Without America: Australia in the New Asia

Quarterly Essay #68

by Hugh White

America is fading, and China will soon be the dominant power in our region. What does this mean for Australia's future?

In this controversial and urgent essay, Hugh White shows that the contest between America and China is classic power politics of the harshest kind. He argues that we are heading for an unprecedented future, one without an English-speaking great and powerful friend to keep us secure and protect our interests.

White sketches what the new Asia will look like, and how China could use its power. He also examines what has happened to the United States globally, under both Barack Obama and Donald Trump – a series of setbacks which Trump's bluster on North Korea cannot disguise.

White notes that we have got into the habit of seeing the world through Washington's eyes, and argues that unless this changes, we will fail to navigate the biggest shift in Australia's international circumstances since European settlement. The signs of failure are already clear, as we risk sliding straight from complacency to panic.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics, Essays, Current Affairs, Australia

112 pages, Paperback

First published November 27, 2017

About the author

Librarian Note: There is more than one author in the Goodreads database with this name.

Hugh White (born 1953) is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre of the Australian National University in Canberra, Australia, long time defence and intelligence analyst, and author who has published works on military strategy and international relations. He was Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Australian Department of Defence from 1995 until 2000 and was the inaugural Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). (Source: Wikipedia)

Reviews

[Lisa · Rating 4 out of 5]

here is no doubt that this latest Quarterly Essay is deeply depressing to read. Without America is unequivocal about the fading power of America and that we in Australia face the prospect of China becoming the dominant power in our region. You don’t have to be xenophobic to fear this: it’s a straightforward matter of China not sharing the democratic values that we are used to. We are used to having democratic elections, freedom of speech, freedom from censorship, the rule of law, judicial independence and the end of capital punishment many decades ago. Chinese authoritarianism isn’t going to suit the larrikin Australian character at all.
But what this QE makes clear is that Australia has had its head in the sand. Obama’s ‘pivot’ was a failure but we believed it because we liked and admired Obama. We’ve been backing America as a reliable ally when all along it’s been demonstrating that it its strategy in Asia is failing, while at the same time we’ve been relying on China for our economic survival. The mantra that we do not need to choose between China and America is would be laughable if things were not serious: we often need to choose, and not having an intelligent, coherent and bipartisan strategy is not helping us to negotiate our way in uncharted territory. Even before Trump, American foreign policy towards China was nonsense.
Instead of hiding our collective heads in the sand, what we need to do is to strengthen our ties in southeast Asia, and we need to ensure that Indonesia in particular becomes a strategic asset rather than a liability in the new Asia. It will be the fifth biggest economy in the world by 2030, and still we send journalists there when they don’t have a word of Indonesian to interpret what’s going on. (Indeed, I suspect that the last Australian journalist to speak a local neighbourhood language was Sean Dorney reporting on Papua New Guinea). Indonesia is our biggest and most powerful neighbour, and there are worrying signs of the erosion of democratic reforms and the slide towards authoritarianism and away from secularism yet it remains a mystery to us*. India is also vitally important to us because it also has a vested interest in limiting China’s power, but the best we can do on Australian TV is repeats of Joanna Lumley’s excruciatingly Raj-ridden travelogues.
To read the rest of my review please visit https://anzlitlovers.com/2018/09/15/w...

[Ron Brown · Rating 5 out of 5]

Quarterly Essay – Without America. Australia in the new Asia. By Hugh White.

