between two strategies before you know the outcome, pick the one with the highest (or the least negative) expected value.”
“There’s a pleasant myth that people tend to believe about themselves that they “look at all the facts and decide from there.” We are fond of thinking of ourselves as logical. This is, without question, not true.”

[Brian · Rating 5 out of 5]

Should be in the pantheon of sophisticated baseball books

[Harold Kasselman · Rating 5 out of 5]

First let me say that I hated the first 11% of the book and almost quit. DON'T!
DON'T! This is an extremely enjoyable book by a very likeable author whose love for the game is palpable in his stories and writing. He is also a humorist and a psychologist to boot. His purpose is to shed some light on the SHIFT or evolution in baseball thinking which has consumed the sport in the last decade. The Shift does not refer only to the explosion of the defensive shifts in the game, but rather the movement away from the human element to a more data driven game. As a psychologist, the author tries to reconcile them for the game and for the reader's perspective of how and why the game is played today as opposed to twenty years ago.(Think "The Trouble with the Curve" meets "Moneyball".
It may shake some of us old guys' beliefs in certain ideas(steals, bunts, when to run on a sac fly),but it is very thoughtfully written. I am amazed at how granular the sabermetricians have become. They analyze every pitch, every outcome, every out, every hit, and come up with statistical proof to show why bunting a man over to second does not improve run producing percentages. Everything is examined for "what is the expected value of a play or non act". The same is true of a steal. At what point is stealing second base worthwhile in increasing the chances of a run? For example, based on 2017 statistics, unless the runner has better than a 73.94 % of making it safely, it isn't worth trying. When should a runner tag on a sac fly from third base with one out? It turns out, he should go practically every time. One thing I thought was cool was the discussion of whether the KC third base coach should have sent Alex Gordon in the final game of the 2014 WS when there were two outs and Sal perez was up. He makes a persuasive argument based on Perez' OBP during the season and the playoffs that there was a better chance of an errant throw or missed tag than the chance that Perez would drive him home. There is a lot here to digest, including leverage situations for relievers rather than just the bottom of the 9th(a concept used by Francona with Andrew Miller), and the expected extra runs attributable to catchers for good pitch framing based on stats of pitches. Carleton also makes a statistically driven case that defensive shifts may actually do more harm than good. Two other things I found fascinating. First, he produces evidence to show that there is little if no correlation between giving a pitcher three days rest rather than four with a result of fewer injuries. Second, he did a computer simulated season of games to judge whether traditional notions of batting orders made a real difference. Surprise! Only 1.5 runs scored was the difference in the year. The use of bull-penning and high leverage usage of relievers, and the value added by player versatility are discussed, and he debunks some myths including the myth of momentum as an influence on games. So, this is a very helpful, funny and well explained(except for Cox regression) book about the evolution in thinking and the myths still viable in the game.

[Dave · Rating 2 out of 5]

Yikes, this is the definition of a hot mess! Like the author I too grew up in a western suburb of Cleveland rooting for the 90s Indians and even attended a small liberal arts school in the middle nowhere Ohio, so I was rooting for this one. Unfortunately, it really just seemed to lack a clear hypothesis. It didn’t fulfill on the promise of a psychological deep dive into the game, and often wandered aimlessly from topic to topic - at least not at the level you’d expect from a PhD. An example was the jump from Chapter 8 which barreled through the very interesting topic of how teams handle minor leaguers in the 21 hours per day that they’re not playing baseball, but suddenly shifted to the evaluation of general managers in chapter 9 (reaching the disappointing “conclusion” that being a GM is hard and we still have no idea how to evaluate them). It also seemed like the author couldn’t decide whether he was writing a serious examination of novel ideas or a piece of entertainment, as he bounced between silly non-baseball anecdotes from his personal life and more rigorous analyses. Ultimately there are some interesting ideas here but most of them felt under-developed and overall the book seemed to lack direction.

