I’ve come across my interest in waves honestly. In high school, my first big research paper was about biorhythms, using sine waves to predict mental, physical, and emotional peaks and valleys. I couldn’t tell if there was something really there, but I liked that patterns could be observed. And I’ve read earlier books and papers on using waves to predict markets, from Dent and Robert Prechter. I never found these totally convincing, but thought there might be something there. As I’ve been reading more books on all-too-human thinking, I have learned that people go out of their way to find patterns, even in randomness. As I read through Dent’s “Zero Hour,” I have that last thought in mind. Unfortunately, most of what Dent presents here looks to me to be perceived patterns instead of real patterns. Why would I say that? When one periodicity of a wave doesn’t fit some historic event, Dent adds another wave to the pantheon. Say you notice there are 72 years between the great crash of ’29 and the blowoff of the early 2000s. Dent then goes back another 72 years before the 1929 crash and sees a financial catastrophe had occurred. But there are other catastrophes that don’t occur in those times, so other “waves” that cause financial issues are posited. You end up with a good dozen or so waves of different periods – different lengths between lowpoints. Dent then presumes these all add up, so different waves hitting their low points at the same time mean something majorly bad happens or will happen in the future. Roughly 2/3 of this book is along these lines, pointing out time periods in the past or future where bad things could happen. One wave that is focused on is the periodicity of sunspots, and the authors take a stab at how changes in sunspots could impact events in finance, albeit not very convincingly. Much of the book, which appears to be written in early 2017, point to August of 2017 as being the start of a large decline in the markets. This didn’t happen. I kept looking to see if Dent was wishy-washy in this date, but he stuck to it throughout the book, although by the end he was giving a range of years, from 2017 through 2020, as being the bad years for finance, but always with a start date of August 2017. This miss in the main prediction really hurt the appeal this book originally had for me.
In addition, Dent writes quite a few anti-Trump comments. It appears he made the assumption that Trump would destroy the market soon after starting his presidency, and it appears that this book was Dent’s way to profit, pointing people to his newsletter for additional buy and sell signals and the like. Once again, this didn’t come true in the timeframe he suggested.
The wave parts of the book are written in a style I have seen in two places – emails from people trying to sell market advice and conspiracy books. The story becomes so convoluted, with different historic financial events brought up as supposed evidence of different cycles, then later discounted and described differently. And while I am not a historian, I have read quite a bit, and there are so many odd financial events mentioned that I have to wonder if any are made up, or were actually minor events, not of value as evidence. The goal here seems to be to confuse the reader. That worked! The prose is mostly that breathless, I-gotta-tell-you-about-this-way-to-make-money kind of speech that you hear on a financial network when someone is selling something. There are a lot of short teases of what’s coming up, like a mention of Jack Stack three or four times before actually telling a story about him. And there are plenty of mentions of Dent’s newsletter along the way. If you are looking for science, look elsewhere.
There were parts of the book that didn't lean on waves. Dent talks about suggestions of things that needs to be changed in the US to avoid financial catastrophy. Not a bad list. The last third of the book I liked, although I didn’t spend the time to look at the research. Here, Dent mostly drops the cycle theories he’s talked about earlier in the book and has written comparing countries in urbanization rates and GDP, estimating future growth in countries to invest in. He also talks about commodities, suggesting specific ones to invest in. The commodity discussion seems more related to waves again… I was disheartened to see in the country evaluations that there were multiple obvious editorial errors, like calling Indonesia India at one point and quoting a very different number from a referenced chart that called out the correct number. Proofreading was needed here, and the lack of attention to detail makes me discount the “evidence” and “logic” displayed here even more. I had a hard time deciding if I would give this a single star or two on Goodread's scale. I found parts interesting, so I settled on two. Although I really want to see those wave patterns in financial charts, I think this will be the last Dent book I read.