The Quarterly Essay is a ‘must read’ booklet that is published four times a year. The December 2017 No. 68 edition is Hugh White’s review of Australia’s relationship with China while considering the diminishing role of American power and the disturbing statements from the American president about that country’s role in world affairs.
This is White’s second Quarterly Essay on Australia’s changing relationships with China. He has published and broadcasted about this matter often.
White’s thesis is that Australia will need to take a more independent stand in its relationship with China. We are a close ally of USA but we have strong and important economic links with China. We need to prepare ourselves for the role our country is to take as the USA/China relationship evolves over the coming years.
Like so many informed commentators White is dismissive of Trump as a leader, “…the other side is the blustering, thin skinned erratic egocentric who seems perfectly capable of taking America to war on a whim.” Nevertheless, he acknowledges that the world is stuck with him for at least the next three years.
White worries, as do many of us, that Trump’s impulsiveness could lead America into an unwanted military conflict in the Far East, and other places for that matter.
White is uncertain how long Trump will be President and what irreparable damage he might do to the office of the POTUS. I believe that if he chooses to run in 2020 he will be defeated. The recent results in the Senate election in Alabama and the governorship elections in Virginia and New Jersey have shown a turning in American electoral behaviour. Our calendars should have November 6 2018 clearly marked. The midterm elections will be the main indicator.
Nevertheless, the Australian government needs to deal with the situation as it exists. Malcolm Turnbull has tried to ingratiate himself with Trump by saying that Australia would invoke the ANZUS treaty if there was conflict with North Kore. The prime minister needs to be very careful here. What happens if the USA attacks North Korea?
It is a difficult situation. Australia needs to support the US in such forums as the UN but needs to be cautious because of the unpredictability of Trump.
Australians have a low opinion of Trump and I believed that if the LNP tried to involve Australia in a war of Trump’s making it would suffer a serious political reaction from the electorate.
White is critical of Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” a policy that was formally articulated by US President Barack Obama in a speech to the Australian parliament on 17 November 2011. He argues that it was a half-hearted attempt to move the focus of American foreign policy away from the Middle East to the more important East Asian scene. It was nothing more than a declaration of intent and the modest measures, such as deployment of Marines to Darwin, had little impact.
I would argue that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the rise of ISIS was another factor in the failure of the Obama’s administration to put substance in the Pivot policy.
The venue for conflict is centred on the South China Sea, China’s establishment of islands and then the construction of bases has led to conflict over freedom of navigation in this area. In July, 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against China’s claims in the South China Sea. The Chinese Government, like most powerful nations, ignored the ruling. It will be interesting to watch how South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia deal with the rising tensions in the South China Sea.
There is greater risk that North Korea will be the place where Chinese/American conflict occurs. Trump does not seem to understand the complexities of the relationship between North Korea and China. Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping have never met. China does not have the sway over North Korea that Trump believes it has and finally, it is not in China’s interest for there to be a collapse in the existing regime or for armed conflict to start. What would China’s reaction be if Trump ordered a military strike on Kim Jong Un? Would history repeat itself vis a vis October 1950?
Trump’s recent tweets accusing China of exporting oil to North Korea will not help. China just loves being abused and berated by Western countries!!
Some have argued that these two great powers are facing the ‘Thucydides trap,’ where war becomes inevitable as a rising power challenges an established power. Let’s hope that nuclear weapons have made Thucydides trap redundant.
White argues that for too long our political leaders have refused to even contemplate the question, “Who do we choose? America or China?” In the not too distant future Australia will have to deal with this vexing issue.
There is no clear yes/no answer but until our leaders lead a discussion we will not be prepared to adapt to this new world order.
On reading this text and then observing the political reaction to the Sam Dastyari fiasco it is interesting to reflect on Australians’ perspective of China and its people. I recently read comments on a Facebook posting about Chinese companies buying into regional airports. I was struck by the ill-informed, and at times, blatantly racist views held by many Australians towards the Chinese.
I wonder if many Australians ever consider the positive impact that our trading relationship with China has on their standard of living?
White concludes his essay by discussing the possibility of Australia acquiring nuclear weapons. He claims that if China did in future seek a truly oppressive hegemony where it imposed its system and values on Australia then nuclear weapons could be an option.
At this point I think White needs to refer to Chinese history. Where has China ever sort hegemonic control over distant lands? Yes, China has annexed Tibet, has claims over Taiwan and has the occasional border dispute with India but even at its zenith of power China has never sort an empire. It is more of a wall builder than a conqueror.
Today the Chinese Government is interested in making China an economic power house coupled with the appropriate development of its armed forces but it has no interest in furthering its political dominance elsewhere in the world. The regime is often worried more about its own populace then controlling over lands. China spends more money on policing its own people (769billion yuan) than on its defence (740 billion yuan.)
We often read of American exceptionalism. The Chinese have a similar view of themselves, their country, their culture and their history. The Mandarin word for ‘China’ is ‘Zhonggou’ which means Middle Kingdom (or sometimes translated as Central Kingdom.) The Chinese believe that their country is the ‘centre’ of the world. But this ethnocentrism does not translate into wanting world dominance.
I would argue that White is wrong when he says Chinese primacy would pose a mortal threat to Australia’s interests and identity. We do not need a powerful friend to protect us from China. He underestimates our cultural and social strengths and overestimates China’s ability to dominate.
China may want a Pax Sinica in East Asia but it will be based on the desire to have peace, trade and stability not hegemonic domination.
The United States has sixty alliances. China has none. No, North Korea does not have a treaty with China. Pakistan is about the only sizeable country with whom China has friendly relations.
So, does Australia need to choose between China and USA? Is this a question being asked in South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia?
White closes his essay by saying, “Let’s get on with it.” I disagree. From my studying of the principles of leadership I found that at times the best decision was no decision. Sometimes subsequent events make the decision for you. This is the case with our relationship with USA and China.
I think that if China was to be too aggressive in its foreign policy, such as an invasion of Taiwan then Australia would be forced to ally itself fully with America.
There are too many cultural and social differences between Australia and China for a seamless relationship to develop and although there are over a million people of Chinese descent living in Australia the fact that we are a vibrant democracy and China a one-party authoritarian society would place limits on how close the relationship could become.
So, what should Australia do to ensure its stability? Undoubtedly have a well- equipped defence force structured to defend our shores. Develop close cultural and educational ties with all of our Asian neighbours. Give strong support to the study of Asian languages in our schools and universities. Set up a government sponsored program for the interchange of Australian students to study in Asian universities and Asian students to study in Australian universities. Support our developing neighbours with foreign aid. Place greater emphasis on our diplomatic and economic relationships with Asian countries. Be confident and respectfully assertive in our dealings with China. We have common interests and can gain much from a close and trusting relationship.
Where I think White is very much on the ball is his criticism of the failure of our leaders to instil confidence and assuredness in ourselves. As he says it is not complicated we just need a prime minister, a foreign minister or the opposition equivalent to have the courage to say a few things that everyone knows, deep down, to be true. I would add to that the need for those in the media to step up to be presenting informed opinion and information on Australia’s need to adjust to this new order.
I highly recommend this publication as it discusses an issue of vital importance to Australia and we need as many contributing to the debate.