[Josh · Rating 4 out of 5]

Russel Carleton’s essays in the Baseball Prospectus annuals have often been my favorites because he's one of the few writers who doesn’t wield his analytical toolbox like the proverbial hammer seeking whatever looks roughly like a nail. He’s a psychologist by training so addressing the human element first is his primary approach, which to my thinking is the better one. He spends a fair amount of time explaining some of the roots of baseball analytics, which for baseball nerds won’t be anything new, but he takes his own unique approach because--if you can believe this--pure math arguments haven’t swayed everyone. But mostly his goal here is to expose biases and encourage more holistic thinking in both old- and new-school crowds.

One bit I liked: "Casinos are monuments to mathematical and psychological illiteracy....Expected value theory says that casinos should be empty. Expected value theory does not work on actual human beings.” Much of the book addresses this gap within various baseball things where the right tactic based on expected value just *feels* wrong because it’s counterintuitive or too non-traditional. Carleton is very good at breaking down problems and doesn’t mind admitting when there is no great answer.

Example: A notoriously difficult baseball thing to analyze is the performance of managers. Unlike all the other things that happen in baseball that we can analyze, we don’t see 95% of a manager’s job, which is internal communication. The 5% we do see, in the form of on-field tactics, (1) is a team decision and the manager has a say but mostly just serves as the public face, and (2) as it turns out, don't actually make a huge difference.

Sabermetricians shrug, analyze the data anyway, and conclude the managers are doing everything wrong. (Ironically the most tedious managerial analysis happens in the playoffs when there’s less baseball volume and every move can be scrutinized. Ironic because the analysis is almost always critical, and these teams are in the playoffs and by definition good. I mean, the manager must have been doing something right.) Most baseball fans don’t bother with the analysis and skip right to the part where they get to think their manager is an idiot. Carleton understands the psychology of the role, where doing something radical is harder in practice than theory because you need organizational buy-in, and even when you have it, if it goes wrong you have to be the one explaining to the media why you thought you were smarter than every other manager ever. But Russell is also comfortable with the data side of things, and further proves that most things the manager can control on the field wouldn’t be affected much even by wildly different approaches.

But accepting that means being comfortable not having an answer. It means accepting ambiguity and the role of chance. Here is where the book is at its best, when Carleton uses all his tools and is still willing to just admit there is no good answer. That human endeavors are fuzzy and messy and data can help you overcome biases, but only if you’re going about it the right way in the first place.

[Jon Seals · Rating 4 out of 5]

4 stars

This is a good book. I probably should have read it five years ago when these concepts were fresh. Recent rule changes haven't made this book obsolete, but some of this is "old hat" to many current fans.

That being said, I really enjoyed it. It was well researched and covered many areas of baseball which were new to me.

I would like to read Carleton's second book, "The New Ballgame: The Not-So-Hidden Forces Shaping Modern Baseball," but it isn't available on Audible. (I'm almost exclusively an audiobook guy these days.)

[Matt Dillard · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was a really fun book about baseball centering on many topics brought up in Moneyball: advanced statistics, scouting, inefficiencies, and how to think about baseball. The author is my age, graduating in the same year as me, so I felt we had an instant rapport. I'm sure he'd agree.

I especially loved the author's approach to decision-making. He is nuanced and fair, able to see multiple perspectives without being wishy-washy. He has a good feel for when numbers matter and when they lie, or as he puts it, when they give the right answers to the wrong questions.

[Zach Koenig · Rating 5 out of 5]

As a reader who is fascinated by the topic of baseball saber metrics and thinking about the sport from different angles, I'm always on the lookout for books of that ilk. Russell Carleton provides a great one with "The Shift".

Whereas some baseball statistics books can be heavy on the math (and thus a bit dense), Carleton keeps it simple here, relying as much on his storytelling ability as his calculator. He delves into a number of issues present in the game today, and while he does use charts/tables/calculations to back up his findings, he presents them in a very conversational style that would be fit for even casual fans.

