Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can't Be Blamed On Global Warming

by Roy W. Spencer

After major hurricanes Harvey and Irma made landfall in the United States in 2017, and as Hurricane Florence approaches the Carolinas in 2018, there have been renewed calls to do something about global warming. The popular perception that landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. are becoming more frequent or more severe, however, is shown to be incorrect. The 30 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history have indeed become more expensive in recent decades, but it is demonstrated that as damages have increased, hurricane intensity has not. The cause of increasing damages is increasing population and infrastructure in hurricane-prone areas. History has demonstrated that major hurricanes, sometimes arriving in pairs, have been part of Atlantic and Gulf coastal life for centuries. Even lake bottom sediments in Texas and Florida reveal more catastrophic hurricane landfalls 1,000 to 2,000 years ago than have happened more recently. Over the last 150 years, the number of major hurricanes hitting Texas has been the same when Gulf of Mexico water temperatures were below normal as when they were above normal. Harvey's record-setting rainfall totals were due to its slow movement, which cannot be traced to global warming (August 2017 was quite cool over most of the U.S.), combined with substantial land subsidence preventing rivers from draining more rapidly to the ocean. Major hurricane strikes in Florida since 1900 have, if anything, become somewhat less frequent and less severe. What has changed in Florida, again, is coastal development. The Miami - Fort Lauderdale metroplex now has a population of over 6 million, whereas a little over 100 years ago it was nearly zero. As a result, our vulnerability to major hurricane strikes has increased dramatically. Even with no change in hurricane activity, hurricane damages will continue to increase along with wealth and infrastructure in coastal areas. It is only a matter of time before our first trillion-dollar hurricane catastrophe occurs, and it will happen with our without carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use.

Genres: Science

65 pages, Kindle Edition

Published September 17, 2017

About the author

Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

Dr. Spencer’s research has been entirely supported by U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, and DOE. He has never been asked by any oil company to perform any kind of service. Not even Exxon-Mobil.

Reviews

[Michael A. Simmons, Sr. · Rating 5 out of 5]

Concise Refutation

This book is a concise refutation of the current hysteria revolving around hurricane frequency/intensity and global warming. The author through a review of historic data shows that hurricanes are neither more frequent or more intense. He does remind the reader that the monetary losses are increasing due to a greater population density and infrastructure cost.

[Carlos · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must-read for Militant Climate Activists

Great book and informative. Uses very common sense and fact-based approach to illustrate the nature, history, and characteristics of hurricanes and their associated effects. Don’t listen to Bill Nye the Fake Scientist about climate change.

[Jack · Rating 4 out of 5]

An interesting take on hurricanes.

Dr Spencer has written several books on the causes and effects of climate change. This one provides some interesting viewpoints. So do the others.

[Philip Brink · Rating 5 out of 5]

Short, but packed with good input

Gave 5 stars as good input, yet to the point. Recent hurricanes are not unusual, despite what news might report.

[Michael K. Laney · Rating 5 out of 5]

The truth comes through

Great read. An objective look at the actual data on hurricanes hitting the US.

It was pretty clear that hurricanes are not statistically on the increase in numbers or intensity over the last 100 years. We just have more people building in the danger zones thus causing more damage.

Seems climate change isn't to blame. It's just the cycle of weather. Spend the money and give it a read. It was refreshing to see real scientific investigation at work.

[Mollie · Rating 5 out of 5]

Finally, some real science

This is a must read, especially for the younger generation with little or no real experience of major weather events and the limited education in real science presented in schools today.