[Timothy Dymond · Rating 3 out of 5]

Should Australia get a nuclear weapon? Yeah, nah, but maybe, according to Hugh White’s Quarterly Essay. One of the reasons that Australia can (unironically) call itself a lucky country is because it has not really needed to have a foreign policy. That will change. Where once Australia could just ‘fit’ neatly into the British, then American hegemonies in Asia, China’s rise means Australia’s political elites will have to take foreign affairs seriously. By seriously White means an independent stance will be thrust upon our politicians. But those politicians and policymakers, according to White, are intellectually ill-equiped to handle such a challenge. They are the ‘second rate’ leaders that Donald Horne referred to in the original (ironically titled) ‘Lucky Country’.

For all that foreign policy wonk writers pride themselves on being hard-hitting realists, there is a lot of vague language in their writing. Words such as ‘will’, ‘resolve’, ‘determination’, ‘conviction’, ‘leadership’, are tossed around as if they meant something specific. Actually they are as vague a reference as ‘using the force’. White complains that the US has long lacked the ‘resolve’ to project itself in Asia. He is scathing about the Obama administration’s ‘pivot to Asia’ - condemning it as a platitude that barely changed anything (except to make China more ‘determined’ to assert itself). The Trump administration seems to combine the worst aspects of wanting to pull the US out of the region, and being prepared to start a major war on a whim. However White also provides plenty of evidence to show that the US has no real material interest in remaining as an Asian power. China, meanwhile, is not only ‘in’ Asia, but has a long history of regarding itself ‘as’ Asia. Australia may feel more comfortable having a Western (cough *white* cough) hegemon to whom we can comfortably submit, but it ain’t going to last much longer. Indeed Australia’s refusal to face up to clearly changing circumstances means our leaders missed an opportunity to leverage our status as a US ally to lobby for a more managed US decline in Asia from which we could benefit.

Despite describing all this as the ‘biggest shift in Australia’s international circumstances since European settlement’, White is short on ideas on how to deal with it. He proposes general measures to reduce the influence of China on Australia’s domestic politics (e.g. banning overseas political donations). He also suggests we rethink our approach to defending the Australian mainland - by increasing our sea and air defences. Acquiring nuclear weapons would provide us with the ultimate credible deterrent - unless something goes wrong! White is scared by some of the implications of his own suggestions - but his overall point is that nobody in Australian politics is prepared to discuss these issues at all. Instead there is a bipartisan mantra that Australia ‘does not have to choose’ between the US and China. That formulation pleases neither the US, nor China. It is only a reassuring fairy story for Australia to tell itself.

[Nancy · Rating 5 out of 5]

#DealMeIn2018
40 years ago Australia managed a 'post-alliance' transition with Britain.
Now Australia's task in the next few years will be...doing the same with America!
China’s rise is a fact and isn’t going away.
This will require Australia to rethink a lot of things,
to make some hard choices, and perhaps to pay some heavy costs.
#ExcellentMustRead essay!

Review

[Mitchell · Rating 4 out of 5]

An examination of Australia's future in the Asia-Pacific as the United States continues its post-Cold War disengagement as the region's dominant power. White is fairly confident that the United States will continue on this course, because the costs already outweigh the benefits, and will only grow larger as China continues to heft its muscle. That then leaves Australia in the position of existing in Asia without a larger global power to protect us - unprecedented in our history.