Also impressive is how Carleton does some "next level" thinking that I had never considered before. For example: In tackling the book's title topic (shifting fielders to prevent hits), he concedes that the concept seems sound on paper...if Batter X hits most of his batted balls to spot Y, then shifting the opposing fielders towards Y makes sense. However, that change creates a ripple effect throughout the entire gameplay system, so to speak. Hitters are (slowly) becoming less pull-conscious. Line drive rates (which produce more hits to begin with) are trending up as a result of severe infield shifting to nearly every batter. Pitchers throw less strikes when the defense is shifted behind them (likely because they must pitch to a much narrower spot). So, while on the surface the shift seems like a slam-dunk win, I love how Carleton picks it apart and shows that nothing is sure-fire in a game where people are in direct competition with each other.

That leads to a final strong suit of this book, in which Carleton doesn't just pay lip service to the "people matter too!" retort to stat-heads. He spends entire chapters dealing with such topics as where the team manager brings the most value (he argues it is in dealing with "The Grind" more than any in-game decision) and how it behooves teams from the minors all the way up to provide proper nutrition and counseling to young men still in the throes of learning to live on their own (in a tough environment to boot). In a sporting environment where finding a sliver of an edge is key, Carleton looks at areas like this that wouldn't obviously scream "improvement needed".

Overall, "The Shift" is a fascinating read for hard-core or casual fans alike. While tacking some heady concepts, it is never difficult or boring in the slightest. I went from beginning to end in a matter of a couple days with no trouble at all. Should almost be required reading for those who want to deep-dive into the inner workings of baseball both on and off the field.

[Mike Cisneros · Rating 3 out of 5]

Not as advertised

It’s fine but hardly groundbreaking and doesn’t really touch on its purported mission of describing any new kind of psychological approach to baseball analytics.

[Harold Kasselman · Rating 5 out of 5]

First let me say that I hated the first 11% of my kindle book. I almost gave up. DON'T! This is an extremely enjoyable book by a very likeable author whose love for the game is palpable in his stories and writing. He is also a humorist and a psychologist to boot. His purpose is to shed some light on the SHIFT or evolution in baseball thinking which has consumed the sport in the last decade. The Shift does not refer only to the explosion of the defensive shifts in the game, but rather the movement away from the human element to a more data driven game. As a psychologist, the author tries to reconcile them for the game and for the reader's perspective of how and why the game is played today as opposed to twenty years ago. (Think "The Trouble with the Curve" meets "Moneyball".
The concepts in the book are not all novel or ahead of the curve, but they are important for the fan to understand. Carleton does a very nice job explaining WAR and emergent value, expected value, and how General managers go about trying to add value to a team so that every possible advantage is gained. He offers proof in the form of statistics for his theories. t's not an easy read and it flies in the face of us old guys' beliefs in certain ideas (steals, bunts, when to run on a sac fly), but it is very thoughtfully written. I am amazed at how granular the saber metricians have become. They analyze every pitch, every outcome, every out, every hit, and come up with statistical proof to show why bunting a man over to second does not improve run producing percentages. Everything is examined for "what is the expected value of a play or non-act". The same is true of a steal. At what point is stealing second base worthwhile in increasing the chances of a run? For example, based on 2017 statistics, unless the runner has better than a 73.94 % of making it safely, it isn't worth trying. When should a runner tag on a sac fly from third base with one out? It turns out, he should go practically every time. One thing I thought was cool was the discussion of whether the KC third base coach should have sent Alex Gordon in the final game of the 2014 WS when there were two outs and Sal Perez was up. He makes a persuasive argument based on Perez' OBP during the season and the playoffs that there was a better chance of an errant throw or missed tag than the chance that Perez would drive him home. There is a lot here to digest, including leverage situations for relievers rather than just the bottom of the 9th (a concept used by Francona with Andrew Miller), and the expected extra runs attributable to catchers for good pitch framing based on stats of pitches. Carleton also makes a statistically driven case that defensive shifts may actually do more harm than good. Two other things I found fascinating. First, he produces evidence to show that there is little if no correlation between giving a pitcher three days' rest rather than four with a result of fewer injuries. Second, he did a computer simulated season of games to judge whether traditional notions of batting orders made a real difference. Surprise! Only 1.5 runs scored was the difference in the year. The use of bull-penning and high leverage usage of relievers, and the value added by player versatility are discussed, and he debunks some myths including the myth of momentum as an influence on games. So, this is a very helpful, funny and well explained (except for Cox regression) book about the evolution in thinking and the myths still viable in the game. Great job

[Girard Bowe · Rating 2 out of 5]

I really wanted to like this book, but . . .

1) In randomly checking formulas & results, I found an error on page 145. Either the result is wrong, or the number of shifts is wrong. A minor quibble, but that I discovered it at all after a handful of checks is significant. To see how the formulas worked, I checked about 20 (tops) – an extrapolated error rate of 5%. I don’t believe the actual rate is anywhere near that high, but for a book so reliant on numbers & statistics, somebody should have double-checked these.

2) Carleton cites the high success rate of coaches sending runners home safely from 3rd base, and suggests they don’t do it often enough, and the return of runs vs the expense of outs is worth it. Most of what I read in baseball analytics says outs should be avoided. In this instance, it seems the coaches are making the right judgment.

3) A chart on page 168 detailing actual and expected strikes and balls during shift situations leaves out plate appearances which result in a strikeout or walk, because of the unavailability of this data. Maybe I’m missing something (probable!), but it seems that would it be hard to draw any conclusions with this limitation.

4) Per Holden Caulfield, digressions are often more interesting than the purported topic, but in this case, the many personal stories detract. A few asides to frame an argument are fine, but I found Carleton’s personal stories too long, too many, and not especially illuminating. I think perhaps he was trying too hard to pair his psychological insights with his baseball statistics. (He has a PhD in clinical psychology, and extensive statistical training.)

5) That’s not to say there is nothing useful here. The more one reads about the newer baseball statistics, the better one can understand them. Some explanations work better than others, and one explanation may provide an “Aha” moment where another does not. However, as a reference, this book is extremely limited, due to the fact there is no index, and the chapter titles give little or no clue to their content. I did enjoy Carleton's insights about bunts and shifts.

These are a few examples. I found some of the analyses way too complicated to be useful, and some of the writing was off-putting (for example, the repeated argument of "icky feeling" to explain some people's reluctance to accept statistical conclusions).

I can recommend Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball by Keith Law and A Fan's Guide to Baseball Analytics: Why WAR, WHIP, wOBA, and Other Advanced Sabermetrics Are Essential to Understanding Modern Baseball by Anthony Castrovince as books I liked better for their explanations of baseball sabermetrics.

[Lance · Rating 4 out of 5]

When people ask me why baseball is my favorite sport, I tell them that I love it because it is a thinking game. The author of this book, Russell Carleton, agrees with my assessment, but he goes even further, stating that “maybe it’s even an obsessing game. It is most certainly a shifting game.” The last portion of that statement is what he concentrates on proving in this book by illustrating how the increased use of advanced statistics, also known as sabermetrics, has shifted the focus of many aspects of the game.

There are many topics about the game covered in the book. Starting with asking the right question, Carleton explores just about every aspect of the game – hitting, pitching, defense (including the shift - only makes sense with this title), managing on the field, managing off the field and scouting. No matter what part of the game the reader enjoys, he or she will find information that will be of interest.

http://sportsbookguy.blogspot.com/201...

Of course, since sabermetrics are the main theme of the book, there are numbers galore making Carleton’s points. Not only does he use the usual statistics that fans will see online or on television during the games, but he uses many charts that compares situations year by year to show trends. This can be anything from the percentages of batted balls put in play to the run probability for a team in any situation it may find during its time at bat in the inning. At times, it can be overwhelming, even for the avid baseball fan. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it means the book is chock full of information that may be of use to some reader.