Plenty of people would chalk concern about Chinese dominance up to xenophobia, but I doubt this concern would be remotely as widespread if free democracies like Japan or India were the rising stars - it's not the country but the Communist Party that's the issue. It's impossible for any sensible Australian to view the prospect of Chinese regional dominance with anything other than trepidation, particularly given how short-sighted and incompetent our leaders over the past few years have been on issues of far lesser importance.

[Andrew Saul · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a two part rating. The easy itself is one star. It's not badly written it just seems pointless. I don't think the writer is to blame, it's an Australian obsession with global politics that's at fault. Whilst it's fine to be interested in global affairs unless you have some particular insight/experience in a matter (and studying it at university doesn't count) then you can't write an opinion piece such as this about it. Unfortunately this is what has happened here and I honestly gave up reading halfway through and skimmed the rest.

Then second part of the book is the correspondence from the previous essay; Moral Panic 101. This is 5 star. Read it and the Moral Panic 101 essay.

[K · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fantastic! White clearly lays out the challenges facing Australia in relation to China, grounded in a history of power politics and activity in the region. he discusses America's increasing detachment from Asia as a priority, including Obama's failed Pivot, and speculates along a range of vectors what Australia's relationship with China could look like over the next few decades. It's complicated stuff, but White explains his concepts and presents his arguments clearly.
A great primer on the key issues at play and well worth the read.

[Marko Bogicevic · Rating 5 out of 5]

A very insightful piece, challenging Australia's foreign policy approach. Hugh presents an enjoyable read, providing an important historic lens on Australia's role as a sidekick to first the British and then American Empires in the Asia Pacific. Many of his ideas were novel, while his critiques did not fear from political pressure. I truly hope those more powerful have had a chance to digest this content, particularly as it seems that our position in Asia, and impending subservient relationship with China, has changed drastically in the past 2 years.

[Robert Henderson · Rating 5 out of 5]

A fascinating and sobering read, very clearly written with zero weasel words. The USA is abandoning Asia, China has won, how we deal with the future will require great leadership in Australia, which we haven't had for many, many years. The prospect of war is a very real one but we all seem to pretend the USA is here to stay. Even under Obama they only delivered lip service. Under Trump there's no way they'll go to war to save Taiwan.

[Sam Schroder · Rating 4 out of 5]

An insightful read about the very different world order unfolding before our eyes. Another fascinating and educational read. I love the Quarterly Essay for a weekend long read that teaches me something so different each quarter (even if it does take me most of the three months to get around to reading it! I’m pretty sure the next one will be here any day). Well worth the subscription cost. Highly recommended.

[Annie · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very interesting essay looking at Australia's position in Asia Pacific if the US continues to retreat while China gains more power. What will this region look like 5 years from now? What is our foreign policy going to look like?

Looking forward to reading the correspondence to this paper in the next issue.

[Bill Brown · Rating 4 out of 5]

An insightful essay, highlighting the diminishing Western influence in Asia with America slowing relinquishing power due to the dominance of China in East Asia and the Pacific. White urges our politicians to accept this fate and shift our foreign policy approach to address the change in regional power, posing the question of how Australia should respond to the Asia Pacific controlled by China.

[Loki · Rating 5 out of 5]

A searching look at Australia's choices in an Asia transformed by Chinese advance and American retreat - and the rather distressing incapacity of our political leadership over the last two decades to deal with it well, or even honestly.

[Leslie Nyen · Rating 4 out of 5]

Geopolitics is a complex issue. I do think that there are good points on both sides of the argument, and I would like to read about/ listen to both sides to gain the perspectives. It is scary that great powers fighting can influence a huge island (or continent) so far away. It's whether preparing for war with increasing the military and sea bases together with land grabbing islands or setting international policies that are biassed towards one side.

[Martin Dunn · Rating 5 out of 5]

Now nearly five years old, and a lot has been happening with Australia's relationship with the United States and China - in particular, the references to the Trump presidency are not current. Nevertheless, White's realist analysis of US-China relations still provides grounds to pause and think.

[Phil Devereux · Rating 4 out of 5]

Reading this essay I was most struck by the fact that these are issues I've almost never thought about, though that's not entirely surprising given they've never been part of our national dialogue in a meaningful way. Despite White's somewhat alarmist tone, he definitely raises some thoughtful and apparently very necessary questions about Australia's geopolitical place in what is virtually assured to be an America-less Asia in the coming decades. Worth reading!

[Jennifer · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very thought provoking essay.