It should be noted that the book is not all numbers – there are a lot of stories about not only the human element of the game, but other stories such as when the author met his wife that will lead into the baseball application of the particular topic. These passages help to make the book more palatable to read than had it been strictly about numbers and charts.

Who should read this book? I will use my favorite quote from the book to answer this question as readers who fit this description should add this book to their libraries. That would be readers who are “becoming wrapped up in the efforts of 25 players who just happen to wear funny pajamas emblazoned with the name of the major city that (they) were born closest to.”

[Greg Stoll · Rating 4 out of 5]

(should be 4.5 stars)

What an interesting book! The author, who got a PhD in psychology before living the dream of writing about baseball analytics (yeah, it sounds pretty great) looks at a series of topics. Each chapter begins with a seemingly random section about something non-baseball related, then transitions to a baseball topic (that turns out to be related).

Probably my favorite chapter was when he talked about parenting; the mechanics of parenting aren't hard (we trust 14-year-olds to babysit, after all), it's the fact that you rarely get to leave "parent mode" and don't have autonomy over your own schedule. (this is so true!) Then he talks about "the grind" of a 162-game season, and how managers have to try to keep their team fresh, deal with player conflicts that may or may not be baseball-related, and so on. These are things that fans rarely have to think about, since it's much easier to focus on tactical decisions. ("why did he bunt there?", "why did he leave the starting pitcher in?", etc.) It turns out the tactical decisions that a manager makes do have an impact on how many games a team wins, but not as many as you think. Conversely, there's a noticeable effect over the course of a season where hitters get a little worse at deciding what pitches to swing at - it's small (on the order of 0.25% when you get 180 days away from Opening Day), but it has a bigger impact than you'd think because it affects every single pitch. And some managers seem to be better at keeping their hitters from getting worse over the course of a season, and this effect is almost as big as the tactical decisions!

Another interesting chapter was the effects of the shift and why players don't just bunt against it, which dives into game theory and leverage and whatnot.

Anyway, the book is quite good and unlike a few other baseball books I've read recently, it talks about stuff I hadn't thought about/read before. The writing is also good; it was a joy to read!

[Roger Smitter · Rating 5 out of 5]

“The most dangerous thing in the world is the correct answer to the wrong question.” Author Russell A. Carleton gives us this advice early in his book about baseball statistics. He wants to enrich and expand the field of metrics of everything, especially in Major League Baseball.

While he is a baseball fan, with a passion for his hometown Cleveland Indians, he looks far back in baseball history and at changes in the game to show us how math can explain what happens ot the the field. He summarizes the game by saying “Baseball is a game of colliding objects.” (Page 64).

There’s some humor, especially his first day in graduate school when he began teaching statistics to psychology students. He quickly noted that most of the novice psych majors wanted to be therapists, with the assumption they would that they would never use math. He tells the students the work load and then asked, “Let’s talk about how that made you feel.”

He takes us through 11 chapters that have titles that spark curiosity: How to Score Half a
Run, Nitrogen and the Fogotten Starter, and Except That It’s Not Actually True. Each gives us a way to measure a team’s success on the field.

The book is an excellent example of how to ask questions Some of the questions carry beyond the diamond. Some are just plain engaging. All of this is delivered in a way that challenges us to ask the right questions, to have curiosity, and to use mathematics.

[Reid Mccormick · Rating 5 out of 5]

If I could do college all over again, I would probably study economics and then try to get a job on a Major League Baseball team.

I was fairly certain when I left high school that I did not have the talent to make it professional baseball. I was a decent catcher and a good hitter in a small school in a small league. So my first attempt to stay in baseball was through the medical field. Long story short, I did not do so well in my human anatomy classes and I changed majors. I didn’t see another path to baseball so went another direction.

I have been a fan of sabermetrics since I first read Moneyball. The blend of baseball and statistics is so intriguing. I have read numerous books on baseball and numbers, however, I find fantasy baseball extremely dull.

This book could possibly be the best book I have read on advanced statistics in baseball. Carleton breaks it down very simply; why some numbers work, how they work, and how they don’t work. He doesn’t lose the human element of baseball while explaining Runs Expected and Wins Above Replacement.

This is a great read.

[Steve · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is brand new, and it's basically a book length examination of things which aren't always so obvious about baseball. Carleton is a former psychologist who also loves statistics (and the game, of course), so his perspective combines rational ideas with the need to understand the players and all involved are actual human beings. Is he predicting an evolution in baseball thinking? I don't know - apparently teams are already working on the human elements of their minor league players, helping to give them chances to improve on the field by improving nutrition and psychological needs. Most fun idea Carleton offers is based on stats - he thinks there should almost never be a runner stopped at 3rd on a ball hit to the outfield, since something like 94% of all runners score in that situation. He may not have actually seen Yadier Molina run the bases, but still, it's something to think about.

[Martha · Rating 3 out of 5]

I think this book should actually be called "Musings of a Baseball Thinker" because the actual title is confusing. Does "the shift" refer to the shift in baseball? But that doesn't make sense because that shift doesn't feature prominently in this book. Or does it refer to the next evolution in baseball thinking? Because that doesn't feature prominently in the book at all. Don't get me wrong - I appreciated the book, but I was confused as to how it was organized and what exactly I was supposed to get from it. I learned a few key things, and I'm sure if I were more stats minded I would have gained even more. What really bothered me though was how the last chapter or two really seemed to be a rambling stream of consciousness and analogies that were way too long - I think it's great that he's been married for so long and lived in X amount of cities and they overcame obstacles during their wedding, but...I'm reading this book for baseball, not for a memoir.

[Jason · Rating 4 out of 5]

Whether it’s Moneyball 3.0 or something new altogether, Carleton’s ideas and research is some of the most enjoyable baseball analysis being written. His anecdote-laden and easy-talking approach makes the mathiest material go down like necessary medicine hidden below a spoonful of sugar. Most fun, though, is everything he writes seems to find its way back to three main principles: 1. Inside even the most overanalyzed topics (bunts, etc.), there will always be new dusty corners in which to find inefficiencies and offer illumination; 2. Humans play this game, and will always be influencing it in oblique and spongy ways; 3. We obsess because we love baseball and want to understand it just a little bit better, not because it can ever be solved.

[Joe · Rating 5 out of 5]

Superbly readable work from Carleton, which is essentially higher order baseball thinking for dummies. Not that you're a dummy if you don't follow the details of BABIP and WAR and the kinds of things Carleton dives into... but he'll give you a crash course on what the fuss is about. Carleton's background as a psychologist makes him both a) able to bring this stuff down to a readable level and b) a careful, thoughtful user of baseball's tons of numbers. This book is ideal for an older fan trying to figure out what all the statistical fuss is about, or a newer fan who wants to learn a little more about the insides of the game. Even for those of us familiar enough with WAR to not need an elaborate explanation, Carleton still makes it a fun ride. Very readable, very enjoyable.

[G · Rating 4 out of 5]

A unique entry into the sabermetrics world

Author Russ Carleton is a PhD in psychology. He uniquely approaches the data driven world of sabermetrics by also considering many of the events in baseball that happen off the field and are difficult to measure. He weaves his love of and journey into baseball writing with a story of how baseball thinking is changing. To the casual fan, the youth movement in managers and the expansion of coaching staffs to include more Spanish speakers are important to helping get the most out of players. This along with other more subtle subjects are introduced to readers with a deep interest in modern baseball management.

[Adam Stein · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of many analytical books on baseball to come out in the past decade. But this one differs in that Carleton applies his psychology background to many of the things you won't find in analytics. The discussion around why David Ortiz doesn't bunt to the empty hole is terrific.

I've read much of the analytics elsewhere and still a lot of new content in this book. Also Carleton is a very entertaining story teller, mixing personal anecdotes about life and baseball about how the sport of baseball operates.

[Saros · Rating 4 out of 5]

Got me to start thinking about baseball in ways that I hadn't before. Eighth-grade math-nerd me absolutely devoured this book. Now, giving it another look, I find myself disagreeing with some of what Carleton says, but he got me to start thinking critically about these things that I wouldn't have even considered before.

One thing I will always agree with him on is the pitch clock. Three years in and it's basically killed baseball. I'm glad he got to me first because otherwise I feel like I would have fallen in with the crowd and mindlessly accepted it.

[Adam · Rating 5 out of 5]

Loved this book, Carleton does a really good job of articulating the necessity of embracing both sabermetrics and the human side of baseball. He combines interesting psychological studies with the latest in analytics in baseball, all while intertwining personal stories of his life relating to the specific chapter. Pinpoints the small advantages teams must make in order to maximize their talent, and does so in an accessible way!

[Clay Yearsley · Rating 5 out of 5]

GREAT Writing

Sure, this is another baseball data book. There are lots of them. As a nerdy baseball fan and professional data guy, I like most of them. This one, however, is exceptional. Mr. Carleton is an amazing writer. He reveals himself as much as any secrets he’s discovered about the game. He’s thoughtful and endearing. I’ll search out anything he writes from now on. I can’t recommend this book highly enough.

[Donna · Rating 5 out of 5]

What could be better than a book that combines two loves of my life: baseball and mathematics? Add to it that it's author is a Cleveland Indian fan, you have a story that defines the attraction that the sport holds to frustrated and fun-loving professionals all over the continent.

A great mix of data-crunching and psychology that explores all aspects of the sport of baseball, but with a light-hearted spin.

[David Montgomery · Rating 4 out of 5]

A well-written introduction to the modern, statistical-based method of thinking about baseball — as well as to the insights that psychology offers to understanding the National Pastime. Carleton is an engaging writer who offers plenty of examples, keeps blocks of numbers to a minimum, and explains everything. A good read for a casual baseball fan who wants to learn deeper, or a passionate fan who wants a quick refresher on what sabermetric research shows.

[Josh Higham · Rating 5 out of 5]

I expected something like Brian Kenny's Ahead of the Curve (I haven't read Carleton before--I'm a FanGraphs guy). But this book is a delightful blend of humanity and baseball grand strategy. I have been a little turned off by the trend toward profit over winning in baseball, which has colored how I've read sabermetrics, but this book was fun for me throughout. Lots of personal and family stories, which is really the right way to think and talk about baseball, if you ask me.

[Luke V · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great insight into baseball, written with curiosity and wonder and acknowledgement there are many questions that remain. A thoughtful look at both sabremetrics and the emotional side of the game. Chapters "why does it feel so icky?" (When taking a less than 50/50 shot is still the right call... many more runners should be sent from third) and "why doesn't David Ortiz just bunt" (a terrific lesson in game theory) are awesome.

[Chaim Wachtel · Rating 5 out of 5]

Must read!!!

Wow, I could not put this down. I have read Mr. Carleton on the pages of BP and Twitter, and I must say this was not what I was expecting.... the way he weaves in his own personal story with lessons on baseball, made me feel like I was reading a book about myself... having grown up reading Bill James, and having read more than 200 baseball books, this is one of two I wished I had written.

[Davis Orr · Rating 5 out of 5]

Russell Carleton nailed this. In every chapter an intriguing thought process in baseball was explored from every possible angle. His analysis of “expected value” was exceptional (also simple) and he carried it throughout the book making sure he attacked all of his own conclusions with a refreshing taste of self-awareness. It not only refreshed my view of the game I love but also refreshed the way I want to view my own conclusions in all of life.